stuartdave
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
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Not to worry I watched Lyons just before 5pm and anything in that area will be going to Mexico, Floridians have no worries other than higher insurance premiums for an undeserved reputation for big hurricanes(last one here was 1950). By the way we've had heavy rain predictions all week but no rain since Monday, you would think the local mets would occassionally look at the radar.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yeah, Steve Lyons is never wrong...even Jon Nese is better.
I wish we could bring back John Hope
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Hi Jlauderdale:
I read a post where a recon had gone out and found some winds, however, it may have been on Kate
A standard satellite is one produced by NOAA or , nothing specialized
A cold wave is what we used to call cold fronts when I was growing up back in the dark ages. We called them that because in Florida, the cold air just waved bye bye after a few hours or days.
When I speak on the boards, I do it with the language of yesterday. But, my comments mean no harm. I may very well have thought that recon was seeing some upper level storm winds and surface storm winds based on another post I read, if so. and I am wrong, I misspoke. Thanks for listening.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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The latest recon found 1004 pressure and winds of 65 miles per hour at flight level. I would bet that this thing is classified at 11, but I thought the same yesterday...
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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thanks for the clarification..just want to make sure i am on the same page.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/010006.shtml?
The first advisory will be out in an hour.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Wow, 90L (Larry) looks to be on the up-swing tonight! Agree that it should go straight to TS status soon, but who knows what the will do. If it continues in the up-swing mode sooner or later they are going to have to do something. I think the bigger question here is where is he going?? The more the system strenghtens the better the chance of him making a tour of the gulf and eventually a pit stop somewhere in Florida. Then again that's just my opinion, I could be terribly wrong. 
I see we now have Larry!! Thanks for the info Cyc...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Wed Oct 01 2003 09:21 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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as alex has already noted.. they're finding more and more evidence. eventually the will have to state the obvious.
kate is looking nice. small hurricane, but a more solid ring and better defined eye becoming apparent. still diving wsw, waters just get warmer south of 30N.
HF 2247z01october
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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723
WONT41 KNHC 012230
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2003
DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW
HAS LITTLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINING...AND THEREFORE THE LOW IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LARRY. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM LARRY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLKIN
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Jason Kelley
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I guess they just couldn't hide the elephant in the middle of the room any longer. People just kept tripping over him. Now, for the next few hours of speculation as to where he will go and end up. It will be interesting to read from you guys how the models initialize on this storm. I don't read meterology well, so I depend on the wise guys around here err uh wisemen. I would like to say though, I would appreciate it if someone could arrange an 8 hour in advanced hurricane warning for Central/North Polk County Florida. I would sure love a long weekend without any loss of life to anyone. Thanks in Advance.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Hey Rick-in-Mobile............. is Larry going to come visit us ?? 
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Models showing Larry eventually headed towards Florida, don't know the time frame though as he could sit and spin in the BOC for awhile. 
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I can comment now that the s toys told them what every weekend meteorologist already suspected. T-number is good:
01/2345 UTC 20.6N 94.0W T2.0/2.0 LARRY
I see the intial models going east but I will wait for a good day or two of model runs to get some sense of where Larry will go. Bastardi might get his hit, only it might be S. FL. Frankly, if I were in the Panhandle, I would pick up plywood this weekend.
Mary K., we here in Polk County will enjoy our Bucs game this Monday. We have Mickey on our side to protect us.
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Jara
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Looks like it could be awhile before gets moving. I predict a whole lot of crow on this one as the system isn't moving anywhere fast.
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Ok Make that Monday evening ( a threat to make the Buc's game more interesting( and so I don't have to go to work) I could use a three day weekend with pay.I am afraid though, looking at the loops tonight, an optical illusion perhaps, but it looks like the entity(Larry) is rolling to the west off of the frontal weather like one of those birthday streamer-whistles. It will have to wind itself back up before it can change directions and it looks like if one were to take the meterological scissors and snip it, the entity would turn loose and go into Mexico. I have seen this happen a lot of times in other situations.Fortunately the weekend is coming up and there will be plenty of time to observe what happens as opposed to having to wait all day to see what has happened. 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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