javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Kinda reminds me of Bill earlier this season this might just go by the depression phase.The BOC seems to have the twist and it seems that new convection is starting to fill the NE quadarant.The new air to the N(CONUS) looks to be going further E more ESE maybe?
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Looks like it might be losing its' punch. web page
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Actually, I think the circulation looks better, and a small bit of convection has developed near it. Although some of the convection has died, that convection was farther from the center.
Latest recon was a 46 kt W-WNW wind (290 degrees) at 20.0/93.5.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded at 5. Then again, I wouldn't be suprised if it's not. Depends on how that convection near the center evolves, and whether the thinks it's separated enough from the front.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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joe b excerpt last night made a convincing argument that this is a tropical storm. i can see the fact that it's got a frontal tail nearby, but honestly, what's this thing got to do for to see larry and not a frontal low? i mean c'mon, notice that last night the recon gave a TROPICAL CYCLONE vortex message.
anyhow, model runs on larry/low divergent as can be.. but not trending to mexico quite so much. there's only so much you can gather from them when you consider how they probably aren't initialized quite right.
as for kate.. mentioned the solution i was thinking of earlier.. explained the reasoning behind it some. the recurvature next week forecast does make more sense.. like the official.
the other watch areas.. bahamas-bermuda and azores-canaries. mid latitude fish spinner candidates... nobody cares except people like me trying to tag development days down the road. long range stuff (gfs) is pointing to more pattern-triggered activity well down the road, more stuff to monitor.
HF 1812z01october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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always learned that one of the main areas of tropical cyclone formation in certain months was at the tail end of FRONTAL ZONES...
old fronts
old stalled out fronts
why is this suddenly some problem?
in my thinking it would be only normal to look for formation there in the month of October
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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000
URNT12 KNHC 011833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1833Z
B. 21 DEG 16 MIN N
93 DEG 11 MIN W
C. NA
D. 25 KT
E. 159 DEG 40 NM
F. 206 DEG 26 KT
G. 159 DEG 040 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 294 M
J. 26 C/ 205 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 46 KT S QUAD 1738Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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JimAnderson
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
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Concerning the Hattaras Photos. I just finished a week and a half at the NC Emergency Operations Center/FEMA Disaster Field Office for Hurricane Isabel in NC.
A few points about Isabel. FEMA and NC prepared for a Cat 3/4 storm that thankfully hit at only Cat 2 strength. This was enough, however to create the problems on Hatteras Island. The most critical problem is the isolation of Hattaras Village (275 people). The Ocracoke Ferry from Ocracoke Island to Hattaras Island had its channel filled in and needs to be dredged.
Second, just north of Hattaras Village, Isabel opened a new inlet to Pamlico Sound. On Friday the 19th it was 300 feet wide/10 feet deep. By the 25th, it was 2000 feet wide and still growing. This inlet cut power, water, and sewage to/from Hattaras Village.
This isolation of Hattaras Village is probably the most critical remaining result of Isabel. Interestingly, this area of Hattaras Island had an inlet in the '30s that was being bridged by an FDR WPA project when a Hurricane hit that filled in the inlet. After that storm, the WPA built a road (NC12) instead. Hurricane Isabel's Inlet is exposing the old bridge pylons.
The Army Corps of Engineers has been tasked to fill in the Inlet so the road can be rebuilt. OY VEY! Messing with Mother Nature.
Jim
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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The 2 pm est tropical model runs initialize 90L as a 40kt tropical storm. Interesting, considering the flight level winds are weaker than yesterday, when it was initialized as a 30kt depression (ditto for this morning's runs).
I wonder if this means the is considering naming it. Pure speculation, of course, but what the hell -- why not speculate.
Also, the latest runs of all 4 of those models eventually bring 90L east. Of course they've been all over the place, so I suspect they'll change again, but I think that's the first time since at least Friday or Saturday when all four bring it east. (The still do so at markedly different latitudes and in markedly different time frames.)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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I meant: "They still do so...," not "The still do so"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Almost forgot: Kate is initialized as a 65kt hurricane in that run of the tropical models. No surprise, given the 11am discussion and her appearence right now.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Higher winds, lower pressure:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2014Z
B. 21 DEG 04 MIN N
93 DEG 41 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 212 DEG 47 NM
F. 283 DEG 56 KT
G. 215 DEG 062 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 23 C/ 341 M
J. 25 C/ 355 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 1955Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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The second vortex fix is about 32 miles west of the first one, and less than two hours later. Pretty quick movement, or center reformation, or just a broad, poorly defined center?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As of 5:00, still no TD in the GOM, however, the EastPac just got TD14...maybe at 11:00?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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I guess the may have a point. But from my experience, I've seen worse looking systems classified as depressions. How can they not classify this and yet they did classify Grace in September?
Are they saying it isnt tropical enough?
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Alex: here's the 530 post about the 's thoughts:
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MEANDERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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I'll consider what they said a resonable comprimise. No sense in rushing it
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I have to agree Alex. From the latest sat loops, it sure looks like Larry-2-B is tightening up. Without another flight into it, though, I'm wondering if we'll get a TD by 11:00. Sure looks like it could at the very least be a TD by now.
GO MARLINS! 4-4 in the 5th! 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Jason, I see you online...what's your take on this?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Phil:
First, because the sustained winds are already at tropical storm force, it probably would be classified as a storm, not a depression. (You mentioned the chances of being classified as a depression at 11pm.)
Second, the won't necessarily wait for another flight to go in to classify it. Satellite imagery will show if thunderstorm activity consolidates around the center and if the low pulls farther away from the front.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Brad: I wouldn't argue against it already being a TS. Just figured they'd make it a TD first, although, as you and others have pointed out, it wouldn't be the first time skipped the TD phase. We'll see at 11:00 what they determine.
Thanks for the info! 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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