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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Baby larry
      #13517 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:05 PM

On NRL site, it shows 40kts and 1006 pressure. Larry has been born after a rather long pregnancy

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
cute hank frank, very cute
      #13518 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:16 PM

got something down there ...thats for sure

cute post, thanks
keep watching...maybe more tropical disclaimers to come

more rain for sure..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13519 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:23 PM

It goes without saying that I gotcho' frontal low /rite hea'/.

/street

I think yeah Mary though they won't admit it. Franklin must be running scared or something. I'm skeptical that they've been trying to justify their own forecasts at times this year. Kind of like the biggest kid in the neighborhood, you can make up the rules as you go along to suit you first.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13520 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:52 PM

Lawrence may yet be born, but his birthday WON'T be until October...

GO CUBBIES!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 30 2003 10:54 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13521 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:07 PM

ack.. theyre hurting my braves right now. nope, its wait til tomorrow. after all, its a FRONTAL low.
HF 0307z01october


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13522 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM

I can't see this thing doing much! May be wrong but I see some more rain for thoes who don't need it, nothing more.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13523 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM

hey steve,
scroll down and look before and after the recon decode section.. kinda get your attention. web page


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13525 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:22 AM

Yo thanks for the heads up. I think that if Louisiana gets hit (and I really have no idea what this is going to do), it would probably be from the WSW or something - maybe a feeder band or two in Plaquemines or St. Bernard Parishes and say the Chandeleur Islands. I would assume we'd see some strong north winds and not much rain here depending on how far north the front retreats (among other things). Thursday is supposed to be the day, but it looks pretty good on Hi Res IR tonight.

Hi-Res IR TNRCC

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
bedtime tidbit
      #13526 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:42 AM

Checked on some of the later models out now, and I'm surprised that they're still not doing much with 90L. I checked latest available runs of ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, ETA and NOGAPS. Either the models are all right and I'm out to lunch thinking 90L has the look like it's going to crank up, or they are missing something. Crow's on the grill for them or me at this point.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Good Morning!
      #13527 - Wed Oct 01 2003 07:46 AM

I can't believe no one is here moaning and groaning about the lack of a declared storm this morning. The standard satellite is looking ominous if you think tropical system, and the usual if you think cold wave: november, december, january, february. So is this a cold wave named Larry or is it a tropical storm...oops no name?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Good Morning!
      #13528 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:04 AM

The shortwave IF you can see the rotation the best it seems in the BOC holding it's own and stationary.This looks like the only place development could occur.Anything above the 25N line is in for some shear.If the thunderstorms to the NE could make their way to the bay might be enough energy to get this thing rolling.It's a wait and see now as they all are really.Timing is important on htis thing fi=or movement.Temps rise here in a couple of days(alittle).How far does the high regress and how long before the next dip.What I have seen on the local maybe a 48-72 hr window over the WE.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Good Morning!
      #13529 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:28 AM

Our cold wave is getting a decent T-number:

01/0615 UTC 20.9N 93.9W T1.5/1.5 92

They are the professionals and have all the toys so I will cut slack to the NHC but man, has this been an odd year. Mid-lattitude tropical systems in the East ATL coming west. 2 hits up the more northern East Coast and the NHC looks as indecisive as Custer at the Little Big Horn. Any one can be thrown off as coincidence but all together. The only thing missing is a Major Cat 5 developing out of the CV in November. We shall see....

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
? for Mary
      #13530 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:50 AM

questions for mary
1. What is a standard satellite?
2. Did they send recon out that I don't know about that found a defined low LLC?
3. What is a cold wave?

thanks for your insight.

jlauderdal


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
what the...
      #13531 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:23 AM

gale center persisting the gulf.. imagine that. more modeling leaning on development now.. all show erratic movement (anything from northwest to southeast). that kind of model play indicates slow, erratic movement. have to admit whatever frontal feature is down there is stunting growth, but i very much doubt that this isnt a tropical storm. again, think the NHC is waiting on a stadium eye to make the upgrade. we've seen much sloppier systems named (and not many better ones not named). that bastardi forecast (wishcast?) sending whatever system is there up to the northern gulf coast is getting a little bit of support at random.. but with a very divergent set of model solutions nothing can be discounted. if he gets it, the pitch was way out of the strike zone.
kate returning to form in the east atlantic, banding eye and all.. slowly accelerating wsw. GFS crowd recurves the storm late in the period, while NOGAPS is consistently not turning the storm and weakening it. the outcome will probably lie in how strong the storm gets, how much shear it encounters... etc. the parallel to kyle has already been drawn, and that kind of persistence required lots of weakening at times when troughs came to make the pickkup.
other areas models are picking up on possible activity.. after 3 days or so the sargasso sea area may have a frontal disturbance acting up.. and a cold low may slip in from european waters and follow kate, around the canaries-azores in five days or so (these occasionally go native).
anyhow, thats the tropics. free roaming east atlantic system, threatening frontal low in the gulf.
HF 1424z01october


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: what the...
      #13532 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:30 AM

Does it look like we will be spared here on the Upper Texas Coast?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
!
      #13533 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:47 AM

Hey Cycloneye,

Can you guys reset my account at s2k? Every time I logon since the server migration, it won't accept my password (I switched from the IP Address to storm2k.org). Neither of them work unless I'm banned or something. I want to seriously disagree with professional met wxman57 over his downplaying of the potential in the cold air advection thread.
----------------------------------------------------
Now back to your regularly scheduled programs.

Thanks,

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Area north of the Yucatan
      #13534 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:52 AM

I think this goes back to IF the area in the BOC looked as good as the area north of the Yucatan did then we would have had a name already ... again... issue of what some places would like to see happening vs what is happening and a waiting game waiting for the area that IS convecting and has BAD weather and STRONG winds to die down ...if you wait long enough and gamble it falls apart it never existed because it was never named.

Some people call that Denial.

If the area that was predicted to intensify and be tracked develops...then we pay attention to it...

Im sorry, not into playing politics here... think and have always thought the area to worry on it more in the central Gulf north of the Yucatan.

Its a shell game... NHC has shown more interest under the shell closest to Mexico/Texas..so much so that Lyons wrote off anything but a westward bound storm yesterday and they almost had that last night when it looked like the dominant system but I suppose they didnt believe in it enough or they would have named it. Good thing too because..area in central Gulf is HOT again.

Shifting Storms... think no one is posting right now cause no one NO ONE wants to go too much on record here as to what they think.

Of course.. Bastardi has... he's the one putting his neck on the chopping block... got to respect him for that ..whether you like his game or not..got to respect him.

And..he's getting paid for saying how he feels. Go figure.

While everyone around here is looking at the sats and holding back their thoughts.



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Area north of the Yucatan
      #13535 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:26 AM

i ask yesterday about this becoming two systems. it looks like on the i/r that the blob in the BOC and the one in the yucatan maybe combining. the one that is in the GOM appears to have a somewhat slight spin to it. does anyone else see this? 10:30 still no name. we have a bar here and that is its name. no name bar. wonder if we will have any problems from no name storm?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Isabel's Aftermath & 90L
      #13536 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM

Right now, at least on sat IR loops, 90L(arry) seems to be intensifying and is now moving wnw...towards Texas. Will definitely need to be watched closely. Models are widely divergent in their potential tracks. However, the BAMD takes 90L west, then almost due east for a strike on Key West. The LBAR similarly takes 90L west, and loops it back east, for a LA coast strike . I'm no met, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'll bet that 90L does indeed become Larry (at least TS Larry), posing a minor threat to the entire GOM from Texas to FL.

As for Isabel's aftermath, take a look at some of these pictures. If there is anyone out there who just might like a taste of a CAT 2, check these out and think again. This is from Hattaras, not Morehead City. I imagine the destruction is even worse there:

http://www.hatterasonmymind.com/Isabel.html

90L Modeling:

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Area north of the Yucatan
      #13537 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM

Well the blob might be bigger north of the Yucatan, but size in this case may NOT matter.

I can't find any definitive circulation in the big blob at the moment...maybe it's hidden under all the clouds... I doubt it .....

However, you look at the GOES vis sat loop and there is a definite spin and circulation at 20.3N and 93.9W... drifting slowly west... IMO...

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 01 2003 10:40 PM)


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