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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7400 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:50 PM

nothing personal but if i lived anywhere along the gulf and a storm was down there building i wouldnt feel comfortable til it is well inland somewhere else

sort of like having a cape verde down just north of the islands heading wnw and feeling comfortable and safe because a trough is digging

was the trough that was supposed to get Andrew..

nope... wouldn't run out and by more batteries just yet but wouldn't feel out of the woods for a while

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7401 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:58 PM

center is about where the NHC has her, still right on course.
scottsvb


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Yo Kimmie
      #7402 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:58 PM

I'm not ready to fire up that grill just yet... still sticking to the same story I've sung all week, this babe is going to go west... LLC is doing that right now... and leaving its convection behind... not a good sign of a developing system... now if its generating another LLC, nearer the convection, and I'm not saying that is happening, but its alway possible with this psychobabe, then all bets are off... hopefully I can keep the crow in the fridge for another storm and this one will goes off to the west... tell ya this, she's sure is fun trying to figure out....

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7403 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:59 PM

Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 12a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2003



...Claudette slows a little and remains disorganized...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern and
eastern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from progreso to Tulum.

Interests in western Cuba should continue to monitor the progress of
Claudette.

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate the center of Claudette is poorly-defined
and elongated from east-northeast to west-southwest.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was
located near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 95
miles... 150 km...northwest of Cancun Mexico.

Claudette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue with a slower
forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring
the center into the southern Gulf of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 90 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Above normal tides will begin to subside today as Claudette moves
away from the Yucatan Peninsula.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in
association with Claudette.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...21.9 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven



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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7404 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:02 PM

If the center is where they say it is, and I have no reason to doubt them, then what the heck is that swirl still down on the coast moving WSW?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
New center...
      #7405 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:07 PM

I'd be willing to bet it's near or just southeast of where the small flareup is showing on the IR. The big blowup of convection which gives this storm it's 'tropical' look has got to be one of those sucker punch MLC flareups.

We'll know for sure by 4:00pm.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7406 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:11 PM

that swirl is just a breakoff(which is normal in weak systems) as the low is elongated as the NHC states. The actually sustained center is noted around 22.4N and 88.5W near the western most small flare up. Basically Claudette is just moving along as expected her intensity is as well but i see her strengthening overnight into saturday. There has been no real surprise to her at all.

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Kimmie at work
Unregistered




Re: Yo Kimmie
      #7407 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:29 PM

Time will tell and she is certainly entertaining us. I am going to stick with a landfall close to you, and probably go down with the ship. I might be asking for some crow out of your freezer soon! Here is south La. we make crow and shrimp gumbo! Kimmie

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: New center...
      #7408 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:40 PM

Steve,

Yep. Agree with you 100% on the location. 'If' the center had relocated NE it may have been a whole new ballgame, but this is just Claudette, reloading again.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 956
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7409 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:40 PM

Well to me the 2:00 iintermediate and the actual visual evidence don't correlate..I think the NHC inplied the LLC was still over land. Maybe I misread it...the visible suggests otherwise, but if true, this thing has completely disintegrated...
I think we have a horizontal stacking issue...and the midlevel circulation is NE of the LLC, and until that "stacks up" it will remain a small storm if it survives. EDS.

--------------------
doug


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Out of the Woods! haha right
      #7410 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:41 PM

I hear ya LoisCane and I agree 100%. No one at this point should say that they are out of reach. There are a lot of different factors to consider with Claudette and they will eventually help her make up her mind as to where she decides to call home.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Young Droop
Unregistered




Re: Yo Kimmie
      #7411 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:42 PM

Can someone tell me where exactly the center may be? What im looking at loks as though it was exposed from the deep convection and now its moving eastward towards it again...eastward? no way lol I need help

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
where to draw the line..
      #7412 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:44 PM

claudette's nuances haven't caused huge track errors, but the intensity forecasts have been consistently wrong.. in an inconsistent way. very finicky. right now with the deformed core, land proximity.. and slightly cooler waters on the north yucatan coast.. claudette shouldn't do much. the core should reorganize later.. and over time shear should abate or at least reorient (unless you buy into the models that rebuild the upper high to the south and put claudette on the sour side of it's own ventilation mechanism) to allow the storm to finally stack, tighten, and begin deepening along the lines of what can happen in the gulf.
still not ready to draw a hit location, as scottsvb says exactly when and how much the storm begins to reintensify will play into how it hooks up with and evolves the nearby upper flow... only suffice to say that the sooner it begins to deepen, the more likely it will be to meander later, and probably the further north it will end up making landfall.
think steve down around the big easy has the right idea about where the mademoiselle is going.
HF 1947z11july


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Young Droop
Unregistered




Re: Yo Kimmie
      #7413 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:52 PM

There is major stacking issues with this storm...Im guessin the spin in the deep convection is the mid level spin and the low level center is located SW of it...This is happening because of that upper low i think...Its producing SE shear on the sytem and blowing the convection NE away from the LLC. If the shear lessen's then the storm will be able to stack and resume strengthing. Until then she does what she's been doing for days...pulsing up then down. Im still learning about all this so correct me if Im wrong. Thanks

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gameover
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7414 - Fri Jul 11 2003 02:56 PM

dryair

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7415 - Fri Jul 11 2003 03:45 PM

What about dryair swine?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7416 - Fri Jul 11 2003 03:52 PM

JK It's about time for you. None of the rest of us have much of a clue. Now I think I see another circulation very near the sw side of the deep convection. I still think the main circulation is exposed and over land.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7417 - Fri Jul 11 2003 04:11 PM



In reply to:


I just heard on our local news here that we are out of the woods because the big "C" will either go straight west or straight north. That puts us out of the way no matter where it goes. How about that!





Looking at the latest array of computer guesses at;

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_tracks_claudette_0307111936.gif

it would seem that the Texas coast is bound to be hit. Shoot, if you want, you can predict where this storm will go just as accurately as our most expensive giant brains.

However, when you look at the map and satellite, it is only about 650 miles from Orlando Florida, and the *clouds* are moving that way, so, I'm gonna predict it will rain in Orlando sometime in the next 72 hours.

Seriously, with a storm with the history and predictibility of this one, I would take your local weather prognosticators guesses as WAGs. That is Wild Assed Guesses.



--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Larry
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 28
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7418 - Fri Jul 11 2003 04:13 PM

Claudette sure has pulsed down per IR loop. Coldest clouds at roughly 23N85.8W per my estimate. Realize this wouldn't correlate to center. Guess we will wait to see if she surprises us again and restrengthens.

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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7419 - Fri Jul 11 2003 04:14 PM

Heres what I'am seeing. There a spin near 22.5 n and 87.5w. Movement is north or north-northeast. This is located on the western most side of the deep convection. Is this the low NHC is tracking? Or is there one a bit further west? Its been difficult to say the least and has to rank at the top when it comes to the ups and downs along with trying to track the LLC.

Models sort of split on path. Some take this to LA others TX/MX. I'am not trying to predict where it ends up, when, and how strong. People from FL to TX should watch closely.


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