Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Maybe a close-out system for the season, but its still very disorganized. Active wave in the east central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles south of Puerto Rico with good convection in a broad area of low pressure. Some hints of low-level banding, so RECON may take a look at it on Tuesday. Slow movement to the north northeast and eventually northeast. Upper level environment may become a little more favorable on Tuesday.
Heavy rainsqualls and gusty winds likely for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Models take the system to tropical storm strength, but...not quite the best of conditions for strengthening. Certainly worth watching.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Really cool, how often do you get the two of them on discussing a tropical system in November and with Cantore doing the color WV loop.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Looks really impressive on IR. I am sure that I am not alone in saying that developing tropical systems (waves) this season for the most part have held up very well in hostile environments. I hope it is not a trend. Nevertheless, if this does develop it will be either sheared apart, or pushed into fish-spinner territory.
mitch...
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Agree with you there Mitch. This system looks quite well organised on both visible and IR imagery. Recon are in there now investigating this system, so we should know its true status within the next few hours.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i'm willing to bet this thing has multiple centers right now. appears to be one just north of the east tip of the d.r., possibly another (more likely mid level) south of the v.i., maybe another centroid feature near the south coast of puerto rico. because they are so spread out, i doubt this system would get depression status right now.. but with all the cloud debris in the area it's hard to say. may be something down there worth giving the upgrade to.
my forecast:
probably a tropical cyclone tomorrow, moving slowly n or nw near puerto rico.. north out to sea later in the week, possibly stalling out and dying as the escape shortwave will blow by too quickly to take the system out.
HF 1912z11november
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/1745 UTC 16.7N 65.7W T1.5/1.5 90
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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latest satellite seems to show a def. LLC moving fairly rapidly NE and was sittng right on 17.5/65.0. I think we have a storm, but it will never threaten the mainland. EDS>
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doug
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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amazing.. has had a good look for a while now
go with consistency
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Well recon are once again now investigating this disturbance. At least it is organised enough to generate TNumbers of 1.0/1.5. Not very strong i know, but its a start. Remains rather ragged looking on satellite. Of course, this disturbance probably still has multiple centres, so finding an accurate 'fix' or closed circulation might be a little difficult.
Anyways, will post again when there are any new developments.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Think that's interesting. Not just a broad area of low pressure.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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From the recon reports that have come back so far, looks disorganized (as expected) but with low pressure - I've seen a 1005 mb report, so it looks like it's at most 1005 mb.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS COMPLETED ITS
INVESTIGATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE LOW STILL DOES NOT HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW CENTER. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
i know were watching the disturbance down in the Caribbean, but i thought i would just let you know about a Major Atlantic Storm that is expected to impact parts of the UK tonight and Friday. The image attached shows it at 1130Z this morning, and it has gotten better organised since then too! Ship reports and bouy data support storm force winds in the southwest quadrant at present, with recorded gusts of 90 mph. THe Met. Office over here are warning of winds near 60 to 70 mph in some inland areas, with gusts near 90 mph over coastal areas or exposed locations! Anyway, just thought i'd let ya know
Regards as always...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Interesting image Rich. Classic comma shape. Here on Long Island we're under a HIGH WIND WATCH...already sustained at 40+ MPH and scheduled to have gusts of over 60 later this afternoon. All created by a huge Low pressure gradient up in Northern New England. The whole east coast of LI is under the wind watch. Check out the color enhanced satellite:
NE Winds
This from my local NWS:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... A STRONG INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EAST. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THESE HIGH WIND GUSTS...PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS...WILL DOWN MANY TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DURING THIS TIME.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I guess they're not expecting too much out of the disturbance in the viscinity of Puerto Rico. Still, almost a foot of rain has already fallen and they're expecting much more. So it's no picnic...but no TD either.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EST THU 13 NOVEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOV 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-165
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON THE SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO CANCELLED BY AT 13/1500Z.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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To cause heartache and pain.
Do you?
Case in point... look at Puerto Rico.
No name... so we don't have an official system..
Tell that to the people who are drowning in rain
They don't really need a name
Seems like lots of weather everywhere...but here in Miami, sunny hot days.. could use some weather.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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still a broad, multiple-centered low near puerto rico, with the strongest activity extending a few hundred miles to the northeast. some models show the low pressure persisting for a couple more days, but there isn't a big development bandwagon at this point. worth noting that some models are pointing to a low developing east of this area around the middle of next week, as a sort of post-frontal feature. just something to look for.. by this time of year not much more can be expected to happen.
HF 2015z14november
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The east coast "storm" that passed through my area yesterday and today had stronger gusts than we got from Hurricane Floyd in '99 (he was just barely a hurric when he passed over). Mount Washington, in New Hampshire, recorded gusts that were the equivalent of CAT IV strength...and that was after their anomometer started working again. They estimate CAT V strength winds knocked it out! Lots of downed trees, tree limbs, scattered power outages. Not a lot of fun, as the wind chill was below freezing. Anyhoo...
still need to watch the tropics, but at this time of year, there's probably not going to be too much action.
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"The weather is like the government, always in the wrong."
-- Jerome K. Jerome
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the low pressure that has been persisting near the islands for days now has a fairly well-defined center north of the virgin islands, which has an ongoing convective burst. it's drifting south or southwest at the moment.. if the convection persists for long it may be back on the track of organization.
it's november 16th.. nothing else of note.
HF 1605z16november
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It's back...
97L Invest
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Just checked the SATS and, maybe it's just me, there is not anything there any more. EDS>
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doug
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longtracker
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
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There is still a circulation center over the Bight of Gonave---the place bewteen the two 'arms' of Haiti.
Looks like that's all folks!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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looks like hispaniola killed it. still model rumblings with the persistent trough that spawned 97L that probably are about as accurate (little/no development). not quite ready to put the last nail in the coffin of the 2003 season as of yet, only nearly so.
it's about time to start making the 2004 crystal ball predictions. at least if the point is to not parrot gray or other forecasters/agencies that like to make educated guesses at what next year will be like. right now i'm thinking weak el nino with more of the same (mjo triggered bursts) and slightly lower totals than this season. i'll get something together around thanksgiving, next week. probably a forum post where everybody can display their thoughts.
HF 1910z18november
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Discussing tropical activity around Haiti and blaming Haiti for breaking up any circulation. Make a cake for Bastardi's Daddy on this one..
Watching a beautiful front sweep across the state of florida and see some activity down in the Atlantic but right now nothing looks like its going to come to life.
Wishing doesn't make it so and rules are meant to be broken so if there is some lull between fronts don't count out possible development on a small scale.
But, for now.. as they say.. looks like that's all folks indeed.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, it's not November 30th yet...but I'll hazard a guess we're not going to get to Odette. Next up: Alex in 2004. I guess a few of you will be posting 2004 predictions soon. Maybe I'll take a crack at it...gotta do a bunch of research first though. Thanks for getting me thru Isabel and beyond. 
Hey Ed, now that the season's about over, maybe you want to change the site back so non-registered posters can post...I mean, it is real quiet -- probably anyone checking this board is (hopefully) not a wacko!
By the way, here is an EXCELLENT article about the potential impacts of NWS issuing 5 day forecasts, as opposed to the old 3-day ones.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Low-ish looking spin down that way. check it out..if anyone is still stoppin by...
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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no more s being issued, but that deep layer low 1000 mi east of bermuda or so may be detaching from the frontal structure nearby (like olga did a couple years back). worth a look. it doesn't look tropical, but it is starting to look sub-tropical. not going to post a forecast thread in the forum after all, just throw out my 2004 numbers: 11-6-3. think a weak el nino will persist through next season.
HF 2134z02december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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those guys already trumped my numbers, so they won't look like much if they get 'em right. except when you consider i've just about nailed 'em dead on three years running. luck, baby.
HF 2137z02december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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third of december, and there's an invest. no, not that gale center out in the central atlantic (not developing), but in the sw caribbean. what's more is that it has some banding features, maybe a weak low pressure. add to that, globals seem to like it for the next couple of days. then perhaps, hurricane zombies like us can go back to sleep. until june 2004.
HF 1546z03december
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 12Z DEC 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.7 76.9 45./12.0
6 12.0 77.9 286./10.4
12 12.6 78.2 337./ 6.6
18 13.0 78.7 308./ 5.9
24 13.7 78.5 15./ 7.2
30 14.4 78.9 328./ 8.8
36 14.1 78.9 178./ 2.8
42 14.3 78.1 77./ 8.3
48 15.3 77.7 25./10.0
54 16.3 76.2 56./17.5
60 17.9 75.0 36./20.0
66 19.7 74.4 18./19.0
72 21.4 73.2 36./20.3
78 23.1 72.0 35./20.3
84 24.5 69.5 61./26.2
90 26.8 66.4 54./36.6
96 29.4 62.7 55./41.5
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Now back to sleep....
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Whats happening... someone talk .. last I heard on local news out of South Florida was that they weren't expecting anything to develop. Have they changed their tune?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Possible fish spinner..... don't see much else 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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fish spinner in the caribbean? ringed by islands? not possible, unless it completes its life cycle without moving much. a fish spinner is a storm that stays far out to sea in the atlantic, not any storm that fails to hit the united states.
true this is only a potential threat to jamaica/hispaniola.. but it is by no means a fish spinner if it develops.
HF 0100z04december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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then again, i'm not entirely sure that central atlantic feature won't offer us a reason to look. models have it failing to phase with the easterlies, meander, not exactly drying up and shearing out immediately.
of course there's 98L, with its d1.0 and good model support that may very well be an out of season storm if shear doesn't beat it senseless. hasn't been a tropical cyclone to form in december since 1984.. not one in the deep tropics since long before.
HF 0418z04december
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DSAAT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
715 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA... HISPANIOLA... SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR .
ALL INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER AVILA
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nrl has it posted as such. likely story, sucker is looking a lot better organized. have a hunch that recon is going to find 'odette', which would be superfluous and serve to skew everybody's forecast numbers at this point. but, that's life.
HF 1449z04december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nhc has gone ahead and classified the system as t.d. 20. the upgrade has been made without recon, which will be there later today. little strengthening is forecast, they think it will move north and become sheared rather quickly. i'm not so certain, think it will get a bit stronger.. than 40kt at least. might already be there when recon arrives. since a warnings are already up we'll be getting intermediate advisories (make that 1pm est).
HF 1500z04december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Interesting. Good catch yesterday, HF. What % would you think this will become Odette? 50/50? Here's what the models are predicting...
tropical models
Global Models
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Assuming Odette forms (I actually forgot what storm name we were up to and had to check), that's quite a long stretch from first to last storm in a year (April-December).
Hope everyone in the islands is paying attention! I wasn't. Surprise, surprise...
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Wow !! Great call Hank. Well, this has turned out to be a season of surprises.
From the latest vis loop click here it sure looks impressive, despite its relative small overall size.
If this TD turns into a TS or hurricane, it will be the 2nd tropical event in recent memory to travel WEST towards the islands. The last one that I can recall going "backwards" was Lenny.
mitch...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TD 20 sure looks impressive. I'll bet the hurricane hunters do find TS winds this afternoon. Some year, huh? Ana in April and Odette??? in December. Happy Holidays and Happy Tracking at the same time. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 10:49 AM)
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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(Off topic post removed by Moderator)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 10:51 AM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Dvorak numbers 2.5; they were 1.5 six hours earlier.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 78.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202003
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.12.2003 12.6N 78.1W WEAK
00UTC 05.12.2003 13.5N 77.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.12.2003 14.3N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.12.2003 15.3N 76.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.12.2003 16.3N 75.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.12.2003 16.9N 74.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.12.2003 17.1N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.12.2003 17.1N 71.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.12.2003 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TOO 041833
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As of 1:00, our tempest is still just a TD. I'll bet by 5:00 if not 11:00 we have Odette. That will make 15 TS or Hurricanes in one season. Busting everyone's forecasts in the process. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 10:52 AM)
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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LI Phil, see my post above and check
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I checked with Weather Underground, not . My bad...should always go to the source.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO CHECK IF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLANDS AND SAMANA CAY AND FOR THE TURK AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
AT 1 PM...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY.
AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING HAITI AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES..
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...13.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
4 PM EST.
FORECASTER AVILA
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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HMMM!!! Moving NNE and we have low pressure zipping along the gulf coast, amd some indication of a coastal storm developing off GA...any thoughts of the heat/energy from Odette being caught up into that and firing off a really big NE'er this weekend? EDS
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doug
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Odette is now officially Odette, as of the 4:00 update. Fifteenth named storm of the year. I sure as h--- hope Odette doesn't just add to my weekend misery. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 10:54 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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2003 has been pretty amazing. We had an April and a December storm. StormsFury at S2K did some research and found 1 year that also had post and pre season acitivity. I think that was 1867 (Civil War era).
If I don't get back with everyone, and Kevin, be sure to check the Everything and Nothing forum at least by Monday, have a great Christmas/New Years.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 10:57 AM)
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Lil my thought when I saw this was the Oct 1991 storms, ( the Perfect Storm). I think the next system to come across may catch TS
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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was watching that sucker all last week. For a bit I thought she was dieing out. But she came back.
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