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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: The Rules of Engagement
      #13953 - Mon Nov 10 2003 12:20 PM

Rules of engagement stated very well Ed, thanks.

And, agree with Steve on things he has said.

This is a great site..am still watching tropics and won't say it's over til it's over. November 30th.. End Date. Deadline. Game is over.

Til then.. I'm here...reading and watching and may peek in occaision.

Still pathetically watching area of showers which persist in Atlantic before islands.. don't expect much.. but hard not to notice.

thanks.. Bobbi
and as stated re: JB.. got to give him credit for taking the chance, so many people sit around and complain and pat themselves on the back after the fact but few will take the chance and go for it. Whether he is right or whether he is wrong, he's doing it his way. No one is breaking your arm to pay him and no one is breaking your arm to sign up for free month trials.

A lot of people round here should take a lesson and take at chance at what they want to do before the opportunity is gone, the moment has passed and the season is over.

Bobbi

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Last Invest of 2003?
      #13954 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:25 PM

Invest 97L has been initiated.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Low pressure center forming in Caribbean?
      #13955 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:26 PM

From the NHC's 105 pm EST discussion (the first part essentially repeats the 1130 am tropical outlook):

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...
AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALREADY LOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING IN THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT 100 NM NORTH
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Last Invest of 2003?
      #13956 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:27 PM

You beat me Jara on posting it and that is a good question and I think that yes it is the last one.Raining hard here in Puerto Rico today as we are close to that system

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
It's now -97 Invest
      #13957 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972003) ON 20031110 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
031110 1800 031111 0600 031111 1800 031112 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 69.4W 14.5N 69.6W 15.1N 69.5W 15.6N 69.0W
BAMM 13.8N 69.4W 14.5N 69.9W 15.1N 69.8W 15.3N 69.6W
A98E 13.8N 69.4W 14.6N 69.3W 15.1N 69.6W 15.2N 69.7W
LBAR 13.8N 69.4W 14.8N 69.6W 16.2N 69.6W 17.6N 69.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
031112 1800 031113 1800 031114 1800 031115 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 68.6W 17.9N 67.4W 21.1N 63.7W 23.4N 56.3W
BAMM 15.6N 69.4W 16.8N 68.6W 18.9N 65.7W 19.1N 61.3W
A98E 15.6N 69.5W 16.9N 68.7W 18.2N 66.9W 18.0N 65.2W
LBAR 18.9N 69.2W 21.2N 68.6W 24.8N 66.2W 29.2N 56.7W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 69.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 68.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: It's now -97 Invest
      #13958 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM

Oops--didn't see your post Jara

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
RECON
      #13959 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:40 PM

407
NOUS42 KNHC 101730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1230 PM EST MON 10 NOVEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z NOV 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 17.0N 65.0W
E. 11/1900Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES AT 12/1200Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
About as colorful as a Puerto Rican Parrot right now
      #13960 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:45 PM

If you look fast...looks almost like a parrot.

Very cute. Checked for an invest this morning before I posted, just in case... came back from lunch pleasantly surprised. Okay...even though I checked.. I didn't really believe..

so cool.. have to watch.. guess its not over yet

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
ps water temps
      #13961 - Mon Nov 10 2003 02:49 PM

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sst.gif

are quite warm there...able to get something going even this late in november

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Models
      #13962 - Mon Nov 10 2003 04:03 PM

The first Tropical Models of 97L all take it north then out to sea. Globals are all over the place.

Tropical Models

Global Models



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Models
      #13963 - Mon Nov 10 2003 05:10 PM

should anything form it's almost a sure bet it's a fish spinner.......nice to see a bit more activity, though.......I hate to see the season come to an end......it's been an interesting one........

Kudos to John, Mike and Ed......you guys ROCK!!!

see ya'll next year.......


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Odette's Engagement??
      #13964 - Mon Nov 10 2003 05:13 PM

While I see a lot of hype on local TV (Kamal was gushing) and lots of models walking down various aisles I don't see an engagement ring.

Get back to be when someone has a diamond ring. Maybe then Odette will pay attention to all the hollywood hype.

What is the P storm this year? See, what I find annoying about attemps to assign numbers to the season is that... in my opinon that rainstorm that everyone here argued over in the Gulf should have been Odette and this SHOULD have been the P storm. But, then what's in a name?



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
What's next...
      #13965 - Mon Nov 10 2003 05:22 PM

Odette, Peter & Rose. Doubt we'll make it to Peter though.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
POOR PETER
      #13966 - Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM

So close and yet so far....

one letter away and the wrong sex

(got cheated...they should never have named that last one nicholas the second)

if i were Peter..I'd sue

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Models
      #13967 - Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM

huh? how could it be a fish spinner if it forms in the caribbean and comes out? ringed with islands..?
anyhow remember glancing at that thing last night, thinking NAH. glancing tonight, thinking HMMM..MAYBE. upper winds are supposed to improve (same voice in head says YEAH RIGHT).. and it looks like a low is forming at the southwest edge of the convection, if closed it is very weak. first thing that my mind envisions for any development would resemble klaus of 1984. thats what i'll say for now, 'til i run through the models and see what they do.
HF 2237z10november


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