Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic has no named storms
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Michael) , Major: 41 (Michael) Florida - Any: 41 (Michael) Major: 41 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8002 - Wed Jul 16 2003 01:54 PM

Claudette has entered Texas, causing some havoc as a strengthening minimal hurricane that had landfall on the South Texas Coast.

In it's wake, Tropical Depression Five has formed in the central Atlantic, well away from land. This system will strengthen, but will be a fish spinner.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mac]


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8003 - Wed Jul 16 2003 02:10 PM

Well our new TD looks ok on satellite, but not all that impressive. I reckon it may become Danny later today, but dont expect him to be around long. He will be heading over cooler waters soon, so doubt there will be much excitement with this one.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lonny307
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8004 - Wed Jul 16 2003 02:18 PM

Looks like the depression should make it to Danny. If the system develops before hitting the cooler waters. Also "E" is on the horizon around 10N 28W. Or could that be Danny first????

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8005 - Wed Jul 16 2003 03:19 PM

Could be a tight toss up between the two. We can pretty much count on TD#5 as a Fish@spinner no matter what. Looks like the CV will start to get active before to long. Can't wait to see what happens.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8006 - Wed Jul 16 2003 03:44 PM

Frankly I am not paying too much attention to TD#5 except for the stats of the season.But I am paying more attention to that wave SW of the cape verde islands because it is at low latitud and Claudette formed from a wave at that latitud.Agree that the CV season will begin more early than normal and it will be more active than the past 3 CV seasons.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GOMF
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8007 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:09 PM

Too low latitude...I would say. We've seen some of these almost crashing against S.America this year. Nevertheless, this one looks more impressive as time goes on. I won't be surprised if it's an Invest before EOD.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8008 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:12 PM

TD#5 should not brother anyone unless your way out there in a boat. As you said Cyc I am more interested in the convection in the CV region. It keeps holding together and TWC even mentioned it, as something we will have to a an eye on. Is there anything out there that could hamper development in the comming days? Let's wait and see!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8009 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:23 PM

System off CV appears to be getting a decent circulation this afternoon looking at the latest NRL sat loop... very impressive... IMO looks almost like a depression right now.... definitely has mid level circulation, not sure what's at the surface... not to low a latitude IMO since its so far east at ~31W.... any kind of WNW track would be fine where its at, if it continues to develop.... stay tuned... beside it's much more interesting than the fish spinner TD5

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8010 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:47 PM

Yeah, # 6 could be coming soon. Wonder if NRL or TPC will say anything soon about it. The global models this am did not pick up on much at all.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
five and elsewhere
      #8011 - Wed Jul 16 2003 06:05 PM

sure, knock t.d. 5 all you like. personally i like to look at tropical systems do their thing.. beautiful to watch. when they're way out there in the ocean, nobody gets hurt. fine by me. that should be our danny boy. think it's probably a little stronger than they're crediting it, but with no nearby obs there isn't much to stand an argument on.
as for the other feature.. well, im not as impressed as some of you. yeah, it looks good, but not great. great would be outside of the ITCZ.. embedded down there it's circulation will tend to be more of a convergence max than a discrete low.
of course, if it was off the ITCZ.. it would be choking a lot worse.
its just a wait and see thing, since no models are really picking up on it.
elsewhere i dont really see anything happening. the wave out ahead is also mostly and ITCZ thing and not showing signs of organization.
HF 2307z16july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: five and elsewhere
      #8012 - Wed Jul 16 2003 06:18 PM

NHC doesn't even mention the wave in the Outlook at 4PM, that's a tad surprising.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
pacing themselves?
      #8013 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:00 PM

i dont know.. would like to know what models say but will have to wait.. both look nice tho no one wants to deal with a fish, do they?

unless its fried

come on..want discussion on possibilities for soon to be TD 6 to make it where.. how will five affect six

lets go..
want talk
very hot in miami

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin--unplugged
Unregistered




Re: five and elsewhere
      #8014 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:23 PM

Actually, I don't think that the tropical wave nearing/at 30W would be doing much worse outside of the ITCZ. But we will never know. Wjy? It's a rather low amplitude tropical wave.

Like HF said...it's just your typical wait and see type feature. Think that with persistance and a small rise in latitude this one is going to surprise a few people.

This July has been damn impressive so far. Much more than I was expecting.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin--unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8015 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:31 PM

Wouldn't bet on tropical depression five affecting the wave southwest of the CV Islands. 5/Danny is moving east, and the TW is moving west.

Not to going to analyze much now because there isn't a whole lot of data to do anything with.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8016 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:05 PM

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT- EAST ATLANTIC, APPROX 1000 MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDI ISLANDS. INVEST TO FOLLOW- Dvorak CLASSIFICATION- 1.0-1.5, FYI. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8017 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:08 PM

http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/meteosat/images/mono/IR/D4/20030716-2100-IR-D4.gif...shortcut to nice picture. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: pacing themselves?
      #8018 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:16 PM

Hey Lois, The GFS on its 12 UTC run does pick up some activity in that area. In the extended range there is a lot of activity that picks up in the Atlantic as well as into the Caribbean. Looks like a classical wave train heading our way if it verifies in the near future. As Steve just said there is now a Dvorak classification on the area!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8019 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:20 PM

Cool! Something new to watch! Could not get the link to load. Anyone else having that problem?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8020 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:31 PM

Toni, copy it after the word .gif and copy it into your browser and hit go! I got two words stuck ata the end that shouldn't be there. Sorry. BTW, that came from Lou's weather watch. He has good shots of different areas of the Caribbean you don't normally get. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8021 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:33 PM

That is, don't include ....shortcut

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Looks like it's coming together
      #8022 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:39 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The last few frames you can see some good rotation.
I bet it's a TS tomorrow.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8023 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:43 PM

Thanks Steve, it worked. Boy that is a nice view. The disturbance has good out flow. Do you see anything that will stand in its way for further development?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
met
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8024 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:43 PM

disturbance s.w. of cv is the best organized system at this stage this year. could be strong depression already. plus africa full of more disturbances waiting to enter atlantic. this one could be a major storm down the road.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8025 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:46 PM

No, nothing to inhibit development. Some subsidence, but the wave ahead of it made the ultimate sacrifice. Besides, this is bringing its own water. No shear ahead. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8026 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:55 PM

Yeah met I agree.... one of the few times I respectfully disagree with hankfrank on his last post... only negative things I see right now for that might hinder further development is its low latitude (which it can over come), and its really not the CV season quite yet. But this season has been so accelerated that maybe it is time for the CV season to begin this week..

This same system would be in the NW Car or GOM and people would be jumping all over it.... I don't think TD 5 will have much if any affect on it either as its so far away and not all that strong to begin with.... guess will just have to monitor to see what happens... I'd be very surprised if it doesn't make TD status in the next couple of days...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8027 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:12 PM

TD#5 looks like Danny now...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2003&MO=Jul&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.DANNY&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Lat

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Jul 16 2003 10:06 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8028 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:19 PM

If you don't mind, where did you get your Dvorak numbers from?

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8030 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:22 PM

Go to the NRL site... My links will not work.
IT WORKS NOW ...I FIXED IT!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Jul 16 2003 10:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lonny307
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8031 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:31 PM

I must admit, that is a little weird they don't mention the wave on the tropical outlook. That is their job right. Any wave that has potential should be mentioned. Seems the ones they do mention fizzle out. So maybe that is a plus.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8032 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:42 PM

NRL site is now calling TD#5 Danny. I think NHC will upgrade at 2300.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8033 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:13 PM

Quick on the draw Toni I try to check NRL often. One thing I have learned over time is the NRL's alerts. If in question ( take Claudette ) I go w/ NRL for formation. I don't always agree w/ the track & int. If the NRL put's it out most times the NHC will follow.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8034 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:24 PM

Not sure if it was your link or not but the NRL site will get a little freaky from time to time

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
11 pm update
      #8035 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:45 PM

We have Danny boy.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8036 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:49 PM

Here's some good backround reading from the TPC:

"THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. DANNY...THE
FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH
TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO
SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF
THE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997. THESE TWO SEASONS
PRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD
ANALOG FOR 2003"

FWIW.

Also, for you SE Coasters, Joe B. is mentioning the area east off of FL/GA being ventillated late next week at a time when the NAO is predicted to go negative. A shot at some pattern development?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8037 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:00 PM

Danny has formed and to stay over the open waters. A distrubance sw of Cape Verde islands is moving west and looks like there is some type of circulation, LLC or not it looks like its getting better organized. Some shear on northwestern side of 15-25kts but wind shear fairly favorable as it heads west with shear 10kts or less on average.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8039 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:16 PM

TS Danny should have no impact (one way or the other) on what may become TD6 in a day or two - too much distance between two small (and currently rather weak) systems. As some of you have noted, the CV season is already active (Claudette had its origins as a CV wave). Short article in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8040 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:19 PM

For anyone who was watching Dr. Lyons tonight on TWC, he had some really interesting information about strengthening vs. weakening hurricanes at landfall. A discussion about 'coupling' vs. 'decoupling' winds in the upper circulation as it relates to the lower circulation. He noted that Claudette casued so much damage as a strenghtening hurricane because its upper level and lower level wind fields were in sync, allowing faster than cat. 1 winds to be drawn down to the surface...while a storm like Lili last year did not have the same effect. Neat stuff that he says has not been studied real well.

Also, he noted the disturbance at 10N and 30W and noted it was a 'cause for concern'. Also, Gary Gray noted it at Millenium (sp!) Weather as well, and if you read him often you know he almost never mentions undeveloped systems. I find it odd that NHC is giving it short shrift.

And yes, I know I can't spell Millenium to save my life!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8041 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:02 AM

It does appear there is a broad area of low pressure sw of Cape Verde islands. TPC 0200Z analysis has an area of low pressure/tropical wave with pressure 1015mb. Slow development looks quite possible over the next day or two. As stated earlier shear out ahead of this system is 10kts or less.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
send erika
      #8042 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:13 AM

i guess we're on a roll, so why not have another named storm? 30w wave (low?) is fairly perky for something so far south, and it is starting to.. well, persist. as far as prospects for such a system would go, usually when they develop that far east they curve up well before the islands.
worth noting that the lower end of the wave that spawned danny is still discernable and defined.. and now leaving the subsidence desert. worth keeping that spare eye on.
interesting looseyana steve, that joe b has a pattern system in mind for one of these stalled fronts. have to start scouring the models.. was thinking on these lines a week or so ago when the omega block was peaking in the north atlantic, and NAO was good and negative. this possibility interests me, since i'm looking for something in my back yard.
as for danny.. interest from here is how intense it can get in the time it has. good looking system.
dont forget claudette.. still rated an inland t.d. and putting down rain in west texas. might still have some structure when it reaches southern arizona in another day or so.
as far as the early season activity.. note. the two seasons NHC mentions as being this active this early.. '97 and '59.. both had very quiet augusts. maybe MJO related?
other active early seasons.. such as 1995, 1966, 1936, 1933.. '66 was on the lines of '97/'59.. but the active 30s yrs and 1995 (5 systems by july 31) went on to produce 16, 19 and 21 storms.
be interesting to see how far we go. all of the above seasons except 1997 had significant u.s. hurricane activity.
0517z17july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
soon to be hurricane danny?
      #8043 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:26 AM

At first it was suppose to be nothing more than a TD....then a minimal TS....now we're looking a minimal hurricane in the next day. At the present rate of error for the intensity forecast it's gonna be forecasted to be a Cat 5 by tonight I'm just glad I pointed out the development in this wave way back during Claudette.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Send in Erika
      #8044 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:48 AM

This system is forcast to develope into a tropical depression within the next few hours. If it does develope out that far in the Atlantic, it could be our first major hurricane. Conditions are favorable for developement and strenghting. Cheers!

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
97L invest
      #8045 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:53 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It has persisted all along however still south of 10n.It has a good chance to be TD#6 as models are starting to jump on it but let's wait to see if it can develop but this activity this season in the east atlantic so far signals an active CV season for sure.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 97L invest
      #8046 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:01 AM

Been watching our little wave off the CV.... IR sat loop still doesn't hint of any northerly component, actually from what I can tell, might even be moving just a little south of due west.... which certainly wouldn't be good for further development.... but couldn't get a good enough view off the IR to really tell just where the center is, and this motion is only based on overall cloud direction, which is not very accurate.... I do believe that if it gets a little more north it might just take off.... still early for CV storms but this is an exceptional year as everyone knows....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
HF...
      #8047 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:09 AM

His reasoning is the classic "B North"(?) setup over the states where a trof splits dropping a piece SW and the front comes down and sets up the trof somewhere closer to 90W. He says 32/11 (I think those were the coordinates) is the player. Moving 7 degrees west per day, despite the fact that it's only July, it might be near 80W in a week or so if it doesn't recurve.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 97L invest
      #8048 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:12 AM

Yeah, don't look at the convection wwith the CV wave. I believe the center of any rotation is beggining to form at 8.5N/32.2W, which is to the east of the convection that is moving WSW. Give it a few hours to try to fire convection around the focal point. I believe it should happen, and we could have a TD by tomorrow. Cheers!! BTW, I have a tendency to look at minute by minute changes. I'm practicing patience, as I believe this will take a day or two to organize.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
#6???
      #8049 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:47 AM

This was part of the Miami discussion already.
AT THE SAME TIME THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE TO BE SOMEWHERE NEARBY. SO THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: #6???
      #8050 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:08 AM

Boy that's long range planning!! Convection is slowwwly growing around the low.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: #6???
      #8051 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:16 AM

[image]http://http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi[/image] I hope I have captured the image that I want if not please disregard. Trying to learn new stuff. In case this does work, look at around 8.9 - 32.4 looks like the center could be farther N. than we thought. BTW that is frame #2.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Danny and #6??
      #8052 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:54 AM

Hey guys,
just looking at the details on Danny from the NHC... anyone else reckon that 1015 mb is rather a high minimum pressure for a 65 mph Tropical Storm?? I know the relative pressures around Danny are high, but 1015 mb as a low??

As for what is currently 97L Invest... it is looking quite well organised, and i agree with those of you who think it could become #6 soon. SSD gave it T-numbers of 1.0/1.0 at midday today too...

On a side note: What was Claudette is still looking pretty impressive over extreme northern Mexico.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pix man :)
Unregistered




Re: Image file
      #8053 - Thu Jul 17 2003 10:57 AM

57497479,
on your image path that last file has to be a image file like .jpg or .gif or .bmp so on. A .cgi file is not an image file.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Danny and #6??
      #8054 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:02 AM

NHC pegs a 1014mb low at 9n and about 35w

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Image file
      #8055 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:31 AM

Thanks for the info Pix Man, one of these days I'll get it right! That pressure on old Danny boy there, does sound a little on the high side, have to say I would have to question that one Rich. Thanks for the coordinates Doug, will check it out.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8056 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:34 AM

im sorry.. see it has possibilities and looked real good but suddenly looks like the wicked witch and is whimpering "Im melting.. Im melting.." needs some help

imagine as things have gone..will look bad for about 24 hours or so and will look a little better tomorrow.. calling it Erika just yet is a bit premature

miami has milky clouds this morning and there is no air moving, i mean i know the air is out there but can't prove it looking out the window..

very wierd layer of clouds just hanging here, thought worth noting.. small little break in the grip of the high..?? no?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8057 - Thu Jul 17 2003 11:55 AM

My mistake...

the pressure of Danny is 1010 mb not 1015 like i had posted. Still, i think it is still quite high a pressure for a 65 mph Tropical Storm!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: looks like witch in oz after water is thrown on her.. not good
      #8058 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:04 PM

I guest 97L is dieing while danny is becoming a hurricane

Edited by hurrcanewatch (Thu Jul 17 2003 12:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jimmy
Unregistered




Pressure gradient
      #8059 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:05 PM

NHC did mention yesterday in a discussion that the central pressure may be high, but there is a strong pressure gradient between Danny and the high pressure around it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Pressure gradient
      #8060 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:20 PM

97L isn't dying. It's actually getting organized if you look at the vis closeup on NRL. This will evolve into a TD in the next couple of days....no doubt. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tom
Unregistered




Re: Pressure gradient
      #8061 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:54 PM

Weather amateur here, how about that area of disturbed weather around 25N-62W, looks interesting on the GOES IR Atlantic, anyones thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: Pressure gradient
      #8062 - Thu Jul 17 2003 01:06 PM

It would need to reorganize it's convetion on top of the LLCC before it would be made a tropical depression. Maybe later tonight

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
looks a bit better but more on visible
      #8063 - Thu Jul 17 2003 01:07 PM

not on IR but on VIS...

think 24 hours will be good

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Pressure gradient
      #8064 - Thu Jul 17 2003 01:14 PM

Tom:
that is an upper low, use the WV and you will see the spin.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GOMF
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Re: Pressure gradient
      #8065 - Thu Jul 17 2003 02:07 PM

Wave is still "well-defined" per NHC, though its convection is completely disorganized at this time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Pressure gradient
      #8066 - Thu Jul 17 2003 02:53 PM

Is it possible for the remnants of Claudette to cross into the Pacific and regenerate? I still see a spin, and she is heading towards warm waters again. Has this ever happened?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
teal61
Unregistered




pacific waters
      #8067 - Thu Jul 17 2003 03:01 PM

The water is not very warm in that part of the pacific.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: pacific waters
      #8068 - Thu Jul 17 2003 03:38 PM

Lower 70s for the waters but the air is to dry... Thats around san diego.

Edited by hurrcanewatch (Thu Jul 17 2003 03:38 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
LOL!
      #8069 - Thu Jul 17 2003 03:56 PM

It's flooding. Yeah, it's been a little more than 4 days since the last time. That make it 5 straight weeks. Lemme go see if I can get a camera shot of downtown.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: LOL!
      #8070 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:40 PM Attachment (249 downloads)

5th Week Straight Flood!

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: LOL!
      #8071 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:40 PM Attachment (260 downloads)

#2

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: LOL!
      #8072 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:40 PM Attachment (265 downloads)

#3

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: LOL!
      #8073 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:41 PM Attachment (278 downloads)

#4

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: LOL!
      #8074 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:41 PM Attachment (256 downloads)

#5

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Tropical storm danny
      #8075 - Thu Jul 17 2003 04:53 PM

The latest from the NHC, is that it might not become a hurricane, because it will be most likely moving into cooler waters, with in the next 24 hours. Current winds is 65 mph with a pressure of 1009 millibars. Which is more of a pressure of a tropical depression.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: LOL!
      #8076 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:16 PM

Thanks Steve for the pics. Do you drive or swim to work these days?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: LOL!
      #8077 - Thu Jul 17 2003 08:34 PM

Looking from my area, eastern Bay Co. is looking a little tornadic right now!!!! Mvt to Gulf Co. & waters.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8078 - Thu Jul 17 2003 09:43 PM

think its fallen a little ... not happy about that.. just has to hold together for another day or two..

say 36 hours..

lois cane lol


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbi
Unregistered




wave in the Dead Zone
      #8079 - Fri Jul 18 2003 08:59 AM

has to just make it past here and before barbados should be fine...

real dead zone, very very dry air
imagine from dust storms... and other factors

other wave near barbados doing well


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cajun
Unregistered




Look North West of Danny
      #8080 - Fri Jul 18 2003 09:44 AM

Does anyone else see that LLC northwest of Danny. Isn't that cool. I thought it could be UL but its not its one the surface. Probably could be classified.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Look North West of Danny
      #8081 - Fri Jul 18 2003 10:16 AM

I dont see what you see NW of Danny, the only tropical feature that far north is Danny...clearly there is a trough pushing eastward off the NE coast, and the cloudiness seen is associated with that.
The next tropical feature is the wave along 35-36W. the Invest 97L visible suggests a LLC at 9.8 and 36. Yesterday the NHC classifed this at 1014, but does not mention it today. It is not faltering; good signature and as it gets to about 50w or so could fire convection...be patient... EDS.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cajun
Unregistered




Re: Look North West of Danny
      #8082 - Fri Jul 18 2003 11:09 AM

Look on the NRL Visible. Look just to the northwest there is a break in the clouds and a low level circ is clearly visible.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurrcanewatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Re: Look North West of Danny
      #8083 - Fri Jul 18 2003 12:04 PM

Hey if theres a Low level cirulation it is something.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
danny/97L
      #8084 - Fri Jul 18 2003 01:48 PM

danny looks like a minimal hurricane on satelite. if they don't nudge it up at five it will probably never make it.. significantly cooler waters just ahead. danny may be gone by next week or it may be around all next week... if it survives for four days or so it will have looped back over support SSTs and will be making another recurvature.. just like alberto did in august 2000.
97L looks no better or worse really.. just chugging along and not really organizing. since it's ITCZ embedded it will have a time focusing a circulation, as there is a broad latitudinal turning on either side of it. whether its prospects get better or worse is up in the air.. as shear looks to stay fair to good, SSTs increase while does subsidence.. system stands a good chance of development, but not a sure thing.
not another feature in the basin that looks very interesting..
eastpac has a new tropical storm and a follow on disturbance.. sixth named storm over there, possibly their first hurricane in a day or two. if things are twitching over there, you know an MJO wave isn't about to imminently descend and silence the atlantic basin.
HF 1850z18july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
64w 14n or so
      #8085 - Fri Jul 18 2003 04:08 PM

convection firing at about 64w 14n at 1915z . most of thi sjust since today. give a look see
water vapor


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Hurricane Danny
      #8086 - Fri Jul 18 2003 04:54 PM

He made it... 75 mph. Probably only last 6 - 18 hours as a Hurricane as the waters are cooling now... but he did it

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Hurricane Danny
      #8087 - Fri Jul 18 2003 05:10 PM

what do yall think the chances are of Danny making a complete circle and heading towards the US? Didnt that almost happen a few years ago with a storm? I am thinking it was heading out to the ne and then it circled around and hit bermuda. Anyone remember or am I losing my mind?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Hurricane Danny
      #8088 - Fri Jul 18 2003 06:10 PM

Well the 11a discussion seems to think the big loop thing is actually possible...almost like they are asking for it. Although it's probably one of those great "what if's" it'd still be rather cool. As for the names...if it lingers as a low and looses all status and regains status will it still be Danny or Danny's evil twin?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GOMF
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Re: danny/97L
      #8089 - Fri Jul 18 2003 06:13 PM

5:30 TWO is not out yet...but here is an excerpt of the 5:00PM Tropical Weather Discussion from the NWS in San Juan about 97L:
"...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 39/40 WEST WILL APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THEREAFTER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES
WEST. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A BROAD CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN
TRYING TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE. AFTER LOOKING AT CIMMS DATA...IT STILL
APPEARS TO HAVE FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...WITH
RATHER LOW SHEAR AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND PER
THE NOAA/AOML GRAPHIC...IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
AN AREA OF FAIRLY HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT FLUX POTENTIAL. SO...STILL
BEARS WATCHING.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Hurricane Danny
      #8090 - Fri Jul 18 2003 08:01 PM

I seem to recall that... I am trying to find it. If you believe the models it is real possible!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 11919

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center