DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Im not sure how ya'll are goin about tracking s movement, but dont just look at a 1 hour loop. Try and loop it for 3 or 4 hours and look at the longer term general motion. I have found out in the past that the eye can expand, contract, wobble and everything else and give a false sense that a direction change has occured. IMO The general direction I've seen has been NNW. I wouldnt be to concerned with it now. Wait till after s off Cube and out in the open Gulf. Then we should get a better idea of where hes going.
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nickd
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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Im not going to Tampa. I'm going to inland Pinellas. As long as I get over the bridge it is only 10 minutes from there.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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These storms are upredictable period.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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here is the first stupid question of day (not since i've been posting just today). when a object (hurricane) is going counterclockwise and it meets resistance on the east side it should bounce to the east because its foward motion going north slows down on the east but not the west . is (notice spelling now phil  no ie anymore) going to do that? am i missing the boat on this? looks like if it starts that along the west coast it would kinda bounce on to the east and go inland. maybe i have been reading too much stuff the last few days trying to reason with hurricane season.
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Never under estimate the keen eye of all of us sat image watchers...we can see the slightest change of direction...
I go to sleep at night with my eyes rotating counterclockwise...
ok back to being serious...
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John C
Unregistered
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Reason with Hurricane season.
I like that andy1tom!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yo Phil,
The only Cat 3 I went through was when I was one. My parents rode it out after we went to the shelter around the corner and my sister and I threw up from the heat (probably a airborne virus). They brought us home until the water backed up after the storm and we had to be rescued. The worst I've been through would be the center-of-circulation wall with one of the last three (Isidore?), Bob, fringe of Andrew and Florence.
Main key is stay away from windows (yeah right) and try to set up a safe room in your house if you plan to ride it out. Best thing to do if you don't have a hallway or interior bathroom is to put some mattresses up against a window in that room and put some strong furniture in front of it. You don't have to stay there the whole time, but if all hell breaks loose, you've got somewhere to go. Make sure whatever impliment of destruction you're going to use to free yourself (if necessary) is close at hand AT ALL TIMES. If your ceiling collapses or if your roof fails and the walls fall, you need to be able to get out (saw, hatchet, mallet, maul, whatever). Main thing is be safe.
And oh btw, look forward to the trof after the storm passes through. It feels like FALL here. This is unreal. I don't know what the temps are (low 70's?) but it feels like wind chill outside. A nice break before summer (hopefully) kicks in in Louisiana.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Well, I hope that John's post that reminds us of what Floyd did doesn't come true with a turn towards SE Florida, because no one in Dade, Broward or Palm Beach counties is ready. We have no watches or warnings up, school is going on as usual tomorrow, and no one has gone to the store or even put lawn furniture away.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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You are right. Little off base on my part. he is. I was guilty of the Izzy thing as well.....bad habit that will stop.
Charley on a longer loop does have a NNW/N tilt to it still.
Does anyone see a due North course for 360 miles to Tampa before drifting East a bit?
It could average out to that. It should not make a hard right turn at any time in the next 12-24 hours and he's moving at a good clip. That doesn't mean he won't have a easterly drift into the west coast shy of Tampa though. I just don't see him doing a body slam on Mickey.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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John & Mike C. Thanks for the great site.
I'm personally going to take the opportunity to get some 40 winks. Everyone else be safe and secure.
I'll be back tomorrow am (whether you like it or not), but this one is going to carry a very loooooogn day.
You guys were great today! Everyone be safe & sheltered, and those who remain tomorrow...get on line if you can...but first and foremost...be safe!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Thanks Steve...I think....
Very scary scenarios...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.2W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.
That's my house above.........
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
0300Z FRI AUG 13 2004
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN
REEF...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...22.2 N... 82.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 975 mb
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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He He
Not tonight Dan, not tonight.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Slowing down the track. Now off Sarasota at 8:00 PM and then tracking dead into the Bay on that course. Not good moves in anyways.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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We will have to just keep watching, for last couple hours looks north. Personally I am waiting to see which way it goes after moving away from cuba in a few hours.The Key West radar just keeps showing more and more bands each hour. A beautiful site.
Hurric
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Charley has slowed down to 14 mph and pres. 975mb.
This is at 11 pm.( Seen above)Tornadoes possible along keys.
Edited by hurricane_run (Fri Aug 13 2004 02:47 AM)
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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They've shifted the track a little eastward. Now it should be coming up the western edge of the Orlando area.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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How quickly should we expect to lose intensity once on land? I'm trying to extrapolate expected winds if it passes through Polk County, Orange County, etc.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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