Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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His take is in times of deamplification, the trofs will be in the nw and ne. But during amplification (and he's torn between the lakes or rockies I think), if it's a strong trof, it will bring the ridges screaming back and just lift those trofs out in a 3 day period. Otherwise, they'll split with a piece heading out and another coming through the TN valley toward the Gulf.
I don't know if that helps, but that's been his rant for the last few days. He also said on Wed. or Thurs to watch out for the shot at at a long-tracked wave late next week. I thought he was talking about the wave emerging from Africa, but I get the feeling that it's 49/10 that's going to be in the area in the next Thurs-Saturday period. What he did say was that the way the lows are backing across the Atlantic this year and the way the ridges are moving in tandem with the waves coming off of Africa, it's looking more and more like a Gulf and SE landfalling year.
At least that's what I've been getting from the discussions.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
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I remember
I lived Camille on the Mississippi coast
She was no LADY
Was in Flroida for Andrew...
It has been a long time since we had a major Hurricane.
I hope this is not the year.
JustMe
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I know my father had some pretty grim stories about Camille! If you follow the math a little, and if that would be correct.. the FL panhandle is comming due!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Young Droop
Unregistered
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oh great....we just got the beaches replenished here on pensacola beach. a hurricane will destroy it all again. is it just me or do all these storms see to like the central gulf coast as their target the last couple years? i think i should move back to indiana before the big one comes...which im hoping it doesnt. we never know though...so im not gonna worry till the time comes to worry.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The wave at 10N 49W looks a little more healthy tonight. Have to see what comes of it in the morning.
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sweep
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Columbia Mississippi USA
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Mississippi is a bit overdue for a big storm. The last one
to catch us straight on was Elena in early September
( Labor Day) 1985. That one sure did pull a fast one
on the trackers.
Speaking of Elena, there are some beautiful photos of
this storm over the Gulf of Mexico that were taken by
the crew of the space shuttle Discovery. I saw one on
a NASA web site not long ago. You could clearly see
the banding and the tops of convection around the center.
It's worth a look if you haven't seen it.
Ira
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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That wave at 11N/49W looks damn healthy to me......think it warrants to be on the Invest sheet and wouldn't be very surprised to see a TD in the next day or so out of this one if it continues to roll. With all that activity in the , maybe we're ready to roll with the first burst of development. Cheers!!
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Looks very good on IR loop this PM. If it can just climb a little and stay away from land, looks like chances for development are good.
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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novice
Unregistered
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Sorry to disagree but Georges sure left his mark on south Mississippi. I was at ground zero for that one and don't want to see another one here in Pascagoula, MS. I know our time will come again but don't forget to give us credit for Georges.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
the wave about 700 miles east of the Windwards is showing some pretty good potential. Viewing the IR loops from GHCC on this one shows it has become better organised, with definate rotation and some nice deep convection. Am surprised that this is not even an invest on as yet. If it continues its development trend i think we could see TD#4 later today or on Monday. Of course, visible imagery will show better the structure of the system, but i think the islands should watch this one closely!
Regards,
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Agree that the wave looks well organized this morning but I guess that they are waiting for visble pics to then put up the invest.Already the SSD T numbers agency has begun looking at it as too weak. I am watching it from PR for sure and itwell may be a player for the next few days .
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Looks good to me this morning. There seems to be a clear spin at around Lat.10 and Lon.50. Most of the convection seems to be out in front of the system. The outflow also looks good. If this thing keeps cranking it could show us some of its stuff today.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Sun Jul 06 2003 07:45 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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OK,
the 06Z surface analysis now shows our system at 10N 50W as a Tropical Wave BUT with an accompanying 1009 mb low. Visible imagery shows a decent looking system, but not much in the way of any significant banding features. has now posted an invest on this system (as 95L) and give it a pressure of 1009 mb and winds of 25 knots. Should give us something today i think, possibly a TD?
Regards,
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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