javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Well Phil you might be half way right that it may develop once pass the islands or the 70 mark.The front seems to be keeping the low to the N at check.It does not seem to be creating to much shear in the possible future track.The dry air out front could be a problem maybe.It seems the little wave to the N for the time being is keeping the track wet somewhat.If that little wave can survive maybe the other will.GOM I would not bet on it yet.
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
A beer? If all of that played out you'd get forecaster of the year award 
Conditions persist and are still extremely hostile. But, I've seen strange things happen in the tropics that confound the experts. So..you never know.
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
The wave is now invest 97L. It's looking OK on satellite imagery this morning, and seems to have held on to its convection. Maybe it does have a chance if it can maintain itself. At least it has lasted since it's always really annoying when something looks hopeful on imagery and then when you check the next morning it has vanished or dissipated. 
|
JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
|
|
FWIW....
http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 19 July 2004 - 5:30 AM EDT
A vigorous tropical wave has emerged from the Intertropical Convergence Zone near 55ºW. Shortwave infrared imagery indicates that a low to mid level circulation is present. I might add that the current satellite signature is very impressive. Outflow is fair in all quadrants. Upper level winds are almost non-existant and a strong ridge aloft will likely keep upper level winds favorable for development over the next several days. Convection is not a problem either. Over the past month, several waves have flared as a result of divergent winds aloft. That does not appear to be the case this time around. In fact, much of the thunderstorm activity developing along the wave axis is likely surface induced, a good sign for barotropic (tropical) development.
As for the inhibiting parameters, subsidence ahead of the wave and the wave's quick forward motion could cause some problems. the wave is racing westward at 25MPH, and that will hinder the organization process. Meanwhile, the wave will have to contend with dry air as it approaches the eastern Caribbean Sea. These are the two parameters that raise doubt in terms of development potential.
Interestingly enough, none of the global models are forecasting development at this time. You can debate that this may be one of the reasons why the Tropical Prediction Center has been so hesitant to discuss this feature in detail. An invest has been issued, and that is probably an indication that TPC is also interested in the current signature of the wave. While the available model guidance does not show much in the way of development, they do show hints of the wave continuing to progress west-northwest towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This is in response to the weakening of the subtropical ridge as a strong trough pushes slightly east. This will create a weakness over Hispaniola and Bahamas. This could lead to the wave taking a similar path. The low level steering flow is coming out of the east underneath the ridge, but that may change in the eastern Caribbean over the next 72 hours.
In summary, the tropical wave is fairly organized, with strong ridging aloft that will keep upper level winds condusive for development over the next several days. Sea surface temperatures also support further development. Meanwhile, dry air and a quick low level steering flow will try to keep the wave in check. The wave will need to develop a well-defined central core so that it can sustain itself and further organize. The surface circulation must become easily apparent and convection must continue to persist near the center. Basically, we need persistent convection near the low level circulation. If these things mentioned do not occur, then the potential for development will rapidly decrease. The critical timeframe for development will be the next 24 hours. If the wave doesn't continue to organize over the next 24 hours, then any potential for development will likely be limited at best. Residents in the southern Windward Islands should be prepared for heavy rainfall and strong winds over the next 36 hours. Slow development is possible within the next 24-36 hours.
--------------------
Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
97L looks fairly impressive with curve clouds moving around what appears is a low to mid level circulation.Let's see if it slows down and organize more in the next 24 hours to then have the first TD of the season.But regardless what happens squally weather for the islands is a good bet.Phil your wave is more healthy than ever so let's see what happens.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_97L.INVEST_ssmi_composite_full.html
Hmmmm some dry air is trying to penetrate it so let's watch and see what happens.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Really excellent discussion, great analysis, really.
Sort of simply what is different with this wave today is that it has developed a "pocket" and it demands attention for that reason. Started to look like that last night... convection was firing up at dead center. I paid attention. Went to bed and saw that was also.
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
725
WHXX01 KWBC 191250
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972004) ON 20040719 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040719 1200 040720 0000 040720 1200 040721 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 55.0W 12.1N 58.7W 13.0N 61.9W 14.1N 64.7W
BAMM 11.3N 55.0W 12.4N 58.9W 13.6N 62.5W 14.9N 65.5W
A98E 11.3N 55.0W 11.7N 59.1W 12.4N 62.7W 13.1N 65.8W
LBAR 11.3N 55.0W 12.1N 59.1W 13.1N 63.1W 14.1N 66.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040721 1200 040722 1200 040723 1200 040724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 67.0W 15.3N 70.9W 16.2N 74.9W 17.6N 79.1W
BAMM 15.8N 67.8W 16.8N 70.8W 18.0N 73.3W 19.7N 75.4W
A98E 13.5N 68.3W 14.8N 72.2W 15.8N 75.4W 17.8N 78.9W
LBAR 14.9N 70.2W 16.3N 75.7W 16.9N 79.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 74KTS 82KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 74KTS 63KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 50.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
|
Bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
Gets your heart beating a little faster, doesn't it?
Very interesting #s. See how it plays out.
Want to remind all of you people ready to give up the ship on a 2004 Tracking Season.
Look at the first storm of season and look at how many systems there were..
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
Check out the strong wave coming off Africa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
TG
--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
|
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
SSD has started T-numbers for 97L, although it is labeled 90 on their site, it has the same position as our current invest. The first two classifications have been "Too Weak".
Edited to include URL for LI Phil
Here is the link to SSD T-numbers
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 19 2004 02:52 PM)
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
I had posted this the other day:
"We have been watching the rotation of water vapor for days now. 30N/55W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can now see "popcorn" type clouds appearing in the center. Does this depict a ULL making it's way down to the center or surface? "
It has now moved to 29 N 60W with a bit more cloud coverage.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Exactly what I have been thinking all along...1969. I remember it well!
sc 
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Not much to say that hasn't been said already...great post Jason! Obviously, timing is the crucial element for 97L...it needs to tighten up a bit and slow down a tad, but it's held together remarkably well thus far.
Jamie, I had the link once but lost it and now I'm too lazy to look...could you post the link for the #s.
1969. I'm sure a lot of you remember that one well, especially Frank P. Lets not hope for a year like that ever again.
Will keep an eye on 97L, and I wouldn't keep my eyes too far from the GOM either...it's a friggin' hot tub down there and all it needs is a trigger.
Peace out,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
You have to look at Visible. And when you do there is hardly anything there. Very unlikely the a ULL would work its way down. IMHO
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Check this view out. The little disturbance just ahead of 97L is getting rid of a lot of the dry air...sort of like a fullback clearing the field for his tailback. It's also taking a slightly more northerly track, meaning if this holds together, it could be a Bahamas/USEC worry down the road.
Will see...things are starting to get real interesting (finally).
Cheers,
LI Phil
and Jamiewx, thanx for the link!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
ULL isn't quite getting wet inside in the center..as said take a look at the visible, in my opinon. Doesn't excite me
OH MY GOSH!!!!!!!!! LOOK AT THAT WAVE THAT IS TWISTING SOUTH OF THE ULL AND RUNNING WEST IN TANDEM WITH IT.. ITS TWISTING, REALLY IS..
wonder what the weathers going to be like in Trindidad on Tuesday 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Thank you
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
all the outlooks say the same, "no signs of tropical cyclone formation"
I am actually a bit surprised the wave east of the Antilles hasnt even been mentioned on the Weather Channel yet
at least they've added "elsewhere" at the end of the "no development expected" line
also, anyone who lives in Florida, the weather has been rather comfortable for being the end of July, it actually is starting to feel like the end of September
would be nice if the tropics would reflect this
Anyway, 97L has a pretty good chance at development, if it doesnt move into South America or dissipate in the Eastern Caribbean (I'm only going to be 21 on the 23rd, but Ive been tracking since 1993 and Ive seen both scenarios happen with waves as well as classified systems)
the system off of Africa also looks very organized, but Im going to wait and see since so many that far east have dissipated a few days later, but it does seem to have a strong flow of low-level westerlies to the south of the wave (same setup as with Cindy in 1999 a few days before exiting Africa and immediately becoming a TD)
Wait and see, we could have something, but after all of the other "maybe's" that have dissipated, I dont want to get my hopes up
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Most recent satellite pics display what the described as a vigorous wave...no LLC, and there seems to be some west to sw shear ahead of it which will impede the development. But it has the best potential of any so far.
The GOM situation is a trough with upper features rotating along at rapid rates...no chance to develop unless it all just stalls and by that I mean the upper features slow to a crawl...surface pressures are about 29.88 now on the westcoast.
These are my most humble of opinions. EDS.
--------------------
doug
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
