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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7665 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:17 AM

Has anyone checked out the 06 AVN run? A little interesting.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7666 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:19 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

Long range composite loop out of Slidell. Looks like we'll be getting some squalls out of Claudette as hoped (without the flooding please?). I've got lots to say, but I gotta take care of some business. I'll be on around 12:30.

Steve


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7667 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:20 AM

Hmm, I am not sure Colleen...the area I saw (and see now) is just N of 25 degrees north, and seems to have pulled up stationary or looping...the LLCC seems to be at about 25. 3 now and 92.4 (still)...seems it is coming out from under the convection again...

Looks to me like the future path is going to be much slower and not well defined as far as final landfall...the system seems to be oscillating in intensity and in terms of movement....plus, it's going to reorg now, again.

If it rapidly deepens, future motion will definitely be uncertain....however, I think it is one 'intensity oscillation" away from a steady strengthening trend.

Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




AVN?
      #7668 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:21 AM

And it show what???, Coop?

Bill


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Strengthening...
      #7669 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:29 AM

looks like the winds are catching up with the pressure drop... 996 mb, and winds upto 60 mph.

Shear is forecast to ease so perhaps she may yet become a minimal Hurricane before moving inland on Tuesday. Either way, she'll be a rain maker!

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Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: AVN?
      #7670 - Sun Jul 13 2003 11:36 AM

A possible future L @ 96 hrs GOM. Interesting to me because it mirrors what some were thinking last night w/ new centers and relocation w/ C.

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: AVN?
      #7671 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:02 PM

Looks like several models are interested in developing something a few days out of the Florida gulf coast. Anyone have any suggestions on where to view models? Ones I am looking at don't let me see where this ones coming from...but kinda looks like it is bringing that disturbance thats bothering the islands right now north and developing.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7672 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:02 PM

Wow! Good job, Bill! You nailed it right to the wall! NHC's discussion talks about it slowing down and that it had shifted it's "official" track a little more to the right. They are also waiting to see if this is just a temporary drop in pressure (they said 11mb's since yesterday) or a sign that she is gradually strengthening. With her that close to so many places in the GOM, they are probably nervous wrecks.

Today should be an interesting day.

p.s. I have an eye doctor's appointment on Tuesday, so it's very possible that I was looking at 25 and not 24.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Center relocating under convection, or looping?
      #7673 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:15 PM

That development in the Eastern GOM is the wave in the Caribbean passing near the DR right now. NWS Melbourne and Miami had said that it bears watching, though with strong Low Pressure in the GOM one wonders if anything can develop there if Claudette continues to sit and spin. The wave should continue towards the SE Bahamas. Claudette seems to be moving SSW (drifting) and may be around awhile before landfalling anywhere. If she hangs around long enuf contions are bound to improve during the next month!!! Cheers!!

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: AVN?
      #7674 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:22 PM

This is where that info came from

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: AVN?
      #7675 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:28 PM

Try this one, Domino---it plots all the models out on one simple page:

Model Plots from WREL Website

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
more changes
      #7676 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:44 PM

claudette is tottering between trends.. which will drastically affect exactly what it does. last night i decided on a weaker storm, since it was entering its worst environment yet, and pushed it mostly due west into mexico.
but, it keeps slowing down.. seems to be dealing with the subsidence, and those convective bursts are keeping the center in check overall.. tipping the system back toward a strengthening trend.
if it can keep bursting.. eventually the system will deepen to where it can re-establish its outflow and begin to work with the upper environment rather than against it.
i'm still uncertain about which path the storm will take.. retracting the point forecast, going back to a probability scheme.
A) it continues its recent history of temporary burst recharges and jumpy movement.. drifts ashore mid tuesday near the border at near its current strength 40%
B) as it nears the coast the effects of subsidence increase.. it comes ashore as a weakening system in the same vicinity early tuesday 10%
C) the system finally tips the balance into a regime of strengthening, becomes vertically deep again and tracks slowly north of west.. comes ashore as a cat 1 hurricane north of brownsville late tuesday 50%
other features:
the wave near 40w is lacking in convection, but potent and well defined. there is ridging ahead, as well as subsidence. globals track this wave as a solid feature, but none do much with it. there isnt a clear max on it.. just have to watch for an ITCZ spike. will probably start blowing convection as it nears the islands.
this wave is clearing some of the subsidence for follow on waves.. for some reason the one near 22w has a Dvorak classification on it. there is a little cluster of convection too, but at this time of year those systems tend to collapse. just have to watch.. arent a lot of models jumping on anything.
up around 35n 40w in the subtropics a nontropical low is retrograding out of the westerlies.. fairly shallow and weak, but sometimes these turn into fish spinners. one model does show what appears to be a weak tropical system around 30/50 by day 3-4.. but whether this is the same feature or the top of the 40w (or somehow both) is unclear. low shear environment.. most people dont care much about these.
finally, the wave near 65/70w. up the road, as everybody keeps saying, it appears to spawn a low in the gulf. as far as synoptic reasoning goes.. it will be past the retrograding TUTT feature and probably under the ridge currently backed into claudette. just have to wait until it clears the southwesterlies it's currently scraping against and see how robust it looks near cuba. as far as waves go, right now it looks ok.
there probably wont be anything new early next week, but maybe later in the week.. one of these features will capture our attention with claudette ashore.
a'ite, nuff.
HF 1745z13july


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: AVN?
      #7677 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:52 PM

Thanks, I appreciate the links

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
I Still Don't Buy It!
      #7678 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:52 PM

I said yesterday that I didn't buy that straight 90 degree turn to the west into Brownsville because that was too easy and this storm has been anything but easy to predict. I still don't buy it,yet. If this thing gets ant further north than we up here on the Upper Texas Coast will feel some of the effects.

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: I Still Don't Buy It!
      #7679 - Sun Jul 13 2003 12:54 PM

Soory, that was suppose to have said "any further north"

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: I Still Don't Buy It!
      #7680 - Sun Jul 13 2003 01:02 PM

Just can't seem to type correctly this morning. I was actually up all night watching this storm because I'm so flabbergasted at what she has done up 'till now.

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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: NEW LOW ?
      #7681 - Sun Jul 13 2003 01:09 PM

Possible new low formation @ 18.0 - 69.0

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Bill
Unregistered




Latest recon
      #7682 - Sun Jul 13 2003 01:12 PM

25.2, 92.2---cycloidal loop in progress.

Winds up to 65 mph, pressure down 2mb from 9:30 ob (this one is @11:30).

Seems steering currents are collapsing....and stormis getting better organized...note highest winds now NORTH of center.....still unstacked though.


Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




Also....
      #7683 - Sun Jul 13 2003 01:23 PM

Seems to be some convection gathering east of Ga, and s ofBermuda....upper low, possibly reflecting to the surface,,,


AND

THIS IS JUST JULY>>>>>

Bill


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Latest recon
      #7684 - Sun Jul 13 2003 01:29 PM

how about that. if the storm is going to start looping and moving really slowly, add another variable to the list: upwelling. apparently the warm SSTs are very deep in the western gulf right now.
HF 1831z13july


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