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TD-like #94L has moved inland over Central America with heavy rains and gusty winds. Wave approaching Antilles but shear is high.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Michael) , Major: 6 (Michael) Florida - Any: 6 (Michael) Major: 6 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Send in Erika
      #8044 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:48 AM

This system is forcast to develope into a tropical depression within the next few hours. If it does develope out that far in the Atlantic, it could be our first major hurricane. Conditions are favorable for developement and strenghting. Cheers!

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
97L invest
      #8045 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:53 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It has persisted all along however still south of 10n.It has a good chance to be TD#6 as models are starting to jump on it but let's wait to see if it can develop but this activity this season in the east atlantic so far signals an active CV season for sure.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 97L invest
      #8046 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:01 AM

Been watching our little wave off the CV.... IR sat loop still doesn't hint of any northerly component, actually from what I can tell, might even be moving just a little south of due west.... which certainly wouldn't be good for further development.... but couldn't get a good enough view off the IR to really tell just where the center is, and this motion is only based on overall cloud direction, which is not very accurate.... I do believe that if it gets a little more north it might just take off.... still early for CV storms but this is an exceptional year as everyone knows....

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
HF...
      #8047 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:09 AM

His reasoning is the classic "B North"(?) setup over the states where a trof splits dropping a piece SW and the front comes down and sets up the trof somewhere closer to 90W. He says 32/11 (I think those were the coordinates) is the player. Moving 7 degrees west per day, despite the fact that it's only July, it might be near 80W in a week or so if it doesn't recurve.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 97L invest
      #8048 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:12 AM

Yeah, don't look at the convection wwith the CV wave. I believe the center of any rotation is beggining to form at 8.5N/32.2W, which is to the east of the convection that is moving WSW. Give it a few hours to try to fire convection around the focal point. I believe it should happen, and we could have a TD by tomorrow. Cheers!! BTW, I have a tendency to look at minute by minute changes. I'm practicing patience, as I believe this will take a day or two to organize.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
#6???
      #8049 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:47 AM

This was part of the Miami discussion already.
AT THE SAME TIME THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE TO BE SOMEWHERE NEARBY. SO THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: #6???
      #8050 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:08 AM

Boy that's long range planning!! Convection is slowwwly growing around the low.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: #6???
      #8051 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:16 AM

[image]http://http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi[/image] I hope I have captured the image that I want if not please disregard. Trying to learn new stuff. In case this does work, look at around 8.9 - 32.4 looks like the center could be farther N. than we thought. BTW that is frame #2.

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Danny and #6??
      #8052 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:54 AM

Hey guys,
just looking at the details on Danny from the NHC... anyone else reckon that 1015 mb is rather a high minimum pressure for a 65 mph Tropical Storm?? I know the relative pressures around Danny are high, but 1015 mb as a low??

As for what is currently 97L Invest... it is looking quite well organised, and i agree with those of you who think it could become #6 soon. SSD gave it T-numbers of 1.0/1.0 at midday today too...

On a side note: What was Claudette is still looking pretty impressive over extreme northern Mexico.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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pix man :)
Unregistered




Re: Image file
      #8053 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:57 AM

57497479,
on your image path that last file has to be a image file like .jpg or .gif or .bmp so on. A .cgi file is not an image file.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 958
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Danny and #6??
      #8054 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:02 AM

NHC pegs a 1014mb low at 9n and about 35w

--------------------
doug


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Image file
      #8055 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:31 AM

Thanks for the info Pix Man, one of these days I'll get it right! That pressure on old Danny boy there, does sound a little on the high side, have to say I would have to question that one Rich. Thanks for the coordinates Doug, will check it out.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8056 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:34 AM

im sorry.. see it has possibilities and looked real good but suddenly looks like the wicked witch and is whimpering "Im melting.. Im melting.." needs some help

imagine as things have gone..will look bad for about 24 hours or so and will look a little better tomorrow.. calling it Erika just yet is a bit premature

miami has milky clouds this morning and there is no air moving, i mean i know the air is out there but can't prove it looking out the window..

very wierd layer of clouds just hanging here, thought worth noting.. small little break in the grip of the high..?? no?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8057 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:55 AM

My mistake...

the pressure of Danny is 1010 mb not 1015 like i had posted. Still, i think it is still quite high a pressure for a 65 mph Tropical Storm!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8058 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:04 PM

I guest 97L is dieing while danny is becoming a hurricane

Edited by hurrcanewatch (Thu Jul 17 2003 12:04 PM)


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jimmy
Unregistered




Pressure gradient
      #8059 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:05 PM

NHC did mention yesterday in a discussion that the central pressure may be high, but there is a strong pressure gradient between Danny and the high pressure around it.

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Pressure gradient
      #8060 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:20 PM

97L isn't dying. It's actually getting organized if you look at the vis closeup on NRL. This will evolve into a TD in the next couple of days....no doubt. Cheers!!

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Tom
Unregistered




Re: Pressure gradient
      #8061 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:54 PM

Weather amateur here, how about that area of disturbed weather around 25N-62W, looks interesting on the GOES IR Atlantic, anyones thoughts?

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hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: Pressure gradient
      #8062 - Thu Jul 17 2003 01:06 PM

It would need to reorganize it's convetion on top of the LLCC before it would be made a tropical depression. Maybe later tonight

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
looks a bit better but more on visible
      #8063 - Thu Jul 17 2003 01:07 PM

not on IR but on VIS...

think 24 hours will be good

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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