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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9101 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:39 PM

Just trying to state what the NHC said there. Multiple... pick one and go with it

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 13 2003 10:42 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9102 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:42 PM

Local Met. Channel 6/39 says that NHC says they will not name the system at 11pm...because of multiple centers...and that it could form anytime.

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9103 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:43 PM

Please don't take offense, I didn't by no means mean it like that...I just didn't know that, that happened. I had read the report (the attached link) and was hoping for enlightment.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9104 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:47 PM

Bob Breck (Fox8 met in N.O., and best in the region) mentioned the multiple centers. He also showed "computer guidance" (not sure which model) that held 91L as an open wave through the Gulf at least until South of LA. Guidance showed some showers south of Lake Pontchartrain but he said the Gulf would be squashed by the high building in from the north and the east. I completely disagree with that analysis, though I'm not sure any showers will be sneaking in from the NE in our area. Nonetheless, the Gulf will be a dangerous place the rest of the week. A Petroleum Helicopters Inc. chopper crashed into the Gulf today with 5 on board (leaving the rigs and heading for Intracoastal City). 3 were found (2 alive) and 2 are still missing.

That's about all the news out of here. Time to go view some loops.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9105 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:50 PM

The NHC has its hands full! Don't want to cause panic.... don't want a "lack of early warning" either. S FL may see some TS gusts but I don't think it will be that bad. Nothing the STDS won't cover. All that pay attention should be OK on this. The ride in the GOM will probably be the tell tell of this thing.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Some Answers
      #9106 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:55 PM

The WSR88D antenna mounted on a 40 foot tower, scanning at a one degree elevation angle, has a center beam height of 1,500 feet at a distance of 25 miles. I'll let you folks figure out how high the beam is at a distance of 150 miles - its way up there - so the radar at that range may be seeing a circulation, but its not seeing a low-level circulation. (sorry if I got carried away - I helped to design the thing)

Regarding the SW LLC - yep, it probably is.

Regarding all of the interest (and good interest by the way) on this little Invest - gosh, whats the name of this site? (sorry HF, couldn't resist - I did enjoy the humor).

and yes, I believe that the latest convective burst might be something akin to a CDO - but it would need to maintain itself if that were the case - it certainly seems to be the core of the system.

Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Some Answers
      #9107 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:02 PM

Damn Ed! Thanks, that is why I put the Kevlar on

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Jamie-on-dabyu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lafitte, LA
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9108 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:02 PM

Hey Steve,and everyone else as always I love reading everyone's post here, I don't post much just read cause I am still learning. Question for you Steve. What did Bob Breck mean by that? does he think the system will not develope? Or he does not think it will go to Texas?

Thanks
Jamie


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Hey Jamie...
      #9109 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:06 PM

Actually he clarified it a little in the sign off before Seinfeld came on. He said it would squash any chance of it coming up this way (which we knew) keeping it heading west. He did note the blowup this evening, the compact nature and the possibility of Palm Beach getting rocked - but said conditions would at worst, at worst (2x) be tropical storm.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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lisagolias
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9110 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:09 PM

In the past seasons I've seen TS shrink in size just before they move up a cat. Could this be happening right now based on the most recent IR, & WV images I see


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9111 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:11 PM

From the Miami NWS:
...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 50
MPH IN SQUALLS WITH POWER OUTAGES REPORTED AROUND THE ISLAND.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9112 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:12 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Note the last couple of frames where some dark red appears. I doubt it's a vortex, but it's a red dot in there - obviously something the IR is picking up on.

Also, NWS out of Melbourne appears to be the closest gov't radar site.

Melbourne Radar

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9113 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:17 PM

Steve--one other thing to note, then I'm off to bed--check out the water vapor loop when you get a chance. Notice that dry air is beginning to impinge on the system from the north. In the IR you posted, I notice that outflow is beginning to be restricted in the northern semi-circle.

What this means for development is beyond me, but it's interesting to note anyway.


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Jim M
Unregistered




Re: Interesting note
      #9114 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:21 PM

This little gem was in an updated forecast discussion from Melbourne:

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2003

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH OVER GRAND
BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLANDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE WINDS
MAY AFFECT THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COASTLINES AROUND DAYBREAK.



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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9115 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:22 PM

Steve that is interesting can the MLC super impose itself on top of the LLC.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
interesting
      #9116 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:25 PM

But while the Keys were still enveloped in the pall of their greatest tragedy, in little more than a month the fourth hurricane of that year of 1935 had made a strange hairpin turn up from its origin in the Sea of Colombia toward Haiti and Jamaica and down again to be dissipated against the mountains behind Honduras. It caused great land damage and 150 deaths. Florida paid little attention, however, until an a even more, freakish hurricane, October 30 to November 1, started up east of Bermuda where no hurricanes have ever, been known to begin. Perhaps it was a storm that grew into a hurricane as it came crazily south past the Carolinas to the Bahamas, and then on a straight line to Florida where it scared the wits out of Miami before crossing the state and, out in the Gulf, looping back to Tampa. Its damage was not great but Florida people took toll for the wear and tear on their nerves, so soon after the Keys disaster, by calling it 'the Yankee hurricane.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9117 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:30 PM

Steve.. just really went back and read what you said.. a long day, sorry. I do agree with you to disagree. I would have to go back and check each model very carefully to see what he is talking about.... but most are down so it must be the GFS or an AVN/GFS blend. I will explore in the am. We know the ridge will dictate 91L but the GOM.... got to wait and see

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9118 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:31 PM

Steve,

There is NWS radar out of Miami, which is the link I posted earlier ( KAMX ) it shows more detail than the Melbourne radar, its closer

I think the overall center of this mess is to the SW, but it is still disorganized which is why the NHC has not classified it yet. Tomorrow morning should be interesting for us here in South Florida, wet for sure, and plenty windy.

Bill


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bobbi
Unregistered




Thanks Robert...
      #9120 - Wed Aug 13 2003 11:54 PM

STorms do some crazy things..don't they?

So far this one has been predictable.. will see how the evening goes down here in South Florida

Bobbi


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9121 - Thu Aug 14 2003 12:20 AM

Looks like the center is tracking towards northern Broward or southern Palm Beach county., shows up nicely on the NWS Miami radar short range loop.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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