Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Here's the writeup for the discussion. Maybe I was a little east in what I was seeing?
MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EXTREME W
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW OVER LOUISIANA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE CLOSED LOW AS
WELL AS A GENEROUS PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY WET PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE E GLFMEX AND
FLORIDA WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SE COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS HAS
SHIFTED W...AWAY FROM FLORIDA...OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX AS THE
UPPER LOW RETREATS NWD OVER THE S UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT IS AIDING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SUNSHINE STATE. A GRADUAL DRYING PATTERN WILL BEGIN OVER FLORIDA
TOMORROW. DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD. FURTHER W...CONFLUENT
FLOW AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 90W IS KEEPING THE W
GLFMEX CONVECTION FREE.
Steve
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Is'nt it strange how back in the early days before the technology of today IE satelites,radar,models,etc...hurricanes were much more frequent,you use to have multiple hits in prone and other areas almost every year,2 or 3 years in a row as if the hurricane knew that no one was watching and it could sneak up on the population.Ever since the age of modern technology you dont see that very often,certainly not as often as in the past,I've been reading about 2 hurricanes hitting the same area only 9 days apart & other crazy unbelievable stories that just does'nt happen anymore,so maybe these storms do indeed have a pesonality.
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Question for the group.
Some believe that we are starting to see a turn around in out lacking El Nino.
I would like to read your-alls thoughts on the matter.
As we get closer to August a weak or non-exsistant El Nino
is supposed to have a adverse effect to our weather patterns here on the main land. Is El Nino starting to get its act together?
|
Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
|
|
Well in my opinion & I must say I am not a MET.,but in my opinion El Nino will be a minimal factor if any factor at all this season,first check out the SST's of the equatorial coast of South America they are still cooling at this time & running 4 to 5 degrees below normal & at times expanding westward, 2.the WPAC is very quiet as far as Tropical Storms & Hurricanes go,unusual for this time of year & even more unusual in a so called developing El Nino event, 3.the monsoon rains in India are above normal this year another sign that El Nino is either in its extremely early stages or basically not there at all.However the Pros over at NOAA expect some sort of weak to moderate El Nino event developing but it should not reach its maximum strengnth until late fall,for now EL Nino is EL Nowhere.
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
Hi Steve,
I think the footage you saw may be from Sunday. That was the night it took me 1 1/2 hours to get home and I almost floated my car on Powerline Rd.
It's rained here everyday, including today, but not nearly as profound as Sunday.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Today there nothing to watch and the atlantic and there alot of wind shear and upper lows around. There was a tropical low and the eastern atlantic and it died no we got a upper low and the gulf of mexico and the storm and the b.o.c didn't form like I said because of the upper leavel low and the shear for a time it had some outflow but it was killed. the winds and dry air will kill any thing that try to form. forecast no tropical storm intill the late July first hurricane mid August. I'm also thinking that this season could be a quit one intill late August and there the chance that this season even then could be slow with the cold sea water and the easter atlantic will almost kill any wave low or storm trys to from and the eastern atlantic. There chances as it look wright now that the eastern atlantic will kil most wave in this year and the storms that try to form will most likely be upper lows late season and thunderstorms. I think that one hurricane two tropical storms will form of of waves but that changes the forecast october will more likely be the hurricne season this year and november there will be thunderstorm areas 2 hurricane will form form this and on tropical storm upper low 2 more hurricanes will form and 1 more tropical storm. I think 1 hurricane land fall and the gulf states and 2 more and the gulf states. 2 tropical storms will try to make a ran at the east coast. Mexico will see a weaker storm of a mitch and 2 storms will move northeast and die and the atlantic.
forecast
8 tropical storms
4 hurricanes
1or 2 maj hurricanes
forecast made by Matthew
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
leave the tropical updates to the Hurricane Center!!!!!!!!
|
Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
|
|
 Are u drunk?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I'm not druk `
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
>>leave the tropical updates to the Hurricane Center!!!!!!!!
That's real gutsy considering you didn't even own up to your own post. You must have known it sucked. I'd rather read Matthew's opinion 50 times than an ignorant comment like that. It's a tropical board, and people post what they see or think. That can't be such a foreign concept since you found your way to the thread. If you want the 's opinion, go read it over there, don't knock someone for posting what they think here. This site is for weather buffs, not for trolls or wimpy flamewars. Plus, you don't want a piece of me anyway.
As for as the El Nino, I think it is starting to come around, but outside of some above normal SST's off of the coast of Peru, there hasn't been much influence. The last SSTA map I saw was 6/18 and it had warmed up since early June relative to normal. I guess a new one came out today, but I haven't looked at it yet. I don't expect El Nino to be a major factor whether it peters out or grows a little stronger - say into a weak event. Many have suggested it might peak toward the end of the year which would only have the effect of warming my winter - a pleasant thought - or killing any late season activity in the western Atlantic or Gulf.
Steve
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Hey all..back from vacation in GA...at least we didn't have to use canoes to get around, LOL. It was a lot of fun.
Hey Anon-you don't want to mess around here. People come here to give their OPINIONS on what they see based on the satellite images and other information available. We use each other as learning tools, posting our opinions, someone may give us a reason why it may be wrong, or, occasionally right, and we enjoy chitchatting with each other during the slow times of the season.
If you want an OFFICIAL UPDATE, then stick to the like Steve said, or just don't bother coming here at all. First of all, you won't last, and second of all and most importantly, this is a forum (read: discussion thread) where we share our thoughts with each other. There is a disclaimer at the bottom of this page that says this is NOT an official site, it's for WEATHER HOBBIESTS. GET IT?
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
Well said,Steve. I have made some pretty stupid posts on here so if anyone deserves to be bashed it should be me. Now, with all that aside, there is a build up of storms in the gulf again this morning and as I am posting this the activity continues to grow.I don't believe it will turn into a tropical system, but there sure is quite a bit of moisture out there and as it builds it seems to be building more and more to the west. I hope this trend continues because it could set up for a pretty wet weekend here in my area; and we really need it. That being said, with the SST's as warm as they are, you never know what may happen but I'm still going to bet against it. Any thoughts? 
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
Hey Greyman.
Looks like you're getting the rain today.
Do you have symptoms of Seasonal Affective Disorder yet?
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
It looks like the tentacles are stretching my way for a big rain day. I was hoping to log on and see something from Frank P. It looks like the Central MS Coast (Harrison to western Jackson Co.) got 4-5" of rain overnight. I think what's in the Gulf today is that reverse eddy stuff Joe B. talks about alot just beyond the eastern side of an upper low. It is definitely building and will probably mean a few inches of rain for me today. But these types of eddys and also some of the feeds have been going like this all week. They have been strongest in the daytime and weaker during the overnight hours. But the strongest storms and highest cloudtops continue to propagate westward. As to whether they start firing directly over Houston (or just offshore of Galveston or the Golden Triangle area) will depend on whether the ULL continues to move NW. I think today's also has something to do with a split flow around the east side of the low and the west side of the high over the SE.
I'm going out on the limb and guessing we get 3.25" today and minor street flooding in some of the areas that always flood.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
I have not made my way to the loops yet, however, if memory serves me correctly, those big cumulous clouds in the sky that are currently building over my house would lead me to think that MORE rain is on the way. Yesterday, my rain gauge showed 1/4" of rain. I think most of it fell south of us. Today, though, we had a nice, sunny hot morning which I am sure added to the already juicy atmosphere.
FRANK P!!! WHERE ARE YOU???
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
rickinatlanta
Unregistered
|
|
still think, as I posted earlier, that there will be late activity, and that nothing of mention will develop till August...but of course, the occassional suprise should keep us glued to this great site.
forecaster and weather hobbiests all agree we are entering a period of greater activity, such as what occurred earlier this century. The gulf coast,and all the build-up there...is a sitting duck.
The theory I studied has to do with methane hydrates, which are compounds, that the "expert" thought had a great impact on the strength of hurricanes. As he theorized, the hurricanes are as a much an electrical phenomenon, as warm waters and low pressure areas....all are important to get one cranking up. He had predicted hurricane Mitch, whose late season intensity (at a point was a cat 5) was due to river runoff, sediments and all, into the waters. The delay in the runoff due to man made dams, causes the delayed season. If one studies the unbelievable dam that the Chinese are building, in his view, it is another man made thing that is distorting weather patterns on a global scale.
I am no genuis..but do love to read...and I think this bears some interesting things to look ahead to....
so the conclusion? late season intense hurricanes...
he called himself Mike Hydrate...and posted on the weather channel forum
|
Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
|
|
Hello BabyCat,yep more rain,what else is new,this morning just before 7:00 am,I was awakened to the sound of thunder crashing & very heavy rain,needless to say it was an adventure gettin out of here but I'm use to it by now.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Raining so much over here on the MS coast I'm starting to get my web feet back... Got pounded big time this morning with about 2-3 inches of rain in about 45 minutes... Been raining most of afternoon at work today and we got about another 1/2 inch to add to the totals ... Heck, I think its rained every day over here for the past 5-6 days...
Been so busy today not had much time to check out the tropics. Looks like Shawn and the Tx/La coast may be in store for some rain looking at the latest GOM IR if the system moves inland...... Pretty good IR pix this afternoon with some deep convection. Not informed enought to predict what, if any, this area might be prone to do... Probably nothing... may have time tonight to check it out.... I do recall that Danny in 97 developed near the same area but just a tad more east of where all this convection is stationed now... Eventually Danny (Cat I) went NE towards the Mobile area and drilled em with about 30 inches of rain...
No more drought over here gang... hehe
Arrivederci
Edited by Frank P (Thu Jun 27 2002 12:29 AM)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Well I finally got some time to check out what's going on via the sat pix, data bouys and a myriad of other weather links and its still the SOS.. Things have been so slow out the past week I've kinda lost my desire and intensity to pay any attention to what's going on.. Saving myself for when things will crank up in late Aug... AND THEY WILL....
Convection in extreme NW GOM tail end of the broad ULL and should not go tropical... Nothing else in GOM to look at... Caribbean has zip... nada.... Gee, maybe the convection over the Yucatan area and north of the epac could drift further north into the BOC and incubate into something next week.... Yeah Right.... fuhgetaboutit (less than 10%)
Overall IMO June is going to put up a big fat 0 regarding tropical development (unless something drastic happens really quick)
Pretty safe bet to say that there should be no named tropical systems in June... So what else is new... Climatologically, we only should get a named storm in June every other year anyway, and we got one last year... so just sum it up as the law of averages catching up....
Tropical Storm development not expected until sometime later this summer.......
forecaster.......Frank P... hehe
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Glad to hear that Frank , "webfoot"  SEEEE- YAAA !!!
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
