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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8379 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:04 AM

The remnants of Tropical Depression 6, which fell apart nearing the Caribbean, have made its way up close to offshore of St. Augustine, and it seems to be spinning up again. Rapid Strengthening probably won't occur, and showers primarily will be felt in Georgia and South Carolina, none the less we are watching it. Nothing else is occuring noteworthy at the moment in the tropics, and we may be seeing a brief quiet period.



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


- [john@flhurricane.com]


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8381 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:37 AM

Don't know if it will make Erika, but will be fun to watch. Nice wave coming off Africa too. Our lull may be short lived....we've been teased by a couple. Need something to really track! Cheers!!

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Bill
Unregistered




HF Comments/97/other stuff...from the last thread....
      #8384 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:46 AM

No, it won't bring the SAME result, but, maybe the season will be tempered a bit.

I watched on TV a briefing by Max Mayfield here yesterday, he compared the season with 1933 (busiest ever) and '97 (a really poor one) based on number of storms so far. Ps in 33 three storms hot Fl that yr...in 97, Danny brushed us--I still remember it sitting and spinning and INTENSIFYING over Mobile Bay!

His points: '33 was a strong la Nina yr, '97 was a strong el Nino---this yr, we are neutral (La NIna has faded out) , so , our results should be in between.

I agree.

Further---note an upswing in CenPac, looks like MJO positive phase wil be here soon, another upswing end of next week seesm likely.

RE: Low off St. Aug--whoever it was likened the situation to Jerry (on the last thread), gets a gold star! And was no wishcaster, too!

IHS,



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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
11:30 TWO
      #8385 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:50 AM

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA...AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT IS PREPARING TO QUICKLY DISPATCH A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Quick response!


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: HF Comments/97/other stuff...from the last thread....
      #8386 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:51 AM

Here's a quick link to the Jacksonville Long Range loop. I haven't checked out the windspeeds yet, but it certainly looks like a mini tropical storm. Looks like a nasty rainband is on the West Side for you Jacksonvillonians.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kjax.shtml

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jerry
      #8387 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:52 AM

Thanks Bill! That was me. I only get one right a year, so I can quit posting now

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8388 - Fri Jul 25 2003 12:00 PM

Well it certainly looks like it from satellite and radar imagery. This has become well organised very quickly, and has the potential to become Erika today. However, as it is so close to land dont expect anything too explosive to develop. Wind and rain will likely occur over much of the coast from Saint Augusting right up towards Cape Fear, NC, as this one heads north.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8389 - Fri Jul 25 2003 12:20 PM

It's a tough call as to what happens as far as intensification. Radar indications are that a surface low is forming, but I haven't checked the buoy or wind data. Look for the possibility of a stall or crawl once up toward the GA/SC coast. That's climatology up that way for weak systems in weak steering currents. As the trof continues to lift out, I don't see this going anywhere but slowly north if it doesn't accelerate by this evening (which is doubtful). Under that scenario, look out for massive rainfall in GA/SC up to 150 miles inland.

No call on eventual landfall with this one. While it appears that Charleston, SC is a prime spot, sometimes these systems will just hug the coast and ride the Gulf Stream. The waters there are in the mid-80's so certainly Cat-1 in 36 hours is not out of the question if the center works its way down to the surface. There will be ample outflow in the area.

Good call by Bastardi from early last week that this area would be the spot to look for in the B-North Pattern.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8390 - Fri Jul 25 2003 01:07 PM

Just a brief post -
NRL have labelled this system as 07L Noname, not as an INVEST. I can only assume therefore that this is Tropical Depression Seven, and NHC will follow with a full advisory shortly...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Navy NRL
      #8391 - Fri Jul 25 2003 01:34 PM

Looks like the Navy NRL site links have expired.

Interesting that they are naming this 07No Name, as this is an extension of the remnants of TD #6. I would have thought that they would just pick up 6 again. Guess not.


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8393 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:00 PM

Since 10 A.M. the buoy readings show a slight drop in pressure and an increase in windspeed of around 8 or 9 knots....Things seem to be brewing along as everyone has
forcasted.
Cyclone_head...

P.S. I saw that "wishcast" reference Bill....Will I ever live that one down??


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8394 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:04 PM

We have TD 7.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8395 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:30 PM

Here is Savannah's bouy...to look at the readings there
it would seem "a nice day in paradise"

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41008


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8396 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:42 PM

good, good. i live inland right along the forecast path in western south carolina, and this morning got assigned to do weekend overtime.. maybe this will give me a surprise rainout. doesn't have to be erika, just don't make me have to get up at 6:30 on saturday.
may or may not get to t.s. strength. waters aren't particularly warm (as noted by several people dealing with upwelling) along the immediate coast.. at support level if anything but not much above. all it needs to do is make it rain all day tomorrow.. that i could appreciate. not often that i get the effects of a tropical system here, should be interesting.
HF 1843z25july


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8397 - Fri Jul 25 2003 03:50 PM

Have a nice week everybody...will be in Key West all next
week...I certainly hope no need for mentioning those Lat/Lon
coordinates for at least a week.

Cyclone_head



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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8398 - Fri Jul 25 2003 04:55 PM

Yawn.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8399 - Fri Jul 25 2003 05:41 PM

well.. either it's going to make a quick little sprint in strength right before landfall overnight as the nearby sea breeze stops drawing from it's inflow.. or it's going to come ashore near camden/liberty counties in ga as a 25kt depression. seabreeze trough has drifted well inland and is now about to pour here. better go tend to the critters.
HF 2144z25july


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8400 - Fri Jul 25 2003 06:20 PM

Even on the West Central Coast of Florida we seen our share of rain today. Around 2:30 we had hortizonal rain and 1/4 inch hail. The warning said that some areas could experience 60 mph winds. I had some wind here with the heaviest rain but that's about it. On and off thunder all day. Looks like we have a Florida sandwich in the making, would you like that with or without a spin?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Alex
Unregistered




the future(I'll try not to wishcast)
      #8401 - Fri Jul 25 2003 07:26 PM

TD7 looks as if it will remain a weak depression and go into South Carolina tonight, giving them a decent amount of rain.

As for the rest of the Atlantic-The basin is fairly quiet right now, with no systems that threaten development in the immediate future(24-48 hours) Looking farther down the road, there is a decent wave coming off Africa with what seems to be a spin to it, but its not worth being concerned about until it is well over water


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: the future(I'll try not to wishcast)
      #8402 - Fri Jul 25 2003 09:29 PM

All does look tame tonight. As for # 7, well it depends on if you think it is really # 6? If you think it is still # 6 then my orginal landfall of N Tx / La is dealing with some major crow... but if it is # 7 I am doing well because I have not said anything except noting the interesting spin on the Miami radar last evening

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8403 - Fri Jul 25 2003 10:10 PM

6/7 looks best on radar. Within the hour, it's been stationary or maybe drifting slightly north. Winds are low offshore, and pressures are high. The IR presentation has been poor, but the last few frames hint at a flareup maybe on the north side of the center???

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8404 - Fri Jul 25 2003 10:30 PM

Just FYI a cool link I think, some may have it, some not.

www.dunedinsystems.com/weather.htm

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8405 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:39 PM

Just of interest note where NRL's track for NONAME began from

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8406 - Sat Jul 26 2003 12:24 AM

said camden earlier, meant chatham. camden is just north of jacksonville... chatham is savannah. actually got some convection going once the seabreeze died out this evening, but too little too late. hopefully some of that will be intact and in the neighborhood around say.. 7am. not betting on it though, looks like tomorrow is friday again for me.
HF 0428z26july


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
woo hoo!
      #8407 - Sat Jul 26 2003 07:48 AM

well, it was for other reasons, but no work today. t.d. 7 inland near vidalia, ga, done deal. elsewhere in the basin no suspect waves, just a few flareups related to ULLs in the subtropics.. and the remnants of danny near 33/40 sliding southward and generating a little convection. dang thing has been 'dead' for nearly a week and is still discernable.
HF 1151z26july


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8408 - Sat Jul 26 2003 08:11 AM

Thanks Coop for the link, I did not have that one. The radars are great. Even my husband had a good time surfing the site!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: woo hoo!
      #8409 - Sat Jul 26 2003 08:15 AM

Yeah pretty quiet. Convection blossomed up in the ULL north of Puerto Rico, but they rarely get down to the surface. GFS seems to like the wave coming off the African coast and develops it nicely at about 40W. Has good look on 6z sat image but we'll see. Otherwise quiet. Cheers!!

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8412 - Sat Jul 26 2003 10:02 AM

Good to hear that & no problem

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8413 - Sat Jul 26 2003 11:19 AM

Around 70/24 look interesting. All I said was interesting

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8414 - Sat Jul 26 2003 11:44 AM

Interesting is good...very interesting may be a stretch. ETA actually closes off a low near the Bahamas at 36 hours. Convection firing now. Cheers!!

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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8415 - Sat Jul 26 2003 12:15 PM

I Guess there is a possible chance the UUL around 70w24n could make it to the surface. Hell anythings possible. Anyways the CV season should be starting shortly. Models are starting to jump. Can't wait....

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Here are some Bastardi comments today on the ULL
      #8416 - Sat Jul 26 2003 12:42 PM

>>The upper low north of Hispaniola is working its way to the surface and given the pattern, sustained thunderstorms through tomorrow may mean it has a chance to develop as it comes further west. Already the midday runs of models are wasting no time in backing the flow on the east coast and so we may be faced with a slow moving system near or just east of Florida early or mid part of next week. Again a tough call as to whether it comes up east or west or whatever, but with a deepening trof over the Mississippi valley it should mean any possible problems are east of 90 and probably between 70 and 80 west. Of course if the convection does not persist, then its much ado about nothing but outflow is start to show in the thunderstorms

and

>>Our closed low is rolling west and has a weak surface trof underneath. Thunderstorms are clustering, but we must wait 24 hours to see if that is something to be concerned with outside of extra Florida rain as it comes west. It is well worth noting that it may be in an area that is synoptically suited for development in the upcoming pattern in 4-7 days.

He deleted all his text from the week. He had a link to a great NOAA writeup on the recent "Land Cane" that formed over the eastern Great Lake states, but I can't seem to find it. I'm going to continue to dig, and when I do find it, I'll post it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8417 - Sat Jul 26 2003 02:07 PM

WOW! The ULL is starting to bloom out a little bit there isn't it? If you watch the GOES East infrared loop load up you can actually see how much the convection has grown in a short period of time. Might end up being a watcher after all.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8418 - Sat Jul 26 2003 02:45 PM

Don't give up on the BOC yet either!

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
From the Miami NWS Office
      #8419 - Sat Jul 26 2003 03:42 PM

This from today's weather discussion:

.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WX CONDITIONS COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH...MOVES
WESTWARD OVER S. FL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ETA EVEN DEVELOPS A SFC LOW ON
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS ACTUALLY NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...BUT FOR THE
MOMENT WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP AN OPEN TROUGH.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Possibility?????
      #8420 - Sat Jul 26 2003 06:19 PM

NHC mentions it is possible:
Showers and thunderstorms centered about 300 miles east of the central Bahamas are associated with an upper-level area of low pressure. This activity is expected to move westward over the next day or so and development...if any...is expected to be slow to occur.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: From the Miami NWS Office
      #8421 - Sat Jul 26 2003 06:22 PM

Has anyone noticed that TWC is not talking about the ULL at their tropical up-dates? Either that or I have just missed the times that they have. You would think with that large of a swirl heading for the states, they would at least explain what it is. Think that is odd. Then again, maybe I just missed it.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: From the Miami NWS Office
      #8422 - Sat Jul 26 2003 06:37 PM

They can be a little strange. If Lyons was on he may mention it ( have not noticed him this weekend ) but the regulars don't stray too much. Then all of the sudden... they will tell you of a newly formed system

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: From the Miami NWS Office
      #8423 - Sat Jul 26 2003 07:20 PM

Warren went off shift and Cheryl gave the 6:50 tropical up-date. She did mention it as an ULL. It appears to be holding its convection, even if it does not spin down, it gives us something right now to look at.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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steve h.
Unregistered




Re: From the Miami NWS Office
      #8424 - Sat Jul 26 2003 08:02 PM

Wave coming off Africa is impressive. Models still showing development. ULL east of Bahamas looking less impressive currently, but still need to be watched. Tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles looks pretty good, having built up convection during the day. Think HF mentioned a coupla days ago. Long shot, but even NOGAPS hinted development of this earlier. Stuff to watch. Cheers!!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Good looking wave west of africa
      #8425 - Sat Jul 26 2003 09:29 PM

There is a 1012 mb low at 17n just west of the cape verde islands.But it is void of convection as it consists of stratuscumulus clouds.That 17n position is almost the same as the low that eventually formed into Danny at that instance it came out at 15n.But I see at the low latituds plenty of convection south of the CV islands so let's see what happens with this wave.By the way are the models showing this wave at their latest runs because I saw NOGAPS not showing this feature at 12Z after having it in previous runs.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8426 - Sat Jul 26 2003 10:09 PM

I see the formation steve h. is speaking of on the 12Z AVN, CMC and UKMET. I don't see anything around 17N, even on the 18Z that is out... but you know that does not mean it will not happen. Maybe I am looking at bad data?? Maybe I am just tired

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8427 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:04 AM

ULL in the Bahamas looks intresting. Streamline analysis has this plotted above 800mb making it an mid/upper level circulation. One thing comes to mind, TD#7. TD#7 formed from mid level circulation. Area needs to be watched, but given models really not biting on anything at the surface my odds are low, but will be watched.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8428 - Sun Jul 27 2003 07:13 AM

The Sat. loop this early AM sure looks bursting with color. The ULL near the Bahamas had a nice burst of convection over night. Need to keep an eye on that area, convection has persisted there too long. Will be interesting to see what it does today. Looks like a few more potientals to the East.
What do you all think about the SAL that is in the area? Will it have a big affect on development near the CV this season? How long is this suppose to last?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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bobbi
Unregistered




send a loop or image of dust in atmosphere, please not at work
      #8429 - Sun Jul 27 2003 07:34 AM

and believe there is an awfully lot of it and imagine would inhibit almost any wave but thats debateable theory wise i know

watching ULL... and wave


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: send a loop or image of dust in atmosphere, please not at work
      #8430 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:26 AM

I'll be surprised if tropical model numbers don't come out today

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Kevin--unplugged
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Re: SAL image
      #8431 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:44 AM

Current image of SAL:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/wavetrkAsal.jpg

Starting to ease up a little in the Western Atlantic. There is still a quite a bit in the Eastern Atlantic...so we'll see what happens with that. Notice the ITCZ has become more active, probably because the SAL is weakening some.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: SAL image
      #8432 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:12 AM

Appears the Hunters are going in Monday(possibly) Cool sat shot by the way!

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Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 27 2003 11:14 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Signs of organization
      #8433 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:24 AM

Cloudiness and showers centered a couple hundred miles east of the central Bahamas are associated with an upper-level area of low pressure and a surface trough. Although showers have decreased somewhat over the past few hours...this system shows signs of organization and there is some potential for slow development over the next day or so. It is expected to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Monday...if necessary.


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HanKFranK
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ULL/future system
      #8434 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:39 AM

okay now, that looks like something today. ETA was on the ball yesterday, forecasting a surface disturbance with the upper system. all it really needs to do is keep the deep convection going and nature will do the rest. i suppose this will be 99L when one of the satelite agencies starts tracking it. unlike that depression, anything that forms with this system will have plenty of water between it and the coastline. interesting week ahead.
east atlantic: up at 17N SSTs are too low to support anything. i'd look lower on the wave axis for trouble, where there is convection to feed it.
that danny low is just a weak swirl and a thunderstorm.. but one week later it's still trackable.
HF 1543z27july


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Storm Cooper
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8435 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:08 PM

99L Invest, NRL. Still waiting for some models!

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Steve
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8436 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:28 PM

I agree HankFrank. There even appears to be some outflow to the SW of the system now. That would mean the ULL is backing away (W or SW) which usually means a ridge will be building over top of the system. Guess it'll be another 24-36 hours until some of the feedback mechanisms can begin to work their magic. I'm thinking this energy is more likely to develop than not. As for TD #6/#7, I blew the 4th Quarter. Even though I look at OTIS (sst anomalies) every day, I missed how cold the close in water was. My solution was that the center would be more likely to pull back 20-40 miles to the Gulf Stream and head a little further north (to the SC Coast) than it did (GA coast). Because of those cold waters, the surface support was not there despite the overall better organization near landfall. Obviously this has major implications for the East Coast in what promises to continue to be an active US landfalling season. Should the water near the east coast stay as cool as it is, storms will not be strengthening at landfall. I'm 100% against things like dyno-gel, but if any Cat-3/4/5 EC threat can be blunted at landfall because of naturally occurring colder waters, then potential wind damage could be minimized. I suppose it's the proverbial double-edge sword though when considering that most people die in flooding. FWIW, the Gulf of Mexico is overall relatively warmer than it has been since Bill & Claudette. Today, it looks like the GOM is about a -.75 degree departure from average (essentially a return to neutral SST conditions). I know everyone's got this link bookmarked, but just in case you haven't checked it in a while, here it is:
SSTA's
--------------------------------------------------------
JB had some interesting comments on the Bahamian system today. He said he'd have an update later. He noted the increase in size and organization overall. He thinks the push for a LLC should be underway assuming the convection continues. He said one of the keys is a tropical wave that may be entrained (ala Bill) tonight and tomorrow, and 'after an initial distortion of the front running system', the added heat can work itself into the system. He further suggests that the height falls in the MA may not be great enough to carry the system up and out mid-week. He anticipates the B-North pattern next weekend with the trof around 90W. That implies another threat for the SE or EC down the road if it goes.

Steve

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Mary K.
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8437 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:30 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
This is a good picture of the close up of the disturbed weather off of the Bahamas. It looks like it is banding and getting an inflow and rudiments of outflow unless I am seeing doggies in the clouds again.

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Steve
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8438 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:59 PM

Hey Mary K.,

Watching aminated zoom, is that a center that pops up on the last frame or just a hole in the convection? It would be at 25.79N 72.32W on the 16:15UT. It if were the 'true' center, it's moving WNW. Too early.

There are couple of other swirls in there too I think.

Steve

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Mary K.
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8439 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:04 PM

I saw that too. I just figured it was angle that it was shot at but we can keep looking at the updates and I guess time will tell. This could form pretty fast, but run out of real estate before it becomes a category.

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Steve
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8440 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:35 PM

Looking at the next couple of shots, it was definitely a spin. It looks like the overall center is broader, but that little spin still shows up within the broader circulation. If the broader circulation is the center, it would appear to be moving between W and WNW (the embedded circulation is more WNW). Overall, I'd say the system is continuing to look better organized despite the generally high pressure in the area (which could even become a positive factor in development).

Developing situation?

Steve

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troy2
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sst temps
      #8441 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:38 PM

the water temp at the cape canaveral 20 mile bouy (41009) is at 81.o not realy that cold. True the water is colder right along the coast due to the upwelling caused by the slight ofshores winds in the overnight and early an hours the water temps at the beaches are on their way up. I think someone said the water felt like 50 something but I think that may be strecthing it ( no offense), I am in the water everday surfing, i think it felt more like lower- mid 70's, but then again this is coming from a guy who hates to wear his wetsuit even in the coldest of January days

so even if the water is still cooler at the beaches the water just 20 miles out is still avg warmth to sustain storm strength (of course the water temps at the 120 mile bouy 41010 are at 85 degress which is a bit warmer) but like steve discussed, the super warm temps that help storms pop right before landfall isnt there as of right now


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MaryK.
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8442 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:40 PM

I just took another look and did the loops. That is definitely a circulation center even if it is not the primary one. You know that is the Bermuda Triangle area where planes go down and all sorts of strange things occur. So it could be a rapidly forming storm that the models can not keep up with. As for high pressures, we have seen storms around Florida before with the pressures apparently too high but the storms happened anyway. So it is I guess a relativity problem that Einstein would have to address. It is definitely interesting.

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troy2
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8443 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:48 PM

comparing the the lops to 24 hours ago, the convection has grown and held together. Not sure if this is a sign of the low reaching the surface or not ( is it anyone?... Bueller, Bueller?)

kind of reminds me or Erin, similar place and time of year, (not exact but close) but Erin was a wave not an ULL...



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Mary K.
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8444 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:59 PM

I remember Erin, she was an averag Tropical Storm when she got here near mouse ears land. She did not do any storm or rain damage but was good for a day off from work.!

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troy2
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8445 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:06 PM

out here on the beach we were w/o power for a few days,
pushed aboout a 6 inch layer of sand on to the cocoa beach pier parking lot. totally removed a traffic light on A1A in cocoa beach
and in cocoa i think every oak tree along the river road lost a few large limbs

but what i remember the most was how damn hot it was the next day. every ounce of moisture was sucked up into her as she reintensified in the gulf. he did get a cool feeder band the next day but that only made it hot AND steamy...:)


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k___g
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Re: ULL/future system
      #8446 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:10 PM

The system east of the Bahamas looks quite interesting.....seems to be developing a circulation.......time will tell what happens.......we don't need more rain here in central Florida.......

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Steve
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99L Invest links...
      #8447 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:12 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Steve

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Robert
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Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8448 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:21 PM

Yeah Troy i said it and not lying Westpalm had 56 degree temps reportedly. And i no it was at least in the low 60's if not upper 50's when i was surfing on wensday i had a full body westsuit on and froze my ass off i had to get out after an hour it was to cold for me.

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Joe
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Re: Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8449 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:34 PM

Heres a great hurricane model tracking program, for free! Follow the directions on the page. Same as WREL site but now your in control. Plots all hurricane models and you can even type them in yourself. Heres the link...
http://bellsouthpwp.net/w/x/wxpgmr/StormTrakker6BetaTesting.htm


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Steve
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Re: Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8450 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:44 PM

I've got the COC @ 26.08N 72.75W on the 17:45UTC frame. JB had a special update on and called it 'intriguing'. I detect he's leaning toward maybe a stall east of FL in a couple days?

Steve

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troy2
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Re: Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8451 - Sun Jul 27 2003 02:49 PM

robert
wow! crazy, that is pretty cold, especially for you guys down in WPB, i have surfed reef rd in the winter with no suit, water was nice and warm b/c of the proximity to the gulf stream.

you guys gettin any of this small swell we're gettin up here?



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Robert
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Re: Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8452 - Sun Jul 27 2003 03:25 PM

not really i am in stuart just north PB were gettin Ocaisional waisty's. Been going up to Saby and 192 and its been oca chest and nice. The water up north is a bit warmer but still as cold as most january days i think. I belive its warmer down here with the sun that wendsay it was patch rain overcast and no sun i swear it was winter.

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Mary K.
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In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8453 - Sun Jul 27 2003 06:15 PM

The last two frames of the loops on the NOAA page, looks like the spinning has stopped as it has begun to interact with that left over debris from TD#7. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

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Steve
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Re: In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8454 - Sun Jul 27 2003 06:42 PM

I agree. There are plenty of ingredients there - the surface trof, remnants from TD 6/7 and a wave riding up the back side of the ULL which almost has some curvature in its own right. The pattern is way too complex, but let's see if everything comes together to produce a FL-NC storm toward the end of the week.

Steve

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HanKFranK
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Re: In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8455 - Sun Jul 27 2003 07:34 PM

very chaotic cloud motions around 99L and the remnants of TD 7. whatever was supporting the convective burst with 99L is in transition.. don't know exactly what is driving the train anymore down there. i'd say development is halted and in check right now, the healthy look it had earlier is gone. perhaps it will return, perhaps not. TD 7 remnants were supposed to be in north carolina today, but this morning they turned around in NE ga and now are.. well, here. the mid level center is/was intact and has drifted to right around aiken county sc. NE upper winds around the ULL in the bahamas and a seabreeze have distorted it on satelite, so maybe the mid level center is gone now.. but it was drifting SE, back towards the coast. may be gone now, but it has made me entertain some strange ideas.
danny low is still out there. i'll keep mentioning it until it goes away.
itcz depressed west but elevated in latitude at its eastern leg on the atlantic.. and lots of convection with the monsoon trough. nothing imminent.. a wave will need to focus some convection to get the ball rolling.
steve, you found that link to the right up on the 'land cane'? be interested in reading it.
basin will probably be active this week.
HF 2336z27july


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Steve
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Re: In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8456 - Sun Jul 27 2003 08:20 PM

HF, I tried everything. It was a NOAA Research Division paper written by David Roth. I found links to some of his work, but Google didn't even recognize "land cane" at all. I was going to e-mail Bastardi at his private address, but I'm only going to be in my office on Tuesday (out of the next 8 or 9 days). If I can get something out from this e-mail address and Bastardi responds before I get back in town, I'll post it right off.

Steve

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Storm Cooper
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Re: In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8457 - Sun Jul 27 2003 08:51 PM

Just FYI, I tried all my resources and can't locate what you are looking for. I'll try at work in the morning and see what happens

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Mary K.
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I think the spin went South
      #8458 - Sun Jul 27 2003 09:19 PM

I was looking at the latest available loops on IR and it looks as though the spin drifted South towards Miami, and it also looks like the convection near Puerto Rico is getting a little more of a wave look to it. I am thinking that everything in the region is re-grouping and something really destablized our Central Florida air this afternoon! I would bet we had 5 inches in about 2 hours. It really poured and the thunderstorm stayed parked on top of us for about an hour or more.

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Re: Troy That was me with the 50's
      #8459 - Sun Jul 27 2003 09:31 PM

The temperature of the water near Palm Beach today ranged from 84-86. Not even in the winter does it rarely ever drop below 68-70, so it certainly isn't in the 50's in July. You can check the Lake Worth pier at this site:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=LKWF1

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Robert
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Re: In the last few frames the spinner has stopped
      #8460 - Sun Jul 27 2003 09:31 PM

The nice tight vorticy is gone but the broad one is still there. Wave from the south, some circulation from 6/7 dropping to south and the low circulation over georgia looks to be headed towards the coast. I Cant wait to see what happens next. Im putting my wishcast on NC CAT 4 Baby. That would be great but it is still to early to tell what is going to happen to this future car wreck.

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57497479
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Re: I think the spin went South
      #8461 - Sun Jul 27 2003 09:40 PM

Geesh, away from the computer for a few hours and I come back home to an invest! There was quite a burst of convection this morning, guess it continued to hold together during the day. I take it from some of the post that I just read, that she is loosing some of her convection that she had earlier today. I see the flair up Mary around PR that you are refering to,that has been around for a while also.
I mentioned in my AM post about the SAL and what type of affect it might have on the CV this season. Here is a link for your dining pleasure! Will have to try and get caught up on todays happenings. So any ideas on what is going on with this thing??


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal-atl.html



--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sun Jul 27 2003 09:48 PM)


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Robert
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it certainly isn't in the 50's in July
      #8462 - Sun Jul 27 2003 09:59 PM

yes it was i froze. sun Sentinel Also Keep in mind the cold water is right along the beach The lake worth pier takes observation far enough out to get warmer readings and i checked the pier and it does not have a reading below 78. When i was surfing i could paddle in and out of the thermocline wich was about a 50 feet beyond the breaking waves.

Edited by Robert (Sun Jul 27 2003 10:08 PM)


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Joe
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Re: it certainly isn't in the 50's in July
      #8463 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:12 PM

Well upper low continues to spin between Cuba and Bahamas. Nothing well organized in the area at the time. Convection looks to be firing along and near the surface trough. Nothing developing quick here, but will continue to watch.

The area near 70w and south of 20n in northeastern Caribbean is a tropical wave although shear is quite strong, thanks to the upper low to the west, no development here.


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Joe
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Re: it certainly isn't in the 50's in July
      #8464 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:23 PM

Robert is correct water temperatures were in the 60s! This was thanks to winds from the SW to NE over the east coast for extended time in June and early parts of July. Currently thanks to E and SE winds water temperatures are warming up. Although areas from about the Cape north are in the 70s, including a 69 at daytona beach which had temps at near 60 in late June and July. This upwelling was one of the strongest I've seen. But water temps will slowly rise.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: I think the spin went South
      #8465 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:25 PM

As far as the waves/ull's... appears one player has handed off to another. As far as I am concerned w/ the SAL... have not put enough study into that. In other words I don't know alot about it so will have to look into before I can make a statement! You did get me looking

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Re: it certainly isn't in the 50's in July
      #8466 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:38 PM

I agree with the article in reference to the cold temps. as low as 66 at Daytona. This is not a problem. But, it was not 56 in Palm Beach which is 200 miles south of Daytona. The article was written by an Orlando newspaper in reference to the upwelling in the Daytona area. It mentioned temperatures as low as 66 to the low 70's in other places, no problem with that either. Then they throw in a line that they got some report from Palm Beach at 56. Who is the source? I have been going to the beach down here all summer and it hasn't dropped below 80 and the Lake Worth Pier hasn't either. Is it possible that some place down here dropped lower than 80, say like 70 or so, yes, but it wasn't 56.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve
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Re: it certainly isn't in the 50's in July
      #8467 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:08 PM

Then again, sometimes the 'coldness' of water is relative. For instance, if you swim in a Florida "warm springs" (e.g. Ichatucknee - which is a MUST VISIT FL State Park), the temperature is a constant 72 degrees. It's bone chilling, but it's a warm spring. Most of the cold springs run about 68 degrees and are no doubt bone chilling as well. I once kayaked on the Nantahala River in NC. The water was in the upper 30's. It was bone chilling too. REALLY.

So if the beach water seems cold, it probably is - especially compared to what you might be used to and the outside air temperature.

Here are some great, off the beaten path SST links:

http://www.meteorologie.eu.org/safo/gb_html_sst/atlantic/img_atl_sst_mosaics.html

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/namer_sst_oper0.gif

http://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Steve

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57497479
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Re: I think the spin went South
      #8468 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:05 AM

I also don't know much about the SAL either. However I do know that there is a few people who believes in it.Seems like it may have played a role in the development of TD#6 when it was out in the Eastern Atlantic. Will be something to at least take into consideration. Let's see what happens with the rest of the CV as the wave trains starts heading across.

Have to return to work today after being off for 2 weeks .
Will try to read all post at work, but can't really post from there, although sometimes it is very tempting! Everbody have a HAPPY MONDAY!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
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Somthing is holding the Convection together
      #8469 - Mon Jul 28 2003 07:26 AM

The first visible loop this morning shows an impressive cloud cluster that seems to be in the process of building. There are several bursts of convection apparent. This could be still a nice surprise for someone who likes storms.

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Steve H.
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Re: Somthing is holding the Convection together
      #8470 - Mon Jul 28 2003 08:00 AM

It could be Mary. Seems like conditions seem favorable this morning, however for some reason this area has given tropical systems a hard time developing in the past. Don't know why, just does. But the first visibles show a burst of convection with light winds overhead. Have a feeling that areas from Daytona northward should watch this one. This position is generally too far north to affect my area (palm bay). It might not make it to the coast anyhow before getting pulled up and out to the north. BTW, was at the beach at Sabatian inlet and the water temp was up to 78 from 71 a few days ago. Cheers!!

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garyb
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TEST ON 99L
      #8471 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:42 AM

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992003) ON 20030728 1200 UTC


...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

030728 1200 030729 0000 030729 1200 030730 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 27.0N 75.4W 28.1N 76.7W 29.3N 77.7W 30.5N 78.4W

BAMM 27.0N 75.4W 27.9N 76.6W 29.0N 77.5W 30.5N 78.1W

A98E 27.0N 75.4W 27.8N 76.4W 28.9N 77.1W 31.5N 76.1W

LBAR 27.0N 75.4W 28.0N 76.1W 29.4N 76.2W 30.8N 75.7W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 36KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 36KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

030730 1200 030731 1200 030801 1200 030802 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 31.8N 78.8W 34.3N 78.4W 38.6N 76.5W 44.4N 69.7W

BAMM 32.0N 78.5W 35.5N 78.1W 40.0N 76.2W 45.1N 74.4W

A98E 33.3N 75.1W 36.2N 72.7W 37.7N 67.8W 37.4N 61.3W

LBAR 32.6N 74.6W 36.3N 71.5W 39.5N 67.2W 40.5N 61.2W

SHIP 46KTS 59KTS 62KTS 56KTS

DSHP 46KTS 35KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 75.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 72.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Shout out to HankFrank and Frank P...
      #8472 - Mon Jul 28 2003 02:35 PM

HF,

Bastardi e-mailed me the link. Here it is:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/landcane.html

Frank P,

If you get home today and hear my voice on your answering machine, that was me. I couldn't remember if you said you were the first house past Edgewater or Broadwater. One was red-brick, the other was new-style beach. No one was home at either house. If I'm not on your answering machine, then another Frank P can wonder who the hell Steve was leaving him a message. I'da called you to give you a heads up, but I kinda just ended up over there.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Shout out to HankFrank and Frank P...
      #8473 - Mon Jul 28 2003 02:41 PM

Hey Steve, my house is the third house on the beach east of Edgewater Plaza.... its a two story house with a big fireplace in the front facing the GOM... 60% has white vinyl siding on it, the other is wood.. I'm remodeling it... the red brick is the first on the block, mine is the third going east... sorry I missed ya... ya got a open invite anytime you in the area... heck we get the big one you can ride it out with me... beach front view with a Cat 3... now that's what its all about.... hehe

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Shout out to HankFrank and Frank P...
      #8474 - Mon Jul 28 2003 02:50 PM

NEAT! I missed the eye feature, but just before it formed, I contacted a met friend of mine and told him there was a tropical storm over Ohio! GREAT for verification!

System e of Fl, looks like it is developing...NC storm?


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Alex
Unregistered




concerning the atlantic basin
      #8475 - Mon Jul 28 2003 03:12 PM

It does not appear that the surface trough/ULL east of Florida wants to do any rapid development. However, it could, and due to its proximity to land it is important to watch it carefully. Does anyone know when/if the recon is going to check on it?

Concerning the rest of the tropics-it appears quiet, the only thing of interest is a decent wave coming off africa, but that is just speculation until it proves that the waters off Africa will not be its grave.



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8476 - Mon Jul 28 2003 03:42 PM

ok ...it is just me? Or did y'all drink some fairy dust mixed into a KEG of Hurricane Beer?

I'm not interested and didn't know this message board was a relay for traffic directions... has your email stopped?? you can send private messages ya know on this board? But, gee you should all know that shouldn't you as yu are regulars.. have you heard of Lycos or Mapquest.. how bout AAA .. maybe perhaps you should go out and buy a big monkey like one of those blow up Gorillas and put it on your house which is I think the 3rd in Edgewater somewhere subdivsion in Edison or Edgemeyer New Jersey or Edmonds Oklahoma .. does anyone really care??? I know I don't ...

I know its a little slow but if you all want to send messages on this board be real specific.. tell us exactly what it is you want to know and I mean do it quickly without little games cause I go to this board and imagine others do to find out if there is any tropical weather.

Actually I go to tropicalupdate.com more often cause it seems there is always info faster there than anywhere but all of you Eds and Franks have a great board here that is usually full of easy links and do appreciate it.
really who needs edgewater when you have key west

go directly to the dock.. do not pass go..
spend $20 on junk jewelry and have some conch fritters.. you just have to to know you are in key west.. skip the fritters and get ice cream if you want..key lime of course

on and back on flemming the library has the best weather books..

so.....................now that we have gotten past the travelogue and home improvement lecture

and unless Rob Reiner is here holding Ed hostage.. can we please please get back to tropical weather???

please..

or i will have to do to this board what i did to my last Something About Mary video

love you all
if you want me to stay
cut it out..and you know exactly what i mean
cause frankly scarlett i no longer give a.....

lois

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 09 2003 09:46 PM)


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Cajun
Unregistered




Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8477 - Mon Jul 28 2003 03:58 PM

Steve and Frank P. are two of the best posters on this board. They have a right to say anything they want IMO.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 09 2003 09:49 PM)


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also in miami
Unregistered




Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8478 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:01 PM

Wow--was that all in response to those 2 little messages from Steve and Frank P.? If so, then I hope it's sarcasm...if not, then frankly my dear...well, never mind.

I think the trough off Fla looks worse now than this a.m., but maybe it will pick up when the ULL over Cuba moves farther away? Doesn't seem worth sending a plane into right now.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8479 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:22 PM

Yeah...tropics are quiet... and if you don't to read my messages don't.. they were intended for those who understand i suppose and am here to talk about weather

I would suggest that if you are visiting someone in person you take their cellphone number and address and not hope a person goes on and checks their message board..

Im not the one who started games around here.. and I have no interest in finishing them..

I just want to talk about tropical weather ... or maybe I don't. But when there is something to talk about I'll get back to you..

And, just because someone is a good poster or bad does not mean there is more to things going on than whats happening in the bahamas.

Wait another day and see what happens.. right now don't see it but things do tend to pop fast in the bahamas sometimes and ULLs are tricky.

Other boards are discussing the ITCZ.. may ask if people here think that it is falling into shape or are disappointed with it?

Seems low to me but suppose its beginning to fire.

Just looks real dry right now.. and btw.. I am not a sarcastic person.. Key West is beautiful.. the hurricane grotto IS a must see for anyone who loves tropical weather and for those who can afford the bed and breakfasts on Truman are beautiful

happy vacation days and sorry its so boring around the tropics.. imagine climo will solve that problem faster than the other games people play

someone email me when its safe to come back to the board
bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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met
Unregistered




Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8480 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:41 PM

stong disturbance about to come off africa.

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8481 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:43 PM

Hmm..has anyone noticed that the remnants of Danny are still spinning and maybe spinning up out there!

And TD 7 remnants....moving SSW along SC/Ga coast???

IHS,

Bill

El Rancho--been there--great place!


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8482 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:45 PM

LOL---I was thinking of the restuarant, El Rancho!

Back to weather...

IHS,

Bill


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8483 - Mon Jul 28 2003 04:51 PM

i want to apologize to the board for discussing, briefly, a swell with robert yesterday. This swell was not entirely tropical in origin. For that I apologize



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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8484 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:01 PM

I love it when things get fired up makes life interesting ,that area about 30N 64W I saw that to.I question that myself.Danny? or a ULL? Looks wet for a ULL I think.It appears to be moving WSW.

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: travelogues and home improvement directions
      #8485 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:06 PM

Whats with all these apologies and all.The season is quiet right now.Personally It does not bother me in the slightist way .You want to rant go ahead,talk go ahead it is slow right now.

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also from miami
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8486 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:07 PM

Please no one email here...let her think the boards will never be safe again.

OK, I'm getting carried away.


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also in Miami
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8487 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:08 PM

I meant no one email "her," not "here"

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8488 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:13 PM

yeah I wondered what happened to Danny. Area in the Bahamas looks sick right now, but may get energized tonight or tomorrow from the improving conditions? Or the remnants of ole #7. Wave off Africa is probably the most impressive yet and the models have picked it up crossing the pond and near the Lesser Antilles in 120 hours or so. Actually that was kinda funny Lois. No offense anybody>>>>LOL Cheers!!

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8489 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:16 PM

That area in question seems to of died off some since 12 noon more of a SW direction also.Anyone with any ideas about it ?

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8490 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:20 PM

Thier seem to a wave if I remember at about 10-12N about 20-30W that look like a possibility down the road if she joggs N some.The one off the e coast seems to of moved back up top.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8491 - Mon Jul 28 2003 05:38 PM

LMAO bobbi. Btw, when I'm divorced and my kids are long gone out the house, I'm driving to Miami to torment you since you provided such excellent directions (or maybe they were purposely confusing ). And it's going to be winter time! Muhahahahahaha Btw, hope you like the SST maps that came out of the cold water discussion.
-------------------------------------------------
Pattern of the SE Coast is still way too confused to breed any tropical children. If you want the tropics, you're going to have to wait until later in the week for that shot - probably no earlier than late Wed. if at all. Anyone hyping what's out there now is way ahead of themselves IMHO. The whole pattern off the GA/SC coast is going to have to reverse itself if something is going to pop. Ridging is expected in that general area later this week > 60 hours. So the best chance for anyone in the USA (we can still mention the country right ) to see any _organized_ tropical weather will be SC/NC maybe Friday or Saturday. Of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

/dennis miller

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8492 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:03 PM

You never did say ULL or a low? the system at 30N 63W.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Remnants of Danny
      #8493 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:18 PM

Remnants of Danny located here:
trough...remnants of Danny...is along 31n45w - 24n47w

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8494 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:45 PM

whoa man. lois/bobbi was venting this morning.. seemed excessive for an off topic downtime talk rebuttal. maybe even out of character. but anyway, lois, you're passionate about this stuff.. no reason to leave the board unless you want to.
now, the all-important basin, as i'm trying to understand it:
1) near the bahamas/se coast. low level convergence, check. abundant moisture, check. shear... hmmm, low to moderate but not enhancing surface organization.. no check. thats basically what there is to work with. nothing much remains of TD 7 even at the mid levels, my eye tracked its vorticity ENE.. out of the picture(vorticity is weather voodoo to me, don't completely understand the intermediate stuff). so it's just that SFC trough...at low levels if i had to pick a nexus point for a system to develop i'd tag it 50 miles NE of abaco. nothing imminent but this system retains its potential. maybe there will be some kind of baroclinic effect as the low amplitude trough digs in over the east.
2) danny boy. NHC not mentioning it, but convection is now scattered and frequent near the old center. i'll go out on a limb now and say that i expect this system to regenerate.. since i do. don't know in what shape or fashion or exact timetable, but think danny will be back by the weekend.
3) SE atlantic. ITCZ is cooking.. no real amplitude to any system moving along it.. maybe a little near the 30-35w wave. not expecting anything out of this right now. something will have to deform the monsoon trough and create a kink in it to get it started, as waves are still coming off africa and losing all their convection. in another 2 weeks SSTs should be up to where they will stay together... quite there not indefinite.
aite, getting deeper into the season, rants getting longer.
steve, thanks for the link. and agree with you, the ichetucknee rocks (3 times down it). havent done the nantahala.. just the less popular ocoee (raft, not kayak). it was november and i was dumb enough to jump in during a break in the rapids.. so i know the cold you speak of. i'll just stick to trout fishing next time.
peace.
HF 2248z28july aiken county, sc


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8495 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:49 PM

thats QUIET there not indefinite.. not quite.

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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Re: tropics quiet... as we can tell from board
      #8496 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:51 PM

And you guys said it was quiet.

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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
HURRICANE derived from 'Hurican', the Carib god of evil...
      #8497 - Mon Jul 28 2003 06:58 PM

alternative spellings: foracan, foracane, furacana, furacane, furicane,furicano, haracana, harauncana, haraucane, haroucana, harrycain, hauracane, haurachana, herican, hericane, hericano, herocane, herricao, herycano, heuricane, hiracano, hirecano, hurac[s]n, huracano, hurican, hurleblast, hurlecan, hurlecano, hurlicano, hurrican, hurricano, hyrracano, urycan, hyrricano, jimmycane, oraucan, uracan, uracano"

From the Glossary of Meteorology

It should be noted that the name 'Hurican' was derived from the Maya 'Hurakan', one of their creator gods, who blew his breath across the Chaotic water and brought forth dry land and beer .



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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: HURRICANE derived from 'Hurican', the Carib god of evil... *DELETED*
      #8498 - Mon Jul 28 2003 08:34 PM

Post deleted by Frank P

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE derived from 'Hurican', the Carib god of evil...
      #8499 - Mon Jul 28 2003 08:43 PM

The wave coming off the African coast looks to be one of the more impressive ones this season. However, the problem with the NHC satellite imagery from that far east is that it is a single snapshot in a 6 hour timeframe. We'll have to see one or two more shots to see if this one holds together or not.

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Alex
Unregistered




East Atlantic sat pics
      #8500 - Mon Jul 28 2003 08:58 PM

Here is a link to a picture that last updated an hour ago

www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical

There is a graphic that shows favorable and unfavorable conditions. You can change the graphic to show the sat pic of the entire atlantic


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Alex
Unregistered




new sat pics
      #8501 - Mon Jul 28 2003 09:06 PM

The Hurricane Centers east Atlantic Sat pic has been updated. Could someone tell me if it looks like the wave is dying or staying ok

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: new sat pics
      #8502 - Mon Jul 28 2003 09:11 PM

I don't know clyde. Nice outflow jet to the SW of the storm. Do this though. Go to GOES, click African IR. Not only the one that just came off, but the one on the continent looks like it's spinning and then the one in the Indian Ocean (remnants of Koni or Imbudo?) looks like it's still a freaking hurricane.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Lets Settle Down
      #8503 - Mon Jul 28 2003 09:27 PM

Please keep the Main News Page focused on-topic. Drift a little if you wish - we all do that - but please, just a little.
Thanks for your help.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 09 2003 10:07 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: new sat pics
      #8504 - Mon Jul 28 2003 09:34 PM

HOLD YOUR FIRE! You miss a lot at work, damn! I checked some NASA pics and GEOS. I think it is really torn up. The ULL around Cuba is taking up everything to me. Overnight and the morning may be different as to who will do what. I saw some vis on 99L early today and it looked good then got ran over. It would be a heck of a comeback to me as of now, but look back at the systems we have had thus far

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Wave off of Africa and Latest Model Runs
      #8505 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:20 PM

Interesting. All global models are predicting the wave off of Africa to develop and eventually move toward the Carib. Islands. Has there been this much consensus in the global models this season?

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Wave off of Africa and Latest Model Runs
      #8506 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:35 PM

Just saw that w/ the AVN. This is the most impressive run I have seen. Going to run a few more and start again in the AM

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Lets Settle Down
      #8507 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:36 PM

Ed I totally agee with your post.In my referance early to the rant that was made at that point their was nothing I can personnally do to stop it.I just thought it was unthinkable that TROY felt he should apologize for having done nothing wrong.He used a personel experience to lend part to an arguement and gave a view of a part of his life .A smidgen of it no harm done.If a friendship by internet occurs no harm again.I say again I agree with you fully about the civility of the forum here.I am new here myself .When someone gets upset like what occur I have to laugh at their judgement to not become like the offender.I truly appreciate the traffic cop.KEVIN

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Wave off of Africa and Latest Model Runs
      #8508 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:38 PM

Fox 35...Orlando...they are already discussing this wave.

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Latest models runs on ENSO shows neutral all the way
      #8509 - Mon Jul 28 2003 10:59 PM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Hey Steve and Steve.H and the other members there was recently talk of el nino making a little comeback this hurricane season but this july update of the models will put this to rest as they are showing neutral conditions in the pacific.No el nino means active atlantic season.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Alex
Unregistered




forecast models
      #8510 - Mon Jul 28 2003 11:06 PM

Could someone kindly give me a link or 2 to some of the forcast models for the Atlantic basin. Thank you

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
William Gray and the Predictors--Coming Soon to a Theater Near You!
      #8511 - Mon Jul 28 2003 11:12 PM

OK, sadly it took me about 30 minutes to finally find a link to METEOSAT7,so I could see what you were talking about. Now more than ever I am convinced that the wave coming off of the African coast is one to watch. Not sure about the wave right behind it, but the Indian ocean storm is something to see Steve..going right into the Arabian Peninsula. Wonder how often that happens.

Since we have a few hours before this becomes a full fledged Cat 5 , here's a little something to chew on:

William Gray's prediction in June was for 14/8/3 this season. Although I know that he uses predominantly statistical predictors to come up with his forecast, you have to believe that he added one storm to his total based on Ana's brief and unexpected appearance in April.

So here's the question. Based on June and July's highly above normal activity (3 named storms, 2 hurricanes--statistical average is 1 named storm), do you believe he will up his numbers on Friday? And if so, by how much? Here's my guess: he will only up it by one named storm and one hurricane: 15/9/3.

Hmmm, I went with 15/8/4 at the beginning of the season, so that can't be right


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Latest models runs on ENSO shows neutral all the way
      #8512 - Mon Jul 28 2003 11:23 PM

Interesting flareup at 26N 76W . Have to see if it still prevails in the morning.I have a hard time reading WV on weak systems.IF has a nice shape.Anyone post a link about this system in the east atlantic.Thanks

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: William Gray and the Predictors--Coming Soon to a Theater Near You!
      #8513 - Mon Jul 28 2003 11:44 PM

I finally found a sight and saw the system exiting Africa.I can't see as much as you might ,but that wave at 10N and 38W has a curveture to it as of now.If it can fight off the ULL to the NW it stands a chance I hear.I sure like to see some barnbusters(I know be careful........).The power of the storm is amazing always has been.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Latest models runs on ENSO shows neutral all the way
      #8514 - Tue Jul 29 2003 12:14 AM

Not sure if I did anything...

Thanks for the update Cycloneye. Things certainly 'look' netural in the Pacific to me. Mixed signal year from the Pacific. I think I predicted weak La Nina in my hurricane season prediciton post. I think it has a lot to do with the SOI being negative for so long (up until July). In a way, it kept La Nina in check. It's cool off Peru, but...

Interestingly, the Gulf is back up to neutral all of the sudden. Puerto Rico currently has cooler waters to your east. This might help keep a stronger storm from developing on your doorstep while it holds.

http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Latest models runs on ENSO shows neutral all the way
      #8515 - Tue Jul 29 2003 07:44 AM

Oh well, the little CV system was just a mirage...You can never trust your eyes with what blows off from near the Sahara...

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
What happened to the CV wave?
      #8516 - Tue Jul 29 2003 08:55 AM

Well as expected the convection diminished big time as it hitted the water but still it has some banding and a good signature so let's see what happens with it as it moves west with hurdles to pass thru.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: What happened to the CV wave?
      #8517 - Tue Jul 29 2003 09:54 AM

The convection with the wave that exited the Coast of Africa last night is now limited to the ITCZ, but I expect some development during the next few days as this impulse moves westward. The ULL to its NW is also retrograding west, and with it the shear. We watch. Cheers!!

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Bill
Unregistered




Looka t 32/50
      #8518 - Tue Jul 29 2003 10:52 AM

..and you'll see Danny trying to make a comeback!

RE: IO system...interesting that JTWC is not carrying that system, they have carried systems before in that area.

Off Fl--fergit it--too much shear...wonder why the shear models work so poorly?

GIGO in models, it seems..

IHS,
Bill


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Alex
Unregistered




wave in E. Atlantic
      #8519 - Tue Jul 29 2003 01:44 PM

I wouldnt say this wave has given up the ghost just yet. Itseems to still have a good amount of convection and TWC said that it had a "broad mid-level circulation" I still give it a good shot at becoming something

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met
Unregistered




Re: wave in E. Atlantic
      #8520 - Tue Jul 29 2003 05:09 PM

twc....... not a wave- already a low pressure area , good chance it will develop.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
view of wave near Africa
      #8521 - Tue Jul 29 2003 05:17 PM

You might have to register for this site but it is well worth the time..

beautiful pic

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/latest.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: wave in E. Atlantic
      #8522 - Tue Jul 29 2003 05:19 PM

I'm still watching whole Bahama mess. been following pressures. Some station are now down around 29.97. I know not real low but in comparison to what they've been and just seems like something wants to pop. Getting same type of pressures in East Gulf too.

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: wave in E. Atlantic
      #8523 - Tue Jul 29 2003 05:29 PM

Indeed East Alt system looking good and they're back to saying Baham system may be slow development is possible.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LOW TO OCCUR.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: view of wave near Africa
      #8524 - Tue Jul 29 2003 06:41 PM

That is a pretty cool site... and free

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
Re: view of wave near Africa
      #8525 - Tue Jul 29 2003 09:26 PM

NRL has started a invest on 90L in the east Atlantic.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: view of wave near Africa
      #8526 - Tue Jul 29 2003 09:33 PM

And a good looking wave / low it is... looks classified as of now! Btw does anyone know StormTrakker fairly well? If you do send me a private message if possible... looking for some help

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: view of wave near Africa
      #8527 - Tue Jul 29 2003 09:41 PM

On again! I shouldn't have doubted myself this morning! I have a feeling that this will be one to watch, as the models tend to grab this one and develop it. Perhaps our 3-4 days off are over?

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: view of wave near Africa
      #8528 - Tue Jul 29 2003 10:04 PM

Invest looks pretty good. Could be the beginning of the long awaited CV season. Now let's see what its got. I'm not goin to name this one until it is fully born. We've had all kind of would be could be Erika's out there. I'm not getting my hopes up this time. I'm goin to play it safe!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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