57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey, I offically put the GOM on hold until you get back! Go TCB Coop an check in when you can.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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What will be left of Marty when (if) it reaches the SW US is going to be far from a "decent hurricane". The system will be dissipating and will just produce some rain (possibly some gusty winds)....but certainly nothing close to hurricane conditions.
Lou
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Hey Domino,
I don't think that people don't care if AZ gets hit by a "decent" hurricane, but I don't think it will. By the time Marty travels that far north, it probably won't be Marty anymore. Most likely be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.
Btw, I have never known a hurricane to enter AZ. Something to research. Have a good one.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Maybe most of you have never lived in the deep SW as this is mostly an of Florida interest board but any amount of Tropical Rains in the ARIZONA area with any wind added in is going to cause some level of chaos. They don't need torrential rains with hurricane force winds for them to have flooding problems... small ravines or even dips in the desert that never flood given even a small amount of tropical moisture can create life threatening events and I imagine... a fun day for kids who rarely see that much moisture unless some wayward storm forgets to travel west into the Pacific.
Arizona..is NOT supposed to get Tropical moisture of any kind.. except in this situation..
Secondly, think its interesting that this is the second storm this year to insist on moving towards the East and not West (maybe more..Im not a big Pacific tracker) and anything that wreaks of a "trend" should be paid attention to by all of us over in this ocean... makes you wonder what is going on that is causing that...
I mean it caught my attention.
No... I thought it was very interesting, just didn't comment on it but I noticed and I wondered..
Just like to every season ... to every place they have their own weather and tropical moisture moving anywhere near Arizona should be watched by hobbiests of weather and they should be making you wonder.
As for that "Gale Center" ummmmnnnn sort of big, wish that thing down by PR would do "something" and if persistence is the key... load the long Orca loop I love and you will see what persists is the area in the gulf.. off tex/mex coast..hangs there and doesnt disappate... nice wave off of Africa
good luck cooper, bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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very outside chance it will be a tropical storm when it gets there.. more likely a tropical depression or remnant low.
occasionally those eastpac systems take the forefront, but marty isn't going to have much left when it gets up into the southwest.
nothing on the horizon in the atlantic. big canadian highs descending may create that pattern that leads to development in the western caribbean before too much longer, but as of yet there are no model specifics. western gulf system is becoming frontally associated, atlantic waves sputtering and not developing.
september is stacking up to have been fairly inactive overall, in spite of the two large hurricanes that were active this month. granted it isn't over.. but if only two named storms end up having formed this month, it will have been the quietest september since 1996. usually though, slow here means active october.
HF 1301z22september
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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let me rephrase that: 1997. september 1997 featured only erika, it was about as dead as they come.
HF 1303z22september
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah... was slow but was a great summer online.. more posts on the old Hurricane History Board on AOL that summer than the most active years in history.
It was a breather... after 95/96 I suppose it was needed.
Read Bastardi.. suppose its very probable what he says re: next week being active in Atlantic/Carib.. hope he is right.
Where was Bastardi in 97, inquiring minds want to know
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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A question for those who pay more attention to history then I guess I do when it comes to Hurricane and climatology. It seems to me that after a large intense storm forms in the ATL, that a period of quiet follows where it relates to Tropical Storm formation. Was this true after Andrew? Hugo? Gilbert? I won't throw in Mitch because it was a late season storm anyway.
I agree with you Lois that there are features in both the ATL and GOM that have been persistent. A couple more days hanging there and you would think things would work to the surface with one of those features and I have been hearing that conditions are suppose to become more favorable for deveolpment by late this week to early next.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts! 
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean.
Uhm. It DID form in a different ocean  .
As to future threats, here are a few JB notes from today:
>>So the call here is more west a track than TPC through the Southwest and up into Nevada by Friday morning. Whether we get the rare event of a tropical storm into the desert of Arizona is still tough to call, but this has a shot at coming right up the Gulf of California and over water.
>>Tropics: The Gulf is where the unsettled weather will be over the next 10-15 days. The idea is the last high has the best chance to spawn a storm behind it as the trof lifts out, the flow flattens and pulls northward after the 1st, and a piece of the trof splits off. Perpetual low pressure will remain over the southern and central Gulf over the next 10 days, so it has to be watched. The development of the Atlantic ridge farther east over the central Atlantic will increase easterlies into the deep Tropics, which is the kiss of death for tropical cyclones in the early part of the year, but not now. Why? Because of pressure changes in the means over South America. The point is that the Atlantic is quiet now, but it may not be next weekend at this time (make that Atlantic or Caribbean.)
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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More Isabel Photos
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 26.7N 58.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2003 26.7N 58.0W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2003 27.5N 57.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2003 27.8N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2003 28.0N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2003 28.1N 55.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2003 28.1N 55.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2003 28.9N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2003 29.7N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2003 31.2N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2003 32.0N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2003 32.7N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Got to get going now.. later!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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The upper level winds dont look to favorable there, but its as active as anwhere else in the basin right now
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Aren't the Tropics amazing? We go from not a sniff of development to a possible TS (provided by experimental models I understand) within 24 hours.
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Jara
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Still a lot of shear over that area, if it does develop it'll be a fish. Still waiting to see what happens in the GOM, some of our local mets down here are saying a surface low may develop and track ene over FL. 
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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love the photo of the ship Mike...thanks, beautiful
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Your answer is in the Hurricane History forum. Tropical cyclones in the desert southwest are uncommon but they do occur. Two inches of rain in southern Arizona is like ten inches of rain in Florida. The dry arroyos fill up rapidly and flash flooding occurs. Arizona has had a couple of hurricanes (would you believe it - so has New Mexico).
Cheers,
ED
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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There was a Steve out there years back who used to track hurricanes on the old Hurricane History board, cant remember his name but bet he would love it. Not sure the moisture will make it up there but its interesting that both storms went so far inland.
Wondering what comes next out there..neutral or El Nino?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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What Hurricanes Mike? I looked and could not find any evidence of any strikes on Arizona. Would be interesting reading.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Arizona Tropical Storm Impacts - article:
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/articles/tropical_Aug2002.pdf
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tropical Storms Affecting Arizona:
August, 1906 ... A tropical cyclone tracked north/northwestward across the Gulf of California into the southwestern states generating rainfall of up to five inches in the deserts and southern mountains of southern California on the 18th and 19th.
September, 1939... The remnants of a hurricane tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona generating rainfall of up to seven inches in the southern mountains and southern and eastern deserts of Southern California on the 4th through 7th with the heaviest rain on the 5th and 6th.
September, 1939…The remnants of a second tropical cyclone tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona.
July, 1954... A northward moving hurricane made landfall in central Baja California with the remnants moving into Arizona.
October, 1972... Hurricane Joanne recurved making landfall in northern Baja California and maintaining tropical storm strength into Arizona.
September, 1976... North/northwestward moving Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California with the remnants moving into southern California. Hurricane Kathleen brought to the Southwest the highest sustained winds ever associated with an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma on the 10th.
October, 1977... Hurricane Heather recurved with the remnants tracking across northern Baja California into Arizona.
September, 1982… Remnants of Hurricane Norman tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into Arizona with scattered rainfall amounts up to one inch in the southern mountains and deserts of southern California on the 17th and 18th.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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