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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Brett
Unregistered




Re: Correction
      #5411 - Thu Sep 26 2002 12:35 PM

Agree Steve. I do think its gonna make a difference (as the NHC does) whether she gets back together quick or not, in terms of her going more North sooner. Why is beyond me, but I'll buy it. If she gets her act together, and (as it already appears) she drifts a bit more North, I don't think she is gonna follow Izzy. I think she just may head right through Cuba as a TS, and then sit in the Bahamas for a bit.

Although I do have a tendency to wishcast, I am not doing so here. The ridge many models have building to her north, on the east coast, is what has me believing she may strengthen in the Bahamas if she stalls there. The next day is important in her final track, methinks.

What do you all think of Bastardi's comment about Kyle coming into play?


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Correction
      #5412 - Thu Sep 26 2002 01:08 PM

Not sure Brett, seems kinda stretching it a bit, Joe is, but it could happen. Depends on the extent and strength of the ridge. Looks like lili's closing off to the South of Port-au-Prince. Keep a watchful eye on her. She may come for a visit on Monday> CHeers!!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Nears
      #5413 - Thu Sep 26 2002 01:27 PM

Apparently Tropical Weather Watcher and East coast tropical weather sites must have given up on all the action , that leaves this site alone in providing thought provoking comments and invaluable information about the tropics. Of course I forgot Bastardi's column however we'll be loosing that anyway soon. Can't begin to say how good this site is so won't even try.Am in the process of contacting State Farm Ins to find out why my rates are skyrocketing while So Florida is so well protected by troughs etc. No significant damage has occured in 50 years in my area. One further thought , anyone who has been to Mexico knows the quality of the shacks people live in down there. If only 6 people were killed in this storm how does the media come to the conclusion of huge death numbers in this country from a similar level storm. It's all hype.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Nears
      #5414 - Thu Sep 26 2002 02:51 PM

The storm was only a cat 3. While bad, the damage growth from 3 to 4 to 5 is an exponential curve. Plus, with proper warnings, folks can take pletny of protections. The housing in mexico is not really as shabby as what you seem to think. Truthfully, with some of the corrupt builders and inspectors in South Florida, a lot of the Mexican buildings are better built!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




insurance costs
      #5415 - Thu Sep 26 2002 03:25 PM

I don't think it's the death toll that insurance companies are concerned about. Rather, it is the cost to rebuild homes and businesses that are damaged by torrential rains and hurricane force winds. The toll in the Yucatan is extremely high. We rarely get hit with hurricanes in the Florida pennensula. There have been litterally thousands of buildings built since any storm has hit except Andrew in South Florida. I'm not an insurance company apologist but I'm sure the toll of damage from a major storm will be in the billions of dollars even if the loss of life is not high. They will take advantage of any perceived risk to increase their premiums. On that you can bank.

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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Kyle
      #5416 - Thu Sep 26 2002 03:31 PM

Check out the 2pm tropical model coordinates for Kyle at 48 & 72 hours:
_______48 HOURS____72 HOURS
BAMD 25.3N 66.2W 25.8N 71.1W
BAMM 26.1N 62.4W 26.0N 64.9W
A98E 24.1N 62.8W 22.4N 64.7W
LBAR 25.6N 61.1W 24.3N 59.8W

Interesting--aren't those significantly farther west, and more westward movement between 48 and 72 hours, than previous runs, or am I not remembering correctly?

I certainly hope that's not the start of a new trend, and that LBAR turns out to be closest to the truth. Any analysis from experienced forecasters?

-Brad


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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: Kyle--not as big a change as I thought
      #5417 - Thu Sep 26 2002 03:39 PM

OK, looked back, and here's the westward drift in the models from 8 am to 2 pm runs:

BAMD: about 3.5 degrees (just approximations--looking at 8 am plots, not numbers)
BAMM: about 2.2 degrees
A98E: about 1.4 degrees
LBAR: 2+ degrees, but moving SE in both runs

Not as big a change as I thought - I guess I looked at BAMD first and focused on that.


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Kyle
      #5418 - Thu Sep 26 2002 03:43 PM

The BMAD takes Kyle 790 miles WSW, BAMM 400 miles to the WSW and the A98E 525 SSW. That A98E forecast looks like what Bastardi was talking about this morning.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
      #5419 - Thu Sep 26 2002 05:28 PM

Local TV (WLOX TV 13) in Biloxi interviewed me this afternoon to discuss the storm tidal surge and pier debris in from of my house.... Pretty much told them what I posted on board early this morning about how high the tide got, watching the storm in my lawn chair and seeing the pier wash up... yada yada yada..... they said it would air the interview tonight on the 10:00 edition of the news (CDT)

Probably won't be 15 minutes but 60 seconds at best...

Female interviewing me was really NICE!..... hehe


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
      #5420 - Thu Sep 26 2002 05:42 PM

Eyes? LOL

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
      #5421 - Thu Sep 26 2002 06:24 PM

hey frank p, good deal. doesnt look like anything bad came out of izzy for you.
thoughts on the other stuff:
lili is alive but not classified.. you can see it is a closed low on satelite. if i'm not mistaken a closed tropical low generating winds of a certain magnitude is a tropical depression, but theres no following the NHC conventions sometimes. what is it rad likes to say.. if it aint broke, dont fix it?
official on kyle is for very, very little movement through 72. i think this is more or less correct, but probably be a little further south and west than indicated. BAMD is just a little too over the top for me.
so much for izzy. gave us two weeks of tracking, and a pretty good scare for a while.. but, the usual. ssdd.
kyle and lili are iffy in terms of ever being a real threat, yet persist. almost october now. if dr. gray is (was?) to be believed, october/november will yield but one storm. basin shear sure does seem to have picked up in the last few days.. whether this is just transitional or el niņo is having it's way finally.. we'll see. still think that pattern swings will give us western caribbean activity around mid/late october.
HF 2226z26september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
also..
      #5422 - Thu Sep 26 2002 06:38 PM

that nasa interactive closeup satelite is really nifty. you can really pinpoint things with it.. this pertains to lili. here's my philosophy: the nature of the system, sheared as it is, has been to have a broad circulation open on the west side, and have it temporarily tighten into a small vortex whenever convection is bursting on the east side. ive been seeing this for days.. a small vortex will emerge from the west side, seem to loop under.. then another will run out as the convection cycles. maybe it's the same little thing doing cycloid loops over and over within the broader circulation.. not saying i know. but this is what it's essentially been all along.. now that it's not racing and loses the translational motion supercharged flight level winds.. they have dropped it to a 'tropical wave'. i do think that some exception needs to be made for cases such as this.
anyhow, still cant say if this will ever organize.. not only has it been consistently nudging its way into the retreating, now reorganizing upper trough.. but its own anticyclone has been lagging back and adding to the southerly shear.
should be near jamaica tomorrow. interaction with land might break the status quo.. whether that be to cause the center to redevelop in a better place or just kill it outright.
HF 2240z26september


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
      #5423 - Thu Sep 26 2002 06:48 PM

Here is my quick take on the three systems:
Isidore: Done for as a tropical system. Just beginning as an extratropical rainmaker.

Lili: She looks like crap tonight. The low pressure area is still to the west of all of the convection, which btw, looks to be sheared and even dissipating some. Survival is very iffy at this point. I'll give her a shot of regeneration in a few days.

Kyle: No one really wants to take him seriously, and we don't have to until he proves he can survive under 30-40 knot shear for 48 to 60 hours. Doesn't look like trough will pick him up, but shear is going to slap him silly. If he can survive he may just go due west under developing ridge and intensify. You know what that means....yeah, it means wait and see if he can survive the shear. We'll take it from there.

African wave train has been declared dead for 2002. W. Caribbean/GOMEX could breed some storms in October...shear will determine whether these are weak little TS's or if we can add a minimal hurricane or two to the list.

Kevin


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Cane/HF
      #5424 - Thu Sep 26 2002 07:07 PM

Caneman.... yeah, among other a couple of other things, hehe

HF... all in all not bad... everyone really surprised with the height of the surge, me included... probably a lot more damage than was anticipated, all water related, numerous business south of 90 had 2-3 feet of water in them.. should all be cleaned up in a couple of days... winds probably did little if any damage... maybe a few shinges blown off roofs but that's about it...

Elena had an 8 foot surge... got to the base of the seawall in from of my house... Izzy got to second step and water was splashing onto the highway... this is the first time since Camille that this has happened in my area.... surreal seeing water that high, piers strewn all over the place, and water splashing onto the road

Final note: Izzy didn't reach hurricane status relative to wind strenght, but it CERTAINLY did relative to storm surge in my area... he put on a darn good show for me. As TS goes, I have to give him an A+ for sure

One thing for sure.... this web site is one of the best for storm information, analysis, and forecasting opinions...


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Wave train dead
      #5425 - Thu Sep 26 2002 07:43 PM

Don't think so..latest wave off the coast exploded when it got to the water,,,may be one more system there.

IHS,

Bill

been a long two days!


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Wave train dead
      #5426 - Thu Sep 26 2002 07:49 PM

Bill: Make sure you look on latest E ATL IR image, convection over water is fizzling while convection over land is still going. That convection will fizzle when it hits water though. Wave train is dead, I'll leave it at that.

Kevin


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Isidore Nears
      #5427 - Thu Sep 26 2002 08:45 PM

strong wave off africa hasnt weakened.

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Isidore Nears
      #5428 - Thu Sep 26 2002 08:50 PM

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200209261800AI3_g.jpg

african wave looks better than it did earlier.


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Izzy IS history
      #5429 - Thu Sep 26 2002 09:49 PM

Three words for NHC:
RETIRE THAT NAME!
If not for three landfalls, all with enough effect to make all who were touched by him never forget his name as long as they live....
If not for the fact that he reached Cat4, but you wouldn't call it so......
Then at least retire him for the fact that he made forecast models look like &%!#, never went the direction YOU said he was moving (N=W opps, sorry cuba, W=S opps, really sorry yucatan, NW=N he's all yours la), and caused me to lose a week and a half's worth of sleep watching (and feeling, 5 in of rain in 6 hrs is not your normal rainstorm) him do all of the above.

RETIRE THAT NAME!!

The storm formally known as Lili shows another burst of life tonight E of Jamaica.......if this was just starting up, everybody would be getting all excited, but Lili, were tired of the tease act. Time to show us something more than a burst to the NE, it's becoming a old movie this year.

Kyle, what's up with you? Rumor has it you might get down into an interesting lat+lon, again if you were coming from the west, everybody would be excited, but approach PR from the north? Can you handle the shear coming at you, guy? How much longer can you stay out there and not fall apart?

Great posts from everybody in the GOM and beyond. Rickinmobile, man if you want a Cat5 in Mobile, you might want to buy a few more things to go with the beer, or at least buy more beer so when Lyons says "it heading for Mobile!" you won't believe him.

Joe in JAX


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Izzy IS history
      #5430 - Thu Sep 26 2002 10:09 PM

i see people talking nonsense now..

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