Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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One more thing from work:
Will it be or "Most honorable " and will this be an 8am storm tomorrow?
Heh
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Btw, 's presentation of 5pm data on Bonnie was sorely lacking - must be a computer glitch.
No s---. All day it's been like that. too. It's not like real-time data are important or anything.
--Forecaster Avila
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Be careful what you wish more, you may get it and more. These Gulf storms scare me. I remember the way Opal blew up overnight. Went to bed expecting a nice small cat 1 and woke up to a cat 3+ monster. I always wonder about a strength forecast on a GOM storm, or any other storm too. Seems like improvement is made on track forecasting; but strength forecasting seems to show as much skill as predicting a roll on the dice.
Can not get the thought out of my mind of a double whammy hit over the next two weeks.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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All I got is a wish over here because I'm not likly to see much if anything outta this one (except maybe some winds due to isobars being close together as they usually are between a front and a tropical system). This one's for you guys east of me (unless by some chance it crosses lower Plaquemines Parish first).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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bobbi
Unregistered
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makes me smile and laugh, think we need some more laughter around here.. especially on a day where the system that is spinning beautifully is waiting on TD2 to be revived like some religious meteorological festival to the weather gods
we wouldnt want to be numerically incorrect now would we?
especially w/o recon
either way.. enjoy it while it lasts
and yeah..that tune has been stuck in my head for days too 
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Well, I'm getting married this week on the Gulf Coast (Fort Walton Beach). It might be a triple whammy for me! How many cars with "Just Married" on them have you seen in evacuation traffic?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Rasvar... I am careful what I wish for, and that was a tropical storm.. Heck I have as much to lose as anyone on this board as I live in a beach front house on highway 90 in Biloxi... I've been thru em all too... Camille (not on the beach, on the Point with 5 feet of storm surge in my house)... Fredrick, Elena, Georges all on the beach... one of the most amazing things I have ever experience is the eye of a hurricane... Elena and Georges... Elena was during the morning and was absolutely incredible ... I've been there and done that ... and a little TS would be more than enought for me... trust me on that
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bobbi
Unregistered
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yeah, would bet TD3 has stronger winds than bonnie even now
but well.. what can i say
personally would be worried about a C storm with that track
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
looks like we are making up for two months of non-activity now doesnt it!
Heres my take on our two new systems:
Tropical Storm Bonnie - a small and potentially fragile system. A tight inner core and small convective envelope... reminds me a little of a rather infamous 1992 Hurricane  Think this system stands a good chance of becomming a major player in the Gulf, especially if it can withstand the dry air for the next 24 - 48 hrs (per Discussion). My initial guess on landfall and intensity, if it holds, is somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola, probably as a Cat 1 Hurricane.
Tropical Depression Three - think this has a good shot at becoming in the next 12 hours. Well organised, and in a favourable area at present. No immediate threat, but down the road it looks like it may have Cuba in its sights. Further on, it seems as if maybe the Gulf will get a double whammy.
Will post more soon.
Kind regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Well, I'm getting married this week on the Gulf Coast (Fort Walton Beach). It might be a triple whammy for me! How many cars with "Just Married" on them have you seen in evacuation traffic?
How many folks on this board would LOVE to be married during a hurricane? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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LI Phil, knowing Lixion (Avila) myself...I'm not having a hard time picturing him saying that! A bit slower than normal and you've got it, haha.
So now, this might be the long-awaited system we here in Tallahassee have been waiting on for almost 5 years. 'Bout time! I can't see anything east of Cedar Key, with somewhere on the big end of the Fl. Panhandle (Destin-Apalachicola) most likely. But, I do think it'll get very close to some of the points further west as well, so it's not going to be a small region affected by this storm.
You all can bet that there will be some chase teams from here at heading out if Bonnie is close enough. Watching TD #3 too - I'm impressed by the outflow pattern, but not impressed by the overall feel of the storm. I've been bitten on these types of systems too many times to get my hopes up too much about anything happening. It needs to slow down - but if it does, it's got a reasonably favorable environment ahead of it. Not even going to peg a guess as to where it may go.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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well actually Phil.. Id rather have the ceremony before the hurricane... have the honeymoon during the hurricane
my bonnie lies over the sea...
giggle
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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As long as I don't have to honeymoon in a Red Cross shelter I can take it. The area of cots just doesn't offer much in the way of privacy.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Well bonnie came along with recon and TS force winds as predicted, if they didnt find that tight center, I would be uncertain if it would develop. Infact we saw TS winds and saw the circulation, but the problem of thinking, if it develops at all is kinda what the is thinking This could very quickly lose its convection on the s side of the tight center. If so there might be other weak centers pop up in other blow up thunderstorms. Also in these tight scenerios, very tight systems can really gain strength fast. Could in wrap up to 70mph or more? Well yeah it can, but highly up in the air.
Overall as mentioned, people from NO thru Tampa need to watch this system, a turn more north on Tuesday and ne on weds.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The Gulf Coast region got hit three times in one month back in the 1860's.The rule was 60 nautical miles of each other.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Think Charlie's track will pull more to the right than Bonnie's current path..
Very classic track for Charlie .. I know its not Charlie til they say its Charlie
My question is if they relocated center to NW.. would be in better position to strengthen than before and further away from SA.. so should fill out that pocket real nicely
two storms and monday night football, wow..
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Oh yeah, I forgot there's a game tonight! Anyhow, don't say Charlie yet bobbi, there's still no true , and the thing in theory could collapse, but I doubt it since it has not waned too much since last night. As far as track, it should be gaining latitude during the next two days (WNW) but when it feels the effects of the long wave trough will make things interesting. The first thing it will do is slow its forward motion, then begin to bend to the right. Due to its current forward speed its possible it could make it into the eastern GOM before making a turn; or maybe not, which might put the Fl peninsula in harms way. If it slows enuf it could end up going north through the Bahamas and out (least likely IMO). If it doesn't strengthen per the models it could continue west. But the setup for this trough is further west than the previous one which cut into the Bahamas. And the nosing ridge from the western Atlantic makes the setup even more interesting. But we need a first. Any way you slice it, the GOM and the SE is gonna get wet. Eyes East and West
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Folks:
Its time to stay on topic. The site is going to get very busy - and you know what that means. I've already got a full time job (I don't need another) and the next week is going to keep ME very busy. I'd like to be able to spend at least a little time on the site sharing my thoughts - but I'll need your help in order to do that. I love this stuff too, but the boss often has other ideas, so please try to make it easy on the Admins and Mods this week and with luck I'll be able to make a post or two. Please give LI Phil and HF your support - I think that they would like to enjoy these storms too.
Now, for a certain loyal fan who lives somewhere around the Mississippi:
As your eminent host
I'm ready to cut
The very next post
That copies this 'nut'
(I'll let it stay - just this once. No reply is necessary - please.)
Thanks,
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Looking at Tropical Depression Three I noticed a red dot developing round what should be his ..or the area that most likely will be the when a hurricane hunter gets there.
I think that if you take a long look at a long loop you will see it will and is tracking to the right of the forecasted track. Florida.. both coasts should pay attention.
The small compact storm in the Gulf that has its own topic on this forum did intercept the ball but I won't call a flag or complain about any interference as I'm not an official running around in zebra stripes at the .
And, either way we have a game going on here.. a storm to track, the players are on the field and it looks like a high scoring game. Not a bunch of fish storms.. this is the real thing.
I'll be good.
Promise. I wouldn't want to make you do double duty running back and forth from one board/topic to another worrying where some poster might say something a bit too cute or witty of too hot for some to handle. Will leave the heat in the ocean where the storms can suck it up and explode.
enjoy and relax is my advice
bobbi
watching 3 right now
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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"OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
GMZ089-100330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE NEAR 23.2N 88.7W 1007 MB AT
2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT. BONNIE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 24.3N
90.0W AT 0600 UTC AUG 10...NEAR 25.3N 90.3W AT 1800 AUG 10...
26.5N 90.2W AT 0600 UTC AUG 11...27.4N 89.5W AT 1800 UTC AUG
11...30.0N 86.5W AUG 12...THEN INLAND NEAR 34.0N 80.5W AT 1800
UTC AUG 13. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 1015 MB
LOW CENTER NEAR 30N91W. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE
MOVING N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE
INTO THE NW GULF WATERS THU. BONNIE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT
AND N OF AREA FRI AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
E TEXAS AND DISSIPATES BY SAT. A HURRICANE CURRENTLY IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN MAY MOVE NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SAT. "
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