Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
This is behind Nicholas and may develop into TD#20 and Oddette making this CV season one of the most active seasons on record.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Cycloneye--wow, another CV storm. Pretty amazing season so far, huh? Regarding Nicholas, all the models now forecast him to spin fish...but...looking at this WV imagry , it appears Nicholas will definitely miss the first trof, but should be grabbed up by the second one. With the latest invest, we may be looking at another long tracker. As someone else pointed out, we may indeed get to P & R (Peter & Rose..."Pete Rose"). Just in time for him to be considered for the HOF. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I'm still here. A little quiet. I don't know what to say.
Anyone else feel that way or is it just me?
Something about this season in so many ways reminds of 1996. It's October and there are storms out there in the Atlantic and I have to keep shaking myself sort of saying "Bobbi, it's still the hurricane season." But, it doesn't feel like it. Why? Don't know. Just doesn't.
Feel like I'm in a hazy world lost between watching waves that won't make it beyond a mere curiosity and waiting for the cold fronts that are slowly seeping through the sieve Miami puts up to try and protect itself from the weather from up north.
It's there. I go to Orcas and I grin, even giggle a drop but then what? So its there?
Will it do anything but swim off to sea?
Wondering what November will bring or will we be told to wait til next year and next year and next year?
It's like I can "feel" something happening but will it get caught up on a tropical breeze and simply slip away?
watching, not really waiting but im watching
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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What if: The season never stops. What if the CV keeps spitting out storms from now until next June 1st. What if the Islands and the Keys and the NC Banks and the Gulf coastal regions keep getting hits and threats of hits from this time forward to next June.
What if the storms turn into Noreasters as they approach the Northern coasts with hurricane force winds and ice storms. And then next year: nothing. not a disturbed weather area to be found, no TDs no ts, no canes, nada, not a breeze or a stir..... Trick or treat?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Why not just have massive, 250 mph category 5 hurricanes all year around? Now there's a treat.      
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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what if this season slowly winds down, then the next one comes along just like normal? i mean, is there a chance that the global weather patterns of recent millenia will possibly continue another year? is that just unbelievable or what...
HF 2118z16october
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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this late in the year active areas are supposed to be the caribbean and southwestern north atlantic.. oddly most everything of interest is in the eastern atlantic.
the disturbance east of nicholas, that a couple of days ago i called a non-development threat.. is clinging to some kind of surface circulation and popping convection.. as 94L. sheared and still unlikely to develop, but it's already done more than expected. that paired with nw-truding nicholas is backing up and absorbing all of the wave energy in the deep easterly flow.. nothing gets into the caribbean this way.. so whatever pattern triggered development may try to take place as troughs amplify in the eastern u.s. has less to work with.
nicholas is going to turn more northerly for a couple days.. then may keep going in said direction, or perhaps slow down under shear and turn westward in the shallower flow. either the storm heads into the north atlantic, or will try struggling westward next week.
southwest of nicholas an disturbance is flaring and moving poleward.. if this persists it will perhaps take a shot at development too.. and complicate the nicholas situation.
off in the northeast atlantic a couple of lows have/are occluding.. one has degenerated into a nonconvective swirl, the other is still throwing convection. the latter is at a fairly high latitude... either is an unlikely but longshot possible for subtropical development.
most caribbean activity seems to be moving over to the pacific, feeding into a fairly active monsoon trough.. something may come out of this on the pacific side.. no trigger for an atlantic system is yet in place.
HF 2143z16october
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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HF - Great reply. Been sitting here all damn day trying to come up with something that was...appropriate. And you NAILED it. Nice.
Back to the weather. Seems like conditions are improving and we will have a minimal hurricane by sometime tomorrow. I'm still sticking with the official forecasts and models for Nicholas to be picked up by the second trof and to spin the fishes.
Earlier, Bobbi mentioned this year seemed like 1996.
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Weather forecast for tonight: dark. ~George Carlin
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Oct 17 2003 06:38 PM)
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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ROFL Mary, what are you growin in your garden? Hey would not be totally suprised about anything this season....
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Well, I figured since Hurricane season does not USUALLY begin on April Fool's day, it would take a Halloween trick to make this season more interesting than it already has been. I am enjoying the barely concealed excitement on other website's. You can see people rooting for Nicholas to make it across the pond, even though they are saying he is fish bait.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Storm just sat there and spun.. first storm I remember issuing press releases as to when they would start issuing advisories again when it made Atlantic OceanFall
wierd year... the wierdness persists too 
great summer for writing online and playing, not much else to do
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
looks like a bouquet of pretty flowers..
look fast, am sure they will change
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Thats what I like....a decisive model output!!
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, the models are still all over the place, but since Nicholas will probably only spin fish, it probably doesn't matter. He is forecast to become a Hurricane, probably not by the 5:00 (slight chance), but more likely by the 11:00. Nicholas will definitely spare the islands, but could threaten Bermuda (not likely).
Invest 94L looks crappy now. Maybe the CV season is finally over. Who knows, it's been a strange year so far. Next up: No-No Odette
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while. ~Kin Hubbard
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Oct 17 2003 06:34 PM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Phil you said it right this has been a strange and I say weird season that started in april with ANA,in june TD#2 formed in the eastern atlantic and now Nicholas formed in mid october in the east atlantic so are we done after Nick is gone or we may see 1-2 more? Already 2003 is the 7th most active season in record so imagine if la nina were in the pacific how many more systems would haved formed besides the 14 already.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A little comedy courtesy of the . I was over at S2K and saw my boy StormsFury had the animated loop for the 45k run. After watching the run, I thought it was cool enough to throw up over here for whomever missed it. Some talk around that Joe B was going to get his South Florida hit one way or another, though my subscription's up until June. Come to think of it, I still need a Florida hit too to verify (and my landfall forecast came out before his -muhahahahahaha).
Anyway, just throwing it out there for fun:
MM5 (PSU Model) 45k Animation
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 18 2003 02:13 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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... has been posted in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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