Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Lots of rain over towards Orlando too .
Hey LI PHil,
another casualty of is the Miami Dolphin Football game scheduled for Sunday.....
The game will be played Saturday instead because of the expected worsening weather conditions.
Frances turned out to be a very slow moving wet storm.
Really amazing all the water it dropped.
My best to Jamaica.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Thanks Phil.. that's my first name........ so Lisa hitting when.. in October?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Using one of the links on the main page, stormcarib.com storm carib "how close is it to me?"
Quote:
Results for 29.733906N, 84.8701W:
The eye of the storm is about 1284 miles (2067 km) away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 15 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 85.6 hours (3.6 days) to reach you.
Given the current windfield (175 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 73.9 hours (3.1 days).
Now you know how close it is, find out how close it can get!
Results for 29.733906N, 84.8701W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 28.0N, 83.5W or about 145.5 miles (234.1 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast.
Just for 'fun'... If the storm would continue on this track, the
extrapolated closest point (X-CPA) is estimated at 29.9N, 83.8W or about 64.3 miles (103.4 km) from your location, where it can be in about 135.0 hours (be aware that this location is not part of the official forecast and is prone to large errors).
That is very interesting...!
Susie
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hang on!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I saw that video...that's so sad. I am ready for football...I don't think any of my FFL players are playing tonight. So glad I'm on top of things, isn't that fabulous, dahling? 
You know, speaking of The Donald, you'd think that with all that money he has/doesn't have, that he could do something with that hair of his. It's so obnoxious.
Thanks for letting me get off the beaten path...I'm hurricaned out. It's nice to talk about something NORMAL for a change.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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I've been wondering about something today. Does anybody possibly have, or know of a SST map from 1969? I want to see what exactly the water temps were to sustain such a massive hurricane. Anyone have a clue? Im guessin the temps must have been near 90 or so throughtout much of the gulf. Im very concerned with due to the fact that the SST and heat content wont weaken , only shear could do that. But what if the shear isnt there?
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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I'm about to put all of you weather men/women out of work right now...... Charlie hit south of Tampa- Godparents live there..... hit near Vero Beach- mom, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc live there..... My inlaws have a beach house right outside of PCB.....any guesses as to what I'm predicting?
Yeah, where do you live? Cause it better not be PCB
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Kelly
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 12:02 AM)
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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sorry, pal, I left the sunshine state for the peach state when I was 18. Been an Atlantian for the last 8 years. I don't think hurricanes can make it up this far. But, I would gladly accept if he would spare Fl
There may be a good 20-30 things you can gladly call me, but PAL ain't one of them...LOL. best to all your family in the sunshine state!
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Kelly
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 12:07 AM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Hurricane Intermediate Advisory Number 30a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 09, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane continues west-northwestward
toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...little change in
strength...
hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from
Matanzas eastward.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane .
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane was located by an
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 15.2
north...longitude 72.8 west or about 325 miles...520 km...
southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...21 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr... with
higher gusts. remains a dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated by the hurricane
hunter was 923 mb...27.26 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of .
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...15.2 N... 72.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office. In the United
States...hurricane local statements are being issued by the weather
forecast office in Key West regarding evacuations currently in
progress.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
Forecaster Beven
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Do they really have any clue as to where other than the Florida itself? The projections change several times a day. It makes it even more nerve wracking- OMG it's coming at us to it's not and back again.
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When it rains, it pours...
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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latest vortex message showed a pressure of 924 mb and 129 kt wind in NW quad.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
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HadItinOrlando
Unregistered
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I live in Longwood, a northern suburb of Orlando. We went to Atlanta for . I went to Home Depot today to buy plywood in order to board up for . I can't leave again. Home Depot was selling plywood like crazy. Most of the homes in my sub-division are already boarded up. Those that aren't (like mine) will be on Saturday. This is growing very tiresome.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Ya'll should be buying all of your supplies from Lowes!!!! My husband and brother in law are in Orlando as I type restocking the shelves with their "hurricane palletts".
I must say that Atlanta didn't see too much of . I was expecting a down pour and basicly all the sky did was spit at us for 2 days.
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Kelly
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Storm : Observed By AF #977
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, September 09, 2004 18:29:00
Position of the center: 15° 09' N 72° 43' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2429m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 129KT (148.35mph) From 067°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 013nm (14.95miles) From Center At Bearing 324°
Minimum pressure: 924mb (27.29in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being C10
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Flight level winds were measured in the ~NE quadrant....
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Are they not doing a complete update? "STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA".
STORM SURGE ONLY 3-5 FEET? Hmmm...
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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889
URNT12 KNHC 092329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2329Z
B. 15 DEG 09 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2429 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 067 DEG 129 KT
G. 324 DEG 013 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 9 C/ 3105 M
J. 18 C/ 3063 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 1109A OB 19
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NW QUAD 2324Z.
I don't know, something is messed up with quad
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Looking a these models, wouldn't be suprised to see shift the track a little to the right again at 11pm.
Models
The Spaghetti run of the models suggests a florida strike at this time.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Phil- I'll call you pal anytime I want
Any chance anyone is on here from the PCB area? If so, have they started to clean up the strip yet? I'ld hate to see a cat v come through there with all of that construction and debris.
(Doing best Paul Simon) I will call you Bettye, you can call me (P)al. Seriously, though, JK (the real met), Coop (our newest sheriff/mod) and Andy1Tom are all from PC or PCB. They'll probably clue you in...Bettye 
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Kelly
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 12:24 AM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Those winds in the NW quadrant equate to about 135mph at the surface. The pressure has risen slightly since this afternoon. Overall, is holding his own I'd say.
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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I saw on weather reports that ridge will weaken sat. as trof digs deeper. latest satt. photos look more to nw . this would take path farther right. by the way reagan was not inept, he ended the cold war.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It is because they don't really know. The track will continue to flip flop and change right up until a day or two before landfall. That is why they have already started evacuating the Keys, since it takes at least 2 days to do that.
This is from the 5PM Discussion, and "thereafter" refers to after 2-3 days.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIVERGE.
Bill
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