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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: West Caribbean
      #10166 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:07 PM

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Try that!
Thanks to all ( you know who you are ) who got me up to speed on link posting!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 27 2003 10:21 PM)


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Good evening all.
      #10167 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:12 PM

Time for the pencil sharpening. waiting...
Depression Yes.. Storm ... way to far East yet.

Maybe a great Holiday and then track. Rain maybe gone Sunday and Monday here in Central Florida. Now it is a wait and see.

would be nice to have a nice holiday and no rain ... : )

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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TEAL61
Unregistered




Re: Good evening all.
      #10168 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:23 PM

Was looking at the 18Z MM5 run from the Accuweather site and it develops a low in the NW Carribbean in about 27 hours. It moves this low northwest into the GOM. Maybe whats going on around Jamaica and Grand Cayman is the beginings of this.

I noticed some questions about the cost of Accuweather pro in a post above. I signed up when the were testing the site and had it free during this time. When they changed to a pay site they offered it to everybody who had signed up during beta testing at a discounted rate of 9.95 per month.


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
NW Carribean
      #10169 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:40 PM

Not to jump on the NW Carribean bandwagon, but, that area is looking better and better. I also think it may be pulling in what energy was left that went north of Haiti et al.

That MM5 senario just may pan out.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: NW Carribean
      #10170 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:49 PM

there have been enough model runs suggesting something to develop out of this system (most were doing it in the bahamas and carrying it to the SE coast).. that whatever goes on down there merits attention. right now its just convective bursting.. yet ambient pressures are low, and the amplification in the plains is causing the flow down there to back up, concentrating energy. just a cause for vigilance as of now.
the atlantic activity is going on far to the east and has the earmarks of recurvature. 10L will be fabian tomorrow, and likely be a hurricane over the weekend. ahead of it 93L is in a strong shear environment.. the actual surface trough is SW of the convective burst.. it is sharp but not closed. note that it is moving just north of west, not the nnw sheared cloud motions suggest. sometimes a system will develop in such a sheared environment... it will have to persist for some time. there appears to be some divergence maybe 18hr upstream that may give it a window to burst to life. even if it develops it will remain weak initially and track mostly west. my earlier comment may have been misplaced.. ridging will probably keep this system moving west.
the southern extent of the wave that spawned 93L still has a low, but only spotty convection. as it nears the caribbean it may experience that sudden upswing in organization that some of its predecessors have.. just something to look for. african wave train has mellowed out for a couple of days, more energetic waves will be moving off from the holiday weekend on.
august can still give us another system.
HF 0349z28august


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
clarifying our east atlantic systems
      #10171 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:56 PM

what i said is confusing.. about the westward movement. to clarify.. i can see things going either way. my best bet is that 93L changes little in organization for the next 24-48hrs, then slowly begins to rev up, north of the islands. there may be a very pumped ridge as it nears this area and it may accelerate westward.. that is all conjecture and probably crap, but maybe i've got a clue. on its heels i think 10L (fabian?) will track mostly west, with a slight northerly component, maybe with a couple of nw stairsteps.. and be somewhere north of the virgin islands on labor day.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: NW Carribean
      #10172 - Thu Aug 28 2003 12:28 AM

NW Carib. system looks like it's trying to organize., TD 10 should be Fabian tomorrow and 93L hanging in there despite the shear. Right on cue, there could very well be 3 classified systems on L.D. weekend. A busy time for this board coming up.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: NW Carribean
      #10173 - Thu Aug 28 2003 01:04 AM

L10 Looks as if it wraps that band around it will be a hurricane bye morning.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: NW Carribean
      #10174 - Thu Aug 28 2003 01:45 AM

is that a joke or you serious,,comments like that make me not read the boards too much!

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: NW Carribean
      #10175 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:25 AM

Guys, if 10 is not a Tropical Storm right now, then I will burn my degree. There is no way that puppy is not a Tropical Storm.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Tropicalwatcher
Unregistered




Degree burning time?
      #10176 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:43 AM

I wonder how your going to burn that degree of yours!


000
WTNT45 KNHC 280835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS INDICTED BY THE
WIDE ARRAY OF SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 SWIRL
AREAS THAT ARE BEING IDENTIFIED AS CENTERS THAT WOULD RANGE IN
FORWARD SPEEDS OF 18 TO 25 KT. I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION THAT
TD 10 IS ACCELERATING TO 25 KT...SO I HAVE USED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED AND CONSERVATIVE FEATURES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
IN BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND A 28/0233Z
TRMM OVERPASS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER ABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE
COLDEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT DESPITE
A SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SINCE THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND THE INNER-CORE
CONVECTION AND EARLIER BANDING FEATURES HAVING BECOME MORE RAGGED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER..UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/18. THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS LIKELY
DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RESUME A MOTION OF 275 DEGREES. THE STRONG
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH ALONG 31N LATITUDE
...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEW RUN INDICATING A DEEPER
AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET MAINTAINS A SHALLOW WEAK SYSTEM THAT
MOVES MORE POLEWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS
NORTH OF THE GFS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM.

SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
THEN AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72
HOURS...BUT THEN LESS THAN THE 79 KT IT FORECASTS BY 120 HOURS.
THIS IS DUE TO DRY MID-LEVEL AIR POSSIBLY BECOMING A FACTOR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.7N 35.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 40.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.9N 43.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 45.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 17.4N 49.8W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 54.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W 65 KT


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
"Banding features ragged"
      #10177 - Thu Aug 28 2003 05:30 AM

The subject line from Stewart's new discussion this morning is what I'd like to stress...it means two things...TD 10 is moving a bit too fast and it is probably not strengthening rapidly for the next 12 hours, at least. I don't think this storm is going to die and dry out on us, although areal convective coverage is smaller this morning than it was last night.

In order to intensfify much today, 10 needs to slow down just a bit and the convective needs to improve.

Overall, the southward and westward track shifts are warranted. Models are shifting south and west, and the ridge probably won't flex as much as what was thought yesterday.


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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Re: "Banding features ragged"
      #10178 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:53 AM

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/0600 UTC 14.8N 34.3W T2.5/2.5 10


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islander
Unregistered




Re: "Banding features ragged"
      #10179 - Thu Aug 28 2003 07:34 AM

AVN latest run places this system just east of the Leewards in 5 days...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi?time=2003082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
06z GFS looks scary
      #10180 - Thu Aug 28 2003 07:48 AM

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/gfs06zaug28.gif

This is an 384 hour animation of the GFS that shows a brush to the northern leewards,the VI and Puerto Rico and that is too close for comfort for me and Islander.And for the east coast it will be a big threat.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Carribean Low
      #10181 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:06 AM

I was looking at the Carribean low east of Jamaica wondering which direction it will go and will it form? Does any model have a clue on this one? Looks on IR loop that it's heading North don't know if it will form though.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey Weather...
      #10182 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:23 AM

I agree. Joe B thinks it's already a 60mph storm. TPC is obviously taking the slow development route with this one for whatever reason.

Gulf is starting to come to life, but shouldn't be anything until at least Saturday as the aforementioned pieces of the puzzle begin to come together.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Carribean Low
      #10183 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:24 AM

One thing in its favor thus far for development is that it has been persistent for the past 12 hours, and it did not fade during the night... IR is sometimes tricky to determine direction... although it might look like its moving north, you could be seeing the tops of the convection blowing off in that direction... get a better idea on direction after we get some vis loop pixs... if I were to guess I say its slow somewhere between WNW and NNW....

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Hey Weather...
      #10184 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:30 AM

From what I can discern on the sat pixs I think TD 10 is a tropical storm... hard to say wind speed, but overall signature and symmetry favors TS status.... if not, it's one dang healthy TD...

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Beach
Unregistered




WHAT IS THAT!
      #10185 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:45 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

What is that just South of Cuba?


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