Alex
Unregistered
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The hurricane hunters found winds that correspond to catagory 5 status. They are going to kick the storm back up to a 5
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Question: If memory serves, the starts doing updates every three hours once the storm nears the mainland. Is this true, and if so, how far (miles-wise) out does a storm have to be before the more frequent updates? Thx
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Clark, You are right and we are not letting our guard down at all. I stated earlier that until it passed my latitude i would not feel safe for either me or my family. I do, however believe that the track they are projecting out is the one most likely to occur. You know what? I just want good waves and no one to get hurt...thats all! I say be prepared but don't overeact!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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St. Pete Guy - does this track resemble the current storm?
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193804.asp
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 13 2003 02:27 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Okay, here's my thinking. The has been expecting that turn to the w/nw or nw for over 3 days now, and it hasn't happened yet. Both the 5AM forecast and the 11AM forecast had IsaHell moving W @ 9-10mph with the "and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours" line. So what do we know right now?
1) That at LEAST until 11AM Sunday Morning she's heading W
.
2) She's moving faster than she was at 5AM, which will make it harder for her to make a huge right hand turn, which will be difficult to do with her size as it is.
3) The is conservative and usually waits for 2-3 (maybe more) model runs before changing their tune.
4) The tracks have now shifted more WEST, not RIGHT, and not just one model but a consensus.
I'd like to point out that the stated yesterday that errors for this track have averaged near 275 NM on Day 4 and 375 NM on Day 5...and for intensity near 20knts each day. That's a huge margin of error, and it could very well put Florida in the bull's eye or put Isabel out to sea. They are the experts but let's remember there's not been a lot of CAT 5 storms for them to compare her too. This may very well be a "rogue" storm that is going to do whatever it wants too, and the models only spit out what humans put in them. has made mistakes before....Andrew was growing into a monster and there was only one met in Miami who was bold enough to go on the air and blow off the "official forecast", and he was right. Irene was supposedly pounding the West Coast of Florida even though Jim Cantore was in Miami being blown away.
As far as a where she's going, look at the coordinates from the 5AM and 11AM:
22.0N/60.4W
22.2N/61.5W
She's moved 2/10ths of a degree north and 1.5 degrees west in 6 hours. I would say that's a good indication of which way she's going.
Sometimes you just have to follow the real thing, forget the models. We'll get (hopefully) some good info today from Recon and by next week we'll either be here talking about how close it was or we won't be able to get online.
I've gotten so hyped up in the past about these storms that there is an actual "letdown" feeling that I went through when we were given the "all clear" because it was all I focused on 23 hours a day. Sue, with your condition, the last thing you need to be doing is watching loops all day long, hon. Go out and enjoy what you have today. I lost a cousin - an NYFD Officer - on 9/11 and my father died last December. Yes, it hurts a lot but I can't stay focused on it because there isn't a darned thing I can do to change what's already happened.
Ok, now watch her turn right at 5. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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From what I can tell on the GOES IR she appears to moving at about 280-285 degrees.... West is 270.... WNW 292.5.... so its definitely off the due west and perhaps even the just north of due west track during the past couple of hours or so... maybe it will flatter back out later but I doubt it...
Thus far has been right on.... but with a word of caution.... they've been wrong many times in the past.... although they seem to be doing quite well this season with the majors... so far....
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MiamiChris
Unregistered
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I believe that the issues three hour updates after watches and/or warnings are issued.
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troyc
Unregistered
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Richi..shouldnt you be in the wtaer by now. 
The wind is turning onshore up here in Cocoa Beach get it before the wind get son it.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2091
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Excellent post Colleen - and good advice. Isabel has regained Cat V status and that's not good news. Good insight from HankFrank and Clark as well. The storm is altering the environment around her - I'll amplify on that in a new Main Page article later this afternoon.
ED
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troy
Unregistered
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----even though Jim Cantore was in Miami being blown away-----
remember that running joke a couple of years back that wherever Jim Cantore was , thats wherre the storm was goin?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Ed, the thing that bothers me somewhat is that is back to a Cat 5 again, per recon... and with that comes the "dreaded" .... they create their own environment factor... which is always the unknown for me in forecasting.... along with affecting all the models as well...
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hypercane
Unregistered
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Isabel looks pretty much textbook to my eye right now. I see good outflow in all directions, has a classic shape.
That trough off the Carolinas doesn't look very strong or influential, to my untrained eye. I don't see how anyone is off the hook, yet.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Remember when they said in the 11AM "some intensification"? Check this out:
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2003
RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 158 KT AND 157 KT... RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 167KT...OR 192 MPH...JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ISABEL IS BEING INCREASED TO 140 KT...OR 160 MPH...AS OF 2 PM EDT...1800Z. THIS
MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN.
FORECASTER STEWART
192 mph winds a few hundred feet above the SURFACE? Incredible! I think we're looking at a whole new ball game here.
Thanks, Ed...sometimes I can actually get my thoughts out in words and make them sound somewhat sensible.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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excellent posts...and i certainly can't add anything to it right now. Well said Colleen...
this is no fish spinner
"they create their own environments"
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Colleen, that was a good post with lots of good info. I would disagree with you on one thing. Everybody says the "NHC has been forcasting a north turn and it hasn't happened yet". I think from what I've read the forcasted turn has not been projected over these past few days but still in the future. Everyone keeps looking for it to happen but It really is not supposed to have happened "yet". well, we will all just have to wait and see. Sux having to do that though!
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hypercane
Unregistered
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Per the Miami forecast discussion:
SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT EAST SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE CWA ATTM WITH THE
WIND VEERING QUICKLY TO THE WEST IN THE MID LEVELS. STORM MOTION
TODAY FAIRLY SLOW BUT FCSTD SOUNDING SHOWS THE EASTERLIES INCREASING
WITH DEPTH BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH...
Easterlies increasing with depth by Sunday in response to strengthening of surface high to the north. Where's the big escape hatch? Is there a chance we could have a NW drift, in response to the weakening offshore trough, followed by a hard left, perhaps even some WSW movement?
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SteveieB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
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Correct !
Look back at Wed. 0500AST forecast for 13/0600Z position by the dreaded . Forecast is 21.5/60.5, today's 0900Z position is ...........(drumroll) ....... 22.2/60.4, those Bastards!
The errors Colleen mentioned is the 10 year average of the forecasts v actuals, not just this storm.
The next 24-36 hours or so will be the smoking gun on the turn or not.
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zoidy
Unregistered
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HanKFrank....
not boarding yet..just getting the materials in house IN CASE they were needed for this storm or the next. As far as my
"back door" comment, that is a term I hear all the time around were I live. And yes, I believe that's what is meant..that a cane hits the East and progresses over us into the Gulf...that I understand. So, just for recks sake..if a catagory 4 cane hit the East coast direcly across from us then proceded toward us, how much would it degrade? 
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Moxinj
Unregistered
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I've been looking at satellite loops, and other than the HUGE eye, the storm looks to be going more NNW now.
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Moxinj
Unregistered
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err WNW
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