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Depression-Like Low Stuck over South TX. Torrential rains, Flash Flooding, Gusts to 40 MPH, isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts continue
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: low level circulation forming?
      #9163 - Thu Aug 14 2003 02:52 PM

I'd have to agree that a depression may finally be forming. From the visibles, I tend to look for tell-tale signs of cumulus streaming into the center. I'm beginning to notice that where the MLC is. Just south of the cluster you can see some of these cumulus streams moving, albeit only slightly, back to the west, or northwest. Since these clouds are at a lower altitude than the convection that is usually picked up so nicely on IR, I'm willing to take a gamble and say we should see a named entity by 11 tonight, perhaps as early as 5.

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J.J.
Unregistered




Re: low level circulation forming?
      #9164 - Thu Aug 14 2003 03:23 PM

W FL LOW looks good...good divergence, a nice anticyclone aloft, low shear, warm SSTs...I'd be surprised to not see a depression very soon. I'll give it a PFD of 7 out of 7 for the next 24 hours...

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Palm Bay Florida report
      #9165 - Thu Aug 14 2003 03:33 PM

If the LLC is forming At 26N then this is almost 200 miles off track of the models.the other point is that the effect of the ULL will be lessened then how does that affect the track.Anyone got a link they know of a dummy can read on the high pressure ridge,appreciated

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: another ULL?
      #9166 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:03 PM

Whats the swirl in the Atlantic around 28N 50W, is it another ULL which is trying to work it's way down to the surface?

Tropics Guy

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: another ULL?
      #9167 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:14 PM

system in the GOM looks to be wrapping around nicely on the vis loop, good presentation... If we ever get the LLC confirmed its going to be more north than prediced by the models... and perhaps move the system up the lower coast of TX down the road... ..... also appears to be hauling butt...probably riding on the edge of the big high pressure ridge off to the north... still needs to slow down somewhat but I think it should be classified soon... IMO..ridge should prevent any impact to northern gulf coast... however, lower to central texas needs to start getting ready for another system... I agree with Steve, I would not be surprised to see this get to at least a Cat 1... provided it does slow down somewhat...

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
recon found SW wind
      #9168 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:18 PM

2 recent recon reports of SW winds:

At 348 est, 26.2/84.0 had flight level winds of 21.85 mph at 220 degrees

At 308 pm est, 26.0/83.8 had flight level winds of 13.8 mph at 200 degrees.

I note that the 308 pm reading was at almost 5000 feet, but the later reading was close to the surface (I think around 500 or 600 feet). So I believe that supports a conclusion that there is now a westward component at the surface, and likely a new LLC. However, I think they'll probably confirm that with another reading before making that conclusion.

Anyone smarter or more experienced re: tropical weather than I am (those 2 categories basically include everyone most of you get in under the "smarter" prong), please tell me if I'm misinterpreting the significance of that data.


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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
NRL
      #9169 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:20 PM

NRL has 08 No name must be TD

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: NRL
      #9170 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:24 PM

FNMOC has it labelled as 08L ERIKA

NRL has it labelled as 08L NONAME but with 35 knots winds... looks like we will see it actually classified within the next hour or so by the NHC...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Alex
Unregistered




west winds
      #9171 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:26 PM

Yes, as far as I know, a wind from the west means that the circulation is closed. However, I do not know about if the wind is from the Sw, but I believe that means it is either closed or very near to it.

It appears we have our depression. Will she become Erika? Where will she go?


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: recon found SW wind
      #9172 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:27 PM

Brad--I think that's significant. And like Gary stated, NRL has 08No Name. That's almost a guarantee of TD status. I'm going to go check out the UM Weather Underground. They post NHC updates before almost anyone. I'll let you know what I find out.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: recon found SW wind
      #9173 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:33 PM

Appears certain it'll be classified - I think NW winds have also been found now, too. Curious how fast it will spin up; it is still moving fairly quickly.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: recon found SW wind
      #9174 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:41 PM

well I'm going to agree with the models on this system, especially with the high pressure ridge to the north... its still on a bee line due west... as I've said earlier hauling butt too... does show some nice outflow in the ne quadrant of the system... TX/MX border perhaps, give or take 100 miles...very similiar condition setting up as with Claudette, although she did go a little farther north than most models predicted, but not all that much off... I do think it needs to slow down if its going to reach hurricane status, of which I think its certainly got a shot...... this might just be the easiest one of the three GOM storms this season to forecast... just gotta love them blocking highs over the northern GOM... especially with a big wedding on Saturday... amen...

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Bill
Unregistered




ERIKA
      #9175 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:50 PM

As of 1400 TODAY---40 mph, moving west at 21--looks to be going to TX.

IHS,

Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14
      #9176 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:53 PM

Just to be clear.

IHS,

Bill


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Non-Weather Bulletin
      #9177 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:56 PM

Yeah, sorry I got distracted. There is a major breaking news story on CNN. Power is out in all of the northeast, much of the midwest and much of southern canada. Reason not completely known yet. You may want to take a break from Erika and check it out.

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14
      #9178 - Thu Aug 14 2003 04:57 PM

NOte upgrade was at 1600, not 1400--sorry.

Here is the discussion #1:
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2003



a reconnaissance plane currently investigating the area of disturbed
weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has found a small poorly
defined circulation with winds of 47 knots at 1000 feet to
the north of the developing center. A dropsonde measured a minimum
pressure of 1011 mb and a northwest wind about 300 feet above the
surface....with no data available from below. The information from
the plane in combination with the well-defined signature on both
satellite and radar...supports upgrading the system to Tropical
Storm Erika at this time. The outflow is well established and shear
is forecast to remain low. Therefore...a gradual strengthening is
indicated in agreement with the SHIPS intensity forecast model. It
should be noted that only a small increase in intensity could bring
Erika inland as a Hurricane.
Erika is moving westward at 18 knots. There is a persistent strong
high pressure system over the south central United States providing
a westward steering to the tropical cyclone. Therefore...Erika
should continue westward until landfall either in southern Texas or
northern Mexico in about 36 to 48 hours. This is consistent with
most of the track models.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/2100z 26.2n 84.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.9w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1800z 26.0n 92.0w 55 kt
36hr VT 16/0600z 26.0n 95.0w 60 kt
48hr VT 16/1800z 26.0n 97.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 17/1800z 26.0n 105.0w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/1800z...dissipated








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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14
      #9179 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:00 PM

Last few loops of the IR show some significant convection developing near and around the center... so it looks like some strengthening should occur overnight, provided it doesn't out run its convection... expected to hit lower texas or northern MX late friday or early saturday... so they don't expect it to slow down much.... pressure still relatively high... but at least they named the darn thing... it was perhaps one of the best developed no named system in recent years...

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Alex
Unregistered




Other noteworthy area
      #9180 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:02 PM

I know we're all excited with the formation of our new tropical storm, but there is another tropical area that bears watching-a new low off Africa. It is defined as a low, and the convection has survived the plunge into the Atlantic.

As for Erika-I agree with the forcast that her into South Texas


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14
      #9181 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:03 PM

pressure down to 1009.... with latest recon... I would expect to slowly fall over night... conditions good for further development.... all its fighting now is its speed... and with the big ridge shoving it to the west.. I don't think its going to slow down or change course.... west is best... sorry you lower Tx folks...

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
TS Erika
      #9182 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:27 PM

Well after keeping us waiting she finally closed off a surface circulation! I, like many of you, see no reason for her not to strengthen, except for her own forward motion. Also agree with the forecast track, taking her inland late Saturday near the US / MX border. However, her intensity i am a little less sold on! Personally, i reckon we may see this one intensify quite quickly, probably landfalling as a strong Category 1 storm, similiar in strength to Claudette i reckon. Any thoughts?

Also, the wave / low off Africa does bear watching, with some banding features already present!

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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