scottsvb1
Unregistered
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rick your chances are higher then shawns, but not by that much, it could on the outside possibility make it close to Pensacola-Panama city, but we will see.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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They have to evacuate the Keys early. Remember, there's only 1 road out of that place. Plus, airports get jammed up with all the tourists trying to fly out.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I believe it must be a super precautionary move to begin evacuating the vacationers down in the keys...
These hurricanes, and the destruction...are in a SMALL window.
Not at all. It takes something like 24-36 hours to evacuate the keys. If you wait too long, it'll be too late. Once Tropical Storm force winds get there, the bridges become difficult or impossible to driver over. Also, there is a very good chance it will hit somewhere along the keys. They need to start getting people out now, or it will be too late.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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a co-worker just got back from lunch and said on the radio they said it was moving more north now. that we weren't outta of the woods but looking better. looks like that as long as it was moving west we were looking better.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Tena you live by the Publix and Belles outlet. I live about 2 miles from you by the Super Target.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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Tena you live by the Publix and Belles outlet. I live about 2 miles from you by the Super Target.
You're exactly right, we're in the new Seven Oaks subdivision. Did you guys keep power with ?
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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They have to evacuate the Keys early. Remember, there's only 1 road out of that place. Plus, airports get jammed up with all the tourists trying to fly out.
Also, where can those people go that isn't a 2 day drive to get to? Florida's southwest coast was decimated by ; Florida's southeast coast was damaged by , and Central Florida, North Florida and the panhandle were all hit hard. Georgia and the Carolinas all the way to New York are underwater. Where is there to go?
Also, has anyone else heard that the subway system in New York City had to shut down from excessive flooding from ? I heard that from several people this morning.
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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After seeing 's graphics, I feel like one of those folks who get the giggles at a funeral. This graphic just sums it up.
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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"Also, where can those people go that isn't a 2 day drive to get to? Florida's southwest coast was decimated by ; Florida's southeast coast was damaged by , and Central Florida, North Florida and the panhandle were all hit hard. Georgia and the Carolinas all the way to New York are underwater. Where is there to go?"
Not to mention the fact that people learned after that you can't just evacuate inland, the storm seems to follow you. And....last but not least, there aren't hotel rooms to be found around here. They are completely full with aid workers, utility workers, and everyone else that came to help with /Frances recovery.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Not to poo poo the maps...but if you look at the satellite floater loop...Ivan is way south and west of the forecasted map on this website.
In my feeble mind and way of thinking...it will traverse about 60-100 miles SOUTH of Jamaica..
that being said..the current latest thinking, and all odds thrown in...gives it a panama city strike...however...WAY WAY to early for that...
worst case scenario..but a REAL possibility....through the Yucatan....unscathed...
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.
A category 2 and a category 4/5 are two very different beasts. Look around you at the damage you sustained.
Now look here:
URL Link
Sorry to nix your pix, but it's killing the bandwidth and expanding the page...
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Looking at the current WV loops it appears to me that the ridge is actually extending westward towards Florida and the Bahamas. How much the trough can weaken that ridge, and where is when that weakening takes place will be a huge key to where he tracks.
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Check the Surf
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Looking at the 48 hour forecast given 2 days ago, at 12Z it was supposed to be at 15 north 71.5 west. This morning, it was at 14.5 and 71.4. That is pretty darn close. In fact, I think that is a good job of forecasting.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Look at what SNONUT says.
Track: is now moving between (285-295 degrees) at 17 mph…this motion is expected for the next 36-48 hours with a gradually increasing northward component through the period.
This will take on a path over or just south (no more than 50 miles south) of Jamaica during Friday afternoon. If this thinking is correct Jamaica will sustain a direct or very near a direct hit by a very intense hurricane.
From there expect a path that will take across extreme western Cuba emerging near 23N/83W Sunday afternoon…this is essentially over the Isle of Youth….before crossing Cuba.
It will cross Cuba at a brisk pace, and the terrain is not that rough…so expect little disruption in the overall circulation.
Once emerging from Cuba will continue NW to NNW taking aim on the Gulf Coast…between the MS/AL border eastward to Cedar Key, Fl…timing looks like late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.
This track is only a very short distance (30-40 miles) to the left of the official TPC track…and about 100 miles to the right of my thinking from Tuesday evening update.
There remains quite a bit of model spread and flip-flop today….the seems clueless with a track across eastern Cuba, east of the Bahamas and out to sea off the east coast. The UKMET is right of my track with a projected landfall along the S.W. Florida coast near Ft. Myers. is across west-central Cuba…up right along the Fl west coast with landfall near Cedar Key. The 18Z ….is as lost in the darkness as the …it cuts across central Cuba with a landfall near Miami. The GDFL has been making wild swings back and forth and is essentially useless at this point. If order for either the or to verify would have to turn sharply Northwest in the next 6 hours…and that is not going to happen.
The 12Z Euro….is right there with the …over central Cuba….right up along the FL east coast with an eventual landfall on the SC coast.
The 12Z Canadian Global is to the left of the UKMET through the Yucatan Channel with an eventual landfall on the Gulf coast of MS/AL. While I'm no big fan of this model and its ability to predict long term motions of tropical cyclones I just mention it so you can see how much spread there is among the global models.
The latest 00Z Medium BAMM is very close to the 18Z …the latest 00Z Deep BAMM is very close to the 18Z only a little slower.
Bottom line…the models have been rightward biased for the last 3-4 days and I think that continues. So my forecast is close to the UKMET and the official TPC 5pm track package.
So there is much model spread, but the bottom line is that a major hurricane will likely threaten the Eastern Gulf coast states late in the weekend and early next week.
Residents from the LA/MS border eastward to the west coast of Florida need to monitor future updates on .
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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char
Unregistered
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yes, living in NJ, the news had the NYC subway on this AM. It was indeed closed down
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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NO WAY... you wish it on someone else.
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Kovacs
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc:
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Hi Everyone,
This is my first post here, but I have been lurking for a while.
My whole family still lives in the Panama City area. Most of my friends live in Orlando and I am in Brevard County Florida. I do not like this storm at all. It looks to me from the models that it could go to the Gulf, just as easy as south Florida.
I have to say that I love this site, and it helps a lot to see other people tracking and giving opinions. I have learned a lot about this stuff. Thank you.
Leslie
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4th Gen Floridian
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I think that there are a lot of wishcasters on here that would love to see some action, but before you say its coming here this and that remember all of the people who are without power "I am one" and the people who lost everything they owned. I think that the has done a good job with the last two hurricanes so, I will go with them on this one too. 
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I agree wholeheartedly, and am sorry to hear of your loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you. My post was trying to point out that the is doing a good job.
I hope I was not the one you were referring to as wishcasting, because that is not something I am engaged in.
Edited by MrSpock (Thu Sep 09 2004 05:27 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I'm not wishcasting here to Texas; I AM wishcasting it away from Florida,though! I'm just trying to point out any possibilities that could somehow keep it away from Florida.
ShawnS
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