LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Noticed the twist too in the SW Carib., also Kate is really holding her own.,
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Larry is getting his act together this afternoon. latest recon has pressure down to 996. I beleive Joe B may be on to something. I don't know if larry can make it as far north as Opal, but a general NE movement is probably accurate. Could deepen rapidly as well. Where is Cat 5 Rick????
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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T-numbers think so too:
02/1745 UTC 20.5N 93.2W T3.0/3.0 LARRY
Now the models should really get cranking.
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Jara
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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you beat me to it. that is a heckave increase since being named. with the increase in strength it should increase the probability that it will move northward somewhat. i don't think the models predicted a increase like this.
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Latest vortex message shows pressure down another millabar to 995, and flight level winds at 72 miles per hour.(62kts)
Edited by AlexK (Thu Oct 02 2003 04:30 PM)
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Am I missing something? What in the world do they see to tell them it is ging to go south? All but one of the tropical models has it going NE. I just don't get how they decide on their forecasts.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Not sure what runs you are looking at, but most all the model runs today (with the LBAR being the exception) are forecasting a southward drift.
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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The southerly track would come in if the energy moving in from the NW didn't take out the high pressure to the west of Larry, and that high pressure would allow the flow N-S(ish) around the clockwise flow. Assumption is that a weak storm would more likely fall prey to this scenario.
Here's a comment from Joe B for all you who didn't get to read this morning's column:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON S(N)IDE COMMENT. I am getting the impression TPC just does not like Larry. reluctant to name, then talking about how disjointed and unorganized it is, recon flies in and pressures are down at 995 and winds are up to 55kts. And guess what.. Now strong winds are on eastern side.
Midday runs very interesting as they are showing a low developing northeast of the stalled position of this storm in 5 days. Sometimes, not always, that "stretched" look is the sign the system is going to come out, but one can not tell and until I get a good look at how the storm develops and interacts with the ridges trapping it, or perhaps releasing it, all options have their good and bad points. In fact, the implication that this may be around a week from now is in there also. I am sticking with my idea.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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That's the turning of an Upper Level Low with a little interaction on its east side from a wave caught in some ridging. The real action (next week or weekend) is coming in the form of the wave getting close to 50W.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah steve, from the way it looks right now it might spawn a follow on to kate if it can fight through the shear. stranger things have happened. for the outside-chance systems, note the definition to the low northeast of the bahamas... some modeling is keeping this one around for a few days. even if it doesn't try anything, it will be influencing weather upstream of kate's path (that's might-be-a-major kate).
larry--official has it going down to the isthmus of tehuantepec. plenty of analog systems have taken that path.. on the other hand modeling is still all over the place and slow. my earlier thought that mexico was the most likely if the storm stayed weak is still in play, but not if bastardi's call for a solid hurricane in the BOC is on the mark for the weekend. the evolution of Opal is undeniably similar, though the synoptic pattern more closely resembles roxanne's setup.
the situation is going to be more complex, i'm assuming. is still developing a low in the western caribbean in the next few days, and has been skipping a low off NE across florida out of larry's envelope (noted, and thats multiple runs showing it). even if larry doesn't go out, it could have company to the east that does. it's a very complex problem that there's no easy answer to. as usual it's more likely that no hurricane will hit the u.s. (not many big ones bucking the trend lately), but of course that isn't always going to be true.
HF 2129z02october
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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You know its like when you have small children and you tell them... "you don't have to like me.. you just have to respect me"
Think Larry deserves SOME respect here...
As for direction... the models showed some possibility of a southward movement and then some sort of loop that looked almost like it was drawing its signature it took off East or NorthEast bound..
Its okay...don't think they loved Kate enough either...like a petulant little tropical system its showing its disdain for the by dancing around in the Atlantic putting on a dazzling show.
Never underestimate anyone or anything...lesson we should take home today.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Kind of a weird situation-The convection is dying down a touch, but the pressure is down to 993, and they found hurricane force winds at flight level. I also have trouble believing that the storm will head due south. I cant remember the last time a TS or hurricane moved due south for more than 60-70 miles
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I saw someone post that it is common for storms to go south or into Mex in that area at this point but follow this link
Historic Tracks
and it shows more go north then south historically. I'll wait and see if the models stay consistent. doesn't usually make snap forecast with no buts like the 5pm Discussion did.
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Jara
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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SC, nice reference map there. Sorta hard to tell but looks almost 50/50. I look at it this way, Larry has already done more than what most thought that he would ever do. If he does go N he's going to have to develop more, seems like he is still doing that as we speak. JB, said hurricane, well Larry is almost there. Lot's of things to consider here but can't rule anything out right now. Waiting and more waiting we can count on that right now!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I see that the WREL model site is depicting LBAR into Jacksonville, Florida Area and the rest going south. This is an interesting picture and makes me wonder what kind of data the models are getting with those specs. Unless it is the hurricane winds at the upper level are going to influence the direction of the hurricane. Could this be the reason the data is so southerly at this point? 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Don't put much stake in LBAR as it is not good in the GOM and at higher Latitudes Storms. I'm holding out on were Larry is going because I'm not sure the models are initializing as strong a system as Larry is. If she continues to deepen then the models are going to react different.
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Jara
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I may be stating the obvious, but it looks to me like the storm will be inland Mexico by morning. Whether it is drifting or actually moving. I have looked at a lot of different satellites. some older and some more recent. And Since I left for work this morning, this storm has definitely moved south and seems to have again moved more south since I have been watching in the last 2 hours.
Is there a history of a Storm ever crossing the Yucatan from the north and heading 180 after a north to south crossing?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I think she may be a he but anyway.... LBAR is holding out and I expect another model shift before this is over.... I think a little more of Joe B. with each passing minute.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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just so many questions tonight and not a lot of answers
i imagine the answers might come in the morning
watched The Game a bit... watching loops...
sigh.... looks good, then not so good...
see that feature moving west out on the ocean
no not kate..the one further south
will see in the morning light more than we know now
nite
nite larry..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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