Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Depression-Like Low Stuck over South TX. Torrential rains, Flash Flooding, Gusts to 40 MPH, isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts continue
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 255 (Nate) , Major: 273 (Maria) Florida - Any: 283 (Irma) Major: 283 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | >> (show all)
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: LLC
      #8362 - Thu Jul 24 2003 06:24 PM

This is not a LLC, streamline analysis has this plotted as an mid/upper level low pressure area. Looks intreasting on radar but not a LLC.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: LLC
      #8363 - Thu Jul 24 2003 06:31 PM

Good catch! Its actually more of a mid-level circulation and probably the split from TD6...and it is slowly growing. The UKMET actually did pretty good with this a couple of days ago. Now let's see - what shall I 'wish' for?
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Re: LLC
      #8364 - Thu Jul 24 2003 06:51 PM

Wasnt sure what it was I was watching but it's been nice having something to look at off the east coast of Florida.
Try these from Melbourne NWS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.kmlb.shtml

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-82&map=county&zoom=1&info=vis&mapcolor=gray%quality=100&height=800&width=1000


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: LLC
      #8365 - Thu Jul 24 2003 06:53 PM

well, thats the slowly turning core from a convective flareup this morning.. most of the convection has sheared out around it. needs to keep convection nearby to work itself into a surface low.. and better conditions aloft. that's possible.. as the trough is receding to the north and that upper low to the east would probably be a good ventilating feature.
rest of the basin: danny low really is weakening, so i'm no longer thinking it has a chance. no convection=no system.
same basic problem in the deep tropics.. too much subsidence and less convection around the ITCZ. i'd go so far as to assume MJO is positive right now, based on how scant basin convection has become. of course if this is true, in a few weeks things will turn completely around.
note to bill--you're talking about 1997. same thing has occurred to me, but i can't bring myself to believe we'll get the same results. that super powerful el nino produced a mitigating effect that i doubt our current neutral state could match, and the pacific has only produced six tropical storms.. not one hurricane, and july is almost over. expect a very different sort of year, in spite of that nagging recognition of the similar start in the atlantic.
HF 2357z24july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Re: LLC
      #8366 - Thu Jul 24 2003 07:33 PM

Not sure what to wish for Ed. This LLC is about 40 miles SE of here. Guess I hope it moves over me tonite and gives some or that rain from the "remnants of TD6" the local Wx guys have been harping/hyping the past day or so.

On the other hand it could stay put and brew for a couple days and ..........

Well just got off phone, The diving trip for tomorrow is now cancelled. The water temps off coast here are just to cold for us. A report from yesterday was that water on bottom at Fifty feet is 53 degrees. Much to cold for this Florida boy to be crawling around the bottom scouting for spots holding Lobsters. I sure hope it warms by Mini-Season next week because we will be going out then cold weather or not.

Anyway been wondering if there is any research into how the cold water upwellings that sometimes occur in the summer along Florida coast interact with anything tropical that just might be trying to form. I digress
Later
Hurric


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: LLC
      #8367 - Thu Jul 24 2003 07:58 PM

I was at the beach today and water temp were mid to upper 50's mind numbing cold gave me ice cream headache and my whole body was numb and skin red the air temp was 60 with fog???
Very Interesting phenomina


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: LLC
      #8368 - Thu Jul 24 2003 08:09 PM

The long period in June and parts of July where winds have been SW to NE have enabled cold water from below to mix up to the surface. Here on the west coast of Florida (Pinellas) you can hardly go to the beach because of red tide, and have had above normal water temps thanks to the SW winds. Heres an article on the upwelling...

http://www.naplesnews.com/03/07/florida/d946301a.htm


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: LLC
      #8370 - Thu Jul 24 2003 09:59 PM

Just an interesting tidbit from the NWS Melbourne evening discussion:
COULD SEE A BLOW
UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE H5 (MID
LEVEL) VORT ROTATES N ALONG THE FL ATLC COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PART
OF THE REMNANTS OF T.D. #6 AND CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY. ITS
CURRENT LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH 00Z GFS FORECAST.

Shows up quite well on radar and is drifting very slowly to the north.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Re: LLC
      #8371 - Thu Jul 24 2003 10:09 PM

Joe ,Here is another news story on the coldwater upwelling.
One thing I know is that if the water is cold on the beach and the surface it's very likely to be much colder in deeper water.

The affect of this on seasonal weather patterns and tropical systems seems to be an area that could use more study.

It seems to me that most ot the afternoon Thunderstorms have stayed further inland this year and away from the beaches.
I have relatives from up north visiting this week and think they will be surprised when they put their toes in the water.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/volusia/orl-aseccoolwater24072403jul24,0,1806426.story?coll=orl-news-headlines



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: LLC
      #8372 - Thu Jul 24 2003 10:50 PM

I'am not sure how much this would affect tropical systems given its not very great in width, but who knows? The nocturnal activity seems to have trouble moving ashore at night when winds are from SE. Also afternoon storms show some weakening as they move offshore, then re-intensify over the gulf stream. An intresting subjuct to say the least.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbi
Unregistered




will heat of the day enhance this feature offshore...
      #8373 - Fri Jul 25 2003 07:50 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

amazing how it is really exactly where ukmet said it would even tho it didnt develop ... and is still over water..

so as the sun heats things up will this expand or just drift along?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: will heat of the day enhance this feature offshore...
      #8374 - Fri Jul 25 2003 08:22 AM

Tough to say. The southern periphery of the wave moved into Central America and out into the Eastern Pacific. It's probably going to spur a TS out that way. As for the MLC off of Daytona, you have to think it's got a couple of days over the Gulf Stream. If I was in SC or NC, I'd be watching it over the weekend to see if a heat buildup can get anything going. There's no wave in the area to set it off so it's going to have to work its own magic if it wants to get anything going.

Also of interest to Florida is the upper low heading west toward the state. IR & WV show a classlic "low" look, and there is some convection. I don't usually jump on ULL's working their way to the surface, but it will bring a tropical airmass to FL in the Sunday-Tuesday period.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: will heat of the day enhance this feature offshore...
      #8375 - Fri Jul 25 2003 08:39 AM

Hey Steve, what do you think the chances are of that low w of fla. forming into something?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: will heat of the day enhance this feature offshore...
      #8376 - Fri Jul 25 2003 09:21 AM

Here is the radar in the Tampa Bay area. Not much going on right now but should get some thunder boomer that could be severe in the heating of the day. Congrats Bobbi you nailed the split. The spin headed toward the Florida East coast looked nice yesterday. Have not had the chance to look at any models or sat. images this AM. Does the spin still look as good today? The CV should start to crank up in the next week or two. The GFS has been fairly consistant with a very impressive wave train in that period of time. Question is, how many will survive the long trip? http://weather.mgnetwork.com/cgi-bin/weatherIMD3/weather.cgi?user=TBO&alt=MGIMD_local_doppler_loop&hwvLOCALMENUSTATUS=&dpp=1&radar_icao=ktbw&hwvradartype=base&place=tampa&state=fl&zipcode=33601&country=us&county=12057&zone=flz051

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 6 forms east of the Caribbean
      #8377 - Fri Jul 25 2003 09:42 AM

Here is the BOUY data site for those of you watching the low formerly know as TD6 as it passes the St Augustine area.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41012


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
caneman
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 6 forms east of the Caribbean
      #8378 - Fri Jul 25 2003 09:56 AM

000
WONT41 KNHC 251307
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9:15 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.. RADAR AND BUOY DATA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE THAT
SPAWNED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 6 forms east of the Caribbean
      #8380 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:10 AM

Thanks Cyclone_head and Caneman for the info. Will have to continue to monitor that area in case it starts to really take off. Pressures are still high at the buoy. Let's see what the day brings.These are the type of systems that you need to watch, they have a tendency to sneak up and bite you in the be-hind!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Good Morning Florida!
      #8382 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:41 AM

Wow! That spun up out of nowhere overnight. Convection is flaring up nicely,so this may have a chance to make it to storm strength before going into GA,SC. This season apparently has no intention of letting us take a break!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bill
Unregistered




Re:97/HF
      #8383 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:42 AM

No, it won't bring the SAME result, but, maybe the season will be tempered a bit.

I watched on TV a briefing by Max Mayfield here yesterday, he compared the season with 1933 (busiest ever) and '97 (a really poor one) based on number of storms so far. Ps in 33 three storms hot Fl that yr...in 97, Danny brushed us--I still remember it sitting and spinning and INTENSIFYING over Mobile Bay!

His points: '33 was a strong la Nina yr, '97 was a strong el Nino---this yr, we are neutral (La NIna has faded out) , so , our results should be in between.

I agree.

Further---note an upswing in CenPac, looks like MJO positive phase wil be here soon, another upswing end of next week seesm likely.

RE: Low off St. Aug--whoever it was likened the situation to Jerry (on he last thread), gets a gold star! And was no wishcaster, too!

IHS,

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 6 forms east of the Caribbean
      #8392 - Fri Jul 25 2003 01:54 PM

Since 10 A.M. the buoy readings show a slight drop in pressure and an increase in windspeed of around 8 or 9 knots....Things seem to be brewing along as everyone has
forcasted.

Cyclone_head......


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 12 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 26764

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center