HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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good negative wave coming into the north atlantic basin... things should start tripping of during the next few days. considering time of year, the sw caribbean and central atlantic should be the areas to watch. it's late for the far eastern atlantic.
by the way, a big canadian high is forecast to drive down to the gulf coast in the next week... should be our first cool fall air mass to penetrate south.. western gulf strike probs drop off after such an event.
HF 1752z23september
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Looking for hurricanes which have struck AZ, not Tropical storms.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I know. I couldn't find any. Pretty sure there never were any full strength hurricanes to hit 'Zona. Closest might have been Kathleen with sustained winds of 57.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Thanks Phil...I couldn't find any either...
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2104
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Good discussion - which prompted me to take a look at a couple of other storms. The UNISYS Best Track data shows that Hurricane #11 in 1958 and Hurricane in 1967 were still at hurricane strength in Arizona so I went back and looked at the position data for those storms. The 1958 hurricane was listed at hurricane strength (75kts) throughout the entire life span of the storm, so throw that one out as bad data. Hurricane in 1967 was a 75 knot hurricane at 31.9N 114.6W on September 2nd at 12Z. Six hours later the storm was in Arizona but it had weakened to a 45 knot tropical storm (and 6 hours after that, it was gone). The debate centers of whether it was still a 65 knot hurricane when it crossed the border into Arizona - perhaps, but not likely - no reporting stations to confirm it one way or the other.
Cheers,
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>14/8/4
The initial 14/8/4 appears to be La Nina influenced. I jumped the gun like 90% of the rest of weather fans. I'm not sure where we end up, because I think at least 3 more named storms are in the offing. I think we're at 9/5/2, though we technically could be as high as 10/6/3 with the appropriate recon information.
>>This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area.
So far so good on the open US Coast, as hits have come from Texas to North Carolina.
>> I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Check - Bill, Claudette, Erika, Grace, Henri
>>We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year.
Check - Bill, Grace, Claudette, Grace, Henri (double hit not verified by ), Isabel (TD #7)
>>I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus
Got 2 there
>>1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay
Got 1 there
>>2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach
Got 1 there so far
>>1 landfall between Key West and PCB
Got 1 there (though Erika was close when she backed across the state)
>>and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al).
Still waiting for the big one in SE FL
>>The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.
Got that one (including TS conditions from VA to NJ)
>>It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.
Check
---------------------------------------------------
There was some other fluff about the NAO and SSTA's, but we've all been watching that this year. Joe B has been singing 1985 and 1995 the last several days. He believes the season which pretty much began in the Gulf (sans April Ana), most likely will end there too. October 1985 had Juan menacing FL and LA. October 1995 had Opal. He's very high on the season finishing up with a Florida hit, so we're going to have to wait and see if/when that comes to pass. Chances are, nothing is going to get organized in the Gulf until this period of amplification is over. Chances are that the 3rd trof in the series may split and drop a piece into the south central Gulf. There will be an ULL there for the next several days as well as 3 waves feeding on in. It's a slow path to development, but one that the eastern Gulf will eventually be paying attention to IMHO.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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You were wondering what the predictors for were. Here's the trending toward a moderate El Nino by July 2004.
NCEP - next 10 months
I don't have Cycloneye's list of what all the prediction offices say, but I'm going to try to find it as well.
Got it (thanks to a search for Cycloneye!):
ENSO Forecast from 8/03 - Next 8 Months
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Thank you. Looking now.. couldn't sleep for no real reason thought I'd read a bit so thanks.
My feeling is that it wants to go El Nino... just a feeling, nothing to back it up. Ok.. maybe just from observation.
Whoever said this was a neutral year I think was most correct, I know its listed as La Nina (mild) but think if you watch on a daily, weekly base there is a lot of seesawing of energy.
Thanks, will read.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Guys quick post this AM, has anyone noticed the 00Z run? Have to say I was suprised to see how aggressive the model is at this point. Don't have time for all the runs this morning. Florida Penn. is target but certain amount of comfort in that, as the models will make their usual shifts. Bad thing though if it does materialize someone is goin to feel some heat. Catch ya later, have a good one! 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Wed Sep 24 2003 08:16 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Seems the place to look right now..
Notice the area south of Cuba has sort of congealed a bit into a round ball...maybe just a temporary illusion or a trend.
Which is it?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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on the psu site i use for the models the only 2 that are current are the and the gfl.(and it focuses on marty) does anyone have a site that hass all the current ones? the sure has a wet windy monday for naples/tampa
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
I think the thunderstorms passing 50W / 15N might be interesting 3-4 days down the road.
Note:, it has been surrounded by really dry air for the last couple of days, but still is increasing in thunderstorm activity.
any thoughts...
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Watching convection building at 13n 78w. It is by no means a persistent formation but interesting in light of the latest runs of the AVN and showing some type of development in that area.
As for the W. ATL and points east, the old Saharan Tropical System Killing dust has been prominent.
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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NCEP has most of the US generated models, and then independentwx.com has a link to most of the other models from their "Atlantic Basin" link. Also, Unisys has their fair share as well.
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I agree with Bobbi on the potential for Florida. Something's probably going to happen this weekend (per , ) but it's not going to be 'the' big-ticket item. There's either gonna be a deep tropical flow setup or maybe a TD or TS.
There's also a chance (per Joe B) that the Canadian Maritimes could see some tropical action via the mass sitting out in the western Atlantic. Let me see if he's got anything on his site.
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TROPICS: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS First, our friends in Bermuda and in the Canadian Maritimes should keep a close watch on the cluster of thunderstorms about 200 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This is one of these conversion systems that may become tropical. The Atlantic ridge and its feedback warmth is serving to trap the system, and it may just mill around slowly northward over the next three or four days waiting for the eventual move eastward by the trof to pick it up. In the wake of the Karen debacle, I cannot see why a low pressure over 85-degree water would be classified as non-tropical as, once again, the tired old purist arguments arise. I will do my part to avoid it here, except to state that Bermuda, and then maybe early next week the Maritimes, may have effects from a storm that came from the Tropics that had gales and heavy rain. Again, of most concern first is Bermuda.
The western Caribbean is the next problem spot. Once again, the instant look may not be favorable, but the pattern rapidly improves overall over the next four days as a strong trof in the means near 90 west ventilates this area in the means. The call is for low pressure to develop Friday over the northwest Caribbean, then take aim on Florida this weekend. Crucial questions as to how strong it will get I cannot answer now, except to say there is a tropical storm or hurricane concern by me this weekend for you folks there. Of course, I may be jumping too early given my stated position, but consider the following: the subtropical ridge is suppressed to near 20 north to the east, so it's not likely this just proceeds eastward, but will instead come northward. The water is warm there, and the season is late. It fits with the overall pattern for both the 90 west trof that develops and something we will be watching for the rest of the season. At the very least, this will enhance rainfall over an area that doesn't need it.
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Time to watch the Tropical Update.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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sat image for the area just south of Cuba
here is a link to a loop right here
Edited by troy2 (Wed Sep 24 2003 11:32 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>here is a link to a loop right here.
Classic. "I gotcho loop, /rite hea'/."
You can see the trof split to the west building a ridge overtop of that blob of convection. As noted on Joe B's tropical update, it's not the pattern itself, but the change in the pattern preceeding this development. If it cranks, I could see a 60mph TS down the road for Monday, but I ain't making that call yet. The Canadian is VERY BULLISH on the system, European much slower (time and intensity).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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It appears from the 11am Update that we weren't grasping at straws....
Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2003
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
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Jara
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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>>Classic. "I gotcho loop, /rite hea'/."
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Noticed it yesterday, sort of amazed at its tenacity to seem to want to survive despite such dry conditions.
Things like that always catch my attention but its got to twist, is it twisting..that's the question.
Watching the Carib a bit, heard the Canadian could be accused of working for Bastardi 
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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From JB's commentary this morning:
Another area to watch, as far as tropical development, is the western Caribbean. There is nothing well organized at this time; however, there is a cluster of thunderstorms off the Central American coast. However, with the trough axis over the Tennessee-Ohio Valley-Great Lakes region, that leaves room for lowering of surface pressure in the western Caribbean later this week, and room for that tropical moisture to be drawn northward. It remains to be seen whether or not an actual strong, well-organized tropical low comes out of this; at the very least, Florida should be quite wet this weekend. 
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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