StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
As close as she is to the coast, there is not much of a chance that she will get it together enough to really make cat 3?? It looks to me like the tops around the eye are building higher...more or deeper thunderboomers???
She's pretty much borderline Cat 2/3 anyway, wouldn't take much to push her to Cat 3.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't know if she'll have time...but at this slow speed, it isn't out of the question that she gets back to 3...be thankful she didn't do this yesterday...
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Jason Kelley
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marlins56
Unregistered
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what is the 8pm advisory going to be for winds?over 110mph?
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Eyeman
Unregistered
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Quote:
what is the 8pm advisory going to be for winds?over 110mph?
Windspeed usually lags behind pressure drops. Wait for 11
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Stayed at 105...if the deepening continues it might get upgraded at 11.
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Jason Kelley
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marlins56
Unregistered
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Ok thank you for the imformatio everyone
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Doombot!
Unregistered
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Quote:
Stayed at 105...if the deepening continues it might get upgraded at 11.
The Hurricane force winds have also reduced to 75mi, isn't that another sign of strenghting, i.e. "winding back up tighter"?
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Winds have not changed, YET, because it takes a few hrs. for the winds to respond to the pressure drop. The 11:00 should have the increase in winds I would think.
ShawnS
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I was a bit surprised that the advisory did not note the pressure fall. They just listed it like it had always been that low.
951mb usually correlates to about 115-120mph winds in hurricanes, but as stated earlier, wind increases usually follow after the pressure fall. The next recon will be very very important for what we are going to get.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Man, y'all are on top of everything. Great Job!!!
ShawnS
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storm1
Unregistered
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jason do you think she will still be a cane when she gets to the gulf and how strong .and were is the next land fall thanks .
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snoozer
Unregistered
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Yes, when re-emerges in the Gulf:
what are the chances she will linger and strengthen? Right now it appears that she would stay as a tropical storm only....
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Has anyone noticed the latest . It is NOT showing the big turn to the NE after the second landfall. I wonder if it is trying to start another trend.
ShawnS
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Talk about a race for the coast...wind increase (from pressure drop) or landfall? I'm betting a wind increase as that may only take 2-3 hours. We have 4-5 until landfall occurs. This is going to be close. The storm may weaken a little less over Florida because of the lower pressures.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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The pressure can fall and fall...this storm is SO large it would take several days for the pressure fall to actually make a significant difference...we here in Florida are now facing a major rain (flooding) event...if you live here get your boat in working order...
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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That is the question I am wrestling with tonight...it depends on forward speed and how far south it exits the peninsula...I expect a second landfall as a strong TS, but a Cat 1 is certainly not out of the question, especially if it can stay over the GOM for a while, say 18 hrs or longer. I am expecting a landfall about where is calling for (which I have been calling for since Wed)...Apalachicola/Pt St Joe to PCB to Destin and inland from there.
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Jason Kelley
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Doombot!
Unregistered
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Pressure back up to 960, what gives?
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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What question are you are referring to, Jason???...I lost track of the thread...BTW, I really appreciate your presence here the past few years!!!
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Chopper Dave
Unregistered
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You guys are doing a great job of keeping us informed of the stuff the local channels are downplaying. Thanks.
Just one quick question; what do you all think the effects will be on North/Central Broward County? I'm in Coral Springs, if that helps. Any hurricane force winds?
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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wow - Tampa St. Pete is going to experience probably about 20" of rain or more by the time this is over coupled with the 4 - 6 foot storm surges along the beaches. Talk about a major flooding event - whoa.
My guess is that 20" could lead to seawall collapes because over 60% of those built in the 50's remain on the barrier islands and most don't have weep holes. Considering most of the barrier islands stand at 3' above sea level, we are potentially going to see saturation reached and 4 - 6 foot of water across the islands.. much like a Cat 4 would deliver.
Yikes.. hope I'm wrong.
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