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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13497 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:38 PM

thanks, i didn't think it was probable. i just keep seeing circulation on the one in the sw and the center one. the blob heading towards fla didn't appear to have any circulation to it and i figured it was just a blow off caught in the front that had stalled. looks like if it makes to fla. they are gonna have a major rain fall again today

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13498 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:39 PM

But of course, it is possible....just unlikely.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13499 - Tue Sep 30 2003 02:58 PM

Ships report from 20.7, 93.5 (in the bay of campeche blob) reported winds from 340 degrees (just west of due north) at 24.1 knots. Interesting - a bit of a westward component. The plane's in there now, so we'll see if that verifies and if the plane finds a more westward component.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13500 - Tue Sep 30 2003 03:27 PM

On the west side of the other blob, the one north of the Yucatan (at 23.7/90.7), recon found a SSW to SW wind (200 degrees) of 21 knots at an altitude of about 5630 meters (18470+/- feet).

So reports of winds that have at least some westward component in both blobs. Curious if zero, one, or both blobs will result in vortex messages.

What a mess out there. Not to mention outside here, in Miami. It's ugly out.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13501 - Tue Sep 30 2003 03:30 PM

Actually, anyone know if that 18000+ foot reading even translates to the surface? Or is it too high?

Looks like at a lower altitude (1200-1300 feet), a little farther west in the Yucatan blob, the plane found N-NNE winds. Perhaps that's a more accurate indication of surface wind direction in blob #1.


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
90L
      #13502 - Tue Sep 30 2003 04:44 PM

does anyone know if they(the recon)found any kind of closed circulation. I assume if they did it would be with the low in the BOC

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: 90L
      #13503 - Tue Sep 30 2003 04:51 PM

Alex:

The plane is focusing on the BOC area, but it has not sent back a vortex message, so I don't think it's found a closed circulation.

The plane has made at least one observation of a wind just west of south (200 degrees) in the BOC area, so we'll see what else it finds.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: 90L
      #13504 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:00 PM

My mistake about one thing, Alex. Just looked at the net-waves.net plots, and the plane is focusing on an area between the two "blobs," which really aren't as distinct anymore. It's closer to that deepest blob of convection in the BOC (or at least where it was earlier today) than it is to the blob north of the Yucatan, but it's really between the two.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: 90L
      #13505 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:04 PM

Hey all....just woke up after Isabel.

Watching Jeannetta Jones on TWC, she stated at the 3:50pm Tropical Update that the "NHC is beginning to be a bit more concerned with this one [points to middle blob] and there is a recon plane out there right now trying to get some more information, but people along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye on this."

I have not seen any vortex data yet, which usually means that they haven't found anything all that exciting. Yet.

Toodooloo!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: 90L and kate
      #13506 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:10 PM

WE have been under a Flood Watch since Monday. I have yet to see a raindrop today. I have a headache, I'm grouchy and I have to go sit for 2 hours at football practice and get eaten alive by mosquitos.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
New Kate Models
      #13507 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:18 PM

Welcome back Colleen. Lest we forget about Kate, she's still out there spinning the fish. However, the models now all seem to be in much better agreement about bringing her back due west. I still think she'll continue to churn the chum, but there may be an outside shot at her making a run at Bermuda or Newfoundland. As for 90L...looks like Larry may be taking up residence in the Carribbean, not the gulf. Let's see what the planes report. Check out the modeling on Kate:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200316_model.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: New Kate Models
      #13508 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:22 PM

Phil:

"As for 90L...looks like Larry may be taking up residence in the Carribbean, not the gulf."

What do you mean by that? Is any part of 90L still even in the Caribbean?


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Weak circulation found, but no depression
      #13509 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:23 PM

From the 530 tropical outlook:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
REPORTED A POORLY-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT OR NEAR THE TAIL
END OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AND THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT FOUND
ANY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS...UP TO
25-30 MPH...ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND HEAVY
RAINS OVER FLORIDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: New Kate Models
      #13510 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:25 PM

No. I meant that 90L may not make it to "name strength". Our next TS may come from the Carribbean.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: New Kate Models
      #13511 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:28 PM

OK, thanks for clarification. Didn't know if I was missing something big, or if the satellite images I was looking at had a big area of convection down there they weren't transmitting.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: New Kate Models
      #13512 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:29 PM

Yeah. I could have and should have been clearer. This may become Larry yet -- I wouldn't bet against it. And if he were to form, all interests should be prepared. It's just from the looks of things, 90L may not even become a TD. Time will tell.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Yawn...
      #13513 - Tue Sep 30 2003 07:36 PM

After Isabel, its been tough getting excited about Juan, Kate, et al. I was thinking at one point with how, after Isabel became a cat 5 and then the basin went quiet for a while, that Isabel was like a really big boat in a really small pond...the wake SLOSHed all the way to shore and made the rides bumpy for all the potentials out there. Wonder if there is any scientific principle to that?

Anyhoo, been way too darn busy to post much. Juan was pretty cool. Small little system that still packed a wallop for our Canadian friends.

Kate has not been a very pretty girl most of her life. Probably not going to pick up many dates til she does something with her appearance. Will keep watching though--after Kyle last year I rule nothing out anymore.

As for 90L, definitely could see a hint of a circulation building, but I feel like this is going to come ashore in Mexico before ever coming to anything of substance. If it lingers off the coast a while, something will surely eventually pull it north, but I'm going with the westward track for now.

Doesn't look like I'm going to make my "quota" this year. My prediction was 15/8/4. Maybe 8 hurricanes will happen, but I'm not betting on 4 more named storms this season, and I really only see one more intense storm if any.

Anyway, back to lurking....for now.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13514 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:25 PM

One day I'm going to get in trouble, but I pay for this. I'd never give every day updates on what he says, but this is great. He's beatin' up on the TPC again:

TUESDAY EVENING ON TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF
The recon has found a 1006 pressure with 50 kt flight level winds and 40 kts surface winds. Apparently knocked for a loop by this report, TPC has responded with the Special tropical disturbance statement and what I consider a moot argument about a front being in the area and so its not truly tropical. There is a front in the area, true. However the system is over 85 degree water with gales and 3 straight reports of a center. But the evidence that demands a verdict is below as the recon is ALSO REPORTING A WARM CORE CENTER! PLEASE EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE:


SEE THIS: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

Here is what I means, from the TPC website: I. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE OUTSIDE THE EYE. This gives an idea of the general temperature surrounding the storm. "Standard" temperature at 700 mb (where we fly most hurricanes) is about -5 degrees Celsius, but in the tropics, it's usually 10 to 15 degrees warmer than "standard". What you especially want to look for is how it compares to the temperature inside the eye, in Item J or P. The example shows a temperature of 11 degrees Celsius (52 degrees Fahrenheit) at an altitude of 3082 meters (10,112 feet). The altitude is included because the airplane bumps up and down due to turbulence and other factors, and minor changes in the temperature may be due to changes in altitude.

Now here is what J means, from the TPC website: J. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE INSIDE THE EYE. This is yet another indicator of how "healthy" the storm is. One of the unusual features of a hurricane is that it is warmer inside the eye than outside. What you want to look for here is how much warmer it is than the temperature reported outside the eye in Item "I." A developing storm may be only a degree warmer inside the center, while a strong hurricane may be 10 degrees warmer. In this example, the eye temperature of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) is four degrees warmer than the temperatures immediately outside the eye. Be sure to look at the remarks in Item "P" to see if there was an even warmer temperature found inside the eye (but more than 5 miles from the fix position). The aircraft was at a pressure altitude of 3108 meters (10,198 feet).

Lets look again at what I and J are reported to be in our 1006 mb , 40 kt system

At flight level here is the ob: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

J, the inside is warmer than I the outside. Yet here comes the reluctance to name the system causing gales over 85 degree water, with now 3 recons cutting off a center, and the center warmer than the outlying area.

Just what is the reason for this? The claim a front is around. The fact is the center and the structure is warm core, the report is there, and its defined in their own guidelines. Besides, there are many storms that have fronts around them. To me, The DATA, THE FACTS, SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

I have no changes on my perceived evolution of this the next few days


--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13515 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:43 PM

In plain English, is there a tropical Storm in the gulf, is it traveling east, west or stationary. Apparently there is still nothing official on this but the Gulf is not that big and is everyone betting the budget(federal Dollars) that it will land a big wad of money in someone's State treasurey if the storm comes there unforewarned?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13516 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:47 PM

heheh. 11pm, larry. or is that a frontal low?
HF 0148z01october


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