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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2294
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Next System?
      #13456 - Mon Sep 29 2003 02:15 PM

Monday Evening Update

As noted in the TWD earlier this afternoon, the poorly organized center, if you could call it that, has energized further west. At 21Z, the closest thing that I could find with any rotation at all was near 22.4N 88.6W and it was stationary. The overall structure is less well defined than it was 24 hours ago and if the weak center continues to rebuild further to the west, the likelyhood of development will decrease since the upper air environment becomes more hostile. If nothing else, it looks like 90L will be noted for its rainfall from the Yucatan to south Florida.

Original Post

After a short stall south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, Sunday evening, the circulation center of Invest 90L moved in a general northward direction during the night...and it still is, at 10 knots. At 17Z the center was near 22.3N 87.0W, or just to the north of the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The system is still poorly organized but seems to be ever so slowly getting its act together. Water temps are toasty, shear is light (except to the north) and convection predominates to the east of the center. A new area of convection is developing, aided by orographic lift over the northern Yucatan, to the south of the center.

Water vapor imagery defines an eventual northeast to east northeast movement, so even if it doesn't make it much past TD stage because of the increasing shear to the north, it will certainly shove a lot of moisture toward Florida. With a stalled front over central Florida, over-running of moist tropical air will produce plenty of rain for the southern half of the not-so-sunshiney peninsula for the next few days. Flood Watches are already in place for most of central and south Florida. I'd anticipate TD 17 sometime tonight.

Hurricane Juan is gone, but not before bringing gusts of 85 to 90mph to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island shortly after midnight (ET) last night. Kate continues to meander in the central Atlantic and will continue to do so for a few more days. Kate is likely to become the sixth hurricane of the season.

The rest of the basin is quiet and nothing new is on the horizon. Africa is very quiet. The last wave off of the African coast evaporated in less than 12 hours - signs that the Cape Verde season has closed down for the year.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: The Next System?
      #13457 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:11 PM

Good name for a topic. Do we have one or not is the question.

Gray rainy day in Miami... imagine will get nastier..saw the radar. Boy all that rain down there, imagine if anyone is doing film work round here or post production work it must be costing them a fortune to sit around and wait for the rain to end.

Guess that's nature's revenge or joke on them.

No Sunny Days in Miami... not for the rest of the week it seems.

So... something with a name organized going to form or will it be just rain.

Keep watching.. same bat message board, same bat message posters

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 29
ship observations
      #13458 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:15 PM

A ship around 20.8 and 87.6 reported winds at 22kts and 29.78 pressure. It may be a weak depression

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ship observations
      #13459 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:35 PM

2PM TWD:

1007 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
20N87W DRIFTING WEST. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST ROTATION
IS RE-FORMING OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...VIRTUALLY
ALL OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLVED INTO A
LINEAR BAND EXTENDING FROM COZUMEL EWD TO SOUTH/CNTRL CUBA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DRIFTS WWD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BUT THE TSTMS WILL FIRST HAVE TO FORM AND ORGANIZE NEAR THE
CENTER. REGARDLESS...SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA CAN EXPECT THESE
RAINS TO CONTINUE.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Juan damage
      #13460 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:42 PM

Here's a link about Juan's storm damage in Nova Scotia, Can.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/09/29/juan030929

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: The Next System?
      #13461 - Mon Sep 29 2003 04:00 PM

We are already getting gusts at 21 mph here on the beach. I don't know if it is related to the next system or not but overcast all day and about an inch or two of rain here so far.

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Hello Larry?
      #13463 - Mon Sep 29 2003 05:10 PM

Nothing official after the 5:00 update, 90L will be investigated tomorrow...right now, two models are showing west coast strikes: LBAR just south of Panama City & BAMD between Sarasota & Tampa/St. Pete...will need to be watched.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html


--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
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Re: Hello Larry?
      #13464 - Mon Sep 29 2003 05:43 PM

convection will have to start building around the NW yucatan for this thing to start tightening.. there is a more defined, large scale turning than there was before. models not clustered in any way on this thing, 5pm twd speaks of less favorable conditions.. a more vague picture is given for forecast development. very uncertain right now, but if anything is going to go.. its probably the sw gulf.
HF 2143z29september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
Watch and Wait mode...
      #13465 - Mon Sep 29 2003 06:31 PM

Watched Norcross on the wxr tonight, seemed not committed to anything specific forming... either way florida is in the flow.

Cannot imagine heavier rain from a named system than we had this afternoon ...for about an hour

streets are totally flooded....

Still watching...still waiting...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Watch and Wait mode...
      #13466 - Mon Sep 29 2003 06:45 PM

After days of expected development the forecast is not as pro-development as before. Lots of moisture out there.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
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Definite western circulation...but
      #13467 - Mon Sep 29 2003 07:15 PM

It is isolated from convection and there is much shear nearby, I wonder if there is a spin where the deep convection is(East of the yucatan)

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57497479
Weather Master


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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Watch and Wait mode...
      #13468 - Mon Sep 29 2003 07:23 PM

Hey Bobbi, hope you have your boots close by! Looks like you are going to be in the flow for a while. No doubt about it, it doesn't take a named system to produce some severe flooding. We had some rain in my area earlier today but have had none for a few hours now,expect it to start again later tonight though. Just caught Lyons on TWC, his take was that south Florida will see the NE blow off but the actual low will move into the BOC and on into Mexico. Can't totally buy that idea right now, need more in-put. Stay dry!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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a blow off trail????
      #13469 - Mon Sep 29 2003 08:53 PM

Thats some blow off trail... I mean... IF that was going to happen then I would think the shear would be so strong that it wouldnt let the system form...

Is there a meteorological name for that?

Going to watch Monday Night Football...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13470 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:22 PM

yeah, but very little shear south of there. thats what we're looking for.. the low tightening south of the hostile environment to the north. elongated low axis now.. the piece that matters is over the yucatan between merida and campeche.
HF 0122z30september


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
blip of convection
      #13471 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:51 PM

A little bit of convection is trying to build around the low level center. Will it stick?

And on a totally unrelated note-does anyone have estimates for the horrible damged caused by Isabel?


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13472 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:56 PM

Hey, I would be afraid to guess on that one Bobbi, but I am sure that if you put Lyons on the spot he would come up with something that sounds more offical. After all that's what he does best. Well, no matter what its called Bobbi, it's in your back yard!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13473 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:07 PM

This stuff is looking much tamer tonight than this morning. I think the Mouse ears and Other storm interference stuff is in the works. We are going to see some rain, but I'll bet South of Central Florida Gets the most beginning in Sarasota County and further south. The trails of rain/clouds will split up once they Get to Tampa Bay. There is definitely something on each side of us that is keeping us somewhat safe,. A military base on one side, A space program on the other, and a World Entertainment Center in the middle. Who could begin to estimate the possible damage of a CAT 2 or above? I think I will stick to rain showers in my personal forecast.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004
      #13474 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:32 PM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Steve here are the latest model runs for ENSO and show a continuation of neutral conditions until may 2004.So I think that if this trend continues we will see an active 2004 hurricane season.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004
      #13475 - Mon Sep 29 2003 11:15 PM

hey cyc, nice stuff. ought to be helpful this november when everybody is trying to peg the storm totals for 2004.
funny that NHC upgraded kate to hurricane now that the convection is shearing off. guess that banding eye was legit.
90L is weaker than before, pressures in the region are higher overall than yesterday. a patch of subsidence is along the western coast of the yucatan.. being chewed away at, and probably blocking any deep convection from forming where the upper support is. still wait-see if anything can get going over there.. otherwise 90L will be unviable.
HF 0315z30september


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
90L fighting
      #13476 - Tue Sep 30 2003 06:39 AM

A big blowup of convection near the supposed center of 90L. Will it persist?

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: 90L fighting
      #13477 - Tue Sep 30 2003 07:25 AM

Those red blobs on the WV look like the three tenors lining up for their next performance. It is difficult if not impossible to see a hint of circulation. At this point, it looks like a 3 punch rain front.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Everyone look at this loop please... strange
      #13478 - Tue Sep 30 2003 07:33 AM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Okay and note the last few frames..

This is one of the stranger set ups of the year if you ask me.

Looks more like orange halloween blobs tap dancing their way north east to follow the orange brick road up the Eastern Seaboard with a stop in Miami or Orlando depending on which models you want to buy into.

After days of convection lingering around the yucatan it oozes over and explodes in the Bay of Campeche... spits out another blob like some sort of morfing cloned blob and convection "appears" in the mid Gulf as well "north of the yucatan" on the last frame as of 7:27 am another blob "appears" in a straight line closer to SE Florida. If I was living in Naples I'd take the day off...go out onto the roof and use binoculars looking for aliens..

This system looks like the Hurricane that was beamed up by Scotty if it hits Florida and not sure that even Lyons could make sense of this pattern. I'm sure Bastardi will try. I'm sure Cantore is staring at his color water vapor going WOWOW oh WOW MAN or whatever he does while drooling in ectasy over something so meteorologically messy.

All I know is at this point you have to take the end result and work on where its going maybe and not how its getting there.

There may be twisting in the Bay of Campeche but at the moment Naples looks like its under attack from some old Gallactica Battleship Game on the old Color Computer..a few hits away from being blown off the map.

Should be flooding rains over Florida today.

Yes I know whats in my backyard, might go out and dance in the rain if I get the chance. Wave back Of course for dancing in the rain I prefer the front yard.



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Everyone look at this loop please... strange
      #13479 - Tue Sep 30 2003 08:00 AM

LOL Bobbi, late for work have to run.... just don't do any rain dances ok Have to agree that is an interesting looking set up out there. If one blob doesn't get us maybe the other one will. Catch ya later tonight!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Shell game...choose one
      #13480 - Tue Sep 30 2003 08:06 AM

ok..so i say the mess in BOC is its own entity, been there and its own mass...mess...whatever

Area in the middle is the one to watch and came off the yucatan or was fed from the area over the yucatan that has carried with it in the Carib a right arm of moisture that looked at times like a seperate mass, at times like a band..

http://www.floridastormnet.com/weather/gulfinfraredloop.htm

there's a view...
unisys enhanced is old fashioned but cool

have a good day
will check back later and see if anyone has any thoughts

trust me...might dance in the rain toni but not a rain dance

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13481 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:25 AM

I believe your right Lois pick the middle one.I have read talks of shear,looks like little to me.A significant amount to the N in associiation with the trof.I would have to agree panhandle E but when,Would of thought the trof would have taken care of that by now.Up here along the coast dry 58 mornings 79 days and the humidity 50 excellent.Another high expected in 36-48hrs.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13482 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:11 AM

Odd setup for sure. I had the opportunity to read Joe Bastardi this morning before I left for work. He's put together this insane possibility of how it ends up in his hurricane landfall zone #3 - the Central Gulf Coast. Now 'his' central gulf coast isn't the Louisiana zone, it's Boothville (mouth of MS River) to Apalachacola, FL. That and South Florida are his only two landfall zones with hits remaining. It's pretty bizarre how he arrives at a hit on (I think he said) Sunday or Monday there as a hurricane. I'll post some excerpts from his column because this is obviously of interest to everyone east of me. He's got tons on caveats including the low pressure not being drawn into Mexico by a high pressure, but I'll let him tell you. Let me say this, if he hits this thing, he's going down as all time guru (especially if the South Florida landfall zone gets its Hurricane score later).
------------------------------------------------------
Ah yes, the Gulf - the next headache, and of course one we thought was coming on. The tropical disturbance between Cozumel and Cancun yesterday is now off the northwest tip of the Yucatan. It sent a piece northeastward now east of Florida and with it came a biblical deluge in southwest Florida. Another piece is coming out now, but it should not be as heavy as the core of the system is moving to the west. In the meantime, low pressure has formed to its southwest on the front. The two should combine later today and tomorrow and be near 20 north, 95 west, as at least a tropical storm Thursday morning. Gales and 15-foot seas are already occurring in the west central Gulf, and this system has a good chance, if indeed it consolidates and stays over the water, to become a hurricane.

My call here (and in the face of uncertainty like this, I will freely admit I would need divine guidance to hit) is that this sits around Thursday, then starts northward Friday and turns northeastward Saturday, reaching the central Gulf Coast Sunday or Monday (zone 3 on my hurricane forecast chart, not the pattern overview zone 3.) With it being Tuesday, and with no solid center, one can understand the comment above. With the bulk of the modeling just killing it, one can also understand the comment above. However, the overall pattern looks like it can happen. The upper ridge over Mexico will try to steer it inland Thursday night or Friday, but if we still have it over the water Friday, then it's going to be a big problem for someone over the weekend or early next week. Maybe it's the new coffee I was sent by a faithful reader (in fact, the best coffee I have ever tasted) which has a name with "Monsoon" in it, but I feel as if there is plenty of reason to at least give you readers an honest attempt at hitting this thing this morning. Whether it rivals some of the other long-range Gulf calls made this year, or the 9-day idea that Isabel would get back to 80 west and hit the United States, well, let's see. In any case, I am making the forecast for development and then the turn toward the central Gulf Coast this weekend as a starting point for this, even though I can see the way it could crash and burn before getting off the ground.

To show you how crazy the modeling is, there is little agreement on the pattern in Europe on Kate. The UKMET takes the storm eastward over the next five days, and the U.S. models take it westward. The upgrade to a hurricane last night, in the face of some of the other "pulling teeth" things that have gone on this year, looks like it blew up. The system is being yanked around by the upper low that I think the models are thinking is Kate and moving westward when it actually may just be system that developed on its own using part of Kate's energy ( the Obi-Wan effect I have written about.) One thing is for sure - if it did develop, it could not be named "Edith" because, as we all know, you can't have your Kate and Edith too!

But here is something to chew on. While agreement is all hunky-dory as to how the Pacific flow flattens, and that the jet breaks through, real problems start over North America and the Atlantic as far as what to do with different systems down the road. Sound familiar (last year)? If one looks at the water-temperature profile, (and I will be showing it on the Long Ranger) two things stand out like a frostbitten thumb. Of the winters that turned colder than normal in the East, the last two out of three had the Atlantic warm and had large pools of warm water in the gulf of Alaska. The winters of our discontent had much colder water in the gulf of Alaska and strong signaling going on (La Nina). But with this pattern flip coming up, and the uncertainty surrounding it both on the northern and southern fronts, the relevance to winter is something we can talk about later.

One more thing...I am seeing things that are getting me to think that in 7-14 days, once rid of any Gulf problems, Caribbean problems may be of concern. More on that if it starts to show.


Note and aside: The cloud shot this morning looks a little like Michelangelo's painting on the Sistine Chapel, with one mass of thunderstorms reaching to touch the other mass.
------------------------------------------------------
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
90L and kate
      #13483 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:22 AM

convection coming back to the area of 90L this morning.. so that's not a question at the moment. NHC's twd now pointing to interaction with the front as a mechanism to slow or prevent development.. of course as the front decays it can become a help and not a hinderance. be interested to see if they'll get a plane down there today, like they always say, and never seem to do. it doesn't look imminent, but not bad either. models.. mostly retaining a trough/low down there, and pushing whatever is there into mexico, or squashing it out as the trough over the east amplifies. the 00Z CMC run is the most vigorous of the lot.. and you know that model is often bonkers... it has a system east of brownsville in 5 days drifting NE. my take right now is the status quo.. with slow organization in the bay of campeche and erratic motion of anything that may develop.. until the next amplification is past and the pattern to the north flattens and lets the system start north. Opal-esque if something forms.
kate.. mentioning it because it's going to be with us for a while. essentially every model has it with us in five-six days.. with some disagreement on exactly where. the eastern camp drifts it around out there near the azores.. but in general tend to loop it back west to some degree. the western camp stalls it briefly and accelerates it westward, deepening, then alternately turns it nw or even sw (nogaps) within 500 mi of bermuda in 4-6 days. watch for that NOGAPS take.. that would give us an erratic longtrack mid-latitude system.
waves looking lame, even with some ridging east of the islands. in about 3-4 days some modeling creating a low along the front edge of the east coast trough, out near bermuda.. then leaving it to drift out there as the trough lifts some. none forecasting a great deal of development.. but it will probably interact with kate if kate gets back that far west.
HF 1423z30september


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13484 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:38 AM

Bastardi is doing some major wishcasting in an effort to nail down his landfall scoring system not quite sure he even understands his own system. Although all the convection on the front looks impressive Florida NWS offices sure aren't too impressed by the looks of the discussions this morning. I think at this point the opinion of HF's 20 year old met student is worth as much if not more than Bastardi...at least she won't be nearly as tainted as Bastardi as far as having to keep up a reputation with some quirky landfalling system score. Enjoy watching the three blobs today because its the only blobs we got.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 30 2003 02:42 PM)


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13485 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:44 AM

LOL, if you get tired of meterology you can always go into puns r'us buisness. HA HA

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: 90L and kate
      #13486 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:17 AM

In the 1130 outlook the NHC wrote that recon "will" (no longer "might") investigate 90L this afternoon:

RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 90L and kate
      #13487 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:21 AM

Yeah, looks like they are focusing on the central blob and not the one in the BOC.... looking better or the vis loops...

"A large...broad area of low pressure...with winds gusting to gale force in the central Gulf of Mexico... is located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and continues to drift northwest".


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13488 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:22 AM

"11am TWD says that a plane will be sent" (sic). I'll wait tell it actually takes off and is sending reports back before I assume that blob of convection is amounting to anything but the convection continues to deepen and the cloud tops are cooling. Pick a blob to apply the preceding description.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by stormchazer (Tue Sep 30 2003 11:25 AM)


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Steve
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13489 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:23 AM

jl,

I don't disagree with you on that, but he himself gives two reasons why it could be argued against what he's inferring. He's not made his 'official call' but you're going to have to come clean if Leisure Suit Larry is there on Thursday and begins heading north toward TX/LA thereafter (prior to a curve NE).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 30 2003 02:45 PM)


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stormchazer
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Re: 90L and kate
      #13490 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:35 AM

Ship obs in area of 25.17n 94.42w reports 19 knot winds sustain gusting to 25. Pressures not paticularly low though.

--------------------
Jara

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Brad in Miami
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Re: 90L and kate
      #13491 - Tue Sep 30 2003 12:05 PM

How low was the pressure Jara? That's pretty far NW of the deep convection.

Yesterday there were some ships closer to the low center (or rather, what was the low center at that time) that reported 29 kt sustained winds. Based on that and the NHC's reference to gale force winds (which I think are sustained at 45 mph? anyone able to confirm or correct that?), presumably the winds are higher and the pressure is lower closer to the center (assuming a low center still exists) and the deep convection.


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javlin
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13492 - Tue Sep 30 2003 12:20 PM

Interesting take by JB on this but we have a high in place granted Temps are going up this WE.Is this the high loosing its grip.Well until it explodes not a whole lot of concern as of yet.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 30 2003 02:48 PM)


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Steve
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Gale Force Winds
      #13493 - Tue Sep 30 2003 12:24 PM

In Austraila, they are 34-47kn (storm force considered > 47), but in the United States they're considered 39mph+.
---------------------------------------------------
Watched the TU on Acwx. Joe B. freely admitted that this being Tuesday, divine guidance would be required for him to hit his Central Gulf forecast for Sun-Mon. He continued to note the fact that there would be a tendancy for a yank toward the Mexican coast, but he likes the idea of a stall there Thursday/Friday. He referenced the ETA which appears to agree with his calll more than any of the other models at this time as it shows a system cutting SE from NM/AZ that would kick Larry off to the N then NE. The ETA 60 hour rainfall potential in the Gulf has a couple of 10"+ swaths in the Gulf. Then at 84, the 24 hour totals approach the previous 60. Let me see if I can find a good link to the ETA (might have to use NCEP or FNMOC):

Nah. All my Unisys links are dead (as are ATWC.org's). So you get the NCEP:

NCEP ETA Model Page

Now the 12Z ETA is far less bullish at 84 hours than was the 6z or 00Z runs. So that should be considered. Nonetheless, it's still got a blob SSE from Brownsville. Therefore, ETA is still anticipating that the storm won't get drawn into Mexico.

Steve

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andy1tom
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13494 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:13 PM

could it be possible (not probable) for this blob to split into 2 separt systems. that is almost what i see. have i looked at loops too long??

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Steve
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13495 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:18 PM

Sure it would. But organization would come through simplification (combination in this case). The 2nd splitoff is heading toward SW FL, but I haven't checked the radars yet to see what of that mass is heading toward the Peni(n)sula.

Here's the day-time high res courtesy of TNRCC:

High Res Courtesy of TNRCC

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13496 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:29 PM

Andy: For the last hour or so, I've thought it looked like MLC's or LLC's were trying to form in both blobs. I'm not sure if that's just me seeing things (I think that's probably the case), or if that's what's really going on. I think we need a few more images in the loops to get a better idea.

I suspect if that is what's happening, 1 will quickly become dominant. It's unlikely 2 would persist, particularly because they likely will interact with each other to some degree. (And I don't think it's that unusual to temporarily have a couple of weak circulations within a broad area of low pressure/trough like this, but getting 2 separate, organized systems is not likely.)


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andy1tom
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13497 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:38 PM

thanks, i didn't think it was probable. i just keep seeing circulation on the one in the sw and the center one. the blob heading towards fla didn't appear to have any circulation to it and i figured it was just a blow off caught in the front that had stalled. looks like if it makes to fla. they are gonna have a major rain fall again today

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13498 - Tue Sep 30 2003 01:39 PM

But of course, it is possible....just unlikely.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13499 - Tue Sep 30 2003 02:58 PM

Ships report from 20.7, 93.5 (in the bay of campeche blob) reported winds from 340 degrees (just west of due north) at 24.1 knots. Interesting - a bit of a westward component. The plane's in there now, so we'll see if that verifies and if the plane finds a more westward component.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13500 - Tue Sep 30 2003 03:27 PM

On the west side of the other blob, the one north of the Yucatan (at 23.7/90.7), recon found a SSW to SW wind (200 degrees) of 21 knots at an altitude of about 5630 meters (18470+/- feet).

So reports of winds that have at least some westward component in both blobs. Curious if zero, one, or both blobs will result in vortex messages.

What a mess out there. Not to mention outside here, in Miami. It's ugly out.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Shell game...choose one
      #13501 - Tue Sep 30 2003 03:30 PM

Actually, anyone know if that 18000+ foot reading even translates to the surface? Or is it too high?

Looks like at a lower altitude (1200-1300 feet), a little farther west in the Yucatan blob, the plane found N-NNE winds. Perhaps that's a more accurate indication of surface wind direction in blob #1.


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AlexK
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90L
      #13502 - Tue Sep 30 2003 04:44 PM

does anyone know if they(the recon)found any kind of closed circulation. I assume if they did it would be with the low in the BOC

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Brad in Miami
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Re: 90L
      #13503 - Tue Sep 30 2003 04:51 PM

Alex:

The plane is focusing on the BOC area, but it has not sent back a vortex message, so I don't think it's found a closed circulation.

The plane has made at least one observation of a wind just west of south (200 degrees) in the BOC area, so we'll see what else it finds.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: 90L
      #13504 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:00 PM

My mistake about one thing, Alex. Just looked at the net-waves.net plots, and the plane is focusing on an area between the two "blobs," which really aren't as distinct anymore. It's closer to that deepest blob of convection in the BOC (or at least where it was earlier today) than it is to the blob north of the Yucatan, but it's really between the two.

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Colleen A.
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Re: 90L
      #13505 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:04 PM

Hey all....just woke up after Isabel.

Watching Jeannetta Jones on TWC, she stated at the 3:50pm Tropical Update that the "NHC is beginning to be a bit more concerned with this one [points to middle blob] and there is a recon plane out there right now trying to get some more information, but people along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye on this."

I have not seen any vortex data yet, which usually means that they haven't found anything all that exciting. Yet.

Toodooloo!

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Colleen A.
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Re: 90L and kate
      #13506 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:10 PM

WE have been under a Flood Watch since Monday. I have yet to see a raindrop today. I have a headache, I'm grouchy and I have to go sit for 2 hours at football practice and get eaten alive by mosquitos.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
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New Kate Models
      #13507 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:18 PM

Welcome back Colleen. Lest we forget about Kate, she's still out there spinning the fish. However, the models now all seem to be in much better agreement about bringing her back due west. I still think she'll continue to churn the chum, but there may be an outside shot at her making a run at Bermuda or Newfoundland. As for 90L...looks like Larry may be taking up residence in the Carribbean, not the gulf. Let's see what the planes report. Check out the modeling on Kate:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200316_model.html

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Brad in Miami
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Re: New Kate Models
      #13508 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:22 PM

Phil:

"As for 90L...looks like Larry may be taking up residence in the Carribbean, not the gulf."

What do you mean by that? Is any part of 90L still even in the Caribbean?


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Brad in Miami
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Weak circulation found, but no depression
      #13509 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:23 PM

From the 530 tropical outlook:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
REPORTED A POORLY-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT OR NEAR THE TAIL
END OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AND THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT FOUND
ANY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS...UP TO
25-30 MPH...ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND HEAVY
RAINS OVER FLORIDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.


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LI Phil
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Re: New Kate Models
      #13510 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:25 PM

No. I meant that 90L may not make it to "name strength". Our next TS may come from the Carribbean.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Brad in Miami
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Re: New Kate Models
      #13511 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:28 PM

OK, thanks for clarification. Didn't know if I was missing something big, or if the satellite images I was looking at had a big area of convection down there they weren't transmitting.

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LI Phil
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Re: New Kate Models
      #13512 - Tue Sep 30 2003 05:29 PM

Yeah. I could have and should have been clearer. This may become Larry yet -- I wouldn't bet against it. And if he were to form, all interests should be prepared. It's just from the looks of things, 90L may not even become a TD. Time will tell.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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clyde w.
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Yawn...
      #13513 - Tue Sep 30 2003 07:36 PM

After Isabel, its been tough getting excited about Juan, Kate, et al. I was thinking at one point with how, after Isabel became a cat 5 and then the basin went quiet for a while, that Isabel was like a really big boat in a really small pond...the wake SLOSHed all the way to shore and made the rides bumpy for all the potentials out there. Wonder if there is any scientific principle to that?

Anyhoo, been way too darn busy to post much. Juan was pretty cool. Small little system that still packed a wallop for our Canadian friends.

Kate has not been a very pretty girl most of her life. Probably not going to pick up many dates til she does something with her appearance. Will keep watching though--after Kyle last year I rule nothing out anymore.

As for 90L, definitely could see a hint of a circulation building, but I feel like this is going to come ashore in Mexico before ever coming to anything of substance. If it lingers off the coast a while, something will surely eventually pull it north, but I'm going with the westward track for now.

Doesn't look like I'm going to make my "quota" this year. My prediction was 15/8/4. Maybe 8 hurricanes will happen, but I'm not betting on 4 more named storms this season, and I really only see one more intense storm if any.

Anyway, back to lurking....for now.


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Steve
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Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13514 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:25 PM

One day I'm going to get in trouble, but I pay for this. I'd never give every day updates on what he says, but this is great. He's beatin' up on the TPC again:

TUESDAY EVENING ON TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF
The recon has found a 1006 pressure with 50 kt flight level winds and 40 kts surface winds. Apparently knocked for a loop by this report, TPC has responded with the Special tropical disturbance statement and what I consider a moot argument about a front being in the area and so its not truly tropical. There is a front in the area, true. However the system is over 85 degree water with gales and 3 straight reports of a center. But the evidence that demands a verdict is below as the recon is ALSO REPORTING A WARM CORE CENTER! PLEASE EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE:


SEE THIS: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

Here is what I means, from the TPC website: I. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE OUTSIDE THE EYE. This gives an idea of the general temperature surrounding the storm. "Standard" temperature at 700 mb (where we fly most hurricanes) is about -5 degrees Celsius, but in the tropics, it's usually 10 to 15 degrees warmer than "standard". What you especially want to look for is how it compares to the temperature inside the eye, in Item J or P. The example shows a temperature of 11 degrees Celsius (52 degrees Fahrenheit) at an altitude of 3082 meters (10,112 feet). The altitude is included because the airplane bumps up and down due to turbulence and other factors, and minor changes in the temperature may be due to changes in altitude.

Now here is what J means, from the TPC website: J. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE INSIDE THE EYE. This is yet another indicator of how "healthy" the storm is. One of the unusual features of a hurricane is that it is warmer inside the eye than outside. What you want to look for here is how much warmer it is than the temperature reported outside the eye in Item "I." A developing storm may be only a degree warmer inside the center, while a strong hurricane may be 10 degrees warmer. In this example, the eye temperature of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) is four degrees warmer than the temperatures immediately outside the eye. Be sure to look at the remarks in Item "P" to see if there was an even warmer temperature found inside the eye (but more than 5 miles from the fix position). The aircraft was at a pressure altitude of 3108 meters (10,198 feet).

Lets look again at what I and J are reported to be in our 1006 mb , 40 kt system

At flight level here is the ob: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

J, the inside is warmer than I the outside. Yet here comes the reluctance to name the system causing gales over 85 degree water, with now 3 recons cutting off a center, and the center warmer than the outlying area.

Just what is the reason for this? The claim a front is around. The fact is the center and the structure is warm core, the report is there, and its defined in their own guidelines. Besides, there are many storms that have fronts around them. To me, The DATA, THE FACTS, SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

I have no changes on my perceived evolution of this the next few days


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Mary K.
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Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13515 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:43 PM

In plain English, is there a tropical Storm in the gulf, is it traveling east, west or stationary. Apparently there is still nothing official on this but the Gulf is not that big and is everyone betting the budget(federal Dollars) that it will land a big wad of money in someone's State treasurey if the storm comes there unforewarned?

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HanKFranK
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Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13516 - Tue Sep 30 2003 09:47 PM

heheh. 11pm, larry. or is that a frontal low?
HF 0148z01october


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AlexK
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Baby larry
      #13517 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:05 PM

On NRL site, it shows 40kts and 1006 pressure. Larry has been born after a rather long pregnancy

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LoisCane
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cute hank frank, very cute
      #13518 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:16 PM

got something down there ...thats for sure

cute post, thanks
keep watching...maybe more tropical disclaimers to come

more rain for sure..

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Steve
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Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13519 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:23 PM

It goes without saying that I gotcho' frontal low /rite hea'/.

/street

I think yeah Mary though they won't admit it. Franklin must be running scared or something. I'm skeptical that they've been trying to justify their own forecasts at times this year. Kind of like the biggest kid in the neighborhood, you can make up the rules as you go along to suit you first.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
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Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13520 - Tue Sep 30 2003 10:52 PM

Lawrence may yet be born, but his birthday WON'T be until October...

GO CUBBIES!

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 30 2003 10:54 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13521 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:07 PM

ack.. theyre hurting my braves right now. nope, its wait til tomorrow. after all, its a FRONTAL low.
HF 0307z01october


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00
      #13522 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM

I can't see this thing doing much! May be wrong but I see some more rain for thoes who don't need it, nothing more.

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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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andy1tom
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Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13523 - Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM

hey steve,
scroll down and look before and after the recon decode section.. kinda get your attention. web page


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Steve
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Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO
      #13525 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:22 AM

Yo thanks for the heads up. I think that if Louisiana gets hit (and I really have no idea what this is going to do), it would probably be from the WSW or something - maybe a feeder band or two in Plaquemines or St. Bernard Parishes and say the Chandeleur Islands. I would assume we'd see some strong north winds and not much rain here depending on how far north the front retreats (among other things). Thursday is supposed to be the day, but it looks pretty good on Hi Res IR tonight.

Hi-Res IR TNRCC

Steve

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Steve
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bedtime tidbit
      #13526 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:42 AM

Checked on some of the later models out now, and I'm surprised that they're still not doing much with 90L. I checked latest available runs of ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, ETA and NOGAPS. Either the models are all right and I'm out to lunch thinking 90L has the look like it's going to crank up, or they are missing something. Crow's on the grill for them or me at this point.

Steve

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Mary K.
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Re: Good Morning!
      #13527 - Wed Oct 01 2003 07:46 AM

I can't believe no one is here moaning and groaning about the lack of a declared storm this morning. The standard satellite is looking ominous if you think tropical system, and the usual if you think cold wave: november, december, january, february. So is this a cold wave named Larry or is it a tropical storm...oops no name?

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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: Good Morning!
      #13528 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:04 AM

The shortwave IF you can see the rotation the best it seems in the BOC holding it's own and stationary.This looks like the only place development could occur.Anything above the 25N line is in for some shear.If the thunderstorms to the NE could make their way to the bay might be enough energy to get this thing rolling.It's a wait and see now as they all are really.Timing is important on htis thing fi=or movement.Temps rise here in a couple of days(alittle).How far does the high regress and how long before the next dip.What I have seen on the local maybe a 48-72 hr window over the WE.

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stormchazer
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Re: Good Morning!
      #13529 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:28 AM

Our cold wave is getting a decent T-number:

01/0615 UTC 20.9N 93.9W T1.5/1.5 92

They are the professionals and have all the toys so I will cut slack to the NHC but man, has this been an odd year. Mid-lattitude tropical systems in the East ATL coming west. 2 hits up the more northern East Coast and the NHC looks as indecisive as Custer at the Little Big Horn. Any one can be thrown off as coincidence but all together. The only thing missing is a Major Cat 5 developing out of the CV in November. We shall see....

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jlauderdal
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? for Mary
      #13530 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:50 AM

questions for mary
1. What is a standard satellite?
2. Did they send recon out that I don't know about that found a defined low LLC?
3. What is a cold wave?

thanks for your insight.

jlauderdal


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HanKFranK
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what the...
      #13531 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:23 AM

gale center persisting the gulf.. imagine that. more modeling leaning on development now.. all show erratic movement (anything from northwest to southeast). that kind of model play indicates slow, erratic movement. have to admit whatever frontal feature is down there is stunting growth, but i very much doubt that this isnt a tropical storm. again, think the NHC is waiting on a stadium eye to make the upgrade. we've seen much sloppier systems named (and not many better ones not named). that bastardi forecast (wishcast?) sending whatever system is there up to the northern gulf coast is getting a little bit of support at random.. but with a very divergent set of model solutions nothing can be discounted. if he gets it, the pitch was way out of the strike zone.
kate returning to form in the east atlantic, banding eye and all.. slowly accelerating wsw. GFS crowd recurves the storm late in the period, while NOGAPS is consistently not turning the storm and weakening it. the outcome will probably lie in how strong the storm gets, how much shear it encounters... etc. the parallel to kyle has already been drawn, and that kind of persistence required lots of weakening at times when troughs came to make the pickkup.
other areas models are picking up on possible activity.. after 3 days or so the sargasso sea area may have a frontal disturbance acting up.. and a cold low may slip in from european waters and follow kate, around the canaries-azores in five days or so (these occasionally go native).
anyhow, thats the tropics. free roaming east atlantic system, threatening frontal low in the gulf.
HF 1424z01october


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ShawnS
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Re: what the...
      #13532 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:30 AM

Does it look like we will be spared here on the Upper Texas Coast?

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Steve
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!
      #13533 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:47 AM

Hey Cycloneye,

Can you guys reset my account at s2k? Every time I logon since the server migration, it won't accept my password (I switched from the IP Address to storm2k.org). Neither of them work unless I'm banned or something. I want to seriously disagree with professional met wxman57 over his downplaying of the potential in the cold air advection thread.
----------------------------------------------------
Now back to your regularly scheduled programs.

Thanks,

Steve

--------------------
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LoisCane
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Area north of the Yucatan
      #13534 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:52 AM

I think this goes back to IF the area in the BOC looked as good as the area north of the Yucatan did then we would have had a name already ... again... issue of what some places would like to see happening vs what is happening and a waiting game waiting for the area that IS convecting and has BAD weather and STRONG winds to die down ...if you wait long enough and gamble it falls apart it never existed because it was never named.

Some people call that Denial.

If the area that was predicted to intensify and be tracked develops...then we pay attention to it...

Im sorry, not into playing politics here... think and have always thought the area to worry on it more in the central Gulf north of the Yucatan.

Its a shell game... NHC has shown more interest under the shell closest to Mexico/Texas..so much so that Lyons wrote off anything but a westward bound storm yesterday and they almost had that last night when it looked like the dominant system but I suppose they didnt believe in it enough or they would have named it. Good thing too because..area in central Gulf is HOT again.

Shifting Storms... think no one is posting right now cause no one NO ONE wants to go too much on record here as to what they think.

Of course.. Bastardi has... he's the one putting his neck on the chopping block... got to respect him for that ..whether you like his game or not..got to respect him.

And..he's getting paid for saying how he feels. Go figure.

While everyone around here is looking at the sats and holding back their thoughts.



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andy1tom
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Re: Area north of the Yucatan
      #13535 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:26 AM

i ask yesterday about this becoming two systems. it looks like on the i/r that the blob in the BOC and the one in the yucatan maybe combining. the one that is in the GOM appears to have a somewhat slight spin to it. does anyone else see this? 10:30 still no name. we have a bar here and that is its name. no name bar. wonder if we will have any problems from no name storm?

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LI Phil
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Isabel's Aftermath & 90L
      #13536 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM

Right now, at least on sat IR loops, 90L(arry) seems to be intensifying and is now moving wnw...towards Texas. Will definitely need to be watched closely. Models are widely divergent in their potential tracks. However, the BAMD takes 90L west, then almost due east for a strike on Key West. The LBAR similarly takes 90L west, and loops it back east, for a LA coast strike . I'm no met, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'll bet that 90L does indeed become Larry (at least TS Larry), posing a minor threat to the entire GOM from Texas to FL.

As for Isabel's aftermath, take a look at some of these pictures. If there is anyone out there who just might like a taste of a CAT 2, check these out and think again. This is from Hattaras, not Morehead City. I imagine the destruction is even worse there:

http://www.hatterasonmymind.com/Isabel.html

90L Modeling:

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

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Frank P
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Re: Area north of the Yucatan
      #13537 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM

Well the blob might be bigger north of the Yucatan, but size in this case may NOT matter.

I can't find any definitive circulation in the big blob at the moment...maybe it's hidden under all the clouds... I doubt it .....

However, you look at the GOES vis sat loop and there is a definite spin and circulation at 20.3N and 93.9W... drifting slowly west... IMO...

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 01 2003 10:40 PM)


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javlin
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Re: BOC
      #13538 - Wed Oct 01 2003 12:29 PM

Kinda reminds me of Bill earlier this season this might just go by the depression phase.The BOC seems to have the twist and it seems that new convection is starting to fill the NE quadarant.The new air to the N(CONUS) looks to be going further E more ESE maybe?

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andy1tom
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Re: BOC
      #13539 - Wed Oct 01 2003 01:12 PM

Looks like it might be losing its' punch. web page

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Brad in Miami
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Re: BOC
      #13540 - Wed Oct 01 2003 01:50 PM

Actually, I think the circulation looks better, and a small bit of convection has developed near it. Although some of the convection has died, that convection was farther from the center.

Latest recon was a 46 kt W-WNW wind (290 degrees) at 20.0/93.5.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded at 5. Then again, I wouldn't be suprised if it's not. Depends on how that convection near the center evolves, and whether the NHC thinks it's separated enough from the front.


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HanKFranK
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jumping through hoops
      #13541 - Wed Oct 01 2003 02:11 PM

joe b excerpt last night made a convincing argument that this is a tropical storm. i can see the fact that it's got a frontal tail nearby, but honestly, what's this thing got to do for NHC to see larry and not a frontal low? i mean c'mon, notice that last night the recon gave a TROPICAL CYCLONE vortex message.
anyhow, model runs on larry/low divergent as can be.. but not trending to mexico quite so much. there's only so much you can gather from them when you consider how they probably aren't initialized quite right.
as for kate.. NHC mentioned the NOGAPS solution i was thinking of earlier.. explained the reasoning behind it some. the recurvature next week forecast does make more sense.. like the official.
the other watch areas.. bahamas-bermuda and azores-canaries. mid latitude fish spinner candidates... nobody cares except people like me trying to tag development days down the road. long range stuff (gfs) is pointing to more pattern-triggered activity well down the road, more stuff to monitor.
HF 1812z01october


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LoisCane
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you know.........
      #13542 - Wed Oct 01 2003 02:38 PM

always learned that one of the main areas of tropical cyclone formation in certain months was at the tail end of FRONTAL ZONES...

old fronts
old stalled out fronts

why is this suddenly some problem?

in my thinking it would be only normal to look for formation there in the month of October



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Brad in Miami
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new vortex message
      #13543 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:01 PM

000
URNT12 KNHC 011833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1833Z
B. 21 DEG 16 MIN N
93 DEG 11 MIN W
C. NA
D. 25 KT
E. 159 DEG 40 NM
F. 206 DEG 26 KT
G. 159 DEG 040 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 294 M
J. 26 C/ 205 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 46 KT S QUAD 1738Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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JimAnderson
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Re: Isabel's Aftermath & 90L
      #13544 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:12 PM Attachment (312 downloads)

Concerning the Hattaras Photos. I just finished a week and a half at the NC Emergency Operations Center/FEMA Disaster Field Office for Hurricane Isabel in NC.

A few points about Isabel. FEMA and NC prepared for a Cat 3/4 storm that thankfully hit at only Cat 2 strength. This was enough, however to create the problems on Hatteras Island. The most critical problem is the isolation of Hattaras Village (275 people). The Ocracoke Ferry from Ocracoke Island to Hattaras Island had its channel filled in and needs to be dredged.

Second, just north of Hattaras Village, Isabel opened a new inlet to Pamlico Sound. On Friday the 19th it was 300 feet wide/10 feet deep. By the 25th, it was 2000 feet wide and still growing. This inlet cut power, water, and sewage to/from Hattaras Village.

This isolation of Hattaras Village is probably the most critical remaining result of Isabel. Interestingly, this area of Hattaras Island had an inlet in the '30s that was being bridged by an FDR WPA project when a Hurricane hit that filled in the inlet. After that storm, the WPA built a road (NC12) instead. Hurricane Isabel's Inlet is exposing the old bridge pylons.

The Army Corps of Engineers has been tasked to fill in the Inlet so the road can be rebuilt. OY VEY! Messing with Mother Nature.

Jim


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Brad in Miami
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Re: new vortex message
      #13545 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM

The 2 pm est tropical model runs initialize 90L as a 40kt tropical storm. Interesting, considering the flight level winds are weaker than yesterday, when it was initialized as a 30kt depression (ditto for this morning's runs).

I wonder if this means the NHC is considering naming it. Pure speculation, of course, but what the hell -- why not speculate.

Also, the latest runs of all 4 of those models eventually bring 90L east. Of course they've been all over the place, so I suspect they'll change again, but I think that's the first time since at least Friday or Saturday when all four bring it east. (The still do so at markedly different latitudes and in markedly different time frames.)



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Brad in Miami
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Re: new vortex message
      #13546 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM

I meant: "They still do so...," not "The still do so"

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Brad in Miami
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Re: new vortex message
      #13547 - Wed Oct 01 2003 03:26 PM

Almost forgot: Kate is initialized as a 65kt hurricane in that run of the tropical models. No surprise, given the 11am discussion and her appearence right now.

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Brad in Miami
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Second vortex data message
      #13548 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:36 PM

Higher winds, lower pressure:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2014Z
B. 21 DEG 04 MIN N
93 DEG 41 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 212 DEG 47 NM
F. 283 DEG 56 KT
G. 215 DEG 062 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 23 C/ 341 M
J. 25 C/ 355 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF966 02FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 1955Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Second vortex data message
      #13549 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:41 PM

The second vortex fix is about 32 miles west of the first one, and less than two hours later. Pretty quick movement, or center reformation, or just a broad, poorly defined center?

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LI Phil
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No TD in the GOM; TD in EastPac
      #13550 - Wed Oct 01 2003 04:45 PM

As of 5:00, still no TD in the GOM, however, the EastPac just got TD14...maybe at 11:00?

--------------------
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AlexK
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What is going on??
      #13551 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:18 PM

I guess the NHC may have a point. But from my experience, I've seen worse looking systems classified as depressions. How can they not classify this and yet they did classify Grace in September?

Are they saying it isnt tropical enough?


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Brad in Miami
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Re: What is going on??
      #13552 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:21 PM

Alex: here's the 530 post about the NHC's thoughts:

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MEANDERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


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AlexK
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sounds about right
      #13553 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:23 PM

I'll consider what they said a resonable comprimise. No sense in rushing it

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LI Phil
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Re: What is going on??
      #13554 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:26 PM

I have to agree Alex. From the latest sat loops, it sure looks like Larry-2-B is tightening up. Without another flight into it, though, I'm wondering if we'll get a TD by 11:00. Sure looks like it could at the very least be a TD by now.

GO MARLINS! 4-4 in the 5th!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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HEY JASON
      #13555 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:28 PM

Jason, I see you online...what's your take on this?

--------------------
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Brad in Miami
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Re: What is going on??
      #13556 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:33 PM

Phil:

First, because the sustained winds are already at tropical storm force, it probably would be classified as a storm, not a depression. (You mentioned the chances of being classified as a depression at 11pm.)

Second, the NHC won't necessarily wait for another flight to go in to classify it. Satellite imagery will show if thunderstorm activity consolidates around the center and if the low pulls farther away from the front.


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LI Phil
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Re: What is going on??
      #13557 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:36 PM

Brad: I wouldn't argue against it already being a TS. Just figured they'd make it a TD first, although, as you and others have pointed out, it wouldn't be the first time NHC skipped the TD phase. We'll see at 11:00 what they determine.

Thanks for the info!

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stuartdave
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Re: What is going on??
      #13558 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:36 PM

Not to worry I watched Lyons just before 5pm and anything in that area will be going to Mexico, Floridians have no worries other than higher insurance premiums for an undeserved reputation for big hurricanes(last one here was 1950). By the way we've had heavy rain predictions all week but no rain since Monday, you would think the local mets would occassionally look at the radar.

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What is going on??
      #13559 - Wed Oct 01 2003 05:38 PM

Yeah, Steve Lyons is never wrong...even Jon Nese is better.

I wish we could bring back John Hope

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mary K.
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Re: ? for Mary
      #13560 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:05 PM

Hi Jlauderdale:
I read a post where a recon had gone out and found some winds, however, it may have been on Kate
A standard satellite is one produced by NOAA or NHC, nothing specialized
A cold wave is what we used to call cold fronts when I was growing up back in the dark ages. We called them that because in Florida, the cold air just waved bye bye after a few hours or days.
When I speak on the boards, I do it with the language of yesterday. But, my comments mean no harm. I may very well have thought that recon was seeing some upper level storm winds and surface storm winds based on another post I read, if so. and I am wrong, I misspoke. Thanks for listening.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


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pressure at 1004
      #13561 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:10 PM

The latest recon found 1004 pressure and winds of 65 miles per hour at flight level. I would bet that this thing is classified at 11, but I thought the same yesterday...

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jlauderdal
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: ? for Mary
      #13562 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:18 PM

thanks for the clarification..just want to make sure i am on the same page.

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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
Tropical storm Larry has formed
      #13563 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:43 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/010006.shtml?

The first advisory will be out in an hour.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: ? for Mary
      #13564 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:45 PM

Wow, 90L (Larry) looks to be on the up-swing tonight! Agree that it should go straight to TS status soon, but who knows what the NHC will do. If it continues in the up-swing mode sooner or later they are going to have to do something. I think the bigger question here is where is he going?? The more the system strenghtens the better the chance of him making a tour of the gulf and eventually a pit stop somewhere in Florida. Then again that's just my opinion, I could be terribly wrong.

I see we now have Larry!! Thanks for the info Cyc...


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Oct 01 2003 09:21 PM)


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HanKFranK
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yep
      #13565 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:46 PM

as alex has already noted.. they're finding more and more evidence. eventually the NHC will have to state the obvious.
kate is looking nice. small hurricane, but a more solid ring CDO and better defined eye becoming apparent. still diving wsw, waters just get warmer south of 30N.
HF 2247z01october


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
It's about d@$m time.....
      #13566 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:47 PM

723
WONT41 KNHC 012230
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2003

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW
HAS LITTLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINING...AND THEREFORE THE LOW IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LARRY. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM LARRY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLKIN

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


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Posts: 166
Re: It's about d@$m time.....
      #13567 - Wed Oct 01 2003 06:58 PM

I guess they just couldn't hide the elephant in the middle of the room any longer. People just kept tripping over him. Now, for the next few hours of speculation as to where he will go and end up. It will be interesting to read from you guys how the models initialize on this storm. I don't read meterology well, so I depend on the wise guys around here err uh wisemen. I would like to say though, I would appreciate it if someone could arrange an 8 hour in advanced hurricane warning for Central/North Polk County Florida. I would sure love a long weekend without any loss of life to anyone. Thanks in Advance.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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mbfly
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Re: It's about d@$m time.....
      #13568 - Wed Oct 01 2003 07:11 PM

Hey Rick-in-Mobile............. is Larry going to come visit us ??

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Tropics Guy
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Re: Larry...Florida bound?
      #13569 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:04 PM

Models showing Larry eventually headed towards Florida, don't know the time frame though as he could sit and spin in the BOC for awhile.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Re: Larry...Florida bound?
      #13571 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:32 PM

I can comment now that the NHCs toys told them what every weekend meteorologist already suspected. T-number is good:

01/2345 UTC 20.6N 94.0W T2.0/2.0 LARRY

I see the intial models going east but I will wait for a good day or two of model runs to get some sense of where Larry will go. Bastardi might get his hit, only it might be S. FL. Frankly, if I were in the Panhandle, I would pick up plywood this weekend.

Mary K., we here in Polk County will enjoy our Bucs game this Monday. We have Mickey on our side to protect us.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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jlauderdal
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Speedy Larry
      #13572 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:32 PM

Looks like it could be awhile before gets moving. I predict a whole lot of crow on this one as the system isn't moving anywhere fast.

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Mary K.
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Re: Larry...Florida bound?
      #13576 - Wed Oct 01 2003 09:04 PM

Ok Make that Monday evening ( a threat to make the Buc's game more interesting( and so I don't have to go to work) I could use a three day weekend with pay.I am afraid though, looking at the loops tonight, an optical illusion perhaps, but it looks like the entity(Larry) is rolling to the west off of the frontal weather like one of those birthday streamer-whistles. It will have to wind itself back up before it can change directions and it looks like if one were to take the meterological scissors and snip it, the entity would turn loose and go into Mexico. I have seen this happen a lot of times in other situations.Fortunately the weekend is coming up and there will be plenty of time to observe what happens as opposed to having to wait all day to see what has happened.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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