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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8622 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:05 AM

The Atlantic Basin continues to sleep, but there are some potential candidates for a wake-up call in a few days. Upper lows and the east coast trough have really compressed the Atlantic ridge and as a result, the basin is not what one would normally expect for early August with small jet streaks and areas of shear. SSTs are still sub-par in the far eastern Atlantic above about 12N and the compression has shoved the ITCZ quite a bit to the south in the central north Atlantic. Interesting to note that in many previous years which had early activity, that early activity was often followed by a rather quiet August (the exception was 1995, but conditions were quite different in that year).

The Four Corners:
Extra-tropical low near 35.4N 45.1W at 12Z this Sunday morning is drifting to the east southeast and has developed convection east through southeast of the center. Not much chance for development,...but its there.

East coast trough (the former Invest 99L) continues to fire convection but shows no real organization. Has a possible weak mid-level center near 27.0N 74.4W at 12Z. Movement is to the west northwest at about 7 knots. Saturday at 18Z this feature was located at 26.0N 72.5W and movement at that time was to the northwest at 10 knots. Still a slim chance for some development in this area.

Active tropical wave with a focal point near 12.2N 67.5W at 12Z moving to the west at 12 knots. No evidence of circulation but excellent outflow to the east. System is about to encounter some southwesterly shear, however this may tend to nudge the system more to the northwest rather than diminish it. The wave became active yesterday in the eastern Caribbean Sea but lost most of its convection yesterday evening. It fired up again early this morning and may be a 'sleeper' in the four-corner scenario.

Invest 90L has maintained its low-level circulation center (barely, but its still there). At 12Z the center was located at 14.4N 50.6W and it was moving to the west northwest. System has been moving to the west northwest for the past 48 hours, although at a slower rate in the past 24 hours. The system is forecast to continue on this slow west northwest course for the remainder of the week. Convection is currently far removed to the north northwest, however, as long as the circulation center survives, development is certainly possible.

The Plus One:
A new active tropical wave has emerged from the west African coast - southeast of the Cape Verde Islands near 10N 20W. Currently embedded in the ITCZ, but appears to have a weak circulation center - still way too early to tell if this one has a chance at development - like all of the waves of the past few weeks, this one also has a rough road ahead of it.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by John C (Mon Aug 04 2003 06:45 PM)


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mp3reed
Verified CFHC User


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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8623 - Sun Aug 03 2003 11:17 AM

Very interesting.

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HanKFranK
User


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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8624 - Sun Aug 03 2003 11:20 AM

i can only reply by saying... yep.
ed covered everything that caught my eye and some things that didn't.
may be of some interest to note that NAO is going strongly negative in the coming week. more of something to look for late in the season, but it does favor a development zone from the western caribbean up to near florida. there is teleconnective support for this idea in that two westpac systems have formed east of the phillipines and are tracking NW.
HF 1523z03august


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bobbi
Unregistered




good site..orca
      #8625 - Sun Aug 03 2003 12:09 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8626 - Sun Aug 03 2003 12:55 PM

Yes the box is bound to get busy...meanwhile 14.6/51.1 is still kicking

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Lonny307
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Re: Models
      #8627 - Sun Aug 03 2003 01:10 PM

Is it my imagination or does the models really suck this year worse then other years. It seems everytime the models show some kind of development it fizzles...

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models
      #8628 - Sun Aug 03 2003 01:20 PM

I guess it would depend on if you are looking at track or intensity models. I think it is close to the same as past years, just alot of activity earily this season. I think as far as formation goes NOGAPS has done well.

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57497479
Weather Master


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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8629 - Sun Aug 03 2003 01:23 PM

Just took a look at the IR loop. Looks like I am seeing a very small amount of convection trying to wrap up into the circulation. Maybe my eyes are just seeing things. Does anyone else see this? If you don't thats ok, my glasses are broken and I can't see to good right now. LOL


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Hit the zoom button...

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8630 - Sun Aug 03 2003 01:28 PM

It is trying very hard.

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8631 - Sun Aug 03 2003 02:35 PM

The only thing I really see Toni is some clouds out front that might get trailed into the system.I guess it's a wait and see situation.I was wondering though about this lack of moisture out there.I mean that here along the MS GC region we are way up on our rainfall this year.The only area thus far this year able to support systems is the GOM.These systems would of been okay if it was not for the ULL's out there.It's part of the cycle right now maybe?The location of the moisture.If this system can hold and go S of the main Islands
maybe the ability to facilitate development will increase.I do not like the area N of the Islands thus far this year,might of as well call this the graveyard.


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Kevin
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8632 - Sun Aug 03 2003 02:47 PM

The soon-to-be tropical wave near 20W looks mildly interesting because it has a decent structure and some moderate convection. But look at the dry air to west...I dunno...


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8633 - Sun Aug 03 2003 03:02 PM

Strongly agree on both points. We have seen a bunch of ULL's this season and the Atlantic has been pretty dry. I guess we will just have to wait and see if this lets up or not. As far as the GOM,we have seen our share of rain for a while now. It can stop for a while any time it wants to. If things does not pick back up in the next couple of weeks with some type of pattern change as you said, then the Atlantic may not be as active as I thought, The wave train will depart from the coast only to mysteriously disappear in the Atlantic. Don't misunderstand, I am by no means writting off the CV season. I still think it has a very good chance to be active.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8634 - Sun Aug 03 2003 03:11 PM

Looks good right now Kevin, but all it has is dry air to look forward too. It's goin to choke, it will either die immediatly or we will watch another slow death. Unless we can get some moisture out there!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8635 - Sun Aug 03 2003 07:49 PM

Lots Of turning going on out there the low at 50w looks better then ever structure wise reminds me of floyd in sise not the liitle dimple things we have scene this year, all its need is convection now will wait to see if that happens near 60w. The wave in front looks like its trying to develop and that could be causing the 52w west low to slow down wich wouldent be good for the southeast. Apart from that the 32n circualtion looks like maby it will do something, and the trough off the se coast looks the same with a bit more organization. I belive its to early for this kind of development with that type of system on the move in the southwest atlintic. Plus typically an upper / trough feature needs to be stationary for a wee bit to gain organization and not on the move.

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8636 - Sun Aug 03 2003 07:53 PM

You notice Toni or am I imagining things is 90L possibly redveloping new circulation to the N.I still see the LLC in IF frames weakly at 14.7N 52W.The system is either tilted or reforming to the N possibly.And Kevin the picture on the new system looks good,the cruel death that might await it.Got to go do some video golf with the boy see if I can kick his butt.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8637 - Sun Aug 03 2003 08:21 PM

It has a lot to deal with but it is fighting. The sat pic on NRL stands out to me. It is linked on CFHC news page. As far as center reformation, hard for me to tell but possible

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8638 - Sun Aug 03 2003 09:24 PM

what is the red bulldog for ?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8639 - Sun Aug 03 2003 09:24 PM

After a few more looks I believe you are correct regarding a relocation of center. It does appear to me that it is becoming a little more balanced and if you look at the latest sat the "swirl" is 360 degrees. I can't make out the clear center as was the case a while ago so I would have to say it has moved. It is not done yet

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8640 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:24 PM

my son played baseball at Mississippi State and I wondered if that were the Georgia Bulldog or not?

thanks

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8641 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:31 PM

Hey all, having computer problems tonight,been on and off line and I can't seem to get a good sat. loop to load up right. Would love to be able to check out the possible new spin but unable to right now. I will keep trying. Still a possibility for this thing to finally take off, if the environment gets a little healthier. Sounds like the structure is improving, now let's see some convection.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8642 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:34 PM

It does look much like the GA dawg but it represents a cool refreshing drink?? Science has shown that this aids in model tracking

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
no convection = nothing to follow
      #8643 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:44 PM

everybody mentioning the SAL intrusion probably win the cookie on 90L, because the associated convection is dead right now. it had been displaced NW for the last couple days, now it's just not there. so, that low's time is numbered unless some redevelops. i'm getting weary of betting on it because even though it has low level structure, convection is very anemic.
extratropical low west of the azores is rounding a trough, some energy cutting off further west but there doesn't seem to be much energy to it. so.. don't expect it to develop.
area off the east coast is a disorganized mess.
focal area for development going back to the west. trough is really digging in over the east and NAO going 'into the tank' as bastardi used to say (when such words were free). so.. diffluent support for convection in the northern gulf, slowing waves turning NW in the caribbean, the disorganized but repetitious convection off the east coast.. will probably be the area to watch this week.
note that i don't expect anything to form in the next 3-4 days.
HF 0245z04august


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8644 - Sun Aug 03 2003 10:46 PM

TONI, I know you have this but if not try:
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Not a great shot but the 360 swirl is still there.

www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GEOS/geoseasthurri.html

Another vantage point you can zoom on

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8645 - Sun Aug 03 2003 11:53 PM

Hey Coop, LOL is that why 90L has another spin . Don't look at the loops too long. Could cause a good head spin, if you know what I mean. Thanks for help with the links! HF, a lot of people will put up a good argumnent that the SAL is no worse this year than in past years, but then again the CV has not been a hot potato in the past few years for producing a lot of storms either. I don't think as far as overall development or lack of in this case has to do with one single factor, we all know that it takes several things to come together for a system to develop and I feel that the same applies for an area not to develop. The season is still very young. We have had lot's of suprises so far this season and I don't think that we have seen our last. Hi, Just Me glad to see that you are still posting!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8646 - Mon Aug 04 2003 06:00 AM

Well, Well got some convection starting to fire up this early AM. Now if it can only hang on to it. Looks better right now than it did all day yesterday. I do see the spin to the south east of all the convection that is exposed, and then to the North west I also see a turning of the lower cloud mass or at least a hint of it. Let's see what is will do today!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8647 - Mon Aug 04 2003 07:44 AM

What about that flairup at 36N 36W this morning.Looks pretty interesting.A little popcorn on 90L see if it holds.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8648 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:09 AM

thanks Toni

I like the Bulldog anyways
I was playing around with a picture and now i have this silly picture and cant get rid of it
any one know how?

Wish it would get interesting in the tropics again... IT"S Aug ... wake up Atlantic...

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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islander
Unregistered




Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8649 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:42 AM

Have anybody looked at 90L now? It certainly looks "suspicious"...

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8650 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:46 AM

Looking at the info from the 8am Tropical Discussion and the latest WV and Sat., the flare-up seems to be very near to the location of the LLC. Is it possible 90L is waking up?

--------------------
Jara

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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: no convection = nothing to follow
      #8651 - Mon Aug 04 2003 09:55 AM

As usual, we'll have to wait and see if anything persists or if a center re-forms. Although it looks impressive at first glance, it's closer to the "weakening mid level circulation" that the NHC noted in the 805 discussion than it is to the LLC. And even then, it's NE of that mid level circulation. I actually don't even see the LLC, but I think the NHC noted reasons why it is difficult to find.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
plays peek a boo
      #8652 - Mon Aug 04 2003 09:59 AM

TW looks nice right now...watch it quick...has done this before.

Do note that any other wave I would have given a real green light for... one w/o a history of these sudden flare ups .. it has a strong high out there, warm temps and think it is even within climo to form... frankly..not sure why it hasn't formed

Always a reason during the season for these enigmas.. so someone tell me why it hasn't.

It got past the shear i think...has slowed... is in place to do something but having a hard time believing it will.

thoughts?

notice TWC made it thru the atlantic and into the GOM in record time after showing every "blue screen" it had..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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nice picture...just a little big
      #8653 - Mon Aug 04 2003 10:03 AM

thanks.. amazing how big things can blow up on the computer isnt it?

beautiful...

lets see the wave do that lol



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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Suspicious looking conglomeration in the Northwestern Gulf
      #8654 - Mon Aug 04 2003 10:34 AM

I think there is a suspicious looking Conglomeration in the NorthWestern gulf, Although not alot of convection, It seems to have a pattern to it. I don't think it is moving but the loops might be interesting by this afternoon.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Suspicious looking conglomeration in the Northwestern Gulf
      #8655 - Mon Aug 04 2003 11:24 AM

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY BE SLOW.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A EASTWARD-MOVING
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FLORES IN THE AZORES. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Hmmm...


--------------------
Jara

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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




wave
      #8656 - Mon Aug 04 2003 12:54 PM

I noticed the NHC has a recon flight tentatively scheduled for tomorrow, and the Dvorak numbers are again 1.5, as I think they were last Thursday. (They were non-existent the last couple days.)

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: wave
      #8657 - Mon Aug 04 2003 01:59 PM

The cloud mask and water vapor has expanded but it appears the tops are cooling. This could have been another of 90L's short-term blowups. What do you make of that?

--------------------
Jara

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Gayle
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8658 - Mon Aug 04 2003 02:50 PM

What is that swirling in the GOM? Could that become anything to watch out for or is that what they call a ULL? Any info would be helpful.

Thanks,
Gayle


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Suspicious looking conglomeration in the Northwestern Gulf
      #8659 - Mon Aug 04 2003 02:56 PM

Mary what you are seeing is a ULL taking on some moisture at the moment nothing to worry about now.The 90L situation what gives.It blows up some;cools off.I believe I can still see the LLC at about 15N and 55W approximatily.Then their is another patch of dry air out front stationary.Well they say it's not over till the fat lady sings..Well she needs to sing her little song or get of the stage.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
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Re: wave
      #8660 - Mon Aug 04 2003 03:13 PM

that is a upper level low that will be on a trail end of a strong e coast trough this up coming weekend.
I dont post unless I feel something should be watched or I have a forcast. The low off to the east of the island have lost the typical late afternoon cold cloud tops but the circulation has become better established,, I feel the hurricane center will dispatch a plane tomorrow if tonights TS redevelop. This will be interesting to see what data they will get. Right now it does have a circulation but since the TS have temporarilly died off I feel they wont call this a depression. But we have seen more non well defined areas in the past where they call systems a dep or even a weak TS. I feel the system is a depression as of right now due to the well defined circulation center that has redeveloped and winds around TS near 30-35mph. I would classify this as TD 8 winds 30mph 15.5N 55.8W moving wnw near 10mph. scottsvb


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: wave
      #8661 - Mon Aug 04 2003 03:28 PM

90L opened with alot of potential which it has been either unable or unwilling to live up to. Right now it looks like two tales. Expanding outflow in what appears to be a marginally favorable enviroment but without any sustained convection.

I'm with you Javelin...start the opera or bring on the band.


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Jara

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Jamie
Unregistered




Hurricane Season
      #8662 - Mon Aug 04 2003 04:01 PM

Hey Guys, I got this in email yesterday and thought i was funny enough to share with everyone.

This is really for Floridians, but it's funny enough to pass on to those who want to vicariously experience the dread!!!!!

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Gulf of Mexico and making two basic meteorological points:

(1) There is no need to panic.

(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:


STEP 1.

Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days

STEP 2.
Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3.

Drive to Ohio and remain there until Halloween. Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:


HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:

If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Ohio.


Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss. Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.


SHUTTERS:

Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.

Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.


Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.

Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Ohio.


Hurricane Proofing Your Property:

As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc..

You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately).

Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.


EVACUATION ROUTE:

If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area).

The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.


HURRICANE SUPPLIES:

If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies: 23 flashlights At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)

A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant.

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)


A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through a hurricane; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.


Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck and remember, its great living in paradise


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islander
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8663 - Mon Aug 04 2003 05:31 PM

This 90L will make history... look what NHC is saying now (again!):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?


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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8664 - Mon Aug 04 2003 05:41 PM

T numbers are 1.0/1.5, down from 1.5/1.5 this a.m.

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8665 - Mon Aug 04 2003 06:09 PM

Actually, they are right and I must give kudos to scottsvb for allowing me to see that. The circulation is quite well defined, and is moving slowly westward just above 15N. If this gets into a favorable environment it may spin up. Much of the convection was masking the circulation; and forget about any other peripheral spins you see; the circulation is quite well organized. Let's see what happens. Cheers!!

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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8666 - Mon Aug 04 2003 07:13 PM

WHXX01 KWBC 041851
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902003) ON 20030804 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030804 1800 030805 0600 030805 1800 030806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 54.9W 16.1N 56.8W 16.9N 58.5W 17.8N 60.2W
BAMM 15.5N 54.9W 16.0N 56.8W 16.8N 58.6W 17.6N 60.5W
A98E 15.5N 54.9W 15.9N 56.8W 16.4N 58.8W 17.3N 60.7W
LBAR 15.5N 54.9W 15.9N 56.7W 16.7N 58.8W 17.7N 61.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030806 1800 030807 1800 030808 1800 030809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 61.7W 20.1N 64.8W 21.4N 67.9W 23.1N 71.0W
BAMM 18.5N 62.3W 20.3N 66.0W 22.1N 69.5W 24.2N 72.6W
A98E 18.5N 62.7W 20.6N 66.7W 22.9N 70.2W 25.7N 73.0W
LBAR 18.7N 63.6W 20.7N 68.5W 23.3N 72.9W 26.5N 75.3W
SHIP 37KTS 38KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 37KTS 38KTS 34KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 53.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 51.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....







No current VORTEX Data.


No current RECON data.

Buoy and Ship observations within 150 miles of 10.0N / 41.0W





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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8667 - Mon Aug 04 2003 07:30 PM

Scott you might be right the upper air support looks better.Now we have an LLC down there and upper support going in place.If someone has data or a site about the moisture content out there to explain why we have no convection.The Sahara might as well be out there.Scott if this thing can hold together and find a nice little patch of moisture it takes off.The other thing is the path is going N of the Islands I think.This has been a dead spot so far this year.Maybe not this time we'll have to wait and see.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: wave
      #8668 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:16 PM

Been in Tallahassee all day ( I know you care ) so what I have seen is limited. There are a few interesting spots right now but my interest is 90L. I have stuck to this one from the beginning but I do see dry air comimg for it again. The Hunters have kept the idea of going in for days now... but I bet it will be cancelled.... again! We will see

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: wave
      #8669 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:40 PM

Yes Coop, we do care! Thought I had offended you with my smart @$$ remark last night. Anyway hope you had a good trip. Here is a 5 day loop of the SAL.Very interesting. Has a nice looking spin. Needs some convection, if it can do both for any length of time we may see something start to happen.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/atlsal/atlsalwavejava5.html


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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met
Unregistered




Re: wave
      #8670 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:49 PM

it is getting convection tonite. it is a hard to kill off an african system. this one has fought all the way. it will become better organized. as two said at 5:30 pm today.

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: United States
Re: Hurricane Season
      #8671 - Mon Aug 04 2003 08:59 PM

That spoof on hurricanes in Florida was so funny!!! I live down here near Daytona Beach, so I know there was a tad bit truth to it.....:)

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Season
      #8672 - Mon Aug 04 2003 09:18 PM

Here's the 00Z model run.


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/03080500


Welcome Jamie and Lady Storm to the board. Jamie, that was funny, but so true.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: wave
      #8673 - Mon Aug 04 2003 09:26 PM

Thank you for caring and I was not offended at all I think I know where you were coming from and I am all about that! Thanks for posting the SAL link! I am still trying to get a good feel on this thing... very cool

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: wave
      #8674 - Mon Aug 04 2003 09:54 PM

Now it looks like some SW shear is starting to affect 90L. If this system does develop, they will have to name it Rocky.

A while back, some people were commenting here about a massive wave trekking across the Indian Ocean. It's now second in line to come off the African coast and still looks very impressive. I'm banking that this will be the first real Cape Verde storm of the season (yes I know Bill and Claudette originated there, but you know what I mean).


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bobbi
Unregistered




Id like to know and want to know now please...why...
      #8675 - Mon Aug 04 2003 10:14 PM

This wave is not spinning.

I'm serious. Someone please explain because I think it's really important that we know because by all basicl laws it should be.

thanks in advance Bobbi


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Id like to know and want to know now please...why...
      #8676 - Mon Aug 04 2003 10:26 PM

Not much there tonight. Had a nice spin last night and today. Looks like it is being sheared again. Does any one have a good shear map? Here is the link to the wv loop, just not much there. It really looks sad tonight. Wish I had an answer for ya, but I bet when this thing is hind sight we will find out that there was a lot of different factors that kept this system from being all it could have been.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Id like to know and want to know now please...why...
      #8677 - Mon Aug 04 2003 10:41 PM

It does look weak.. the only thing I can locate is about 16.9 / 57.25 on NASA IR. I can't count it out yet! Got to get some sleep

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Id like to know and want to know now please...why...
      #8678 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:02 AM

There are a few popcorn showers around this morning. Stilll seems to have a small little spin at Apx. 16.5 and 58 this AM.
Looks like a bipolar personality to me. LOL

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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bobbi
Unregistered




first dere-echo-cane?
      #8679 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:03 AM

travels cross the ocean as one entity pulsing up and down at sunrise..is there a name for this feature?

who is using the name ladystorm? very creative name

Bobbi


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Wind Shear Link
      #8680 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:19 AM

Toni:

Atlantic Wind Shear

There is also a 48 hour product.
Cheers,
ED


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Wind Shear Link
      #8681 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:56 AM

Thanks Ed, the shear monster is not that bad, but there is some especially from the SW. I guess with a system that is not that well organized the shear would have a greater impact on it.
Is my thinking correct on that or is it because of the angle it is being sheared? Have a great day everyone!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Wind Shear Link
      #8682 - Tue Aug 05 2003 08:28 AM

SO once again the shear monster has affected our fun...

Still early gonna put on my dancin shoes and see if I can muster up some waves to cross the Atlantic so we can do some tracking. Don't want one with alot of wind and damage just a little highlight for the coming few days.

Hope all have a good day

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Id like to know and want to know now please...why...
      #8683 - Tue Aug 05 2003 08:38 AM

LOL...that was funny.

Our BW (bipolar wave) tends to look better during the morning hours. The recon is still scheduled for 2:00 today. San Juan NWS is forecasting heavy rain and some gusty winds down here for tonight through Thursday.

Let's see.


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Wind Shear Link
      #8684 - Tue Aug 05 2003 09:57 AM

I don't know guys this system look a lot better than it did last night( moisture).I look at some wind fields of the storm N quardant one cell 45kts.The area around the center 30-35 kts.The shear map Ed gave ,if I read it right, the shear is about to diminish to almost nothing.Let's see if all the element required to derive a storm come together here.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Wind Shear Link
      #8685 - Tue Aug 05 2003 11:00 AM

MY dancin shoes working already?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Wind Shear Link
      #8686 - Tue Aug 05 2003 11:09 AM

Give it time .This needs to continue for at least 24 hrs.

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Jamie
Unregistered




Models
      #8687 - Tue Aug 05 2003 11:20 AM

SHIPS Model brings winds to 47 kts in 120hrs.




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Jamie
Unregistered




Recon cancelled today, rescheduled for wednesday...if necessary.
      #8688 - Tue Aug 05 2003 11:28 AM

A well-defined tropical wave located about 175 miles east of the Leeward Islands is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. While there has been an increase in associated shower and thunderstorm activity...there are no signs of an organized surface circulation and the Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled for today has been cancelled. Some slow development of this system is still possible over the next few days...and a reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday ...if necessary.

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low north of the western Azores Islands has diminished.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Recon cancelled today, rescheduled for wednesday...if necessary.
      #8689 - Tue Aug 05 2003 11:59 AM

90L is pulling its Jekyl and Hyde routine again. What do you think? Will the monster Mr Hyde win this time?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Recon cancelled today, rescheduled for wednesday...if necessary.
      #8690 - Tue Aug 05 2003 02:44 PM

This one makes me a bit nervous. 90L is kicking up quite a rooster tail as she heads into the Caribbean, and maybe passing near or over Puerto Rico in the next day. If the Shear lets up, this thing will develop quickly. By the time she gets to the Bahamas, you can throw the intensity forecast out. If the LBAR or BAMM scenario holds, our saving grace in Central Florida might be the shear caused by the trough. It all will depend on how far west the trough axis locates, and where the ridge is, which will push down to the straits by Friday. That being said (mentioning Florida) it either 1) won't develop or 2) go thru the Straits, or 3) stay offshore with the fish. Not wishcasting here, just pointing out that of the possbile candidates for an east coast landfall, should Erika develop, this would be one that could cause problems IF it followed the path(s) indicated by the models. Not to worry. Let's watch! Cheers!!

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
So...what do you think Steve? Will it or won't it?
      #8691 - Tue Aug 05 2003 02:56 PM

Come on..make a call..

Disapates again.. (til morning ) or... TS status at least?

Does it get a name or not Steve?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re: Recon cancelled today, rescheduled for wednesday...if necessary.
      #8692 - Tue Aug 05 2003 02:56 PM

Interesting to see the convection flaring up again on 90L, is this just a temporary flare-up or the beginning of a sustained
growth period?. SW Shear is expected to let up soon , so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 12-24hrs.

Cheers


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Shear from NE?
      #8693 - Tue Aug 05 2003 03:00 PM

Worried about the developing ULL to its NNE..
someone please look and comment..
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: So...what do you think Steve? Will it or won't it?
      #8694 - Tue Aug 05 2003 03:23 PM

I'm not sure what Steve thinks, but unless there is some persistence through the evening, I would not bet my lunch money on any development. It looks right now like it maybe returning to Dr. Jekyl. This is like a repeat performance of yesterday although not as rapid or pronounced. I'd take 5 to 1 odds I guess, otherwise I'll stick with horse racing.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Rain Rain Rain for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
      #8695 - Tue Aug 05 2003 03:39 PM

Not more than that with maybe some squalls involved but a rainy day tommorow if the track stays as it is.Here in Puerto Rico the main problem when a tropical system arrives is the flooding and that is what I will see here but not the massive event that Hortense brought to us as more than 23 inches of rain fell in many parts of the island.I dont expect any development from it before it makes it to the leewards but that area from west of Antigua to ST Croix has a very warm eddy of SST's and it may fire more there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Rain Rain Rain for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
      #8696 - Tue Aug 05 2003 03:50 PM

Oh it will Lois, just not yet. Coupla days....when it gets west of Puerto Rico. The ULL to its NNE should be less of a problem over time 90L is moving faster than it to the west. That ULL is basically stationary. The ULL to its NW should fill over the next day or so, as it is getting squeezed by the trough. Will be interesting, and yes, I think it will develop. Cheers!!

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Brad W
Unregistered




National Weather Service Miami
      #8697 - Tue Aug 05 2003 04:17 PM

This is from the 254 pm discussion from the Miami office of the National Weather Service. I assume this "weak tropical wave" is 90L? Or am I mistaken? The timing makes it sound like that's the one:

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES PROGGED TO BE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD
MEAN THAT EFFECTS OF THE WAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODELS ONLY INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA.


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: National Weather Service Miami
      #8698 - Tue Aug 05 2003 04:32 PM

Yep, interesting. Especially given the 18Z run. But what else are they gonna say at this point. Cheers!!

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
waiting for next model run
      #8699 - Tue Aug 05 2003 04:38 PM

cant wait...

a whole day of convection... maybe maybe..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: waiting for next model run
      #8700 - Tue Aug 05 2003 04:51 PM

Well it ain't my fault!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!

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Bill
Unregistered




No development over next 48 hrs, if ever...
      #8701 - Tue Aug 05 2003 05:36 PM



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islander
Unregistered




Re: No development over next 48 hrs, if ever...
      #8702 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:03 PM

Welll...that's what concerns me mostly. NHC has stated that it can become a TD "during the next hours" many times during the past few days. I cannot imagine the recon coming back tomorrow to classify the system on top of the islands as a TS with very little time to get prepared. Yes...sounds exaggerated and maybe stupid. But this wave has been laughing at forecasts for 2 weeks...

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
persistence
      #8703 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:09 PM

rule #1 of any area to watch is "persistence" and this wave has persisted in this manner for days.. seems like weeks and so imagine it will persist and shouldn't be written off so easily when this morning's runs had it a tropical storm in less than 3 days headed wnw



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: persistence
      #8704 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:36 PM

as far as low level circulation goes 90L is not as well defined as earlier.. its low level turning is no longer circular but elongated north south. most of the convection is on the back side.. low level turning is moving out ahead of it as it continues to refire on a wind-surge line. actually depriving the core of the benefits. i'm unwilling to make a call on whether it will develop. system has remained just under t.d. margin for a full week.
other interest, the trailer wave still has a good turning axis around 10-15n at 45w, no convection to go with it.
nothing much else going on, mid latitude low near the azores moving back into the north atlantic.
trough set up on the east coast, if anything were to develop the recurvature corridor would bring it from florida up to new england.
HF 2239z05august


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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: persistence
      #8705 - Tue Aug 05 2003 06:40 PM

Although I agree this wave shouldn't be easily written off:

(1) In the applicable sense, I think "persistence" means persistence of organized convection and a low-level circulation, not persistence of the wave in its current form (i.e., pulsing on and off). Convection, let alone organized convection, has not persisted for days.

(2) The current ships model run still takes it to TS strength. However, I think those model runs are based on the assumption (because this is the inputted data) that a TD already exists. In the most recent runs, the models were based on the assumption that a 25 KT TD already exists. Because it does not, that "TS in 3 days" conclusion doesn't mean much, if anything, as far as predicting strength. If it does gain TD strength, the next model run will be more helpful.

But in light of those model runs and how close they come to S. Fla., I hope it's on-again-off-again generally unhealthy appearance continues.


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Brad
Unregistered




Re: persistence
      #8706 - Tue Aug 05 2003 07:08 PM

I meant "its" not "it's"--grammar doesn't count here, right?

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LadyStorm
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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8707 - Tue Aug 05 2003 08:31 PM

Thanks for the compliment Bobbi, I have been on here about a year. My name is MaryAnn, I am just north of Daytona Beach. Kinda new around here......:)

--------------------
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thinking we were at when we created them"

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8708 - Tue Aug 05 2003 09:53 PM

Welcome to the board Lady Storm.


Well the convection has stuck around all day and we are fast approaching the noctural wake up time. If we have convection still hanging on in the morning, and with the anticipated decreased shear, hmmn, just might see this thing finally take off. The SAL even looks like it is decreasing in the area. Improvement in the environment may give this thing the big push that it needs to get fired up.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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JustMe
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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8709 - Tue Aug 05 2003 10:05 PM

anxious to see what happens from here

wondering if it is playing with us still or now it is ready to rock and roll

watching and waiting

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8710 - Tue Aug 05 2003 10:16 PM

Hey JustMe, it's hard to say with this thing what it will end up doing, but as Bobbi mentioned, it has been around for a while now. Even with all it's problems and as poor as it has looked at times(which is most of the time) it still has our attention and that within itself is worth mentioning. Let's see if there are any suprises tomorrow!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8711 - Tue Aug 05 2003 10:17 PM

Have been busy so don't know much. 90L has looked great during the day but falls off at night...per the norm. I still think it has the chance to be named TD/TS. We will see

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JustMe
Weather Guru


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Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8712 - Tue Aug 05 2003 10:35 PM

Toni maybe this wave will finally take hold and give us something to really talk about in here. Tomorrow will hold lots of suprises as I am sure the rest of the seasonl. Seems as though they are saying at this hour that it will be no more than a wave ... time will tell. Been a year of "who would have thought that"....

Nite All

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Beach Dude
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8714 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:11 AM

What a boring start to August...
Nothing really worth comenting on.
Joe B said that he exspects Fl to be
under the gun for the rest of the season.
Will see...


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islander
Unregistered




Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8715 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:21 AM

John / Mike...was the site down earlier today?

Well, our wave is hinting at replaying its daily show again. It seems convection wants to wrap around once more. Any comment?


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: first dere-echo-cane?
      #8716 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:38 AM

The only way I could find a picture of the center was at the naval site IF-BD.It is not much of a center either just a swirl.I would not put to much faith in it.

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LoisCane
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haha under the gun.... water pistol or plastic darts???
      #8717 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:51 AM

yes.. i am being sarcastic

bingo
bored

tired of swirl watching

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Steve
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Hey Y'all, back from NY & OH...
      #8718 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:54 AM

The only things tropical I did since I got home was read an excerpt or two from Bastardi, check the SOI (which was heavily negative but has gone positive perhaps in response to the Super Typhoon), and check the water temperature profiles. The SSTA's are pretty interesting heading into mid-August. The Atlantic as a whole is neutral to slightly warm. Water along the shore of the East Coast is the coldest relative to normal except around New England. Water east of Puerto Rico has warmed considerably (relative to average) in the last 2 weeks. And oh btw, is that a bubble of some warmer water off the coast of Peru about 5S? Ha ha. I gotcho La Nina /rite hea'/.

Joe B is posting his details on Friday (8/8) for the updated landfall intensity forecast. He's already said it's being raised. Here's a pieces-part:

"The overall intensity rating for landfalling storms will be raised. The June forecast pure numbers were lower than what I went out with because I used my trend theory to adjust them up. I did not use that this time, but the analog years used brought the new objective numbers up to and past the original subjectively adjusted up ones, with the greatest increases in Florida."

If I remember right, I had a few hits on FL in my seasonal forecast (see Forum, I'm too tired to look myself). In any event, if you live down in the Sunshine State and don't pay the $19.95/month for Joe B, you might as well sign up for your 30-day free trial and carry it through October. That's less than $40 for some juicy daily details.

The obligatory Bobbi vacation report: "Mass quantities were consumed."

We left Cuba, NY @ 12:00 yesterday and arrived back in Metairie for 6:30am. It rained in EVERY state along the way home (NY,PA,OH,KY,TN,AL,MS,LA) which is a first for me. L8R,

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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JustMe
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Re: Hey Y'all, back from NY & OH...
      #8719 - Wed Aug 06 2003 11:15 AM

welcome back we missed you however as you see not much happened

your wit will be nice during the lull before the storms

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Jamie
Unregistered




Hurricane Center writing 90L off
      #8720 - Wed Aug 06 2003 12:34 PM

Hey Guys

Looks like the National Hurricane Center is writing this one off now (90L). Tropical Weather Outlook says development is no longer anticipated. Recon Flight was also cancelled by the NHC earlier today.


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LoisCane
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sounds like fun
      #8721 - Wed Aug 06 2003 02:53 PM

thanks for the report... glad youre back
missed u
bobbi

--------------------
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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8722 - Wed Aug 06 2003 05:07 PM

What's the current reasoning for the "lull" in the atlantic?., is it because of dry air at the mid and upper levels which is preventing any development, or wind shear scross the region?, comments?

Tropics Guy


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Steve H.
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8723 - Wed Aug 06 2003 05:30 PM

Yes!

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HanKFranK
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8724 - Wed Aug 06 2003 07:20 PM

gray's update today toned down his seasonal forecast a tad. he still predicts ten more named storms, six more hurricanes.. but has cut down on the number of active days and such.
as far as when things go active again.. looks like a neutral signal where activity will come in sprints. MJO will give us six weeks of feast and six of famine.. or something like that. the usual indicator i go by for when things go active is look for an eastpac system to form, then 6-10 days later the atlantic usually starts spitting them out. by the way, the latest date for the first eastpac hurricane is august 8th, set in 1968. 2003 will take that record up a notch it looks like.
so, prospects. 90L has lost its swirl, which was what it had going. so, write that one off after a week of tracking and waiting. in the north central atlantic another extratropical low is breaking away into the trough.. this one is slowing down rather than tearing away NE. most of the globals are forecasting a very large gale center up there going into the weekend, so there's baroclinic power trip potential here if this low can establish itself ahead of it. it's over 26C water, not implausible.
the other model hint i'm latching on to is the lower pressure axis forecast in the eastern gulf under our rather sharp trough here in the east (rains here every day almost). by the weekend some are hinting at some kind of gulf low coming up the coast from that area.. perhaps something a shortwave would kick up. it's worth a mention, as i've seen similar suggestions on earlier runs. can't see any info on MJO so the relative potential of something getting together is unknown, but after july i'm willing to bet that we are on downtime, and not much is going to happen in the near future.
so, gray has us down for three named storms this month. after some recent augusts that isn't too hard to imagine happening. one major hurricane in the mix. so, will that be erika, fabian or grace? as always, we'll see.
HF 2322z06august


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8725 - Wed Aug 06 2003 07:57 PM

Anyone get the 10:30pm TWO a little early??

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met
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8726 - Wed Aug 06 2003 08:05 PM

africa is getting full of storms.

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Mary K.
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8727 - Wed Aug 06 2003 08:23 PM

I was reading a weather forecast summary of prediction the other day in a magazine that is not usually known for its interest in weather. It was predicting that hurricane activity specifically, would start impacting the Mainland of the U.S. in September around the week of labor day. It also spoke to the calm in August and then another calm period in the first of October. The article did say that there would be a lot of wannabees out there to keep us jumping and viewing until the first officially named hurricane where no one is fudging the stats up to a declaration. Remember the good ole days when a hurricane was not a hurricane until it was a hurricane?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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JustMe
Weather Guru


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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8728 - Wed Aug 06 2003 09:55 PM

there is usally a labor day storm
if you took an average of years there are many more that have had waves, depressions, storms and hurricanes than not during the Labor day weekend.

could be a long 3 weeks till then

would be fun to see something to track
lull before the storms .. maybe ... we will see..

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8729 - Wed Aug 06 2003 10:49 PM

Looong day guys, but I wanted to write a quick post tonight.
Welcome back Steve, hope you had a nice time.

Ist of all Gray's prediction is just that, a prediction. It is not written in stone that he will be exactly right. But, if it holds true or at least close, we are still going to see a fairly active season. There is apx. 15 weeks left of the season, and if we have 10 more named storms, that would average out to be 1 storm every 1.5 weeks. And we would still see a Hurricane every 2.5 weeks. As far as active days, I would think that it would all depend on where the system forms, and how fast it developes.


HF, your MJO thought with 6weeks feast and 6 weeks famine would average out every 2 weeks.

It's still early August, we'll see something worth tracking soon!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Aug 06 2003 10:50 PM)


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8730 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:40 AM

Well Coop the fat lady sang today.Good ridens to these teasers and I hope we get to play ball soon.

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met
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8731 - Thu Aug 07 2003 01:08 AM

grays forecast stayed the same. active season ahead.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8732 - Thu Aug 07 2003 05:58 AM

Yep! I have to admit 90L is done. I am sure in the next week and a half we will have something that will go the distance. The funny thing is... your going to blink and before you know it, the season will be over

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8733 - Thu Aug 07 2003 06:06 AM

Come on Coop, We should have at least a few sleepless nights!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Loc: EC Florida
Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8734 - Thu Aug 07 2003 06:34 AM

Gray's forecast had an error. He's predicting three major hurricanes, but he only has one for August and 1 for September. When's the other one forecasted to occur? I dunno

For all of you Floridians here...if Gray's forecast is correct...and given the neutral ENSO/east QBO...we need to watch the Western Caribbean very closely later this season. Remember 2001? Iris and Michelle, and that year had neutral ENSO and easterly QBO. Just had warm water (check), low SLPA's (check), and good support at the outflow level (we'll see).


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8735 - Thu Aug 07 2003 07:10 AM

Hmmmm... maybe he's going to cover October and November at the same time. I'll take a guess at Oct.27-Nov.5th.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8736 - Thu Aug 07 2003 07:51 AM

Well on another note (he's avoiding discussing the 90L bust), the NOGAPS wants to develop a tropical low just east of the Windwards and the UKMET likes the wave off Africa to develop slowly, or at least hold on as it crosses the Atlantic; the GFS starts to develop the African then opens it up. Take your pick,but the GFS hasn't been that bad. Surprised at the UKMET though. It usually doesn't like anything. Cheers!!

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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someone please post link for MJO
      #8737 - Thu Aug 07 2003 08:54 AM

thanks.. appreciate it

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
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Re: someone please post link for MJO
      #8738 - Thu Aug 07 2003 09:39 AM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html

This is the animated loop of the MJO and watch those green lines comming soon into the atlantic and when that happens it will be the spark for developments.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Aug 07 2003 09:40 AM)


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Robert
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East Paciific
      #8739 - Thu Aug 07 2003 10:35 AM

We have a TD In the east pacific. Start watching out for the atlantic.

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Robert
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Re: someone please post link for MJO
      #8740 - Thu Aug 07 2003 10:40 AM

The MJO link is from mid july untill august 5 it is not a forcast just what has happend.

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LoisCane
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thank you cyclone..notice however
      #8741 - Thu Aug 07 2003 11:19 AM

that the current only cyclone on the maps is in the brown area... wouldn't that be against the general MJO indications however they are at peak of climo.. no?

not sure
but thank you.. yes its what has happened but you can make a good educated guess what will happen the next few weeks based on it..thanks



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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re:NOAA hurricane forecast
      #8742 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:15 PM

MIAMI -- Government forecasters said Thursday that the current hurricane season is likely to be busier than their original predictions, with more of a danger to the United States and Caribbean.

The prediction comes just hours after hurricane prognosticator William Gray on Wednesday predicted In an updated forecast a slower season. Gray'sforecast sees 14 named storms, including eight hurricanes -- three with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, which still reflects a slightly busier than normal season.

Tropics Guy


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Gayle
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8743 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:19 PM

Forgive me I'm new and still learning. But I see a spin in the GOM near the Yucatan. I see a spin on the WV loops. Is that a possible low or a ULL. Could someone explain the difference to me.

Thanks


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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8744 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:27 PM

Looks like a ULL to me, it shows up nicely on the WV loop. A surface low would show up on the visible, and I see no sign of that.

Tropics Guy


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Gayle
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead? Thanks Tropics Guy
      #8745 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:31 PM


Thanks for the info that is very helpful. I feel silly asking such a silly question but if I don't ask I won't know.

Thanks Again
Gayle


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Quiet times ahead?
      #8746 - Thu Aug 07 2003 12:32 PM

Hey wait a minute. The NOAA outlook haEric Blake and Chris Landsea on their forecast team. Aren't they also on Dr. Gray's Team???? They have different forecasts for the remainder of the season...at least different tones. Who's kidding who here. Cheers!!

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LoisCane
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Lot of ULLs out there... lots
      #8747 - Thu Aug 07 2003 01:07 PM

Sat watching the loop and realized I was watching ULLs spin.



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LoisCane
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Blake and Landsea like to collaborate it seems
      #8748 - Thu Aug 07 2003 01:11 PM

Guess they keep busy.

Imagine there is a reason why the reports are different, or rather the end guess/timates but sort of like you know its a chocolate cake but without tasting it you don't know what other flavors are in there.

All about hurricanes though

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Alex
Unregistered




why these quiet times should not last for very long
      #8749 - Thu Aug 07 2003 01:20 PM

Over the last 2 weeks or so, it seems as if every tropical wave to emerge off Africa had some kind of low level spin with it. Seeing as this pattern appears to continue(look at the Eastern Atlantic Infrared) it would be pluasible to believe that one of these systems could maintain its integrity and develope.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: why these quiet times should not last for very long
      #8750 - Thu Aug 07 2003 01:53 PM

I think we all have HIgh Hopes HIgh Hopes but like the ant I don't forsee anything happening in the next few days....

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re: why these quiet times should not last for very long
      #8751 - Thu Aug 07 2003 02:15 PM

Once the dry air at the mid and upper levels retreat somewhat north, then the waves coming off Africa could start developing and also the ITCZ will begin to fire up also. Could be awhile before this happens though, until then watch the Carib or just off the east coast for any development.

Tropics Guy


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
integrity but no moisture
      #8752 - Thu Aug 07 2003 02:21 PM

They have plenty of integrity..they are being robbed.. and assaulted by other not popular politically correct features that no one wants to talk about out there

But never be it said they do not have integrity..you are so right on that!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Quiet Time
      #8753 - Thu Aug 07 2003 03:47 PM

Have you noticed the action over Africa this afternoon? I was feeding my boredom watching the Meteostat 7 IR loop and there is a monster formation nearing the West African Coast. Its pretty impressive.

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Jara

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Re: Quiet Time
      #8754 - Thu Aug 07 2003 04:00 PM Attachment (208 downloads)

Since we are all bored, take a look at the attached satellite.

--------------------
Jara

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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Quiet Time
      #8755 - Thu Aug 07 2003 04:51 PM

Does look pretty impressive but I pose one question. Will it survive the massive tropical condition that has consumed the Atlantic tropics for a couple of weeks now? Much more impressive than the storm still within the bounds of Africa.

The Atlantic "Dead Reckoning" of 2003"

Rick


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Quiet Time
      #8756 - Thu Aug 07 2003 05:04 PM

Things should moisten up early next week, and the low near the CV should help lift the ITCZ. This is looking pretty impressive, and has been much touted during the past week. Has possibilities. Cheers!!

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Rad
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Re: Quiet Time
      #8757 - Thu Aug 07 2003 05:42 PM

Agree Steve , Things will begin picking up in a few weeks.

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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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QuickScat of CV wave
      #8758 - Thu Aug 07 2003 07:31 PM

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBas32.png

That circulation looks good but if it wants to develop it has to gather thunderstorms.But this system should be the kickoff for the CV season at it's peak that begins on august 15th.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: QuickScat of CV wave
      #8759 - Thu Aug 07 2003 07:34 PM

Seems as though some of the models want to take that low to the north within a few days. I've been off cpu's for a week, but I'm assuming that's the wave we were tracking last week in the Indian Ocean. There's plenty more to come as it is only August 8th. People were writing off entire seasons in 2001 and 2002 based on slow starts. It'll get cranking soon enough.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Hurric
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Re: Quiet Time
      #8760 - Thu Aug 07 2003 07:36 PM

North Palm Beach County tornado damage is widespread. Injuries in Riviera Beach and looting reported. City officials telling people to stay away
At least three funnel clouds reported from Jupiter south to about West Palm Beach around 5 pm this afternoon.
Mobile Park hit and many home severely damaged or destroyed


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Hurric
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Re: Quiet Time
      #8761 - Thu Aug 07 2003 08:07 PM

This link takes you to Palm Beach County news site that has video of tornado and reports

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/palm_beach_news/article/0,1651,TCP_1020_2166487,00.html


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Steve
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NOAA and the cold Atlantic Surf...
      #8762 - Thu Aug 07 2003 09:30 PM

Cold Surf Water

We had some discussion about this a couple of weeks back. In the interest of hurricanes, icy water inside the continental shelf means that few storms will be intensifying at landfall on the East Coast - for now. I once went to Nags Head in early June and the water was like 75 degrees. It's hard to imagine 60's in mid-August. Brrrrrr. Bastardi brought this one to my attention as he put it:

Over the past month, since this big "mystery" has been appearing, this has explained in this column at least a half dozen times. In the article, the very things talked about here are being looked at as the reasons for this. I personally favor the salinity and flow difference idea I have put forth due to so much water coming in from the bays. The bays themselves are warm, so it has be eddies underwater may be caused by such things as the change in rate of flow and salinity of the water. The Navy, and I dont know if they still do this, used to run silent subs with the use of perpetual salt pools which created a flow of water that generated power in a wave that was so silent the soviets would have trouble picking the subs up on Sonar....(the rest is on his website).
---------------------------------------------------
The more we learn about water temperature profiles and their potential interaction with hurricanes, the smarter we'll become as enthusiasts. I started watching them intently after Lili crossed Isidore's path from a couple weeks prior. I don't profess to understand macro water temperature issues, but certainly can see the relationship between intensifying storm potential and the water a given storm has to work with.

Steve

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Tropics Guy
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Re: QuickScat of CV wave
      #8763 - Thu Aug 07 2003 09:36 PM

What about the next wave getting ready to exit Africa., looks pretty good on satellite, any chances for development?

Tropics Guy

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Tornado In Palm Beach County, FL
      #8764 - Thu Aug 07 2003 10:00 PM Attachment (232 downloads)

Preliminary report from Palm Beach County is that today's tornado was a high end F-1. Its path was 200-300 yards wide and lasted 3 miles. Here in Boynton Beach it was a close call, but all is well. You can find a slide show located at this website:
http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/weather/2390257/detail.html


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tornado In Palm Beach County, FL
      #8765 - Thu Aug 07 2003 10:53 PM

I feel for them. This am in Bay county it looked bad. Nothing reached severe limits but the storms trained on us so local flooding was a problem... but we still be kicking

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Alex
Unregistered




never can tell
      #8766 - Thu Aug 07 2003 10:54 PM

Yes, the wave over Africa does look potent, but one can never tell about what those systems will do until after they dip their feet into the water. Its such a change of environment so its hard to tell whether a wave will survive or not. But it certainly is worth watching

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Robert
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Bastardi smardi Steve *DELETED*
      #8767 - Fri Aug 08 2003 10:37 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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willy
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Re: Tornado In Palm Beach County, FL
      #8768 - Fri Aug 08 2003 11:38 AM

I guess beatingTampa Bay twice last year was only a dream right.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: quiet times
      #8769 - Fri Aug 08 2003 12:58 PM

We'll all remember these quiet times when things start heating up in the next week or so., until then zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz......

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Why jump my ass?
      #8770 - Fri Aug 08 2003 01:49 PM

I was getting reamed out for posting my experiences in cold water. I didn't get into the debate between you to. However, one would think you'd be a bit more appreciative since the Washington Post article somewhat verified what you were saying. And besides, the only Florida water I've been swimming in this year was late April in Panama City Beach. It was plenty warm enough to swim in.

What went down between you and Troy was between you guys. Don't take it out on me.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of water temperatures, here's the high-res on Gulf Stream (east coast) temps for August 8th:

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs/03aug/index_thumb_short.html



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HanKFranK
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Re: quiet times
      #8771 - Fri Aug 08 2003 01:51 PM

time to do what we do when there's no active storm to track.... look for the first signs of the next one. here's the current picture.
synoptically i like to look for signals that activity in the atlantic is possible, and i'm seeing a couple. one is the development of guillermo in the eastpac. when that basin goes active, the atlantic tends to follow in a few days. then there's the global circulation to consider. i remember last year in the good ole days when bastardi was free, his talking about the arctic vortex relocating from northwestern canada to the upper hudson bay in late summer. it results in the atlantic ridge axis and ITCZ jooking northward and lighting the path for cape verde waves. the arctic vortex is transitioning up there now.. which implies that the basin is priming for the seasonal core.
there isnt anything the NHC outlook is interested in.. but i've got a couple things in mind. one is the central atlantic. models still have that large gale center bombing out after an energy pulse from the eastern trough moves off the grand banks.. and exactly how that system moves in the north atlantic has heavy implications for how the ridge is aligned next week. there are a couple of healthy swirls with the cutoff energy currently out there, the northern one with convection... but they only present the chance of a short lived storm at high latitude.. and neither has much chance of becoming one.
the other global feature i've been eyeballing is the lower extent of the eastern u.s. trough in the gulf.. it's dug all the way into the gulf. this part is forecast to negatively tilt and retrograde as it pulses, back to a texas to great lakes axis. with the convection and lower pressure in the area it still bears watching as a disturbance on it could do something.. but as of right now there is no real focal point for anything.
the wave train.. hard to say. it really needs some life in it to do anything, thats what we're waiting on. globals track some of them but don't do much as they must traverse a moisture starved environment.
but, change is probably on the horizon.
HF 1754z08august


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Mary K.
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Re: quiet times
      #8772 - Fri Aug 08 2003 02:17 PM

I personally like these times when no hurricane is close to Florida. The hurricanes that come toward us tend to draw off our moisture. We become dry and hot or dry but muggy. These afternoon T-storms are short and interesting. Some are quite violent enough to suite me and then some. So it does not bother me in the least that we do not have a hurricane yet. I will just have to get a paid vacation off some other way.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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cyclone_head
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8773 - Fri Aug 08 2003 03:08 PM

It looks to me like the two areas (15N/30W and 24N/30W) have started to build a little. Does this indicate a transition from upper level to lower level is taking place?

Any thoughts?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Rick


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cyclone_head
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8774 - Fri Aug 08 2003 03:13 PM

Im sorry the second area should be 24N/48W....

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Tropics Guy
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8775 - Fri Aug 08 2003 03:26 PM

It appears that the East Atlantic is moistening up somewhat, on the East Atlantic WV loop the dry air seems to be retreating somewhat to the northwest, maybe this is the beginning of a trend which will allow some of these tropical lows spinning off of Africa to have a chance.

Tropics Guy

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8776 - Fri Aug 08 2003 04:40 PM

That low at 30 west is moving into an area of more favorable SSTs. If the subsidence is retreating and 30w can build more convection to go with its well-formed twist, something interesting could result.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8777 - Fri Aug 08 2003 04:47 PM

I agree, what about the circulation and building convection at 31N 47W, is this a ULL making its way to the surface?
shows up nicely on this loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Tropics Guy

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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willy
Unregistered




Re: quiet times
      #8778 - Fri Aug 08 2003 04:53 PM

Are we talking about the weather heating up , or the locker
rooms in Miami, & Tampa Bay.The bill for Bengay and Icyhot
must cost your teams a fortune ! And the ZZZZZZ's must
stand for Scores Opponent 34 - Miami ZZZZZero !


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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8779 - Fri Aug 08 2003 05:22 PM

Good catch, Tropics Guy. The TPC noted it in the 530 outlook.

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8780 - Fri Aug 08 2003 06:52 PM

The swirl at 30N. and 47W is starting to build some convection. Things could start to really pop with this thing and we may finally have something to watch, especially the East Coast this weekend and next week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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troy
Unregistered




rober
      #8781 - Fri Aug 08 2003 07:07 PM

robert please do not call me names.

I said I doubt it was in the 50's/ Never said it wasnt in the 60's... It was bad enough someone bashed people( and me privately) for talking about a ocean swell or stuff not entirely tropica, l now this....

I just used the reported reading with the 20 mile bouy water temps along with my personal daily surfing for my rebutal of the water in the 50's report. I never called you a name.



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troy
Unregistered




Re: robert
      #8782 - Fri Aug 08 2003 07:27 PM

Furthermore... I never even debated you on that topic other than to say I doubt water temps were in the 50's. I even, trying to keep things fun during a no storm time, asked you if you caught any of that small swell we had up here.

The extent of any debate regarding water temps was as to how far out the colder water was/is and the effect, if any, the cold water close to shore, would have on the strenghth of any tropical system.

The bouy readings then and now show temps in the 80's. That was the basis of my sole idea that the cold water being in such a small area would have little effect on any system.

Not sure why name calling was neded but oh well. have fun.
take care everyone...

bye



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bobbi
Unregistered




guess we all need a storm.. a bit too much arguing here
      #8783 - Fri Aug 08 2003 07:50 PM

Come on guys.. make friends..

Seriously.. just dont see how that wave can do what the one that came before didn't do.. looks almost identical to me... very very bottom heavy. And, the top has been chewed off by a monster dragon and its hot breath... searing all the moisture out of it.... like in the belly of the beast and unless its name is Jonah I don't think its going to do what the models want it to..

My thoughts...trust me would LOVE to be wrong on this.. really.

Just... this wave looked better over Indian Ocean..over Africa and over the Atlantic its poof gone so far.

Surprise me... come on.. but can you not see there is a problem out there.

Maybe the shear size of the wave will add some tropical moisture and help the next and soon we will be in peak time and have canes but til then..

Go fins!

And.. I would love to wrong.

My best friend Sharon gets back to Miami Sunday night and she put in an order not to miss anything so would say we are go for development on MOnday if you hold from the Hurricane Sharon girl.

Have a great weekend guys.. Bobbi
ps...have this really great book that someone was such a doll to send me... Charlie Neumann and the Jarvinen person..tracks of all years .. unreal so going to wander though the oldie goldies and see you later

Bobbi


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Steve
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LOL HF...
      #8784 - Fri Aug 08 2003 08:25 PM

Funny you should mention artic vortices as this is straight from today's column:

"Instead of dwelling on next week, a word about the week after. When I say a jailbreak pattern I am talking about a change in amplitude and position of troughs and ridges. First of all, the big key to jumping all over the warmth next week is the formation of the strong vortex on the north shore of Canada which means the westerlies pull north in the large sense. The resulting pulling north to under the jet of low pressure with the path of high pressure also responding should mean that warm air blasts east across southern Canada and the high pressure over the atlantic migrates north. This should get the hurricane season cranking again. We are in negative NAO, one of my keys for development, and this is first morning I have seen thunderstorms with various waves increase. However, there is still an awful lot of dry air to get rid of in the deep tropics, though the changes going on mean that should be starting to happen. Please check our hurricane forecast for the overall details
-------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the hurricane forecast, they specifically requested that the information is not for distribution outside the service. So I'm not going to post any of the philosophies and methodolgy behind the changes except that the update factors in objective ideas (water profile and July temp/precip analogs) and increased his landfall intensity totals, highest on the FL Peninsula.

Anyway, you guys have a good weekend too. Enjoy that book Bobbi. The only thing I see with potential right now is the wave crossing the islands. There's not much convection there, but these have been known to blow up between 75-80W. We'll see. As to the first big CV wave, it's doing it's own dirty work by helping moisten up all that dry, subsiding air in the Eastern Atlantic. Now we bide our time until the meat of the season.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: LOL HF...
      #8785 - Fri Aug 08 2003 09:19 PM

Since all is quiet, I figured I'd get a plug in. GO BUCS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Alex
Unregistered




concerning waves
      #8786 - Fri Aug 08 2003 09:31 PM

The waves that come off Africa right now are being sacrificed, so that other storms form later. Each one moisturizes the area more, and so eventuall, conditions will become more favorable.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: concerning waves
      #8787 - Fri Aug 08 2003 10:46 PM

At times this place would sound like a bar @ 2am. How I would know that, I don't know It sparks me what the models depict. The GOM is my area of interest right now... not to discount the ATL at all! Wait and see

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57497479
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Re: concerning waves
      #8788 - Fri Aug 08 2003 11:17 PM

Hey Coop are the models picking up on something in the Gulf? Believe me we have seen our share of rain the last few days from the Gulf. The 30N and 47W has lost convection tonight.


If we could take some of our stored up energy and anticipation and throw it into the Atlantic we would see one heck of a cane out there.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: concerning waves
      #8789 - Fri Aug 08 2003 11:32 PM

The "globals" hint to something in the GOM as of now, the what I call "true" GFS is a little spooky... in the end..who knows I know I seem to like the "models"... it is where my work lies.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: concerning waves
      #8790 - Sat Aug 09 2003 12:08 AM

Looks like the tropical low west of the CV islands is starting to fire up some convection, do any of the models pick this up and develop it?

Tropics Guy

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Jamie-on-dabyu
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Re: concerning waves
      #8791 - Sat Aug 09 2003 01:33 AM

Hey Cooper can you or anyone else give me a good link where I can see the models?

Thanks
Jamie


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Cycloneye
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Models
      #8792 - Sat Aug 09 2003 06:41 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/models/mainmodel.htm

Here is a good model link where you can select the model you want to see.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: concerning waves
      #8793 - Sat Aug 09 2003 06:43 AM

It looks like the AVN & Ukmet try to do something in that area. The GFS pretty much has a "train" going on but a little south in lat.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: concerning waves
      #8794 - Sat Aug 09 2003 06:55 AM

http://www.met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

www.asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/

The first is global graphic, the second is tropical text. Once an invest is started I would go to the WREL Model Map. The link is on the CFHC News page. Scott is on top of things and you can't beat it The link Cycloneye gave you is great...kinda like one-stop-shopping!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 09 2003 07:01 AM)


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Tropics Guy
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Re: concerning waves
      #8795 - Sat Aug 09 2003 08:35 AM

Thanks for the model links info, we'll see if either the low west of CV or the "area of concern" well southeast of Bermuda can sustain any convection today.

Tropics Guy

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Kevin
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26N 53W
      #8796 - Sat Aug 09 2003 08:37 AM

An area that isn't to be overlooked is the little low pressure east-southeast of Bermuda. This little area has gained some thunderstorm activity this morning--and as it moves further west it will encounter some more moisture. Let's see if it does anything...

Our couplet of tropical waves off the African Coast don't look to be doing much development-wise. The environment is much more moist than it was 48 hours ago. We'll see what the next couple of waves will do.


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57497479
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Re: 26N 53W
      #8797 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:04 AM

Good morning all, been watching that area Kevin, the convection decreased last night, but looks like it is trying to re-develop some this AM. I agree, that we should keep and eye out for this one especially if you live on the east coast.


How bout' those BUC'S WHEN YOUR GOOD YOUR GOOD, WHAT MORE CAN I SAY!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
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Re: concerning waves
      #8798 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:15 AM

Good morning Coop, what time frame are you talking about that the models pick up something in the GOM?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: concerning waves
      #8799 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:42 AM

On yesterday's runs I believe it was 24hrs. The 06 run of the AVN (today) showes nothing GOM wise. The MM5, Ukmet & eta are trying to show a low in the north central GOM. There are some clouds there to work with but real close to land for any development. I would wait for the 12Z GFS run and see. I know, I know... these are models and global at that!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 09 2003 09:43 AM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: 26N 53W
      #8800 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:48 AM

Bucs 20, Dolphins 19--most excellent!!! U know, sometimes I think that Wannstedt is the worst coach in the NFL. Miami looked downright horrible...no fire or intensity at all...someone who you'd least expect (Junior Seau) got taken by Michael Pittman. Wannstedt obviously didn't prepare his team for this game. You should check some of the websites for the Miami area papers--harsh criticism.

I'll reiterate again because there isn't much else to watch in the tropics. Watch 26N 53W if it can show some persistence. By early next week, this low pressrue area will be caught on the southern side of a building Bermuda High. Warmer waters, more moisture, and lower shear. Sounds quite good to me. In addition, FWIW (lol), Bastardi mentioned this area as a possible threat to FL and the SE next week. I wouldn't say that much just yet...


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scottsvb
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Re: 26N 53W
      #8801 - Sat Aug 09 2003 10:20 AM

Kevin is correct folks and that is the only reason of concern right now. The reason mainly of this is cause the strong trough along the east coast and florida should start to lift out by Monday and a ridge should develop over the south east and the bahamas later monday night, this system has the protential to become a tropical storm storm by the beginning of next week. I expect a recon flight to be scheduled as early as Sunday evening but most likely on Monday as its still 4 days away from the Bahamas. scottsvb

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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




I disagree.
      #8802 - Sat Aug 09 2003 10:36 AM

I think the wave near 72/17 is the first concern. I noted it in a post yesterday. It's coming to life and has the potential to do something after the next 5 or so degrees west. For my money, it's far more interesting than 25/53ish.

Steve


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: concerning waves
      #8803 - Sat Aug 09 2003 10:42 AM

checked out the runs and I see what you are refering too. Most of the models are picking this up in the NE GOM as either an existing low or future low and then bringing it across N. Fl. the MM5 after crossing fl. takes it up the E. coast. We are getting one heck of a storm right now from all the disturbed weather. Looks like it is going to rain all day. Good reason to be in front of the computer. Have to watch those lightening strikes though.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: 26N 53W
      #8804 - Sat Aug 09 2003 10:46 AM

Very exciting game last night for a pre-season. The tropics are starting to get intersting again! let's just sit back and wait now...

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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scottsvb
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Re: 26N 53W
      #8805 - Sat Aug 09 2003 10:56 AM

the carribean system is a surge in the trade winds interacting with a midlevel trough,, this system will not develop and is of no interest. Nothing should develop over the gulf and there is no model showing it. Dont know where your getting that info. A possible weak low might form over the NE gulf and get quickly pushed NE along the exiting trough sunday into monday but with no concern. Main show is the small low trying to get more T-storms near 27.5N and 51w.

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Steve-unplugged
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Watch and see.
      #8806 - Sat Aug 09 2003 11:00 AM

That surge is the type of wave that could easily supply the requisite heat to get something going mid-late week. Then again, it could do nothing. But it's the first area to watch for now. I didn't get that information from anywhere. I'm watching it.

Steve


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8807 - Sat Aug 09 2003 12:00 PM

NRL has a brand new invest

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57497479
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Re: 26N 53W
      #8808 - Sat Aug 09 2003 12:29 PM

Here is the link for you. I am interested in the fact that even though it may not amount to much we are having severe thunderboomers in my area today with flooding from this mess comming in from the GOM. It's to close to land to amount to any big tripical happening, I agree with you in that respect. But It has made me want to turn off my computer a couple of times.




http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase/

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sat Aug 09 2003 12:42 PM)


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8809 - Sat Aug 09 2003 12:30 PM

Looks like we finally have something to watch, Floridians especially should keep an eye out., if this low pressure develops and the anticipated high to the north builds in, it may be very interesting next week.

Tropics Guy

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8810 - Sat Aug 09 2003 12:43 PM

It is early yet.... but I can see the possiblity of us (FL) getting popped from two sides!

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Kevin
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Time to put the thick-lenses on the tropics?
      #8811 - Sat Aug 09 2003 01:01 PM

Nah--not yet. I can greatly understand why some Floridians on this board are beginning to watch 91L with some interest. Take this food for thought:





The Melbourne forecast also mentioned easterlies becoming re-established by the middle of next week. 91L looks like one we need to keep an eye on.


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scottsvb
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8812 - Sat Aug 09 2003 02:00 PM

nothing will develop in the gulf. This is a trough,,it would take many days for something to develop and if so it would be very weak circulation. All eyes should watch the low i mentioned and kevin. Not that we are saying it will be a Hurricane but its the main intrest concerning any tropical development. scottsvb

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Alan
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8813 - Sat Aug 09 2003 02:30 PM

If anything comes toward Florida from the east, it's not going to find nice conditions.
Out in the Atlantic last night for some shark fishing off of Cocoa Beach. Air Temp: 65. Water Temp: 59.

Couldn't believe I could see my breath in August.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8814 - Sat Aug 09 2003 02:36 PM

You may very well be correct.

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scottsvb
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8815 - Sat Aug 09 2003 02:51 PM

water temp was no 59dg LMAO!

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Alan
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8816 - Sat Aug 09 2003 03:15 PM

No one around here has ever seen it like this. The beaches of Central Florida look like Northern California with fog so thick, you can't see more than 20 feet.
It's so cold the sea turtle hatchlings are refusing to go in the water. There are no manatees in the inlets and the fish just will not bite.
In 27 years of living in Florida, I've never seen anything like it. The captain on the boat said this is the strangest thing he's evert seen.
But, like it or not, 59 degrees was the water temp up to three miles off the coast. Off shore, 20 miles or so, the water is starting to warm, but it has been cold since June.


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57497479
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8817 - Sat Aug 09 2003 03:34 PM

Check out the link! If the UKMET hold true we may not only have a tropical system to come across Fl. but may end up with it in the GOM. So, there ya go may have something to watch in the gulf after all. Then again maybe not. At this point I'm not goin to bet on anything.LOL

Animate and look at 120 hrs.




http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cgi?time=2003080912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sat Aug 09 2003 03:38 PM)


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Steve-unplugged
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Scott...
      #8818 - Sat Aug 09 2003 03:45 PM

I'm not looking for model support. I'm not looking for guru guidance (Bastardi, NOAA, etc.) out there. Here's what I see, and what my concerns are with the front running wave:

We're about to have a pattern reversal where the trof that has been over the east (I know, I spent a week in Ohio & W NY) is lifting out and will be replaced by warmer air coming from the W/WNW. With the pattern shift (piece of the trof splitting down through Texas, the other piece the showing up as low pressure centered around WV/KY/OH), a surface boundary is liable to be left down in the eastern Gulf. The moisture with the wave (now moving through Hispaniola) could become entrained into whatever's down there and form a surface circulation. Any effects on the United States would likely be 2 days ahead of 55/26.

As I said, nothing might happen at all. But the possibility is there. The conditions aren't that dissimilar from what spawned Bill though any effects would be east of Bill's.t. Most likely anything that might form would be weak, but don't write coastal effects off just yet.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The tropis as a whole look better than they have in a couple of weeks. You don't have to look hard to find spinning.

Steve


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Steve
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Damn. I hate not being logged in.
      #8819 - Sat Aug 09 2003 04:14 PM

I can't fix those typos. In any event, I went over to Accuweather after I posted (hadn't been home since early this morning). Joe B is singing the same tune. His tropical update today showed his 3 areas of concern, and he added a column. Specifically (and I'm not cutting and pasting the whole thing), he is mainly worried about (what he called) 23/52 as the UL backs off SW which is on its way in some shape or form for Florida. But here's a little tidbit. A couple of years ago he taught me that being able to spot changes in a pattern will often yield more clues than the pattern itself or especially modeling.

>>The recurving typhoon stayed far enough west so as to I cant make a call as to any trof coming back, and looking for help out of SOI input reveals that it is going back and forth, so the call is for any major re-establishment of the long wave with amplification to wait till after the 20s. This means much of the nation, the exception the Pacific northwest where the trof takes its time going through and the gulf and southeast coast where the tropics will be involved ( I just dont know if its with more moisture or a hurricane or tropical storm or both yet)..

>>Tropics: August 9th and I need 3 more days to verify at least one development. In any case the pot is brewing now, and I kind of wonder if it is the trof split, which set off Bill and Claudette, that is the key. We have three areas to watch. The one of most concern is number 2, which could bring a threat to Florida Thursday and then perhaps the eastern or central gulf Friday, but all the southeast has to watch too...1st of all in the gulf before where the trof splits aloft and moves west allowing ridging over an area where this is little wind. The tropical wave is on the scene by Tuesday to supply energy into the whole thing. The place to watch for home brew is the central gulf the middle of next week. Again here is the step by step process. 1) low level trof being pushed into the gulf stoping normal strong southeast low level blow of divergent air over the western gulf, which would retard any surface convergence from approaching wave. 2) Actual feeding northwest of low level energy into the the area above 3) upper trof splitting and moving west with ridge building over the entire area. Enough said for now. ...Zones 4,5,7,8 (I'm in zone 8)...with temperatures near or above normal as opposed to the current regime, or actual development that could impact Louisiana Thur or friday, and Florida or the southeast on the same timetable from the east. While I can not predict this at this time, I can see the way the map south of 30 north is very active from wednesday on, and it is one that bears the mark of pattern of storms or rumors of storms.
------------------------------------------------
So you might have a degree, but don't discount what we amateurs have to throw in sometimes. I never claimed to be perfect and never will. But if I see something - whether anyone else does or not - I'm going to mention it.

Steve

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Watch and see.
      #8820 - Sat Aug 09 2003 04:48 PM

That new run will catch your eye. The thing that has had my interest in the GOM is the weather that is moving toward it and possibly push off into the GOM... off the LA coast

Ed, I know you are there. Remember... everyone needs a day off. I am getting close to taking mine.

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TROPIC KING
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8821 - Sat Aug 09 2003 04:54 PM

We finally have what I believe will become our next TD. I'st a complex system just now developing. We have a LLC at 28n 52w. An mid and upperlevel center at 23.7n 53w. Watervapor images show the upper& mid level center is becomming better oganized with thunderstorms developing around the center. Even though we have a LLC to its north I do believe a new center will form near the midlevel center and I think we will see this over the next 24-48 hours. Overall the system has gotten better organized today and I do believe this will continue(hope it will continue) thru the next 48 hours. Now for the IF'S. If this system developes it should move w-sw then a more west to northwest after 72 hours. The Bahama's need to watch this system closely. As for anywhere else Florida could be threatened as well but right now I'll wait before I make that official.

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Steve
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Thanks Coop...
      #8822 - Sat Aug 09 2003 05:07 PM

I'll check out the 18Z's later when I get time. I need a nap for now. But just the way things are leads to suspicions even if nothing were on the map (talking about the first two possible systems). There's potential for in-close development of 2 systems, and whether one appears to be more imminent for development due to its nearby conditions or not isn't the issue. We're in a lull trying to sniff out some development. Both of these potential systems could go either way. I'm leaning toward some development (not sure how strong yet) with each system. If we run with what Bastardi has thrown out there, we're about 5 days off from two potential threats.

The Gulf is the harder call for me because I was thinking along the lines of a NE Gulf event (AL-FL). That may be premature as MS, LA or even Texas could get in on some action late next week with this setup. 55/26 is already showing some signs of getting better organized. And it's apparent that it's going to impact Central or Southern Florida and cross over. As the Western US ridge hooks up with the Atlantic ST Ridge and flattens the pattern (following the trof split and in place by mid-week), models want to set up a blocking high. This could end up delivering a 2-landfalling storm with an E FL hit and then a second (?) Gulf hit.

All else I'm saying for now is that we're in for our most interesting week since Claudette. If I had to give a percentage, I'd go 50/50 in the Gulf and 70/30 that something comes out of the Atlantic system.

Looking forward to everyone's comments, but remember, you heard it hear first .

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8823 - Sat Aug 09 2003 05:16 PM

No, Thank You. I'll remember!

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JustMe
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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8826 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:27 PM

waiting and waching isn't easy....

Keep looking for something. Maybe this or that maybe just maybe and then .. next time.

Soon things will need to change if Gray is going to get his prediction right. My eraser is getting smaller all the time.

59 degree water temp huh... BRRR to cold for me.. I like 80's

Have a great evening and i am still waiting and watching.

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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57497479
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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8827 - Sat Aug 09 2003 09:46 PM

Your wait may be over soon, things could get hoppin this week!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8828 - Sun Aug 10 2003 12:51 AM

Well Toni you might be right.The new 91 invest I give a hum hum to ok..I do believe that somethinng might develop but just not that substantial.Now that glob of showers should it persist N of Cuba.that's interesting should it persist.Things look tranquil there.Time is the key as always.The moisture is W as stated last week.the atlantic will heat up in acouple of weeks.

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Some excerpts from this morning's Melbourne forecast discussion...
      #8829 - Sun Aug 10 2003 08:28 AM

WED-SAT...MEAN RETROGRESSION CONTINUES INTO THE MED RANGE. THIS WILL
BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AN INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT AS ATLC
AND GREAT LAKES SFC HIGHS CONGEAL INTO ONE EXPANSIVE HIGH WELL TO
THE NORTH OF FL. PRECIP REGIME WILL SHIFT TWD HIGHER POPS WWD AND
A LOWER COVG NIGHTTIME/MORNING REGIME OVER OUR CWA...WHICH WILL
ALLOW ECFL TO DRY OUT - AT LEAST FOR WED. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST
BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SFC-H85 LOW PRES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SARGASSO SEA WHILST THE
DLM ATLC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD WWD...BULLDOZING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OMNIPRESENT MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM LAST WEEK
INTO MS VALLEY AND THEN TX. THE MEAN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND
WWD-BUILDING DLM RIDGE...SUGGESTS THAT ANY LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
WOULD COME WWD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS/FL. ONE PROBLEM IS THAT BEING
UNDER A TUTT TYPE H25 LOW...SFC DEVELOPMENT UNDER THIS SCENARIO CAN
BE MESSY AND/OR NOT PAN OUT AS GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST.

WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE ATTM IS A WEAK SFC LOW WHICH SLIPPED
SOUTH INTO A BREACH IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BTWN 45-50W. THE BREACH
PINCHED INTO A TUTT LOW AND IS NOW RETROGRADING WWD BENEATH THE WEST
ATLC PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CARRYING THE SFC LOW WITH IT ON IT'S
NORTH SIDE. OBVIOUS SFC LOW NR 26N54W...SHEARED BY THE EASTERLIES ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TUTT...AND A MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TUTT
LOW CENTER NEAR 23N55W.

WITH THE H50 RIDGE EXPANDING WWD...THE EVOLUTION OF THE H25 LOW...
WHICH THE GLOBALS ARE CONSISTENT IN PULLING BACK SW-WARD INTO THE
CARIB...WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHAT FORM/STRENGTH THE SYS WILL
HAVE. BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AN INVERTED TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS AND FL LATER THIS WEEK (WED/THU). WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO
MONITOR WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP TO OUR EAST. ONCE AGAIN...IN
SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...IT IS AN EXCELLENT TIME FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
NOT YET UPDATED THEIR HURRICANE SUPPLY KIT AND ACTION PLAN TO DO SO
EARLY IN CASE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TAKE PLACE.

I noticed that 91L is flaring up again this morning. The system isn't being torn apart, that's for sure. It needs more moisture in the air to help it with dirunal cycling.



There is only a SMALL tongue of dry air separating this from the moisture laden-air to the west. One look at the WV loop shows an interesting picture. The moist air to the west is pretty much stationary, while the small band of dry air separating 91L and the moist air is moving along with 91L itself. In addition, there's some thunderstorm activity developing on the north side of 91L, which almost looks like it is putting a seal on dry air intrusion from its north and east.

Gonna be an interesting day...


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57497479
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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8830 - Sun Aug 10 2003 08:34 AM

Good Sunday morning to all, Yea Javlin the 91 invest is on a path that will lead it right to the East Coast of Fl. It has a nice spin and the convection is still there this morning. Given a little time I think it might develop futher. Hey Coop, Took a look at the GOM this AM. What you were trying to point out yesterday is dropping down out of Texas and we have a nice little flair up of some slightly spinning convection in the W.Central Gulf. Good call! Let's see what happens. The TWO is calling for the trough to dig a little farther S. and then retrograde a little. Will be intersting to see what happens with this area and then with the Central Atlantic system. Haven't had the chance to look at the models yet. Wonder what insight they have for us today?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8831 - Sun Aug 10 2003 08:41 AM

The tropicals have not come out yet, but the AVN, UKMET & now the CMC have the same idea... for now. Just keep your eyes open because you never know

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Thanks Coop...
      #8832 - Sun Aug 10 2003 10:44 AM

That's right. We never know. It looks like a lot of the energy from the front running wave re-fired east of the mess off the SE Coast. Can't tell just yet if it will fire again with the wave or if the energy was displaced due to shear from the SW. Could turn out to be some add'l moisture for 91L or might still do something out front with the surface trof. Definitely a 'watch' day today.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kevin
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11:30 AM TWO...
      #8833 - Sun Aug 10 2003 11:25 AM

THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.

Seems more likely than last night's basic "no" to development.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 11:30 AM TWO...
      #8834 - Sun Aug 10 2003 11:44 AM

Abeit " models "... they have shifted w/ the focus on FL. Have not run the globals since this am. Happy 500 Steve

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57497479
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Re: 11:30 AM TWO...
      #8835 - Sun Aug 10 2003 02:42 PM

THE UKMET 12 Z model run continues to like the Florida path. In fact at 120 hrs, it leaves us with a nice little package in the GOM. Taking all comments and thoughts on this one. Come on guys, this board is way too quite. I know we are in the holding mode but I can hardly stand the silence!!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
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Re: 11:30 AM TWO...
      #8836 - Sun Aug 10 2003 03:20 PM

I am here waiting for something intelligent to say. The only thing I have noticed is that our little entity out around 65w is still holding its own. The amount of moisture that we have received in Central Florida this weekend is amazing. But, not unusual. We had a hint of sunshine a few minutes ago and it is lighter right now than it has been all day long. As for the disturbance in the GOM everything seems to be coming in too fast to turn into much of anything except water.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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TROPIC KING
Unregistered




Re: 11:30 AM TWO...
      #8837 - Sun Aug 10 2003 03:39 PM

Not much to say right now. I am not excited with this area east of the Bahama's...YET!! Florida doesn't need more rain right now and at least thats what were in for Thursday and Friday. I don't see anything strong but Florida could see another session of heavy rain. If this area developes I don't expect much for 48 hours and then maybe some slow development before it gets to Florida. Maybe a TD or TS. not much more than that. With another 3-6 inches or more added to what we have had over the last week some major flooding could take place. I expect some development Monday and Tuesday but a definit westward track should hold thru 72 hours maybe longer. So wait and see is the answer.

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Steve
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Re: 11:30 AM TWO...
      #8838 - Sun Aug 10 2003 03:42 PM

You're probably right Mary K. I was probably a bit aggressive yesterday, but it's gonna send some independent moisture somewhere. AVN likes something from the remnants of the trof split, but it doesn't look like much.

The 12Z globals are mostly hinting at a southern track for 91L. Without exception, they want to build a very strong high over the NC Gulf and most of the SE quadrant of the US. Could Texas ultimately be in the sights? No call from me until Tuesday or Wed.

Steve

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57497479
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The 12 Z UKMET run
      #8839 - Sun Aug 10 2003 04:23 PM

Hey everyone! There was a very interesting observation that was brought up on another board, regarding the 12 Z UKMET run today. Could it be possible that the UKMET is picking up on the wave that is behind 91 invest? After taking a closer 2nd look, I think that could be a possibility. Check it out and see what you think.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The 12 Z UKMET run
      #8840 - Sun Aug 10 2003 04:31 PM

Probably so. When I ran them on ST6 you have two seperate vorts near the plot beginning so that sounds good to me

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Storm Cooper
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Re: The 12 Z UKMET run
      #8841 - Sun Aug 10 2003 05:30 PM

Well 91's T number was revoked, but can always get it back. I'm still watching the GOM for now. Whatever happens w/ 91invest, plots are sure looking at central FL, but I am sure that will change a few more times before it is over Let me change that...central FL to Cuba.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 10 2003 05:39 PM)


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stormchazer
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Re: The 12 Z UKMET run
      #8842 - Sun Aug 10 2003 05:40 PM

I agree. The dry air monster that has dominated the Atlantic still looks good but all future forecasting points to a waning of subsidence as the Bermuda High settles more north opening up the ITZ. I think we should enjoy the quiet cause I think the page will be changing over the next week or two.

--------------------
Jara

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Kevin
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Model run...
      #8843 - Sun Aug 10 2003 05:55 PM

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912003) ON 20030810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030810 1800 030811 0600 030811 1800 030812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 58.8W 25.6N 62.0W 25.8N 64.8W 26.3N 67.5W
BAMM 25.8N 58.8W 25.5N 62.2W 25.5N 65.2W 25.8N 68.0W
A98E 25.8N 58.8W 25.2N 62.5W 24.8N 65.2W 24.6N 67.2W
LBAR 25.8N 58.8W 25.5N 62.2W 25.5N 65.4W 25.9N 68.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030812 1800 030813 1800 030814 1800 030815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.1N 70.0W 28.6N 75.7W 29.1N 81.2W 27.8N 85.3W
BAMM 26.4N 70.6W 27.6N 76.3W 28.5N 82.2W 28.3N 86.3W
A98E 24.5N 68.7W 23.9N 72.1W 23.5N 76.7W 22.5N 81.7W
LBAR 26.2N 71.6W 27.3N 77.6W 28.0N 83.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 58.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 26.6N LONM12 = 54.9W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 27.5N LONM24 = 50.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1018MB OUTPRS = 1022MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

If the SHIPS intensity forecast was to verify...the Florida EC would be dealing with a 65-70 mph tropical storm landfall in about 72 hours (seems to be a little too quick). I do know that the DSHIPS model takes landmasses into account.

On a side note...the low pressure looks better organized this afternoon. The convection is going on it's typical wane although the NRL sat shot shows some popcorn convection developing near the circulation.


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


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Re: Model run...
      #8844 - Sun Aug 10 2003 06:33 PM

Ok, I have a question. Please pardon me if it is a dumb sounding one. But, These test announcements. Are they issued if they THINK something is going to happen or is this just a routine exercise, sort of like the Emergency Broad Cast stations do on the Weather radios and television?

--------------------
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Loc: EC Florida
Re: Model run...
      #8845 - Sun Aug 10 2003 06:38 PM

NHC runs the test models whenever there is an INVEST issued for an area of disturbed weather. More specifically, an area of disturbed weather with development potential. Be aware though...the intializations can be poor with these test runs because they aren't fixed on a center of circulation.

Basically...something could happen, so NHC will run "test messages" for the INVEST.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
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Re: Model run...
      #8846 - Sun Aug 10 2003 06:46 PM

Here's the test model runs from Scott @ WREL in VA. He said they were the 18Z depictions giving some backup to a FL hit theory. As the ridge builds overhead, it's anyone's game thereafter.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Here's the SSTA link:
SSTA's

And the actual SSTs:

http://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif
SST's

Here's the 48 hour shear forecast:
48 Hour Shear Map

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Model run...
      #8847 - Sun Aug 10 2003 07:17 PM

Hey Mary, been quite all day, and now we have a little something to talk about. I'm not the person to answer your test question. All I know is that it is based off of the model runs and the path that they think the system will take, plus the intensity. I think a test is generated for each run. I stand corrected if I am telling you wrong. I am sure there is someone here that can explain it better and have more info about it than me. There has been so many wanta be Erika's, that I find it a little hard to get to excited about this system. If it was up and showing some real hard core development then that is a different story. Right now we have patterns setting up and the models that will give us some clues as to what may happen. But sooner or latter I know that we will have Erika. Kevin, I believe that the DSHP does take landmass into consideration.

--------------------
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All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Model run...
      #8848 - Sun Aug 10 2003 07:39 PM

I am pretty sure all are correct w/ DSHIP taking land into account. SHIPS when first desinged was for " over water only ". I think DSHIPS was spawned for that reason. If that turns out to be wrong let me know because that is a good question

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Model run...
      #8849 - Sun Aug 10 2003 08:26 PM

Well pretty good support with the models as to which way this system could be headed. If you did not catch the link to WREL site that Steve mentioned in his earlier post, you should check it out. Scott in VA does a nice job with the model runs and tries to keep them current. If it is suppose to be over land by 120 hrs. seems to me that there is not much time for a lot of development.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


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Posts: 166
Re: Model run...
      #8850 - Sun Aug 10 2003 08:36 PM

One possible scenario is that the system in whatever form ULL or surface level low, could stall itself over the gulf stream approximately where that disturbed weather parked for 2+ weeks and then take a trip to N.C. or Georgia.Since Florida is first on the list of possible landfalls, I have to take it with a grain of salt. Either the system will never mature, or it will mature and head north. E coast of Florida always seems to get its hits from the S.E.
This little gem would have to drift a little further south to make its mark on Florida.




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Storm Cooper
User


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Re: Model run...
      #8851 - Sun Aug 10 2003 09:19 PM

That is possible! The 0Z run is out and about the same... central FL to Cuba.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Model run...
      #8852 - Sun Aug 10 2003 09:31 PM

I can't argue with the premise of what you are saying, but... the historic climatology this year has set up for a more southern and GOM season. I may be off on this but I seem to recall Andrew, Dora and Betsy as a more East-to-West storms. True they were unusual but occured under similar climatological circumstances. If you look at pre-1950 storms before they recieved names, and during a period of increase activity, there were many more of these types of Florida landfalls.

What does this mean? Not a dang thing, but the one thing to expect from the tropics is to expect anything.

** The opinion expressed here are sole the opinions of the idiot who typed them and if it proves to be incorrect, I will claim mental defect and immediatlly get a Prozac prescription (Actually, I already have one).**

--------------------
Jara

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Action This Week????
      #8853 - Sun Aug 10 2003 09:53 PM

Looks like we may have some tropical action this upcoming week. The models are pointing towards Florida as of now. For the first time in 4 days, here in Palm Beach County we didn't have any tornado warnings, but still had big storms. Last week's Palm Beach County tornado may be classified as an F-2 on Monday when more studies are made available. Here is a great link about the tornadoes:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/2003Aug07/pbtornado.html
In case you didn't see it on ESPN last night, the Boynton Beach Little League team won the Southeast Regional Tournament and is headed to the Little League World Series in Williamsport, PA. Way to go boys!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Action This Week????
      #8854 - Mon Aug 11 2003 07:21 AM

Watch to the east folks.....looks to be getting organized ...though I hope it is a temporary thing. Cheers!!

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Hurric
Weather Guru


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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Action This Week????
      #8855 - Mon Aug 11 2003 07:31 AM

Has anyone noticed the swirl at 20, 73 this morning. It shows up on this WV loop. Probably just a little temporary thing but would like to here what others think.
91L moving rapidly but still not showing anything dramatic as far as organization. It's good to have something to focus on.
Hurric
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Action This Week????
      #8856 - Mon Aug 11 2003 08:30 AM

wxman

really great about the kids winning
My son went to the 13 year old world series when he was younger. Memories he will never forget. They came in 3rd but had a great time. He went on to play college baseball.

Keeping my eyes eastward. Somehow I don't think it is going to see Flroida. We shall see.

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Action This Week????
      #8857 - Mon Aug 11 2003 09:24 AM

Looks like it may stay south of Florida. Cheers!!

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
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Re: Action This Week????
      #8858 - Mon Aug 11 2003 09:30 AM

Yep! Right into the western Gulf!!

--------------------
Jara

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
forum should be called "where oh where will our next storm be"
      #8859 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:00 AM

There have been so many swirls and twists out there..and so many ULLs that didn't pan out.. hard trying to figure this one ut.

Watching ..see the twist near Cuba that is racing along in front of the main feature.. like some movie trailer.. shows up on some wv loops better than others.

As for the big swirl.. Man...is that a BIG pocket or WHAT?

Last few frames look like convection could be getting more centrally located but still not sure. Will say one thing though it has consistently moved westward nonstop now for days and do not think anything is going to stop it so either way I would expect that to move across Florida.. where exactly I can't say but its been racing along 25n like it was I-10 so... if it stays on that course or moves at all south would have to go with a Florida landfall or cruising through the straits but again.. as WHAT..is my question for all of you.

Can it organize into a purely tropical warm core feature?

Why may I ask everyone here do you think the models seem to like it? Would be easy to say it will just pass through like other ULLs.

Listening..

Also..think CV area is a bit more favorable but time will tell there, not going to jump in again until something is a for sure thing

Have a wonderful Monday everyone and like to hear thoughts.

Richie.. cute go fins

and Jara.. love this quote.. sort of always thought it applied to me too..

"What does this mean? Not a dang thing, but the one thing to expect from the tropics is to expect anything."

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




What's This
      #8860 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:20 AM

If you take a look at this WV Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
If you can zoom, take a hard look over the Eastern tip of Cuba.
Looks like a classic "S" pattern to the circulation there.
The swirling blob above it looks to have "popcorn convection " going off.
I can't tell if there is banding between the two, it looks the the swirl off of Cuba is sucking up some of the moisture off of the
"blob"
Hope I'm not too technical


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: What's This thingie :)
      #8861 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:29 AM

ummmm think personally your swirling blob is picking up moisture from the unstable environment to its north at the bottom of the trof...sort of.. ya know

no not too technical or simple..know exactly what you mean

something interesting to watch

needs persistence and IF there is any possibility.. however remote would need have a prob as its nestled between land..

you know... ive wondered why the ULL didnt pull more to the northwest and become pulled more by all the bad weather but i really dont understand ULLs too well... maybe this little feature is anchoring it..

thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: forum should be called "where oh where will our next storm be"
      #8862 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:31 AM

CV maybe firing soon but judging from WV, there is still alot of dry air from that stationary High off the coast of Africa that waves must transverse. The ITZ does show some signs of lifting a bit that may finally start injecting moisture north into the favored breeding grounds.

Thanks LoisCane...I was in Tampa for Elena and after that, I decided the more you know, the dumber you are. Thats why I love the tropics. Even a total moron like me can be right every once and awhile.

--------------------
Jara

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LoisCane
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check out visible ...the big ULL
      #8863 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:31 AM

zoom in ...last few frames real interesting...

something to keep watching

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: check out visible ...the big ULL
      #8864 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:42 AM

With all the ATL ULLs its starting to look like a Fats Domino "The Twist" dance marathon. I'll take contestants #14.

--------------------
Jara

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
Water Temps CV
      #8865 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:42 AM

Took this off of Snonut's site here..

When was the last time you saw coast of Africa that close to CV outlined in yellow.. Im sorry but think water temps are biggest part of prob out there mixed with the ever unpopular dust theory.. Figure the energy has been sucked north to England somehow... leaving our CV area...cooler than usual.

Do notice that the dry air that keeps filtering in seems to come from the north.. haven't really spent a lot of time but it seems to have a vertical tilt to it..and reappeared again after looking like it might be on vacation.

Take care.. check back much later today.. just really surprises me cause I keep waiting to see the dark reds move in and they dont..

http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sst.gif

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Latest models
      #8866 - Mon Aug 11 2003 11:17 AM

Latest run of BAMM, BAMD, LBAR, A98E much more closely aligned between Keys and Ft. Lauderdale.

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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8867 - Mon Aug 11 2003 11:23 AM

The Subject of colder water along the east coast of Florida has been raised several times. It seems a lot of people have a hard time with the idea that it's real. People posting on this board with their experiences deserve consideration and to not be scoffed at. It is sometimes hard to get actual readings of conditions and often times firsthand or anocdotal evidence is all that is available.
Keep in mind that the coldest temperatures dont always cover a large area or section of the coast. The depth of the water has a lot to do with temperature with colder waters often lying beneeth the surface in layers. These layers of water with diffiering temps are called Thermoclines.

Durring MiniSeason for Lobsters at the end of July I was diving in water with a depth of around 50 ft. several miles east of the Fort Pierce inlet. Surface temps were observed to be around 72 degrees while on the bottom I was shivering with temps in the mid 50's.
Dead eels were seen by every diver in our group and my wife came across a large dead Sea Turtle. Fish were moving lethargically or huddled in groups under ledges. I understand the commercial spearfishing guys had flooded the market with grouper who were huddled up like sitting ducks. I cant say with any Scientific certainty that these things were cold water related but it is widely believed that this is true by those in the fishing and diving communities.
I have done some research and turned up a couple of links that will be of interest to those wanting more info on this subject.
This link is from NWS Melbourne:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/upwelling_2003.html

and this from Florida Marine Research Institute:
http://www.floridamarine.org/features/view_article.asp?id=20686
I am not sure what this has to do with tropical systems but it sure has been an interesting phenomena.
Still waiting for Erika.
Hurric

Edited by Hurric (Mon Aug 11 2003 11:38 AM)


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Good post Hurric...
      #8868 - Mon Aug 11 2003 12:17 PM

When we were in drought from the last intense La Nina (drought lasted about 30 months here), they actually found sea horses in Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. No way are those lakes salty (they're both usually brackish) enough to allow for those types of creatures to exist, but there they were. So I would have to agree that animals and/or marine life will offer clues as to what's going on.

As for the tropics today, trof still sinking into the Gulf of Mexico. Wave energy (from what I believe is actually 2 waves) could be entraining some heat energy as speculated on Friday. This won't happen until Tomorrow and Wed. Some model support (00z AVN) wanting to form something weak off the TX Coast and move it NNE up through western Louisiana. As further speculated on Friday and Saturday, this would be weak if anything develops, but it's going to bring some rain in somewhere in the NW Gulf. Looks like the future Erika continues west or just south of due west. As also hinted at by me Friday, it looks like it could be a FL then TX system. How strong it could get is highly debatable. If it continues to move at 20-25, I don't see much potential. But it wouldn't be a stretch to see at least a strong tropical storm (if not a Cat-1) bearing down on S TX by the weekend.

SOI is back heavily positive. It began this trend a few days ago. So if one looks 15-20 days down the line, US Trof amplification (and the opening up of the Eastern Gulf and East Coast of the US for tropical mischief) should be between the 23-26th of the month. Bastardi (who's got the [tm] on this teleconnection) believes it will be around the 25th. He thinks western lakes or Norther Rockies. That means when the ridges hook up again or if the Atlantic Ridge goes solo, next time it flattens, it should be pretty far into the interior south east.

As always, time will tell.

Steve


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Good post Hurric...
      #8869 - Mon Aug 11 2003 12:26 PM

Correction on Bastardi's SOI comments: "SOI FLIP INDICATES NEXT AMPLIFICATION AFTER 20TH, PROBABLY AROUND 25TH "

Looking back at the SOI table:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

The index went back positive on the 6th then flip-flopped a couple of days. It's often an indicator that a trof will be carved out in the US 15-20 days after. It's a weaker signal when it hedges back and forth, but the last 3 days have been strongly positive. I would interpret that to mean the possibility of a fairly strong trof hanging out at least 3-5 days the next time it amplifies.

Just wanted to clear that up.

Steve


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8870 - Mon Aug 11 2003 03:00 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

definitely different look from the first frame

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Dale
Unregistered




Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8871 - Mon Aug 11 2003 03:14 PM

Actually, to me those last few frames make it look even more like a disorganized ULL than the NRL and NHC satellite images make it look. Looks like just disorganized daytime heating convection that pops up and then disappears around ULL's, but who knows, maybe I'm wrong and it's the start of something.

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8872 - Mon Aug 11 2003 03:37 PM

Think there's a lower level spin, but seems that its outrunning any organizing convection, and heading SW, with the mid level getting left in the dust. Does anyone have a handle on this?? Seems like Florida will dodge another system as this should head through hurricane alley and into the GOM. CAn't seem to get a normal storm out there anymore. What's up with that???

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8873 - Mon Aug 11 2003 03:53 PM

Could you please give me a definition of what a "normal" tropical system is? The reason they are fun to watch is that they normally do the abnormal.

I think 91L is moving into the much more favorable area that has caused the TPC to be so adamant in its optimism about this system. It will be over high SSTs and in a calm upper level enviroment between all the ULLs and the Bermuda High. If the system deepens, then the LLC should take care of itself but it does appear to be a quick system with the Keys all over it. I would prefer Havana where it could make Castro choke on his stoogie.

A thought about this system if it were to develop. Systems that approach from 91Ls direction tend to follow odd paths judging from some of the past historical tracks. Loop-t-loops are not out of the question with systems like these. Could be fun?!

--------------------
Jara

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: What's This
      #8874 - Mon Aug 11 2003 03:56 PM

Looks like that little swirl that you found is starting to swirl a little more. Lots of things seems to be spinning...and thank goodness not much organizing.

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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8875 - Mon Aug 11 2003 04:25 PM

From the 2:00pm discussion.
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL TO W ATLC HAS SLOWLY WORKED ITS
WAY TO THE SURFACE WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NWD OVER THE ATLC
ALONG 65W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WEAKENS AND A E/W
RIDGE TAKES SHAPE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ENHANCED WIND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AT 15-20 KT.


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane History Revised
      #8876 - Mon Aug 11 2003 04:33 PM

For you history buffs, here's an interesting link to some changes in the NHC's historical record. For the first time, information from the 1850's to early 1900's begins to correlate with the idea of busy active periods and slow periods that we talk about today. Take a gander:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s2005.htm


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8877 - Mon Aug 11 2003 04:43 PM

Normal meaning a wave, than a TD. then a TS, then a hurricane. The past few years we've witnessed surface circulations outrunning their convection, multiple centers reforming in the oddest places; systems that are in a great environment but don't develop; SYstems that develop out of miserable conditions. I've been following hurricanes for a long time. Something besides shear and low SSTs seems to be affecting them. Not sure what, but they've changed in the way they develop/not develop.

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8878 - Mon Aug 11 2003 05:10 PM

I absolutely agree with you Steve. Even the ones that do develop seem to do so in odd ways. Remember Lefty Lenny? Or Iris the 20 mi wide hurricane? It seems like we haven't seen a true Cape Verde monster hurricane since Floyd. I even remember an 'E' storm a few years back ripped to shreds in a matter of hours over the Dominican.

I have wondered for a while if there was some type of climatological correlation--such as the big Azores high becoming too strong due to certain conditions that would otherwise be favorable to development. It's what makes me go hmmm?


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alan
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8879 - Mon Aug 11 2003 05:26 PM

Thank you Hurric for the outstanding post on the frigid water on the east coast.
When I posted the 59 degree reading, I was told no way.
I knew I wasn't making it up. Those were great articles. Apparently, the water has started to warm a bit. Now the surf temp is up to 66 degrees.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8880 - Mon Aug 11 2003 06:08 PM

I wasn't being critical. I hear ya and that is just what I mean. Agreed, there are storms that follow the "climatology" and act as historically expected, but my point was that we have become a bit lulled by all the technological hub-bub that appears to have made tropical systems seem to be easy to predict as we all know there not. You hear hurricanes described as being like a top. A spinning top is anything but predictable. Maybe this season is a reminder lesson.

The last few years we have seen the Cape Verde storms do alot of fish spinning and I think that is in direct conflict with the idea of a strong Bermuda High. We have had a couple of El Nino years that even when abating, margonlized a some of the non-El Nino seasons We have also seen a persistent western African shore High that is infused dry air into the CV islands.

I guess I'm saying that a persistent Bermuda High, should produce a possibility of the type of wave trains we saw in the early 90's.

Of course I maybe just full of horse dung. What do you think?

--------------------
Jara

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Kevin
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Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8881 - Mon Aug 11 2003 07:14 PM

I'll give you guys an overview of what the high pressure pattern has been like since 1998:
1998: Featured a very weak Azores High, thus, we experienced numerous CV developments. However, all of these curved away from the US with the exception of Georges.
1999: A normal Azores High, a severely bad timing for cold fronts. Think about this: Dennis, once viewed as a fairly significant threat to the US, formed just east of the Bahamas. Not a Cape Verde Storm. Floyd was the only CV storm to reach the US in 1999...and he formed around 45W if I am correct. When I am thinking about true long trackers, I think of ones forming from 30-35W. Floyd was almost recurved as well, just barely missing a trough that was approaching from the north. Take Floyd out and you have a much calmer 1999 hurricane season.
2000: Year of the TUTT. If the TUTT wasn't as strong as it was, the US would have likely taken a beating from Debby (should have been Andrew, part 2), a hit from Joyce, and perhaps a brush from Chris. The overall high presure pattern really hadn't changed much from 1999.
2001: A very strong Azores High didn't allow a whole lot in the way of CV development or US hits in 2001. In addition, there was a large weakness from 50-60W because of the gap between the Azores High and the Bermuda High.
2002: Dry air, shear, and a similar Azores High position (actually, less favorable for development than in 2001) to 2001 led to very little in the way of any marked CV activity affecting the US. Of course, Lili did form quite a ways out. However, the El Nino shear kept the storm in check through much of it's life, until it reached the GOMEX. In addition, El Nino years don't statisically favor much in the way of EC activity.
2003: So far--strong and favorable Bermuda High along with some occasional shifts in the NAO, thus the trough position/strength changes along the EC throughout the summer. The Azores High has been slightly above average and in a normal position. There has also been several occasions featuring an eroded Azores High. As long as the dry air ushers out, which it should do, I see a far greater risk of a US SE landfalling hurricane this season. With the current setup, I don't see how one could argue this extensively.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: The Cold Zone
      #8882 - Mon Aug 11 2003 07:24 PM

Thanks for your post Hurric - it was something that needed to be said. The article put together by NWS Melbourne is worth reading. This near shore zone of cold surface temperatures is probably not wide enough to have much of an impact on any fast moving system, but its certainly worth noting. I normally don't like to support one position over another, but one of the things that I don't care for is when knowledgeable contributors downplay the novice who is submitting an honest report. Some of our posters took some un-necessary flack when they first reported this upwelling event - and this should not have happened. Its okay to correct mistakes or correct errors in data interpretation - as long as you are sure that they are really 'errors'. I can verify a report of 59 degrees in the Canaveral area at the end of July. Mighty chilly - and very unusual. Its not just a Florida phenomenon - extends all the way to Cape Hatteras. (okay, enough of my soapbox.)
Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Cold Zone
      #8883 - Mon Aug 11 2003 07:42 PM

Nicely put Ed. Let me put this out there... more that likely nothing to get excited but some bouy reports show falling pressures just off TX/LA coast. I watched this yesterday and in the evening it would drop slightly and come back up.. as you would expect. Tonight them seem to drop a little farther. Come on, hit me with it

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin24
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Re: Hurricane History Revised
      #8884 - Mon Aug 11 2003 08:42 PM

Clyde like the post on the Hurdat report interesting material.The other maybe qudos to Coop if he is right on these pressure falls.Reports out that show slow development might come about there in the next 48 hrs.The system out E has a tough road ahead of it.The system is totally enveloped by dry air even more so now.Development will be slow in coming .I agree that this system will have to hit that 70W line to gain some significant life.This is where the moisture begins.Having said something for the first time in days the little girl shall humble me.They always make you out to be a liar don't they.By the the way where is FrankP?

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stormchazer
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Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8885 - Mon Aug 11 2003 09:03 PM

I see where your coming from, but we are confusing the strong Azore High and the Bermuda Highs strength which I was refering to. I cut the following from the "Independant Weather Network"

http://www.independentwx.com/Season/20031.html

IV. Azores High

The Azores High is a crucial factor for tropical cyclone development in the Mean Development Region. When a strong high is observed, Mean Development Region activity tends to be surpressed, as it causes cooler temperatures, more subsidence, and a surpressed equatorial trough. The Azores High was strong last season, making it one of 2002's many inhibitors for low latitude development. A weak Azores High, on the other hand, enhances formation in the Mean Development Region. So far this spring, the high has been running very close to average in strength. We judge the Azores High as a neutral factor for this upcoming Cape Verde season.


V: Bermuda High

The Bermuda High is one of the most crucial factors when forecasting east coast landfalls. A strong Bermuda High can cause tropical storms to move too far west to avoid land before curving out to sea. A weak Bermuda High allows a large trough to move into the east, blocking the coast from dangerous hurricanes. Over the past three years, we have seen a strong trough protecting the east coast. Keep in mind that there is usually less trough activity during La Nina events, which we expect this year. Furthermore, as already mentioned in our sea surface temperature anomaly section, the Bermuda High has been quite strong this past winter and so far this Spring. Thus, a stronger Bermuda High and less trough activity off the United States east coast is in the forecast.

I got the above excerpt from :

2003 Extended Range Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Written and published
by Kevin Budd, Rob Mann, and Jason Moreland
As of May 25, 2003

As I said, the subsidence that has been present off the African coast has suppressed CV development. I admit I didn't know, but I would think that subsidence is a product of a strong Azore High but this does not preclude the Bermuda High still supporting landfalling CV hurricanes.

--------------------
Jara

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Frank P
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yo Javlin
      #8886 - Mon Aug 11 2003 09:06 PM

Jav, been busy getting ready for my (only) daughter's wedding this weekend... Oh I've been watching the tropics for sure... especially since the wedding is this Saturday.... and checking in on the board periodically for my updates and to see what everyone was posting..... fortunately it has been quiet and I'm keeping my fingers crossed, so far so good.... if there was ever a time I didn't want a tropical system to hit Biloxi, this is the weekend for sure... things look really good so far too.. I don't see anything out there that could cancel the wedding, that was my main concern... I can deal with rain and wind... but a cancellation would be tough to swallow... and quite costly...

tropicals all-in-all have been quiet the past several weeks... I just need five more days... believe me, I was really sweating things earlier in the summer when everything went crazy with all the early season action...I didn't like the idea of a wedding at the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season... but try explaining that to the wife and daugher... yeah right...However, I do expect things to pick up possibly by the end of the month... but nothing for this weekend!!!!

I think a wedding event is like going through a Cat 3 storm, at least for the father of the bride... I know its as expensive as one.... hehe



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clyde w.
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Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8887 - Mon Aug 11 2003 09:21 PM

Hey Kevin,

Thanks for the Azores High clarification. I tend to give ideas without a lot of hard facts...its good to see some analysis on the board...wish I had more time to do the same.


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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Re: last several frames show something *might* be happening
      #8888 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:34 PM

I very much agree "something" is changing with the way the Earth is producing weather.
I think that in our lifetime we will witness "life changing" events in our enviroment.
You know how they say, "Mother Nature finds away"
As we all know, everything has to "balance", and as we push our planet and it's resources to it's limit, we can only hope that we prevail through her backlash.
Soap Box is free now...


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8889 - Mon Aug 11 2003 10:36 PM

We are all gulity of that I think at one time or another. As far as my pressure falls... most seem to have to gone steady or rise so maybe nothing at all. but I still will keep an eye on that

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: The Four Corners - Plus One
      #8890 - Mon Aug 11 2003 11:17 PM

Probably nothing ,but is this the wave to enter the GOM late tomorrow at 20N 86W.Zoom in on WV.

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8891 - Mon Aug 11 2003 11:19 PM

Hey Coop, the GFS still likes the North Central GOM for development. Let's see what happens in the next couple of days. Congrats Frank to your family and daughter. My daughter got married 4 years ago on Dec.19th. It was a very expensive Christmas that year. You still have a full week to go,all kind of last minute expenses. It's taken me 4 years to pay off wedding expenses, but as I look back on her special day, I would not have changed a thing. It's your day too!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8892 - Tue Aug 12 2003 12:11 AM

Really excellent analysis Kevin..enjoyed reading it through a few times.. thank you.

And..Hurric.. would still like to understand what is causing the upwelling effect. Find it interesting in a year when the water up in the NE ATlantic HAS to be bubbling the water in the SW Atlantic has cool pools of water..

and lastly.. KEVIN... GET OVER IT
it was a Tied Game.. a done deal... because it was pre-season they went for the 2 points.. and therefore to throw numbers around as a victory is correct but not really right in the real spirit of it all...cause if it had been reg season you know fins would have kicked the extra point..had it gone into Overtime and as the Fins were on the roll and the energy had shifted they most likely would have won in OT but it was preseason... so they went for the 2 points and played it out.. but for all other intensive purposes it was a Tie Game.. wouldn't see any real victory in such a win.. was forfeited to them by the Fins giving up the extra point.. waiting for our preseason to be over and enter the real CV season

Bobbi


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Shan
Verified CFHC User


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New Here
      #8893 - Tue Aug 12 2003 12:52 AM

I just wanted to introduce myself. I found this site last year and have been following the threads/posts this year. I've learned quite a bit from all of you but there is still so much to learn! I've had a facination with storms since 'ole Freddy in 1979! I'm on the Alabama coast near Mobile. I look forward to getting to know each of you and learning even more!

Shan

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Previous ATL high pressure patterns...for the record...
      #8894 - Tue Aug 12 2003 06:12 AM

It's worth keeping an eye on. There is a 1010mb out there now but who knows... we will see

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Loc: EC Florida
TD finally developing?
      #8895 - Tue Aug 12 2003 06:13 AM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120917
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORMING ABOUT
275 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Thunderstorm activity is increasing this morning around the LLC...just watched IR loop. In addition, the convection we have is finally fairly strong. Let's watch it...recon scheduled to go in this afternoon.

Should be interesting to see what's going on when I get home.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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91L Development...
      #8896 - Tue Aug 12 2003 06:16 AM

Hi Shan and welcome to the board...

91L loks like it may have a go at developing a bit more today. The upper level environment is reasonable ahead of it, and like the NHC has stated, the shower activity has increased. Unfortunately visible imagery is not available yet to see if there is any low level circualtion, but IR imagery does hint at it. Microwave imagery also indicates surface winds in the range of 25 knots, with a small area of around 30 knots near the possible centre. Recon should be out there later today to give us a better idea of whats going on, but visible imagery will show us before then.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Keep Awake Florida!!
      #8897 - Tue Aug 12 2003 06:30 AM

Everyone on the east coast of Florida needs to pay attention today. If the plane goes out today and finds something, tropical storm watches/warnings will probably go up immediately, since the storm will be only 36 hours away at that time. Our local marine forecast calls for winds 20-25 knots and 6-8 ft seas later wednesday. All subject to increasing change.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 91L Development...
      #8898 - Tue Aug 12 2003 06:36 AM

Thanks Toni, now to the tropics...

Convection is a little bit better on 91L this am.. not ready to say its a prime time player yet but right now it's as good as its ever looked. Models still take in on a bee line west. Forward motion a little to fast for any significant development... seems like they all want to haul butt this season...

Edited by Frank P (Tue Aug 12 2003 06:45 AM)


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 91L Development...
      #8899 - Tue Aug 12 2003 07:31 AM

Thsi area east of the Bahamas has a lot of activity to the north of it. Since the ridge over south Florida is to move to north FLorida during the day and the ULL east of Jamaica remains rather strong, will that allow 91L to move a bit north of west as it gets into the Bahamas? This is something I am concerned about. Likely it will go due west, and I've posted that it will miss the peninsula, but now I'm not quite so sure. Thoughts?? Cheers!!

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Frank P
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Re: 91L Development...
      #8901 - Tue Aug 12 2003 07:48 AM

The vis sat loops on the system are showing a basically due west movement in the past hour or so... convection continues to build to the north of the center and with much higher cloud tops... looks to be getting a little better organized over time.. still moving too fast IMO for any rapid development... but we just might have something worth watching

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Tropics Guy
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Re: 91L Development...
      #8902 - Tue Aug 12 2003 07:52 AM

NOAA now has their storm floater on it, convection is building up rather nicely, South Floridians should definetly keep an eye on it today as it could build rapidly, SST's are prime, and shear is relatively low.

Tropics Guy

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: 91L Development...
      #8903 - Tue Aug 12 2003 08:14 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

Look out Southern MS and AL later this morning. I lost power in the middle of a long post, so I'm not going to risk it again. But some of the trof appears to be lifiting through the GC this morning. The storms have been loud and full of rain. I'm betting on 2" by the end of rush hour - nothing major, but nasty. It's possible the northern extremity of the forerunning wave could be setting off some of this energy, because this isn't the time of day it usually rains here in the summer. Anyway, we'll have to see if the rest of it hooks up with the remainder of the trof off the upper texas coast and forms anything. It would be weak, but it likely would call at least rainfall like what I'm seeing today.

91L looks better than ever. Setup remains for a FL hit then a track basically west across the Gulf. No call on intensity yet, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is at least a dual tropical storm hit.

Steve


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Frank P
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Re: 91L Development...
      #8904 - Tue Aug 12 2003 08:19 AM

Appears that some of the convection is trying to build around what I hint is the center of rotation... shear is minor off to the north of the system.. ULL to the SSW is causing some shear on the southern part of the rotation. Center appears to be at 23.3N and 70.6 W. Latest sat pix shows that convection builing around the center.. certainly getting better organized from looking at the sat pixs, but they don't always tell the whole story.

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Jim M
Unregistered




Re: 91L Development...
      #8905 - Tue Aug 12 2003 08:56 AM

Certainly still only low level circulation. Storms on top don't appear to have an rotation at all right now. If that starts chaning, devolpment could be pretty rapid. I still think no more then a Tropical Storm if it does get going. TD more likely. However, looks like another rainmaker for Florida. have a shopvac the size of a state? My place is a boggy swamp.

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Brett
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Thoughts?
      #8906 - Tue Aug 12 2003 09:05 AM

Hiya all -

Been watching and reading. A quick question for the gurus. Assuming (big assumption) that the pattern of the last month is broken, and 91L actually becomes a TD, given its current distance from the East coast of Florida, and its rapid forward speed...realistically, what is your best guess on intensity? I know the SST's are very warm in the Straits, but isn't it too close already to cause too many problems? Or could it blow up?

Curious, because I have no supplies yet here in Miami.

Thanks

Brett

--------------------
South Florida


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Frank P
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Re: Thoughts?
      #8907 - Tue Aug 12 2003 09:11 AM

Brett, 91L has plenty of warm open water to work with... forward speed, if its at 20mph, is a little to fast for my liking for any rapid development... should it slow down a little and shear to the SSW let up, anything is possible... certainly would like to see some high pressure over the system... IMO TS status is possible even at its current speed if it continues to develop... but we've seen them start the process only to fizzle out in the long run... maybe this one will end the streak...

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StormHound
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Re: Thoughts?
      #8908 - Tue Aug 12 2003 09:11 AM