MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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What better way for Larry to relax, than near the beaches of Mexico? Or more precisely the bay of Campeche. Not the best place for a storm to form for the nerves of Gulf Residents. I say relax, because it doesn't want to move anytime soon.
Recon aircraft has been hunting for a center in this disturbance for a while, and it found one, large enough to jump it striaght to a Tropical Storm. And judging by the situation around it, Larry isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The steering currents are extremely weak around it. Larry could be there for days. The hurricane center suggests it may move westward, but still anywhere along the western Gulf should be on the lookout. Strengthening may be gradual, but if it stays stationary it will hurt its chances at growing stronger. The rest of the Gulf would be prudent to watch as well.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 01 2003 08:39 PM)
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LI Phil
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Hey Jason: Is Larry going to come east towards PCB?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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I was just comparing the images between Kate and Larry and I am not an expert by anyone's imagination, but I thought that the visual comparisons were not only remarkably similar, but that maybe Larry was showing even more strengthening characteristics than Kate who is classified as a hurricane at least on our board. Can anyone else see this or is it time to rest my eyes?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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You tell me and we will both know.
Too early to tell...I think the key would be the amount of strengthening...if Larry would strengthen significantly, the that might impart a more poleward motion, which would then get him caught up in the strong westerlies to his north and head him our way. I believe that this is what the modeling that does send him our way is doing. If significant strengthening does not occur, he just meanders into old Mexico.
All speculation on my part...we'll see.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Fair points, Jason. Way too early to speculate...
BUT, if Larry were to strengthen and head east, based on climatology, meterology, water temps, etc., how strong could he get? Is he a potential MAJOR threat to the gulf?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Oct 01 2003 10:08 PM)
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
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Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Models are models but this bothers me.... no globals I have seen does anything sure without splitting off, otherwise it flys to MX. The tropical runs albeit a "spider" all have the same basic idea now??? I was wrong last night... never thought we would see "Larry" out of this  Like JK said on the tube..kinda 50/50. We will see.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Water temps are adequate for significant strengthening. If he does get into the westerlies this would likely inhibit further strengthening due to shear. Could Larry become a major? Yeah, he could...but at this point, with the current very limited data set, it's not a likelyhood, in my mind.
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Jason Kelley
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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All the bouys close to shore 75-100 miles out reporting 77-80 degree temps.The bouys out in the Gulf 82.4 avg.looks like.It sure would have to get cranked up to impact with a punch or come in quick.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Hey Jason is it my imagination but the trogh looks to be getting thin over Fl and part of the Gulf.On both the IF and WV it looks like it to me anyway.Will this not possibily weaken the shear some later till the next front comes.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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someone asked a question...how strong could it get?
well...it will have a lot of running room ...IF it goes east...
saw norcross on tv tonight around 5...was obvious he was in agreement tho less vocal with it being Larry..
Interesting questions out there...arent there?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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kate whipping wsw between an upper low to the south and a building ridge to the north, probably on its way to being a fairly strong hurricane (perhaps intense in a couple of days). models grouping more around the recurvature idea.. assuming it deepens that would be the likely scenario. if it weakens further west then it could be more of a drifting, meandering kyle-type system.. the forecast track is odd enough by itself (entire path/forecast path looks like an inchworm).
larry quasi-stationary, center broad and probably oscillating towards convective bursts. no steady for now.. larry will probably continue to slowly organize. like everybody is saying, the solution is largely dependent on how strong larry can get. a stronger system will probably come north to menace the gulf coast, a weaker one will probably stay south. note that by october, with fronts having cleared the gulf coast.. it is unlikely that a very powerful hurricane can hit the gulf coast anywhere but the peninsular florida this late in the season. with the current and projected synoptic pattern, if larry comes north it probably won't be intense when/if it might reach the u.s.
there's no way of knowing how things will develop at this point. my arbitrary bet is mexico, but i reserve the right to change that if larry starts deepening.. then the Opal contingency comes into play.
HF 0421z02october
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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an ill timed fire alarm has kept me unhappily awake since about 2:40 AM, back inside i've noticed that the eclipse period for the goes 12 is past, and kate and larry are both looking much improved. has a t.s. nora in the eastpac.. the depression has matured (maybe more atlantic activity in a few days in response). 00Z runs keeping larry near mexico, in the southern gulf, and recurving kate east of bermuda. interestingly has a system developing in the western caribbean once the upper trough there splits and ridging builds in north of panama.. by early next week. this may be the one bastardi was vouching for earlier.. development will be watched. various models also suggesting something in kate's wake (either from a piece of wave energy from the south, or an low from the northeast) and cyclogenesis of what appears to be nontropical nature off the east coast by early next week as well.
maybe just kate and larry, maybe some company?
well, have to work all afternoon after class.. better get to sleep.
HF 0826z02october
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57497479
Weather Master
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Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Bobbi, looks like from where I'm sitting your back yard should be in much better shape than it was a few days ago. Had a few days of some isolated rain here but nothing to be concerned about. Then there's good ole Larry out there taking his sweet time trying to get his act together. Convection looking respectable this morning. Guess larry could be having a few days of siesta time! Actually doesn't sound too bad,should consider that myself... still up in the air where he is going to go, sounds like there is a good possibility that he could meet his fate right where he's hanging out now. Noticed in this mornings discussion that he could strenghten some as he sits there. My question this morning to you guys is how common is that for a system that is stationary to intensify, given this particular situation?
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Thu Oct 02 2003 06:14 AM)
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Thanks
Interesting cloud patterns overhead due to it all...multi layered mixed seasonal bag of clouds
like you cant decide it winter is on its way or another impulse of tropical summer
Hope Larry puts out a press release when he decides what he is going to do
Oh... I get it.. Larry KNOWS... we are the ones trying to figure it out
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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It seems by the satellite I see this morning that Larry is not real obvious in all the blue colors in the Gulf. I really wish the colorized would not colorize anything except the storm and not its surrounding muck, But you cant have everything I suppose.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Looks like some pulsing going on this morning and a drift a little south. Larry will probably drift every direction before its done. Closer it gets to the coast the less it would develop I would think. T-number still good as of this morning:
02/1145 UTC 20.7N 93.3W T2.5/2.5 LARRY
Steve, is Joe B holding to his North Gulf Coast hit?
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>Steve, is Joe B holding to his North Gulf Coast hit?
Yeah. He's not deviating from it at all. His idea is Opal-esque vs. Roxanne-esqe which so many others are biting on.
I'm not posting a cut and paste today but he really (and probably more than ever) has stated his case for why the subjectivity in naming is bullcrap and serves to confuse the public forcing them back to the /TPC when a conventional naming system based on reality should be employed. In other words, if it quacks like a duck, has feathers, webbed feet...
He's made that argument countless times before, but I've never seen him do it at this level. Often I'll post that he's going bonkers, but this is the rant of all rants. It's worth signing up for the 30 day free trial just to read it. It's not vitriolic in any way, but you can see he really held back what he wanted to say.
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Anyway, his thoughts are that it will meander and by Saturday probably will be a 90MPH hurricane (pressure sub-985). His wildcard is the ULL over the caribbean which could hold a high in place.
His reasoning for why he thinks it's going Opal is really well thought out and far different from what all the other professional (tv and web mets) are saying. I'll say this, if he ends up pulling this thing off from Monday, I will defend him anywhere anyone takes him on. Obviously he sees the potentail for the Roxanne maneuver or he wouldn't mention it. But he's sticking with his call for now (with the above noted wildcard thrown in).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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speaking of Opal.... opal have we seen the first part of this track before??
Edited by andy1tom (Thu Oct 02 2003 11:28 AM)
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LoisCane
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Agreed STeve on Bastardi.. excellent discussion today. Excellent...would have been too long to post but well stated and not so much of a rant in my opinon as a clear cut case for the naming debate... a debate in my opinon there is not answer to because the naming is always subjective and follows no pattern or logic when a system is in the Gulf especially.. other areas as well.
There was a front in the area?
Yeah... there always is in October..
See what happens with the track..very interesting to watch and agreed... he will have amazing credibility if he pulls this off.
What btw does Mo and Curly have to do with anything here .. oh haha I get it Larry.. sorry, didn't watch the movie...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 02 2003 08:57 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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My comment last night might be coming true .Appeared last night tkat the clouds over FL and the Gulf were getting thin.This morning I was wondering maybe wrong but in the last 6 hrs the shear to the N has dropped alot.Larry looks to be spinning a little quicker this afternoon.Might be possible for Larry to start pulling in some more energy from the rest of the Gulf now have to wait and see.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Noticed the twist too in the SW Carib., also Kate is really holding her own.,
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Larry is getting his act together this afternoon. latest recon has pressure down to 996. I beleive Joe B may be on to something. I don't know if larry can make it as far north as Opal, but a general NE movement is probably accurate. Could deepen rapidly as well. Where is Cat 5 Rick????
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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T-numbers think so too:
02/1745 UTC 20.5N 93.2W T3.0/3.0 LARRY
Now the models should really get cranking.
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Jara
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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you beat me to it. that is a heckave increase since being named. with the increase in strength it should increase the probability that it will move northward somewhat. i don't think the models predicted a increase like this.
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Latest vortex message shows pressure down another millabar to 995, and flight level winds at 72 miles per hour.(62kts)
Edited by AlexK (Thu Oct 02 2003 04:30 PM)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Am I missing something? What in the world do they see to tell them it is ging to go south? All but one of the tropical models has it going NE. I just don't get how they decide on their forecasts.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Not sure what runs you are looking at, but most all the model runs today (with the LBAR being the exception) are forecasting a southward drift.
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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The southerly track would come in if the energy moving in from the NW didn't take out the high pressure to the west of Larry, and that high pressure would allow the flow N-S(ish) around the clockwise flow. Assumption is that a weak storm would more likely fall prey to this scenario.
Here's a comment from Joe B for all you who didn't get to read this morning's column:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON S(N)IDE COMMENT. I am getting the impression TPC just does not like Larry. reluctant to name, then talking about how disjointed and unorganized it is, recon flies in and pressures are down at 995 and winds are up to 55kts. And guess what.. Now strong winds are on eastern side.
Midday runs very interesting as they are showing a low developing northeast of the stalled position of this storm in 5 days. Sometimes, not always, that "stretched" look is the sign the system is going to come out, but one can not tell and until I get a good look at how the storm develops and interacts with the ridges trapping it, or perhaps releasing it, all options have their good and bad points. In fact, the implication that this may be around a week from now is in there also. I am sticking with my idea.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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That's the turning of an Upper Level Low with a little interaction on its east side from a wave caught in some ridging. The real action (next week or weekend) is coming in the form of the wave getting close to 50W.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah steve, from the way it looks right now it might spawn a follow on to kate if it can fight through the shear. stranger things have happened. for the outside-chance systems, note the definition to the low northeast of the bahamas... some modeling is keeping this one around for a few days. even if it doesn't try anything, it will be influencing weather upstream of kate's path (that's might-be-a-major kate).
larry--official has it going down to the isthmus of tehuantepec. plenty of analog systems have taken that path.. on the other hand modeling is still all over the place and slow. my earlier thought that mexico was the most likely if the storm stayed weak is still in play, but not if bastardi's call for a solid hurricane in the BOC is on the mark for the weekend. the evolution of Opal is undeniably similar, though the synoptic pattern more closely resembles roxanne's setup.
the situation is going to be more complex, i'm assuming. is still developing a low in the western caribbean in the next few days, and has been skipping a low off NE across florida out of larry's envelope (noted, and thats multiple runs showing it). even if larry doesn't go out, it could have company to the east that does. it's a very complex problem that there's no easy answer to. as usual it's more likely that no hurricane will hit the u.s. (not many big ones bucking the trend lately), but of course that isn't always going to be true.
HF 2129z02october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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You know its like when you have small children and you tell them... "you don't have to like me.. you just have to respect me"
Think Larry deserves SOME respect here...
As for direction... the models showed some possibility of a southward movement and then some sort of loop that looked almost like it was drawing its signature it took off East or NorthEast bound..
Its okay...don't think they loved Kate enough either...like a petulant little tropical system its showing its disdain for the by dancing around in the Atlantic putting on a dazzling show.
Never underestimate anyone or anything...lesson we should take home today.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Kind of a weird situation-The convection is dying down a touch, but the pressure is down to 993, and they found hurricane force winds at flight level. I also have trouble believing that the storm will head due south. I cant remember the last time a TS or hurricane moved due south for more than 60-70 miles
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I saw someone post that it is common for storms to go south or into Mex in that area at this point but follow this link
Historic Tracks
and it shows more go north then south historically. I'll wait and see if the models stay consistent. doesn't usually make snap forecast with no buts like the 5pm Discussion did.
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Jara
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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SC, nice reference map there. Sorta hard to tell but looks almost 50/50. I look at it this way, Larry has already done more than what most thought that he would ever do. If he does go N he's going to have to develop more, seems like he is still doing that as we speak. JB, said hurricane, well Larry is almost there. Lot's of things to consider here but can't rule anything out right now. Waiting and more waiting we can count on that right now!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I see that the WREL model site is depicting LBAR into Jacksonville, Florida Area and the rest going south. This is an interesting picture and makes me wonder what kind of data the models are getting with those specs. Unless it is the hurricane winds at the upper level are going to influence the direction of the hurricane. Could this be the reason the data is so southerly at this point?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Don't put much stake in LBAR as it is not good in the GOM and at higher Latitudes Storms. I'm holding out on were Larry is going because I'm not sure the models are initializing as strong a system as Larry is. If she continues to deepen then the models are going to react different.
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Jara
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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I may be stating the obvious, but it looks to me like the storm will be inland Mexico by morning. Whether it is drifting or actually moving. I have looked at a lot of different satellites. some older and some more recent. And Since I left for work this morning, this storm has definitely moved south and seems to have again moved more south since I have been watching in the last 2 hours.
Is there a history of a Storm ever crossing the Yucatan from the north and heading 180 after a north to south crossing?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
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Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I think she may be a he but anyway.... LBAR is holding out and I expect another model shift before this is over.... I think a little more of Joe B. with each passing minute.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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just so many questions tonight and not a lot of answers
i imagine the answers might come in the morning
watched The Game a bit... watching loops...
sigh.... looks good, then not so good...
see that feature moving west out on the ocean
no not kate..the one further south
will see in the morning light more than we know now
nite
nite larry..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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larry isn't holding down convection. until it does that, just expect fluctuations in strength, possibly a weakening trend. goofy system, really. leaning on the mexico solution as long as it's weak and such.
kate seems to have finished losing latitude, perhaps it will intensify a bit more. most like a cat 2, outside chance it makes cat 3. models all going with recurvature, so out it goes.
none of the other suspicious model imaginings have much going for them at the moment. couple/three days before any could be something, probably more.
HF 0441z03october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Larry looking worse this morning near 5:00 am than he has looked at all and the 5:00 am report is still ing calling him 60 mph winds with higher gusts, etc, So that goes to show you that the satellites may look ominous and be nothing in particularly special out there and may look like nothing, and be something. I guess the moral of the story is you have to ride the airplane to know what the real story is,,,,
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yeah Mary, his get up and go..... looks like It got up and went....! (anybody else ever use that phrase) I think in the case we should say that, "you can't judge a book by its cover". Maybe that better describes what we can't see on the sat.this AM. Who knows what the day will bring, and what he has in store for us today!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Fri Oct 03 2003 07:08 AM)
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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After making that comment I went to the Orca loop and the spin is still pretty tight. What we may be seeing this morning is a waning of the convection before it explodes later today. Since there are still forecasts around calling for 90 mph winds(don't quote me on this it may be 90 kts. Anyway, in that loop it looked as though the circulation center had bobbed North East at least temporarily. I will be looking forward to seeing what the system does today. Still holding out for a nice Hurricane Warning for my area so I don't have to go to court on Monday( hee hee) 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Your baloon never lands... you know?
Seriously... Larry looking pretty limp if you like me..seems only time likes him is when he doesnt look like he will do anything.
Maybe will make it..who knows... I have a lot of respect for Bastardi tho I am not one of his biggest followers... do respect his instincts immensely.
Waiting to see if Larry doesnt skim the coast a bit, fall apart a bit, hang in there and then take off for places ene...
A bit worried... strong storm down in Pacific..or at least compared to Larry ... haven't paid attention to models enough myself last few days.............Ive been distracted by things that sure aren't models... but will see today how it goes.
One thing looking at Orca I do see is... Kate looks like she should be some country western song.. got a one way ticket on a sw train... going against the grain... like a runaway car passing all the traffic streaming NE out of town she's racing back SW bound on that loop... looking pretty too, getting all dressed up and putting some color on her face
what a funky way to end the season
oh i know
its not over til Joey says its over and we have one more Carib storm and Florida needs to be hit one more time
so... come on Joey boy.. hit us with your best shot, fire away
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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should we go back to sleep?
out to starbucks?
give up posting before 6am?
or complain that if we got up the least bastardi could do was have a friday morning post.. i mean is he the only wxr one asleep this morning?
we sound very sleepy if you ask me on this board 
happy friday
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I vote for going back to sleep. However, the boss and the bills have out voted me so I will go earn my pennies and then hopefully come home for a weekend of luxuriating sleep, satellite loops, oh, yeah housework, bathing the dog, grocery shopping, laundry, did I say luxury? I must be dreaming....
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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15e noname developing in the pacific east of nora, sw of larry. was right in this case.. getting very complex and crowded. there dould be all sorts of interactions here, ranging from fujiwhara to one system shearing another, to systems building ridges for their nearby neighbors to ride along. very odd situation in the works.
atlantic side development is usually called for when the pacific starts spitting them out.. in a few days. idea being that we aren't done.
HF 1434z03october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah... thanks was wondering if any models predicted that and would be hard not to imagine that they aren't going to affect eachother... they can't all co-exist without one becoming stronger or shearing the other.
watching, kate still fun to watch on orca loop
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Larry is just gonna sit and spin and spin.............. for who knows how long., it's like watching a bad rerun(lol)., He's in a no mans land and unless a strong trough digs him up outta there, he will just keep churning up the water in the BOC for a long time. 
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Can someone who knows a heck of alot more then me comment on the below little caveat in the 11am Discussion:
ONE POSSIBLE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 23N91W. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT EFFECT...IF ANY...THIS MIGHT HAVE ON LARRY.
Yesterday Larry was bound for Mex, now I'm hearing alot of "buts" going on. Enlighten me please?!
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Full model consensus that Larry will be heading south eventually. Some of the models had previously kicked him back north after a Mexican landfall. He put up a Wall of VooDoo (no comprende' it's a riddle). Most now want to do something on the other side. Problem is, there are 3 systems down there now.
Joe B admitted he was wrong, though he always held out the possibility of what was going to happen. Apparently with the development and recurvature of Nora (more sharply than /NRL track) and shortwave energy cutting southwest, the ridge to Larry's west will be knocked back some. However, with the ULL cutting NW over the ridge to Larry's east, the western ridge will come back stronger adding a full southerly component to the stream flow and easing Larry on his leisure(suit)ly way. Problem is, that's probably gonna take 3-4 days, and well, the BOC ain't gonna be primed for any knockout development after that. In summary, it's Roxanne rather than Opal (both of which sound like exotic dancers, Larry sounds like a skeezer/patron).
We've got Kate easily cranking as a Cat 3. Small, compact, circular, bad-ass. I'm sticking with my idea that with the super warm SSTA's near Newfoundland, there's as good of a chance as not that Kate causes some trouble on the eastern island (Renews, St. John). Wave behind the ULL approaching 80 looks strong. Action remains east of the Islands.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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throw olaf in now... and whatever happens in the western caribbean in the next few days. add the possible non-tropical development east of florida in the next few days.. and the environment around larry is very possibly not being accurately predicted by the models.
deep trough east of the islands is breaking up the wave energy.. so anything that goes down there will probably need extra time to stew.. as it will have to condense from very weak pre-existing parameters.
no certainty but even when larry and kate are out of the scene, i think more will be on the horizon.
HF 2225z03october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I was just looking at the WV loops from ORCA and noticed that the dry air behind the cold front is beginning to droop lower and that there is convection of sorts riding the edge up to jacksonville on the last couple of loops.
Question is : Could Larry be drawn into the underside of that edge and follow it up after all. I was looking to the Pacific side of the mexico divide and it gives the illusion of two storms repelling off of each other much as the same poles of two magnets do. Forget fujiwara effect. I also notice that the closer Kate gets to that trough pulling north, the thinner the trough gets and I can imagine a hole forming as she meets it and her bursting through it like a kid bursting through a ribbon or something. That could get really interesting if she gets past 60 -65W Just a few questions on my mind. IF you have already answered them refer me to the archive and I will read for myself. Thanks in Advance
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Latest models..... I think Joe B. may have purchased the LBAR because it will not give up on the FL panhandle! Still an option I guess
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Coop! LOL, you might be on to something here. But no doubt the LBAR is seeing something that is keeping its run in that direction. The over all convection looks funky tonight. I guess it is that mid-level vort. the was talking about tonight in the 5P discussion. Not sure if I understand what is going on there. Are we talking just another "center" at the mid-levels or are we talking an invader into the system?
Hey Mary, anything is possible here, still could be out there for a few more days just spinning. That just opens the door for more possibilities!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Unless the battle of the H's change I would guess Larry will go south... interesting system...perplexing!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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FYI and chatter from storm2K....The 12Z Avn run has Larry taking a SE turn toward the Yucatan. Also, there is a convective flair up at 10 and 81. The is on this one and is showing some nice development from this area! Guess I should take the time to check out all the runs myself, haven't done that lately...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Latest Satellite loop looks like Larry just got spilled and is running all over mexico I have no clue as to why that cloud formation is "dripping" Anybody else got a clue.? If so, is it for sale?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Checking them out takes time.... if it is your job then all is well! Don't focus on the named storm but take a wide look..( in this case)!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Coop will do! Want to take a look at the models tomorrow if time permits...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
has anyone else noticed the little circulation that has developed near 31.6N 63.0W. It is located to the east-southeast of Bermuda and i think may be a circulation that has formed along the stationary front shown on the 6Z surface analysis. Convection is next to none, but just thought it was an interesting little feature to point out. It pales into insignifcance with Kate located to its east... and of course Larry nearing Ciudad Del Carmen!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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two atlantic tropical systems, and a quiet board today. not much in the way of threat anywhere. good ole larry is going to attempt to cross central america, undoubtedly to claim the pacific ocean and all the lands bordering it as sovereign property of spain. kate went on a power trip, well above and beyond what the official intensity forecast had her pegged, probably peaked out now and due to pass east of newfoundland on monday, perhaps to say hello. other basin areas unimpressive. however, the eastpac is cranking.. nora formed a few days ago, olaf the other day.. usually signals atlantic activity 6-10 down the road. probably another atlantic system next week, if the usual cause-effect relationship holds.
deep trough east of the islands is breaking up the wave activity, so i doubt it would be anything but pattern-directed development.. without a very suspect trigger until things fall into place.
on the eastpac side olaf may come precariously close to the mexican coast in a couple of days. not a great deal of interaction going on over there, apparently.
HF 2326z04october
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Kate is looking good and has a impressive sat. sig. tonight. Larry on the other hand looks as if he has seen his better days and we should soon be able to tell him good-bye for real, at least for this side. Still have my eye on the SW caribbean that I mentioned last night. Looks like something could get goin in that area. likes this area, but did notice that the run was a couple days behind.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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The Andrew storm story is on as we speak. It still amazes me that it was as close to Central Florida as it was and the devastation that it caused in Miami/Homestead. This is why it is so dangerous for the Central Florida Area. We get so many early mentions for threats and they do not verify. When and if the big one ever comes through the Tampa Bay area, we are all goners. This area can not handle a minor flooding event without major fall out. 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yeah Mary, I was sweating Andrew, we had a hurricane watch for our area and we got some rain but other than that all was good here. But not so for South Florida. It is a real story and picture that will forever be in my mind!! Most residents here has no real clue what it would be like and yes the flooding would be very bad...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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If not it should be
Going to bed....looked at loops... think we are about ten days to two weeks away from some last final hurrah for the season. Things have to change... air flow isn't right and the time isn't now.... but I think its probable something will happen soon.
At that point in the year where you cant decide what you want more...a cold front or a tropical storm. Ok..so we will be glad with a tropical storm but a cold front would be nice too.
Have my eye on some nice suede boots with heels and you can't wear them in Florida when its 80 degrees and humid beyond words.
So...is vortexity a word?
nite gang... love ya all
you are all so funny and smart and a few of you are so strange but you are a great group.
Bobbi
ps..anyone seen Ed? Seems people round here keep disapeering, hope everything is ok.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Vortexity: A visual disturbance produced by staring endlessly at pictures of tropical features. The symptoms are shortness of breath, peering with one eye and then the other, double checking with 100+ other people to see if they saw what you saw, and referring to cloud masses as him or her/she/he. Other symptoms are loss of sleep, fuzzy eyesight, and intense craving for canned or otherwise processed foods that can be eaten with little or no preparation. Symptoms persist from June 1 to November 30 of any given year, follwed by a sense of let down and need to refocus by watching the superbowl commercials at the end of January.If all these symptoms are true for you, you have Vortexity. G'nite
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yes Bobbi, VORTEXITY is a word. LOL,Mary can back that up as she knows the clear meaning of the word! Unfortunately there is no known cure for this. We can only treat the symptoms, and each individuals outcome may vary.
In your case, I would suggest that you go buy those boots you are looking at before they are gone! This may indeed help with any of the symptoms you are experiencing. I mean heck, if the weather doesn't cooperate for you just crank the air down real low in the house and put those boots on girl. Hey, should be able to wear them out at least a couple of times before next hurricane season begins.
I was wondering about Ed also, must be taking a much needed break!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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by tuesday larry should be dissolved or a pacific system, and kate should be a large north atlantic gale. might be a couple of days of nothing.. but i don't expect next week to be without new activity. is friendly and the locked pattern in the deep tropics is starting to progress again.
areas to watch:
eta is still trying to generate some kind of suspect area near the yucatan.. since no other modeling is very concerned, it is probably nothing, but keep your eyes peeled in the area in case something starts to gel.
east of florida, frontal tail and incident low pressure will finally be out of a shear jet as the trough in the east recedes.. energy should begin to back up in this area as represented on several models. watch for low pressure to organize east of the bahamas middle/late in the workweek. probably hybrid in origin.
near the islands the deep upper trough is weakening, wave energy is finally beginning to break through and not just shearing out NE. no model is very enthused, but with the breakdown of the upper feature this area and the caribbean will start to become more susceptible to low pressure organizing.
one other area is the mid/upper energy following kate, which is currently undergoing a great deal of shear and unlikely to do anything.
bastardi was calling for a low to form in the SW caribbean.. pattern improving but i don't see any source feature.
HF 1954z05october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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I suppose I have vortexity..or did earlier in the season
don't see any feature down in Carib just yet... will keep watching...
As for Larry...he keeps slip sliding away... bet the guys at HATE him by now 
Bless you all... yeah yeah ALL of you... even you know who you are
Bobbi
Easy fasting to anyone who is jewish and fasting
Strong winds always happen btw..during Sukkos holiday next week in Miami... pattern starts to change at this point.. give it a good week and bet Bastardi's feature will appear..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 05 2003 09:58 PM)
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lorio
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Putnam Co. FL
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I notice that Nora is forcast to approach the Mexican coast north of Matzatlan just in the wake of Olaf. In recorded topical cyclone history has one storm ever followed another onto the same coast within a couple of days? Those people must be thinking "Pobre Mexico, tanto lejos de Dios, etc.etc.etc."
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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That poor country is always getting bombarded with storms and earthquakes. It is almost as though they are the center of weather. It is no wonder the Aztec Indians were so superstitious and had so many rituals . I think I would count a few extra rosary beads myself.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
Edited by Mary K. (Mon Oct 06 2003 09:10 AM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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From this mornings 11am Discussion:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
I wonder if this is the possible source of the low that some models are developing mid-week?
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>It is no wonder the Aztec Indians were so superstitious and had so many rituals .
Ever see any of their gods? Those are the most insane gods ever. Quetzalcoatl, Xipe Totec, et al - they've got some real sick ones by today's standards. Lemme see if I can find a link:
Xipe Totec
Scary.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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What are the models showing about this wave if anything because upper winds will be more favorable in comming days.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I am surprised that no one has mentioned the cluster of showers over the Bahamas.. I know that it is possible to have rain for a day or two without it being anything remarkable. But, hey, this is October and Cape Verde season is about gone. The Gulf has probably run out of summer contenders. There is the wave coming from the east of the Antilles, but, the Bahamas, now that little spin up would have Florida East Coasters buzzing if it was May 31 or June 1st. With a Full moon on the 10th of this month. There could be a surprise in store. But, maybe not.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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I've noticed that area around the Bahamas too Mary, but even if it does develop the flow is from west to east and it would most likely head ENE or NE. Elsewhere it's pretty quiet, don't see anything imminent developing.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Like the wave east of the islands better than the blob in the bahamas tho its probable that the bahamas will flirt with the idea of becoming warm core faster than the wave will develop.
Stay turned..
Think we can pretty safely declare the Cape Verde season over... I'll listen to any good arguements otherwise but think its pretty much dead. Done? Over for the next 10 months.
Gone Fishing?
Miss John standing in front of those dots on the blue screen talking about places where we can expect activity. Just not the same, ya know?
Have a great day everyone.. bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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There are some signs looking at IR and Visual that the enviroment around the Winwards is improving for development. The wave there that was not showing convection expanding to the west due to shear is now showing signs of gaining ground. The 11am discussion was unimpressed but models show development potential.
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Jara
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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?? please give details
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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The ULL in the mid-Carribean is forecast to drift west with High Pressure to build behind creating a better enviroment for development. The GFL model tries to develop a tropical system and move it over PR and into the Bahamas.
Looking at the Sat pics it appears that the convection is expanding west which up till today has been supressed by a circulation over Northern SA and a trough in the mid-Atlantic. The trough is suppose to slip out that while the North SA feature is suppose to weaken.
Thats the best I can do. I'm waiting for HanKFranK or Steve to come on and explain it better.
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Jara
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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ha! you've got it covered, man.. best as i could. steve would probably say something different/better, 'cause he's got bastardi's ideas to play over in his mind at any given time.
i've been watching the basin shear.. it's up to where nothing can easily get going most everywhere.. in this environment only a NE-moving system would get very strong.. unless the overall shear decides to drop off again. usually when it gets up like this.. season is about finished.
HF 2218z07october
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