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Four new areas in the Atlantic we are watching. Also, East Pac TD19 remnants bringing heavy rains to SW & SC US.
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Eduardo
Unregistered




Re: NW wind
      #9765 - Fri Aug 22 2003 06:55 PM

With this NW wind would there not be evidence that there is a closed circulation, though weak--with the west wind not found due to forward motion of the storm? In the sourthern portion of the lower pressure region, did the recon find winds from the east or just calm?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Some points:
      #9766 - Fri Aug 22 2003 06:56 PM

I perceive some kind of center of TW9 at 16.9N and 70.15W, this is from looking at PR radar and vis sat loops... still hints of a WNW motion.... sure is a nice looking wave....

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Storm Cooper
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: OK Thats IT....................
      #9767 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:00 PM

Leave town for a day on page 7 and return to find page 17. Tried to give all the posts a quick look..... as far as the open wave, just stand by

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
For the record...
      #9768 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:05 PM

I've been watching tropical systems for a long time... and after just reviewing radar, the vis sat loops and the latest IR pix... I think this is one of the finest tropical waves I've seen in a long long time... maybe this is the year of the missing west winds or something... had the same problem with Erika... interesting to see what's in store for tomorrow..

first they all wanted to haul butt... now they just don't want to develop that westerly component.. what's the deal here?

I still think this thing is going to develop... .... ....


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: For the record...
      #9769 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:09 PM

So are there any more recon observations coming out? Also, do you all predict that the system should still cross the island and head into the bahamas

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Brad in M iami
Unregistered




Re: For the record...
      #9770 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:15 PM

Plane has definitely left the system this time, but another will go out tonight.

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: For the record...
      #9771 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:25 PM

Does anyone think that the Planet Mars getting so close to earth that we can see it next to the moon, will have any effect on storms in the next two weeks? This has always interested me as to how the moon and sun spots and other astronomical effects work on the weather. Also, we are getting such rain in Central Florida that I just as soon watch Mr. Fabian wannabee go out to sea.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: For the record...
      #9772 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:28 PM

I have to side with you on that..lets give it a little time. WREL is having some problems tonight and I guess most of the day by what I have read here. As far as models go lets put it this way (as of 18Z w/ 12Z global data) 2 out of all models take this somewhere other than the GOM. Even the JMA brings it to the GOM and I never plot it except for this time. I know this will probably change but the data that I have seen is keeping a pretty close grouping to the GOM. Just need to figure out what our H will do down the road??? Sorry...3 models go other that the GOM...just plotted Trantech.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 22 2003 07:43 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: For the record...
      #9773 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:31 PM

I think its heading in a general direction that should have whatever center it has to cross the western part of the island... regardless, the island is going to feel a majority of its effects.. chance it could stay just south too .. time will tell

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Storm Cooper
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: For the record...
      #9774 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:35 PM

Mary K. I don't have enough info to speak about that but I can say that Mars was very clear last night from the beaches of Destin, FL I am 98% sure it was Mars for the record!

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: For the record...
      #9775 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:38 PM

What are you opinons on this developing an LLC later tonight. It seems very healthy to me on sat. image. What percentage would you all give to that happening?

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: For the record...
      #9776 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:41 PM

I don't think any of these models mean much until 1) there is a LLC found and 2) it gets past the 12K Mountains of Hispainola.

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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: For the record...
      #9777 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:41 PM

>>Also, do you all predict that the system should still cross the island and head into the bahamas

Who is "all"? I think you heard that mostly from east coasters around the wwww. I for one don't. General rule is the weaker the more westward. I think the odds favor a more westerly course for now. I like Cycloneye's comments from yesterday morning and Wed. night that it would be a few days until anything got revved up. And get revved up it will. It doesn't look like much, but it's just too far east right now. Too many people are expecting too much too soon. What I perceive to be the LLC is crossing 70 right now - maybe moving a bit north of due west. I wouldn't expect more than pulsing until at least 75W if not 80W. I also don't expect much interaction with Hispaniola, but it's too close to call yet. I think we'll be tracking this storm until at least Wed. or Thurs of next week. It could easily flirt wtih IH strength at some point in its life.

Sorry if there was anything to read on Page 16, but there's nothing I hate more than text scrolling off the viewing area.

Steve


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: For the record...
      #9778 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:54 PM

I myself not much... say 30% by the next TWO. I have not looked at the Recon schedule so I would say it will depend on that unless the NHC will go off of sat only info, and the sats do look good indeed but I don't think they will reverse their statement with only 6 hrs gone by. If there were some killer bouy info or ship obs then maybe but for now I doubt it

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: For the record...
      #9779 - Fri Aug 22 2003 07:56 PM

The "wave" keeps looking better and better on IR, outflow is good, symetry is good, shear seems to be relaxing, and now there's deep convection just to the east of the old LLC, wouldn't be surprised if this was one of the quickest reclassifications, maybe tonight, but more probable tomorow.
just waiting for that darn" west wind"

Tropics Guy

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Bobbi
Unregistered




a mighty fine wave... norcross in miami said...
      #9780 - Fri Aug 22 2003 08:01 PM

and may i add have not seen him like this in a long, long time...


just because it was downgraded is NOT the end of the story" brian norcross 8/22/03
he said it.. and he didn't look pleased..




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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Will it survive Hispanola?
      #9781 - Fri Aug 22 2003 08:01 PM

Is this a TD or a wave is the question tonight.With a great outflow,banding features,the MLC shows well and this is a strong wave.But I have to agree that if recon doesn't find a closed circulation they must downgrade it and that is what they did this afternoon.Talking about models at this point may be a bit premature because you dont know what kind of effect Hispanola terrain will have on the system as it may destroy it completly or it can travel south parallel to the coast and avoid those 10,000+ feet mountains.However a MLC can survive those mountains but not a LLC,And also the models have not the best iniciation as there is now clear LLC and until there is one LLC clear to follow those models will be all over the place so the best thing to do is wait for the system to pass Hispanola and after it does so we can see what is left of it to survive or it is rip for it.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: For the record...
      #9782 - Fri Aug 22 2003 08:07 PM

Good point, but try to look at it like this..... the model tracks don't always mean the track of a closed low/TC. It can be only an area of disturbed weather, but anyway... get a table, lay out all the Wx info you need to make a forecast on the direction of a "LLC" or area of interest & include intensity also if you want. Now plot and draw it out on a map... now lay it against a model plot map and I'll bet your solution will be close to at least one model solution

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: ps..yeahididforgetsomething
      #9783 - Fri Aug 22 2003 08:19 PM

The no word wrap is a bug in the software on this site.

It is caused when someone posts a string of characters (usually its a very long URL). In this case it was bobbi's long sentence without spaces that did it. It only affects the page that the message appears on. If bobbi went back and edited the message to include some spaces it would go back to "normal", at least as normal as anything ever is on this site

Bill


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
next 24hrs
      #9784 - Fri Aug 22 2003 08:24 PM

have a feeling that the system will redevelop north of hispaniola tomorrow. if it comes back.. betting on it spending a couple days in the bahamas.
surprised that things are still hesitating. basin has looked on the brink of making a few, and all we have to show is another former t.d. every season is something new and different.. this one seems to be giving us lots of closed to open depressions, and speeding unsteady tropical storms.
seeming slow right now, but to place things in perspective:
as of august 23rd of given year:
1995--J storm formed, H and I active
1996--F storm was forming, D and E active
1997--nothing, 4 storms to that point
1998--D storm formed next day, C dying B near bahamas
1999--D and E storms formed next day, C and B active
2000--A storm still in north atlantic, D storm weakening
2001--D storm opened into wave
2002--inactive, D storm formed six days later
we're still on pace with most recent years due to our early season activity. so we're still on pace for an active year.. though if we're still looking for fabian in september we'll be lagging.
HF 0027z23august


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