Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
|
|
Good morning Jason,
Yesterday (maybe two days ago now), I believe you said you would give us your opinion of 's US landfall...anxiously waiting to hear your thoughts...
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
maybe we can get clark to come down for a few brews and he can say warm cold hot west east....
|
scottsvb1
Unregistered
|
|
The also now turns to the Big Bend area on the oz run. Rest of the models including the and have a south or sw florida landfall. is off more to the nw making landfall in the Panhandle. I would like to see the Ukmet when it comes out. You have it yet jason? I dont.
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
Clark---I'll be looking for your posts here since you are in the same boat as I'm in. You seem to make this very difficult subject more easily understandable to us that are very new at this kind of predicting.
Many Thanks 
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
1) I have made a few post in some previous threads today with my thoughts..I am convinced of a FL landfall, with a potential Panhandle/Big Bend strike being the most likely scenario, but not by much over a Peninsula hit. For more detailed discussion you can look in the last couple of topics.
Scott...not yet...It takes a while to get UKMET output over here...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
Can you tell me more about the panhandle predictions? Where do I find the Candian model? Or better said, what is it called so I can find it myself.
|
Bev
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
|
|
Quote:
- how many of us here have been in Florida all our lives? I have, for 52 years.... Can I do a poll? -
The poll should have included "Born here", I just had to pick 20+ years, which could have been a migration.
-Bev
__________________
7th Generation Floridian
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
This link has it:
Tropical Cyclogenesis Model Output
Scroll down until you see "WEB PAGES"
Click on the 2nd link (Tropical Cyclogenesis Model Output) and you'll find 5 models there.
Hope that helps!
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
" I have made a few post in some previous threads today with my thoughts..I am convinced of a FL landfall, with a potential Panhandle/Big Bend strike being the most likely scenario, but not by much over a Peninsula hit."
_________________________________________________
How likely is most likely? Can you say that your fairly confident? Mildly confident?
I think that I'm going to have to change my login to -"Question Girl !!"
|
Bev
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
|
|
Quote:
This thing is jumping all over the place. Looks like a student driver.
Skeetobyte thanks for the graphics, you have done a great job! However, I take great exception to the most recent graphic. It puts me right in the Eastern eyewall, which I presume means I'd be receiving some very nasty storm surge. In addition to horrific winds.
Could you please edit the graphic to show spinning back toward the Cape Verde Islands? Maybe they'll stop sending them our way.
-Bev
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
Colleen---Now I'm going to show how green I am at this. I've seen this same kind of model info before but it all looks greek to me. I guess that what I'm looking for is more graphic. Like some spagetti models but not quite so spagetti crazy. Can you tell me how to make that greek into something that I can undersand better? 
|
ewilby
Unregistered
|
|
Predictions for this Hurricane are about 50% more accurate than those of Hurricane Charlie as told by steve Jerve (meteorologist) based on lesser wind variables for this storm. Forcasters predict a more "stable front conversion". Chances of Cental Florida landfall is 75%. 
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
My understanding is the models are now pay per view and are used by the METS and they are under threat of law suits if they even hint of what is on the supermodels.
Another reason to dislike .
"ha ha"
at least the AVN is still free........:
|
ewilby
Unregistered
|
|
Read my post...if it helps.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Try this one:
Spaghetti Map with
Maybe that will make it a little easier for you...I hope!
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
I lived in Orlando in the late 80's early 90's when Steve was our Met. He seemed to be right most of the time. You must live near Tampa.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Steve Jerve is my favorite met here in Tampa. They also use the Model which did very well with and ...which they didn't tell us until AFTER the fact. It was dead on. He may have more info than we know.
On a side note...I was a volunteer at WFLA in the HelpLine Center. I got to tour the Weather Center and those guys (and gals) were so very nice. I was firing questions off left and right and he showed me how different things work, how they read things, he even taught me how to look at a blank green map and point towards Florida instead of California, LOL! It was a lot of fun, that's for sure! Steve Jerve is a class act and he shoots straight from the hip. He never talks about how great HE did, unlike some others. He just says "It's my job and that's what I'm here for."
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Sissy
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
|
|
Just a head's up...The models have shifted East again...to the right.
Sissy
|
mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
Thanks, It's much easier to understand. I looked at it just a minute ago and it seemed to me that all of it was shifted way to the right. What do you think?
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
At this rate, be in South Florida and then the Bahama's.....
Prob not but the models keep moving.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
