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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
92L / 93L
      #10083 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:01 AM

Well we have 2 invest to watch today. 92L looks very good this AM. Already looks like a TS too me, well almost. Hmmmn, maybe I should not have said that so soon. I may have just killed it!! Have a good day everyone...



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Aug 27 2003 06:03 AM)


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10084 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:27 AM

Ship reports near 92L 13.1 N 26.9 w Pressure 29.84 and falling, winds under 10Kts.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10085 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:44 AM

Both invest look good. I see that TPC has three systems listed in the Outlook with potential to develop. I think the quiet period is definately over. I'm tempted to call in sick but my mean wife says I better get my butt to work. (Just kidding Honey!)

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Alex
Unregistered




the two invests
      #10086 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:48 AM

I could potentially see a race to become TD10. Both systems look like they could win, but I'd bet on 92 because of its history of a well defined circulation.

I could also see both systems up and die because I said this.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10087 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:51 AM

I think that 92L is on the virge to be TD#10 later today as convection is concentrating near the low and the ship observations confirm the pressure falls in the area.The pending question about 92L is where it will go as it travels the atlantic.Will it be a big fish spinner or it may threat the east coast down the road? Well some models are with that thinking but of course with many days ahead it is too early for sure to say this will be a definite fish but time will tell.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10088 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:01 AM

NOGAPS shows a nice system crossing over central florida on Saturday/Sunday

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
what the......
      #10089 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:26 AM

Boy, our system north of the islands complete devoid of convection.... which was its only strong point of late.... now nothing, nada, zip, zero.... oh, it's morning, I forgot, the trend has always been no convection in the morning with all PLWs in the Caribbean... it will come back later today just to aggrevate me...

BoC also looking pretty weak.... but, there is an interesting little twist of some convection in the SE GOM... noticed yesterday there was a strong ULL in the area... this almost looks like it could be at the mid levels... won't really know till I get a look see at the vis loop....


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: what the......
      #10090 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:54 AM

I saw that too. Definitely a spin off the W Coast of FL. I saw that ULL yesterday too, but it was devoid of convection. Also, look in the BOC. I think the remnants of #9 are now under some ridging (per WV) as a ULL moves SW across the Rio Grande Valley (appears to be a trof split, but I don't remember a trof down there!).

Also, for you El Nino/La Nina fans. Check out the latest SSTA's. All of the sudden, a +6 off the coast of Peru? This has got to be a temporary thing as in "no. I doubt it's El Nino. But that's a serious reversal over the last few weeks."
SSTA's
Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
And for those of you Corpus to New Orleans, here's an excerpt from Joe B today...
      #10091 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:04 AM

Before dealing with the threat to the east coast next week, as I expect the next trof to dive into the Mississippi valley next week, then lift out and after the 10th we go back to a September version of the post August trof pattern, the first threat for a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane is the area from Corpus to New Orleans early next week. I think the Eurga is in one of its score coup mode as it seeks to drive the other models into the wasteland of being obsolete compared to it.

It makes sense as to what its saying as it has western gulf development and here is why: The westward movement of waves is slowing to next to nothing from the gulf to the Pacific. If one looks at Ignacio, its wave took forever to move off the coast and then develop. The former TD 9 is near 90 west drifting west, the wave behind it has split in 2 and is near 80 west and its heat will pile in Friday over the south central gulf. In the meantime the large blow up of thunderstorms over Panama this morning shows where the true large scale mid level heat source is. The overall pattern is such where this is not heading west, but northwest the next several days. This is because, the upper ridge over the Caribbean and southwest atlantic has been weakened enough by the waves coming through, so the stream flow is deep southeast not east here. So that source comes northwest. It is not so much that clouds do, as they are a product of convergence in the low levels and the aforementioned mid level disturbance, but the heat it represents does. In the meantime, in response the the developing plains trof, a large outflow ridge develops over the central gulf the next 5 days. By sunday the front is deep into Texas and that means the usual south to southeast flow that ruins western gulf convergence is gone and by Monday is replaced by northerly surface winds . All roads lead to Rome, right? Well barring a move by the system quickly west into Mexico Sunday night and Monday, all roads here, at least the sign, point to weekend development over the western gulf. In addition the development pulse in now heading into the atlantic basin.

My big fear here is the tropics worldwide are too darn quiet and we may see a 3 storm burst in the atlantic that is starting to ramp up right now. African, behind the system that looks to be near or at tropical storm intensity southwest of the Cape Verdes, is shutting down. The strong negative NAO implies that the place for maximum ridging aloft is the western and central atlantic and into the gulf. The gulf system will be a complex development, if it does develop, and certainly is not something that unless one is truly snooping around, one can see easily as the only model that sees it is the European. But all the players are there. The other two developments are much more straight forward and are eastern North America threats....Yep I know what I am saying, that by Labor day morning we have 3 storms The pattern I envision is one home brewed development in the western gulf and the other two atlantic systems simply coming west under a ridge that is locked out near 70 west till the early part of next week...Again, the surface map fits the pattern. Think big picture...

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 92L / 93L
      #10092 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:19 AM

Hey Bruce, I'm in Palm Bay also, any other models showing that Central /South Florida scenario....tied up at work...thanks.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
assumptions
      #10093 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:25 AM

i'm going to assume some of the models have a clue about the large scale motions over the next few days. globals are still developing systems in places, but this finally looks like the real thing. NHC is suggesting 92L is on t.d. status, new 93L is the northern piece of the central atlantic wave that broke off into a trough and is holding down convection and tailing away into the subtropics. then there's the piece of the wave near hispaniola that is now according to NHC suggesting 'broad low pressure' is developing.
off to an interview, no time to go through model runs.. but based on what it showed yesterday.. the hispaniola system is a florida problem, the central atlantic system turns west under the ridge north of the islands, and the one near the cape verdes develops and moves wnw. all in line with steve's bastardi excerpt. the westernmost action (hispaniola and the stuff suggested from energy piling into the western gulf) is pattern-induced.. when i saw that amplification into texas earlier in the week i was guessing that potential existed, with the generally lowered pressures, and sluggish wave movement.
everything looks wired, just have to see if shear doesn't cut the fuses. four system potential, almost impossible not to get 2 out of all this over the next 5 days.
HF 1225z27august


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10094 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:30 AM

Hey Steve H. Thats the only one. Melbourne weather service has it as an open wave this weekend in Central Florida. But, they (NWS-Melbourne) has been going back and forth on this all week. Open wave, Tropical System, Open Wave, Tropical system, so I quess time will tell.

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: sat pictures
      #10095 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:10 AM

I remember that...I had to run out and buy different color push pins so we could track all of them.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
closer to home
      #10096 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:12 AM

GOM system appears to be ULL... nothing at the surface...
I can't find any kind of rotation on the wave north of the islands... still fighting some strong shear at the moment... a couple of models try to develop a low out of it and head it towards central florida... but good luck trying to find anything out there close to home


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
nogaps on friday...
      #10097 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:19 AM

Define "nice" please Bruce

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
been watching that also..didn't want to say anything but
      #10098 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:21 AM

then there was ignacio....

and have been watching the water temps and...

ummmmmm shhhhhh

let's pretend you didn't post that and i didn't respond

have a good day trying to figure out how certain people were going to watch for explosive development from the wave over haiti yesterday... would take a nuclear explosion at this point

bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: 92L / 93L
      #10099 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:44 AM

The AVN shows it as well.

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: nogaps on friday...
      #10100 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:52 AM

Hey Loiscane, A Tropical storm, its showing a system off the East Coast of Florida developing rapidly. Im not counting on it at this point in time.

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Update from the models for ENSO=Neutral conditions
      #10101 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:38 AM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Steve and Steve H here is the august update for ENSO and neutral conditions for the next 5-8 months.

I think that TD#10 is born in the east atlantic as it looks really well developed.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: been watching that also..didn't want to say anything but
      #10102 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:53 AM

The year Hurricane Erin made landfall also produced the 'I named' storm that resulted from a hovering low between the Bahamas and the Palm Beaches that rapidly developed and made landfall within a day as a TS in south central Florida. The same conditions can cause a repeat storm this weekend.

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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