bobbi
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how far out is that from today?
and wondering on what everyone thinks on this one
will it come in under the infamous 20/60 line?
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Ed in Va
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Look at the AVN projections for :
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
Talk about an outlier!
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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rmbjoe1954
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The AVN projection is classic Cape Verde, wouldn't you say? I wonder what variables they are using in that model (or, what variables are missing?) 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Thu Aug 26 2004 08:20 PM)
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Ed in Va
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Not sure. I've been following tropical weather for years, but pretty much a newbie to some of the technical aspects of this forum...so you're saying that the AVN is based more on the history of CS storms, rather than on some other analysis?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Clark
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It is worthy to note that the very preceding run of the AVN had it impacting the SE coast of Florida with landfall in 13 days - the same length of time as that model goes out to...so don't put really any faith in that solution.
Of note, however, is that the 12Z (may not be publicly out yet) brings Francis to 147mph in 5 days. A couple of the proprietary models we have here are the strongest of them all (not incl. the ). It should also be noted that the track forecast continues to bend to the left ever-so-slightly. There are some bad analogs for this storm...but we'll see how it all plays out.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Keith234
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I think that they're seven variables that are used in all of the models, at least for regular meteorology(not tropical). The saying that I always use if I have inaccurate forecasts is that are seven variables and only six equations to solve for the seven unknowns, that's why it is so hard to figure out weather. Hurricanes are different because they are heat engines, and since we poorly understand how heat is transfered into motion it is hard to perdict were these storms will go.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bruce
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80 MPH
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LONNY307
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It's official. is a hurricane and everyone along the coast needs to keep a close eye on her. According to this discussion the Bermuda High will be building back in.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
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LI Phil
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The following should explain pretty much everything about the models. It's some lengthy reading, but it will help to explain each model's strengths and weaknesses. I would also like to point out what scottsvb said earlier as well as what Ed's "credo" is...anything beyond 5 days out is pure speculation.
model explanations
This needs to be watched...closely...and everyone on the entire east coast and probably for now the Gulf should monitor ' progress. But this storm is still a long way away from the US mainland. For now, don't take what the models are predicting past 120 hours (and more realistically 72 hours) as anything but speculation.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rmbjoe1954
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But you are right; anything beyond 72 hours has a lower confidence score; therefore any projections beyond 5 days have even less. It's just for all to beware and be on alert.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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zacros
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I know it's exciting that is a hurricane now, but look at the long range radar from Savannah. Could that be a low pressure system just off shore of South Carolina?
Savannah Radar
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LI Phil
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>>> I know it's exciting that is a hurricane now
This is going to be a major hurricane before the weekend is over, and it doesn't look like it's going to spin the fish. The only question is how strong will it be at landfall, and where will landfall be...I wouldn't call the feeling anyone is getting when they could potentially be in the bullseye "exciting."
Carolinians also need to be watching the frontal boundary for development.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ticka1
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what does everyone think of the statement that is or will go more west and the Bermuda High is moving in?
Just how will the Bermuda HIgh affect 's direction?
Ticka1
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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DMFischer
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Quote:
I know it's exciting that is a hurricane now,
I think that exciting is the wrong word for the feeling that many of us here in central florida feel as organizes. There is an excitement that comes from looking at a cane that is forming, and has nothing to do with the dread that we feel at the thought of one of these beautiful monsters taking aim at the east coast. Everytime I drive in to Orlando and see the aftermath of , I wonder why I love watching these storms develope. Yet here I am every night, surfing from site to site, trying to teach myself something about the mystery of the big storms. Education was my only weapon against the fear. For the most part everyone is still talking way over my head, but I get the drift and go hunting for explinations to the things that have been posted. "feels" and looks like what I saw with floyd. I do not know if it is the size of the storm building, or the speed it is organizing. It is still out there a ways, and the hand of god can still push it more north, but someone is going to deal with this baby. In my very VERY novice opinion. For what its worth. 
Be Safe Whatever happens!!
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Keith234
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I don't know how being in the path of a hurricane is exciting maybe exicting is not the word, more like anxious. This hurricane will pose a serious threat for the coastline, it is very dangerous and there's nothing exciting about it.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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rickonboat
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This one is worth watching now. Looks like another widow maker to me.
The distance belies any real guess to it's eventual path, so why go there yet.
It will be interesting to see if the Bermuda high keeps it westerly. Following the pattern this year, this sure looks like a player.
Intensity will be up there, of course. One wonders that if it gets to a major hurricane soon...How long can it stay at that?...don't they have a natural life cycle....time wise...or the fact it is way out there....does that mean it can stay a major cat 3 or better...long enough to punish us?...
probably CAT 5, Mobile bound, of course...
Rick...I knew it wouldn't take you long...since there are many new to the board who don't get it, lets make this the last reference. Thanks, big guy.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 26 2004 09:31 PM)
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LI Phil
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Already showing an offshore rotation, about 50 miles east of CHS.
Intellicast loop
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirschb.
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I agree that this may peak early, so its eventually strength (should it head for land) is anyone's guess. Remember that Andrew was barreling along only to get squashed when he was north of Puerto Rico. I thought initially that it would diminish. Then came the ridge from the NW that built over him and drove him west then WSW.
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rmbjoe1954
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A major hurricane-to-be like deserves respect; one must act with wisdom- since we can't control the weather, we can control ourselves and act to protect our lives and property ( as best that be done).
Hopefully, it won't be a landfalling system- too much distance from us to responsibly state landfalling probabilities with any confidence. All we can do is view this sytem with awe and respect for mother nature's beauty.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
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looks like its getting better organized slowly, although there is still no invest on it
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