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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Central Florida
      #7644 - Sat Jul 12 2003 11:44 PM

OK, I see the LLC on what looks like a WSW drift...drift! The CV is getting a long ways from it. Anyone see the possiblity of another LLC forming w/ the CV? As far as the W-WSW LLC, the NHC( and others ) nailed it.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Central Florida
      #7645 - Sat Jul 12 2003 11:55 PM

Maybe a multivortice tropical strom. Any one ever heard of this?

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Central Florida
      #7646 - Sat Jul 12 2003 11:57 PM

Can't pin point when and where but yes I have!

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Central Florida
      #7647 - Sat Jul 12 2003 11:59 PM

NEW VORTEX FIX
URNT12 KNHC 130321
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0321Z
B. 24 DEG 52 MIN N
91 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1478 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 320 DEG 31 KT
G. 228 DEG 24 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 20 C/ 1512 M
J. 23 C/ 1488 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF977 1404A CLAUDETTE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 2335Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB That's 0.03 deg South and 0.15 deg West in 2 hours.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 13 2003 12:00 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Central Florida
      #7648 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:10 AM

Ever seen a multi for this long! Seems like she's had one since the caribbean.

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7649 - Sun Jul 13 2003 02:52 AM

That is really amazing ,if you check the distance from the center of circulation to the cv 1.6 degrees.I'm surprised she lives.NHC got this one right .I'll keep on bucking the system though.At least I got the turn to the N right before she hit the Yuc.Landfall will only off a little ohh maybe 800 miles.I'll make it up on the next one.You see wherever the NHC says first I'll pick someplace else, law of averages caught up with them ,they got one right. Kevin

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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




I agree.
      #7650 - Sun Jul 13 2003 03:04 AM

Don't know how this will look by morning, but here's a cool shot at 2:04 CDT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg

Me.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Claudette-ettedualC; Mirrored-dual Ctrs?
      #7651 - Sun Jul 13 2003 05:00 AM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

AS YOGI BERRA SAID...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. CLAUDETTE LOOKS
THE SAME AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. IT IS STILL BEING SHEARED AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED. FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM THE RECON ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...51 KTS VERSUS 52 KTS. THE
INITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS. THE PRESSURE
REMAINS AT 1005 MB
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20030713.0615.goes-12.ir_bw.x.04LCLAUDETTE.45kts-1003mb-250N-915W.jpg
If you look hard you can see the center to the SW of the convection.


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: SEND SOME RAIN HERE
      #7652 - Sun Jul 13 2003 06:22 AM

Hey WXMAN RICHIE, I'll order you up a BIG RAIN STORM and send it your way. If it is as dry as you say there, I hope when it does start raining you get a little at a time or you will really have a lot of flooding with the grounds so hard and dry. Hopefully you will have a wet August. The lawns and trees here are exceptionaly green and beautiful this spring and summer as we have had our share of rain. Not always been that way in times past. Any way will try and whip up some rain of ya . It's early AM and I just looked at the loop. Have to say that Claudette looks mighty punnie this morning. At last that turn to the west looks like is happening for real now. Let's see how much she can pull herself together. She sure has taught me how to use my zoom features and I have collected a lot of good links because of her!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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AlexK
Unregistered




still fighting
      #7653 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:06 AM

It looks like more convection is tryin to flare near the center. It shows that while the storm is weak,she is not ready to die. If the shear weakens, like the models predict, I could see her becoming a strong TS or 75 mph hurricane at landfall. My call-landfall on the Tex-Mex border with 65 mph winds(assuming shear lessens)

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: still fighting
      #7654 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:14 AM

Looks like the convection may be trying to re-locate over the lower center. New blob on West side, and lower center is no longer visible.

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hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: still fighting
      #7655 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:19 AM

Theres only one center to this storm, in it is very well defind at this hour. While in the last few frames of the Ir satellite, shows a small blob of convetion moving closer to the center of our storm.

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hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Storm reforming
      #7656 - Sun Jul 13 2003 09:17 AM

In the last few Satellite frames, shows a tropical cyclone trying to form covnetion around it's LLCC this morning,. WIth a recon report of 999 millibars have been found with this system so far this morning. I think this storm broke the thing holding it back!

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Storm reforming
      #7657 - Sun Jul 13 2003 09:39 AM

One thing I've really liked about this storm - it has let me begin to see and understand the "undersides" of a tropical cyclone for the first time. I think this is the first time that I've been able to see so clearly the LLC and other features. Anyone else with me on this? I've been using this site for 3 years now and always felt like the moron in the corner just nodding in agreement not knowing what I was nodding about. This storm has changed all of that.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: SEND SOME RAIN HERE
      #7658 - Sun Jul 13 2003 09:59 AM

Ok... I don't often make predictions, just observations, but my tounge-in-cheek forcast of Claudette induced rain for Orlando Florida was so accurate, I'll try my hand at another 'prediction'. Still plenty of moisture sloughing off of Claudette to provide rain for North Central Florida from about Tampa north to Gainsville.

You south Florida types will have to wait for the disturbance SE of the islands for your lawn watering.

As to Claudette herself: Landfall between Brownsville Tx and Corpus Christi, Tx. on Tuesday as a weak tropical storm. Most of the rain will be along the South and Central Texas coast and inland by Wednesday.

There: I've done it....now I can catch my flock of crows like everyone else.


--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: SEND SOME RAIN HERE
      #7660 - Sun Jul 13 2003 10:14 AM

I was just looking at that mess down by Puerto Rico...and all I can see of it is a mess. Looks the shear is just way to much for it to even consider doing anything. Anyone else have any thoughts about it?

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: SEND SOME RAIN HERE
      #7661 - Sun Jul 13 2003 10:21 AM


In reply to:

I was just looking at that mess down by Puerto Rico...and all I can see of it is a mess. Looks the shear is just way to much for it to even consider doing anything. Anyone else have any thoughts about it?



I think it will rain

...but this area has had persistance for a while now and I wouldn't completely write it off for development, but I don't think hurricane flag makers will have any new business because of this area. Even the ITZ seems quiet right now, but looking at Meteostat over Africa, there is a bubble that might influence our weather in a couple of weeks. I was looking at 62W,30N and for a while I thought this had potential, but it should get caught up in a SW-NE flow and not pose threat of development anytime soon.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Bill
Unregistered




Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7662 - Sun Jul 13 2003 10:36 AM

Lastest posted recon shows the center at about 0930 AM at @ 25.5, 92.1....north and east of the last advisory position. You can see on all the sat pics that the center is definitely further N than it was before, looks near 26 degrees now, and seems to be either same longitude or slightly east of the 0500 position. Pressure down to 996 mb (it's bombing, we will see if it is just a burst), center may have been 'pulled' under the blooming convection.

BTW, 'bombing/bomb' is a real meteorological 'term of art'- as I recall, a system is bombing if the pressure drops 1mb and hour, 'superbomb' is 2 mb/hr.

It was 1005 (based about an hour earlier, say 0400), at 9:30 was 996 , that's 9mb in 5 hrs...almost superbombing.

Like I said, lets see if it persists, if so, she is on her way...and the deeper the system, I think more likely a N of west course....

Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




TLH weather affected by Claudette
      #7663 - Sun Jul 13 2003 10:46 AM

Thought I'd summarize how our wx here in TLH has been affected by Claudette.

Thursday night we began seeing cirrus blowoff, and Friday morning you could see the 'cirrus shield' on the southern horizon, it gradually overspread the entire area. We've had milky skies ever since then.

Yesterday afternoon, we got walloped by some pretty fierce squalls. You could see the bands blowing off of C (on radar and satellite) in the sw flow and coming up here. We got wave after wave of squally weather---it would rain and blow (up to 25mph) fiercely for about 5 minutes each time, then you would emerge into sunshine and see the next squall coming....finally it settled into a drizzle for a few hours around 5. You could clearly see the curvature of the bands at they moved in, in an arc, from sw to ne.

Today....total Cs/As/ Ac overcast, sunny , only a few low clouds. Wind is hardly stiriing at the moment.

Bill


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7664 - Sun Jul 13 2003 10:53 AM

Bill...I was just looking at the GOES12-IR animation loops, and I think I saw the area that you are talking about. It is just north of 24N and it looked to me as though Claudette was trying re-organize herself a bit and succeeding.

Is that the same area you are talking about?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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