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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: No Jinx Zone
      #10286 - Thu Aug 28 2003 10:32 PM

Whole post is edited. The new ECMWF run has come out. It moves the system much faster and calls for a Texas landfall sometime Sunday or Monday a bit further south than what it was showing - somewhere between Corpus and Galveston.

If you want to see for yourself:

http://www.ecmwf.int/

Click "Free access" and then scroll down to North America.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Storm Forum
      #10288 - Thu Aug 28 2003 10:38 PM

Just a note to let you know that a short discussion has been posted in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: No Jinx Zone
      #10289 - Thu Aug 28 2003 10:51 PM

Just about like the Bam's !

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Jamie-on-dabyu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lafitte, LA
Check this out !!!!!!
      #10290 - Thu Aug 28 2003 10:56 PM

Maybe I'm getting a wee bit excited here but the wave in the WC looks pretty darn good to me. But thats all I'm saying cause every time I pay any attention to these waves they go poof in the night!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOOK
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html

Seems the models are now taking it to Texas. Do yall think that will change or is that pretty close on the track.

Jamie


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Check this out !!!!!!
      #10291 - Thu Aug 28 2003 11:11 PM

models will change with time... shoot, you don't even have a LLC and movement to accurately run your initialization... watching the long range radar loop out of the keys, thunderstorm activity is moving NW... watching the IR loop it doesn't look to be moving much at all... now could this be your typical stacking problem... missing ingredient is which way are the low level clouds (the basis of the wave) are going... long range radar is probably seeing the mid level convection... not sure what it all means...yet... but every deviation it takes now, will have an impact on where it ultimately goes.... remember the models on TD 9, they were horrible.... other than the GFDL... which said TD 9 would basically go stationary and die out... it died out, but it did drift over towards the Yucatan and BoC... take the models with a grain of salt right now... maybe tomorrow they'll have a better handle on it... the more north this thing tracks, the more the models will shift east, conversly, more west the track, the more it will shift towards TX... I think its way to early to call...

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