Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially over. June 1st-Nov 30th, 2014 for the next.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 540 (Sandy) , in Florida: 3102 (8 y 5 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: BOC
      #13538 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:29 PM

Kinda reminds me of Bill earlier this season this might just go by the depression phase.The BOC seems to have the twist and it seems that new convection is starting to fill the NE quadarant.The new air to the N(CONUS) looks to be going further E more ESE maybe?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: BOC
      #13539 - Wed Oct 01 2003 01:12 PM

Looks like it might be losing its' punch. web page

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: BOC
      #13540 - Wed Oct 01 2003 01:50 PM

Actually, I think the circulation looks better, and a small bit of convection has developed near it. Although some of the convection has died, that convection was farther from the center.

Latest recon was a 46 kt W-WNW wind (290 degrees) at 20.0/93.5.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded at 5. Then again, I wouldn't be suprised if it's not. Depends on how that convection near the center evolves, and whether the NHC thinks it's separated enough from the front.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
jumping through hoops
      #13541 - Wed Oct 01 2003 02:11 PM

joe b excerpt last night made a convincing argument that this is a tropical storm. i can see the fact that it's got a frontal tail nearby, but honestly, what's this thing got to do for NHC to see larry and not a frontal low? i mean c'mon, notice that last night the recon gave a TROPICAL CYCLONE vortex message.
anyhow, model runs on larry/low divergent as can be.. but not trending to mexico quite so much. there's only so much you can gather from them when you consider how they probably aren't initialized quite right.
as for kate.. NHC mentioned the NOGAPS solution i was thinking of earlier.. explained the reasoning behind it some. the recurvature next week forecast does make more sense.. like the official.
the other watch areas.. bahamas-bermuda and azores-canaries. mid latitude fish spinner candidates... nobody cares except people like me trying to tag development days down the road. long range stuff (gfs) is pointing to more pattern-triggered activity well down the road, more stuff to monitor.
HF 1812z01october


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
you know.........
      #13542 - Wed Oct 01 2003 02:38 PM

always learned that one of the main areas of tropical cyclone formation in certain months was at the tail end of FRONTAL ZONES...

old fronts
old stalled out fronts

why is this suddenly some problem?

in my thinking it would be only normal to look for formation there in the month of October



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
new vortex message
      #13543 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:01 PM

000
URNT12 KNHC 011833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1833Z
B. 21 DEG 16 MIN N
93 DEG 11 MIN W
C. NA
D. 25 KT
E. 159 DEG 40 NM
F. 206 DEG 26 KT
G. 159 DEG 040 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 294 M
J. 26 C/ 205 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 46 KT S QUAD 1738Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JimAnderson
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
Re: Isabel's Aftermath & 90L
      #13544 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:12 PM Attachment (303 downloads)

Concerning the Hattaras Photos. I just finished a week and a half at the NC Emergency Operations Center/FEMA Disaster Field Office for Hurricane Isabel in NC.

A few points about Isabel. FEMA and NC prepared for a Cat 3/4 storm that thankfully hit at only Cat 2 strength. This was enough, however to create the problems on Hatteras Island. The most critical problem is the isolation of Hattaras Village (275 people). The Ocracoke Ferry from Ocracoke Island to Hattaras Island had its channel filled in and needs to be dredged.

Second, just north of Hattaras Village, Isabel opened a new inlet to Pamlico Sound. On Friday the 19th it was 300 feet wide/10 feet deep. By the 25th, it was 2000 feet wide and still growing. This inlet cut power, water, and sewage to/from Hattaras Village.

This isolation of Hattaras Village is probably the most critical remaining result of Isabel. Interestingly, this area of Hattaras Island had an inlet in the '30s that was being bridged by an FDR WPA project when a Hurricane hit that filled in the inlet. After that storm, the WPA built a road (NC12) instead. Hurricane Isabel's Inlet is exposing the old bridge pylons.

The Army Corps of Engineers has been tasked to fill in the Inlet so the road can be rebuilt. OY VEY! Messing with Mother Nature.

Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: new vortex message
      #13545 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM

The 2 pm est tropical model runs initialize 90L as a 40kt tropical storm. Interesting, considering the flight level winds are weaker than yesterday, when it was initialized as a 30kt depression (ditto for this morning's runs).

I wonder if this means the NHC is considering naming it. Pure speculation, of course, but what the hell -- why not speculate.

Also, the latest runs of all 4 of those models eventually bring 90L east. Of course they've been all over the place, so I suspect they'll change again, but I think that's the first time since at least Friday or Saturday when all four bring it east. (The still do so at markedly different latitudes and in markedly different time frames.)



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: new vortex message
      #13546 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM

I meant: "They still do so...," not "The still do so"

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: new vortex message
      #13547 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:26 PM

Almost forgot: Kate is initialized as a 65kt hurricane in that run of the tropical models. No surprise, given the 11am discussion and her appearence right now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Second vortex data message
      #13548 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:36 PM

Higher winds, lower pressure:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2014Z
B. 21 DEG 04 MIN N
93 DEG 41 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 212 DEG 47 NM
F. 283 DEG 56 KT
G. 215 DEG 062 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 23 C/ 341 M
J. 25 C/ 355 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 1955Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Second vortex data message
      #13549 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:41 PM

The second vortex fix is about 32 miles west of the first one, and less than two hours later. Pretty quick movement, or center reformation, or just a broad, poorly defined center?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
No TD in the GOM; TD in EastPac
      #13550 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:45 PM

As of 5:00, still no TD in the GOM, however, the EastPac just got TD14...maybe at 11:00?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
What is going on??
      #13551 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:18 PM

I guess the NHC may have a point. But from my experience, I've seen worse looking systems classified as depressions. How can they not classify this and yet they did classify Grace in September?

Are they saying it isnt tropical enough?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: What is going on??
      #13552 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:21 PM

Alex: here's the 530 post about the NHC's thoughts:

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MEANDERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
sounds about right
      #13553 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:23 PM

I'll consider what they said a resonable comprimise. No sense in rushing it

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What is going on??
      #13554 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:26 PM

I have to agree Alex. From the latest sat loops, it sure looks like Larry-2-B is tightening up. Without another flight into it, though, I'm wondering if we'll get a TD by 11:00. Sure looks like it could at the very least be a TD by now.

GO MARLINS! 4-4 in the 5th!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
HEY JASON
      #13555 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:28 PM

Jason, I see you online...what's your take on this?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: What is going on??
      #13556 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:33 PM

Phil:

First, because the sustained winds are already at tropical storm force, it probably would be classified as a storm, not a depression. (You mentioned the chances of being classified as a depression at 11pm.)

Second, the NHC won't necessarily wait for another flight to go in to classify it. Satellite imagery will show if thunderstorm activity consolidates around the center and if the low pulls farther away from the front.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What is going on??
      #13557 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:36 PM

Brad: I wouldn't argue against it already being a TS. Just figured they'd make it a TD first, although, as you and others have pointed out, it wouldn't be the first time NHC skipped the TD phase. We'll see at 11:00 what they determine.

Thanks for the info!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 5 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 32336

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center