Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is mostly quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Michael) , Major: 7 (Michael) Florida - Any: 7 (Michael) Major: 7 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
They Must Be Getting Tired at the NHC...
      #9250 - Fri Aug 15 2003 11:00 PM

LOL...I thought we got rid of Claudette last month! Sorry, a moment of levity in a serious situation.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT CLAUDETTE HAS DEVELOPED
A ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST
EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE
CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AT 700 MB. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.


Edited by clyde w. (Fri Aug 15 2003 11:01 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Track
      #9251 - Fri Aug 15 2003 11:16 PM

>>Let's go back to where we first started following this storm near 30 N and 45 W. Who would have guessed a landfalling hurricane would ever hit South Texas..

I wouldn't have. West GOM systems don't usually come from 30/45. I don't pay much attention to that part of the Atlantic unless HankFrank gives me a heads up that something's out there.

There are some cool aspects about Erika - where she formed (and especially where she formed relative to her track), the track itself riding 26N, the organizational structure, speed of movement, effects on Florida and Texas, etc.

Although she's quickly running out of time, I'm interested to see what she's got for landfall.
-------------------------------------------------
Anyone who hasn't looked at Africa and the East Atlantic lately owes themself a look.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Happy Birthday HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Track
      #9253 - Fri Aug 15 2003 11:50 PM

i went fishing for a similar track, couldn't find one quite like it. a storm in 1934 formed off hatteras, crossed central fl, and hit s texas.. but probably another example of a piece of trough energy diving into the tropics and giving us such a system. there might be one in the pre-1886 archive, but i'm tired of loading page after page of unisys archives. TD 4 in august 2000, the infamous one-thunderstorm depression also had similar origins and general track.
staying with my track philosophy on erika, timing of landfall should be 6-7am cdt.. intensity 70kt or so. needs more than another eight hours to intensify much more, and there is some impinging NE shear. as far as bastardi's idea about storms crossing perpendicular to the coast tightening... if that's going to be the case we'd still probably see a cat 1.
other basin features are relatively unchanged to how they looked earlier. no Dvorak ratings on the 25w wave, something i doubt will be the case by this time tomorrow. that would be fine by me, because if it develops far to the east then climo says better chances on it going north of the islands. at this point i'd hedge my bets on that happening. some GFS runs bring it very close to the east coast down the road, though. gray's forecast team has us down for two more storms this month. if GFS has any clue then we'll see both of them by the end of next week.
by the way, eastpac first hurricane date is now record late by a week, and counting.
HF 0354z16august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Track
      #9254 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:02 AM

Speaking of tracks, I did a little looking myself, but with the Cape Verde wave thats soon to be near 13N 30W. Of ten systems that had their start in that area, three of them affected the Islands. One noteable storm from that area was Hugo. Steve's right - Africa looks mighty busy!
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
islander
Unregistered




Re: Track
      #9255 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:07 AM

HF...thanks. Somebody agrees on what I said earlier his AM about these waves going N of the islands...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
islander
Unregistered




Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty
      #9256 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:12 AM

Yes Cyc...I'm in San Juan. Haven't noticed anybody from down here in this forum. Good to see you here...tropics seem t/b warming up.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
islander
Unregistered




Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty
      #9257 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:23 AM

Well...I just saw the 11:30 Sat pic and 25W looks pathetic.
Let's keep our att. in Erika...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
islander
Unregistered




Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty
      #9258 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:37 AM

Anybody out there??? ...think I'm gonna have some ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity
      #9259 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:54 AM

Dvorak numbers now 4.0 (supports 65 kt), I think all 3 satellite estimates are now 65 kt, and it looks good enough to be a 65 kt hurricane -- but it looks like recon still isn't finding flight-level winds to support that. I realize there isn't a great discrepency between the recon data and these estimates, but I find it fascinating that we still don't understand why with some storms such discrepencies (often greater ones) exist.

Everybody in S. Tex., N. Mex: Be safe, and good luck.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity
      #9260 - Sat Aug 16 2003 01:12 AM

Hey Brad if you go to the goes floater IF ch4 you see a nice view.Looks like an eye tring to form maybe.The CDO with dark red and 2 brown spots for some reason working around each other

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity
      #9261 - Sat Aug 16 2003 01:16 AM

I'm out time for sleep.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Track
      #9262 - Sat Aug 16 2003 06:43 AM

The AVN/GFS, Canada, NOGAPS & Ukmet all try to produce something around 14/40 @ 48 hrs

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more
      #9263 - Sat Aug 16 2003 07:51 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

It will not be this wave now in the atlantic but wave that will emerge africa that will be the one to watch as this first one will be a fish.The wave to emerge africa shortly will have a more south track and GFS develops a 1000 mb low east of the islands by the ladder part of august so let's watch how the CV season begins to crank up.

Great to have another member from Puerto Rico .Islander I came here last year around july and I found a great board with plenty of anaylisis each day and let's watch to our east from now on as the CV season is cranking up.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Aug 16 2003 07:52 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more
      #9264 - Sat Aug 16 2003 08:09 AM

Good morning all, I looked at the models yesterday and noticed what Coop is talking about. Have not had a chance to run them today. Does look like the 1st one just might be a fish spinner, but the others behind it may be ours to track for a while. In fact as memory recalls one of these systems that will track across comes real close to your neck of the wood Cyc. I know you have both eyes on the CV, and you very well should. As you pointed out it is good to have someone else from PR on this board. WELCOME ISLANDER!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Happy Birthday HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
erika verification, waves
      #9266 - Sat Aug 16 2003 08:50 AM

got close on erika. intensity slightly overdone, toss up on whether it was a hurricane at landfall. 987mb is usually paired with a marginal cat 1.. though i remember gabrielle hitting florida in sep 2001 at 980 and still being a t.s. my location was decent.. i had it a 'few' miles south of the border.. i was thinking on the order of 10. turned out to be closer to 30. C performance overall.
the waves.. already hear some people calling the first one a fish spinner. uh.. what? it hasn't even developed.. you can't make a call with any real weight until that happens. if it develops way out there then yes, it will probably go north of the islands. closer it develops, more likely it is heard from. NOGAPS is being hesitant to deepen it on more recent runs, and that i'd take with more weight than GFS. i'm still on the development wagon for now, though.
how many hurricanes went north of the islands and still hit the u.s. later? try Andrew donna and floyd for starters.. some GFS runs are bringing the leader system to just off hatteras in 10 days or so, which is remarkable in itself as GFS likes to recurve everything east of bermuda. so i think making a fish spinner call is very premature, even if it's probably not island music, even if odds are for it. GFS is a good long range tool, but it doesn't handle well intensity or exact timing of troughs if the pattern is changing.. and it is evolving. if NAO goes strongly negative again late in the month then look out, because this one will be in the neighborhood.
as for this morning there isn't much in the way of change. still disturbed weather in the sw carib that is too close to land to do anything. if any wave energy can interact with the trough that dug in behind erika off the southeast we'd have an interesting situation, but that doesn't appear to be happening. swirls in the central atlantic look about the same.. both going north and out. east atlantic waves aren't any better organized.. the one at 29w is still quite impressive but sheared from the east.. the others are devoid of convection for the most part. basin should be devoid of active systems later today.
HF 1254z16august
the strange note of the day is that some models appear to be picking up on an eastpac reflection of erika in 3 days or so. keeping my eye for the unusual trained there.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: erika verification, waves
      #9267 - Sat Aug 16 2003 09:35 AM

I did make my decision on the fish spinner based on the GFS. Just living on the edge . Hoping that if I say one thing it will do the other. Who knows it is early, but the train is comming and one of them I bet will make it across.



Here is a link to the SAL, it is very interesting as you can track Erika across the Atlantic and see how she responded to the SAL around her. Also note that the SAL is still pretty thick right off the Africian Coast but is thinning out as we look West. The loop may take a few minutes to load.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/atlsal/atlsalwavejava5.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: erika verification, waves
      #9268 - Sat Aug 16 2003 10:00 AM

I wouldn't make a decision on something that hasn't formed yet!! It is being ushered to the west in the strong easterly flow, so the chances are for developing will be better in the long term, and further west. The wave to develop behind this one (according to some models) probably will have a better chance at trekking the Atlantic. But they are only models, and this far out say that something may develop, but its track really not known with accuracy. The GFS takes both out to sea, which we know will flip-flop over the next week or two. I know what you mean though; wherever a think a system will go, it goes the other way. That's why I always say, the first place they call for landfall (models) it won't go there.....buy a house. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
islander
Unregistered




Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more
      #9269 - Sat Aug 16 2003 11:35 AM

Thanks 57497479...

Cyc, interesting discussion from SJ NWS. They insist on the second wave, with dates and everything. Let's see how the models do this time.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more
      #9270 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:09 PM

Yea, I hear ya Steve. Has anyone noticed the little flair-up in the SE GOM. Anything to be concerned about here? Just looks a little suspicious right now. Could be just a regular thunderstorm flair up.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Hey Islander
      #9271 - Sat Aug 16 2003 12:44 PM

Pleased to meet you. I'm in southeast Louisiana around New Orleans. Africa's going to spit out 4 or 5 storms in row, so I'm sure you guys (you, Cycloneye and Cycloman) will have all eyes glued to the east. It's too early for me to make a call on anything, but I'm also somewhat in the camp that says the first storm is the most likely to recurve or move north of the Islands - at least out of the first 3. We'll see.

I was halfway impressed with Erika at landfall. Banding became well defined as she cranked up pretty well the last 10 hours into landfall. As Joe B and HankFrank said, pressure was about 987 which correlates to strong TS/borderline Cat 1. I'd bet towns south of Matamoras, Mexico saw some gusts into the 80's.

I was also about 30-40 miles off on landfall which ordinarilly wouldn't be too bad except that forecast was from 8 or 9 hours before landfall and a tad high (10mph range) on the intensity. Despite the N/NE shear toward the end, Erika would have become a monster storm if not for her forward speed. If if was a splif...

I've got my doubts on the Western Caribbean. Even if nothing comes of it, I'd expect a deep tropical flow somewhere into North America (Louisiana - Florida) later in the week.

The next round of action is about 1 week away. For anyone out there who isn't prepared, I'd suggest you get your things in order over the next 7-10 days so you won't get caught with your pants down (not that it's always a bad thing ). The USA could easily see 4 or 5 more hits, so be ready. CV horses are moving into the starting gate.

Steve


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 9 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 20588

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center