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Advisories begin for #TD11 located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Elsewhere watching #98L #99L and likely #90L High Odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Florence) , Major: 366 (Maria) Florida - Any: 376 (Irma) Major: 376 (Irma)
13.1N 53.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 6 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9816 - Sat Aug 23 2003 12:46 AM

59 kt winds at around 5000 feet (1520 meters) at 17.7/69.6, but from the SE.

Anyone know what 59 kt winds at that height translate to at the surface? Or is that too high to even make a meaningful calculation based on it?


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9817 - Sat Aug 23 2003 12:49 AM

That would be something derived from generic data from past storms not always conclusive

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9818 - Sat Aug 23 2003 12:51 AM

And the winds were 33 kt, not 59 kt -- I actually think that was an NHC error, not mine. (When I refreshed the screen, the 6th and 7th observations changed around.)

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9819 - Sat Aug 23 2003 12:51 AM

Why are they out there right now in the middle of the night for a system that they have downgraded to only a wave? They must think it can be much more than that.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9820 - Sat Aug 23 2003 12:57 AM

Richie:

In the last advisory, the NHC said it had the potential to regenerate at any time, so it would continue to send recon flights into the mission. So yes, you're right.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9821 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:03 AM

I would venture to say circulation at about 16.5N 70W and stationary.The area in question starting to fill in with CDO.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9822 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:03 AM

Where can the recon information be found?

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9823 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:07 AM

net-waves.net usually decodes and posts it, but for some reason isn't with this system.

You can get the raw data at NHC.noaa.gov. Click the "aircraft recon" link under "Get Storm Info" on the left side. "RECCO Observations" will give the latest coded data submission from the plane (there's a "How to Read" link that explains how to decode). The big drawback is that only the latest submission is there, so you have to keep refreshing to see each one, and even then sometimes NHC doesn't post them all. (E.g., just now it skipped from the 1st to the 4th; presumably 2 and 3 weren't important, as it was still heading to the area and was at high altitude.)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Javlin
      #9824 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:09 AM

Javlin: I know it's not conclusive, but do you know the estimate NHC uses? I think it's 85% for 1500-foot altitude winds, but I'm not sure about 5000 feet.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9825 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:12 AM

Almost forgot: the "Vortex Message" link under the "RECCO Observations" link will show you the vortex data if the plane has found a low-level circulation. (So the vortex message now posted is from Erika (Ericka?).)

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Javlin
      #9826 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:15 AM

I really do not know it would all depend on previous models .That is a good question worthy of future research.

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Eduardo
Unregistered




Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9827 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:15 AM

Thanks brad for the information--I appreciate it. I am also from Miami, FL. I have been fascinated with storms for a couple a years now, and should be able to take some elective courses at MIT for metereology next year.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9828 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:29 AM

The plane is looking for that west wind well west of 70 degrees--now around 71.8, a full 3+ degrees west of where Ed speculated a center might be. Not surprisingly, not a hint of one yet. The closest was 20 degrees (between N and NNE).

You're welcome Eduardo. That's awesome - I suspect MIT has a great meteorology program. Will you be doing undergraduate or graduate work?


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Eduardo
Unregistered




Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9829 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:32 AM

Thanks Brad... I study over at Harvard economics and math, but have always been fascinated...Since i can cross-register, I will take a graduate course on cyclones just to get a feel.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9830 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:33 AM

I was going to ask why recon was outside the cloud field. Now it makes some sense. but why aren't they alittle closer to the convection?

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9831 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:41 AM

Lisa: I suspect NHC thinks that if an LLC exists, it is west of the convection, and that the convection is being sheared northeast from it.

16.8/71.0 wind at 17 degrees (just east of north)


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Jim M
Unregistered




Clearing up my comments
      #9832 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:44 AM

My comment was not really if the system is a TD. In the past, comments were made in the discussions that in spite of not finding a closed circulation or some other item, they would maintain official advisories on the system. I do not agree with immediately downgrading a system simply for the possibility of confusing the public. I know others disagree and think that advisories should be strictly based on meteorogical standards. Maybe my argument is more political then scientific. I am not saying that NHC should clasify anything with winds as a storm or TD. I would rather have them wait an advisory or two on downgrading just because recon doesn't find a circulation if there are other indications that this could still be a possible system. If this thing is reclassified later today back, some in the public will get confused. Politically, downgrading at 5:00PM on a Friday could be bad too. Some folks won't pay attention to the news over the weekend thinking the system is gone. We all know how unpredictable these systems can be at times, in spite of our best science. From a public safety standpoint, my primary concern, I think it is wiser for NHC to not be 100% literal in its interpetations. I would rather see them say in the discussion that no closed circulation was found and keep it as a TD for another 6-12 hours until either one or two more recon flights can not find a circulation or other factors [T-numbers, etc] show that the system has weakened/disapated. This is what they use to do and I think it was better for the general public in the long run then to be absolutely scientifically accurate. This is where I say the NHC has changed its "definition." I know from a strict weather definition, people will disagree. From a public saftey and information standpoint, I think it is prudent to keep the system in the public eye.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
GFDL
      #9833 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:51 AM

Popped in to see what was being discussed... just looked at the latest GFDL run... remembered from earlier today that it said 9 would just basically sit in this general area for days... well guess what... it's still saying that... basically stationary for the next 5 days, interesting but hard to believe...

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Jim M
Unregistered




Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9834 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:53 AM

With everything I just said, I am not sure there is a TD out there. It may come back tomorrow afternoon. However, I think the idea that the upper level steering not matching up with low level causing a kind of virtual shear makes sense. Almost reminds me of a couple of years ago when the LLC's kept out running the ULC's and the systems died.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9835 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:53 AM

thanks Brad
97779 05254 70168 71000 15300 15017 15158 /2512
15017
I thought the 15 would be just east of south?? and their last reading was 09014 I thought that was east?? they are confusing me. Of course at 2am that isn't hard!!!

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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