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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Tired of hurricanes... [Re: mud1967]
      #24692 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:59 AM

Quote:

I lived in Orlando in the late 80's early 90's when Steve was our Met. He seemed to be right most of the time. You must live near Tampa.




Yes, Steve used to do "back yard" weather. Remember that one??
He's paid his dues.....


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 131
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Tampa Bay Area - Flood Waters [Re: mud1967]
      #24693 - Fri Sep 10 2004 02:02 AM

Here are the local stats for Rivers in the Tampa Bay area.
The first column is the name of the river and below it, the town it is affecting. The first number "Flood Stage", the third number is the current "Observed Stage" These numbers are in Feet. Most are predicted to fall by at least two feet between now and Tuesday, but this still leaves most of them well above Flood Stage.

For example, the Cyrpess Creek at Worthington's flood stage is 8 feet, but it is currently at 13.4 feet!

FLOOD OBSERVED
LOCATION STG STG

CYPRESS CREEK
WORTHINGTON 8 13.4

PEACE
BARTOW 8 10.8
ZOLFO SPRIN 16 21.7
ARCADIA 11 16.3

HILLSBOROUGH
MORRIS BRID 32 34.3
ZEPHYRHILLS 10 12.5

ALAFIA
LITHIA 13 16.9

MYAKKA
MYAKKA STAT 7 9.5

HORSE CREEK
ARCADIA 12 15.4

WITHLACOOCHEE
TRILBY 12 13.9
CROOM 9 9.6

LITTLE MANATEE
WIMAUMA 11 13.8
MANATEE
MYAKKA HEAD 11 12.2
ANCLOTE RIVER
ELFERS 20 21.6

-Bev


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Maps [Re: mud1967]
      #24694 - Fri Sep 10 2004 02:08 AM

Yes, it looks like they have shifted to the right again...not just some of them, but most of them.
This has been going on since Tuesday. They're not fluctuating as much and they really haven't deviated much from left to right, either.

Also noted that the 2am advisory says that now the hurricane force winds extend out 50 miles from the center. It was 30 just 3 hours ago.

Will see in the morning what happens. I'm going to bed. Ivan will still be there in the morning, but my sanity won't if I don't get some sleep.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 131
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Model Shift [Re: Sissy]
      #24695 - Fri Sep 10 2004 02:12 AM

Are the models picking up on the mess (ridge/trough?)we've had west of Tampa? I've been watching it on radar all day. It was massive most of the day but has slowly drifted northward. It looks clear out there now, but that could be nighttime effect, sun kicks in, tstorms kick up.

Is it supposed to settle in and stay in our area thereby making Ivan turn East sooner?


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Model Shift [Re: Bev]
      #24696 - Fri Sep 10 2004 02:38 AM

Hi colleen.....you been doing a great job here. I been watching your posts.
Anyways to give ya a inside view, we here in florida really need to get ready for this.3rd time might be the biggie for west central florida. The models (even though some have went to the right, GFS now is more left with the rest outside of the NOGAPS. I think the NOGAPS is now the outliner. I dont see Ivan getting past 85w, infact maybe not even 84w. I wont give out a landfall area until Friday afternoon or night but will say this ;we are going to get at the least Frances type winds Monday evening into Tuesday night at the least. Hurricane force is hard to pinpoint. To me, if i had to throw out a guess( which of course isnt my forcast yet) would be 2 scenerios. 1 A path from near Keywest or just west of there, moving NNE up around Naples area -Monday evening- thru center of the state and out just south of Daytona and making a 2nd landfall in south caronlina on Weds night. 2nd is still just around Key west or just west of there and moving N to near 27N and 83.5W and then turning more NNE or NE and moving inland around the Pasco-citrus county area on Tuesday morning, exiting around St Augustine-Jacksonville area and threatning the S Caronlina coast on Weds night (abouts). The models of the last 5-6 runs have moved left and right but generally come better together thru Monday somwhere around the west coast of florida. Worst case scenerio is the 2nd 1 for you and tampabay. Also yes it could be between the 2 solutions. There is still a smal chance of going up near Panama city and smaller of a glancing blow to the Keys and Miami and up through Grand Bahama......well I have about 18 hours or so to put out my 3 day landfall forcast. This was just a insight.


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Model Shift seems in agreement [Re: scottsvb1]
      #24699 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:30 AM

too much agreement in those models..they just differon where they start the nne turn from

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
so i suppose in the end a lot has to do with where exactly it crosses cuba ..how far west it gets before the messy ridge gives out

take care.. reading and listening
bobbi


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
I need to go back to bed [Re: scottsvb1]
      #24700 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:30 AM

Wake up looking for good news. What do I find? Another shift east from NHC and a special comment headline from Joe B talking about a Florida Pennisula hit. I guess I should just roll back over and hide under my covers for a few days.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: I need to go back to bed [Re: Rasvar]
      #24701 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:34 AM

Well, there might be a silver lining...the latest vortex data suggest Ivan is weakening as of right now
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409101122

--Lou


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: I need to go back to bed [Re: recmod]
      #24702 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:41 AM

This storm is just resting and biding its time. I have seen too many nature signs that says that Central Florida and other areas are in for some weather. The cicadas were screaming yesterday and the day before in broad daylight. I can not find a single fire ant bed above ground, there are other signs that the atmosphere is getting ready. The severe weather last night in Polk again was exactly like the storm we had on Tuesday before Frances arrived. The lightening was too close and lasted from about 5pm until long after I had retired at 10. The scene is totally the same. I cant tell you where the hurricane will make landfall, I can tell you that it will effect Central Florida.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: I need to go back to bed [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #24704 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:51 AM

This mornings comments in Melbournes forecast discussion are insightful:


MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE...
IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET
CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH
IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE
CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS
AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS
PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT
PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE. AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/
INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH Ivan PASSING AS
CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT
UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA...
AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE
WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
PLAYS OUT.


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Wind Field Maps [Re: Rasvar]
      #24724 - Fri Sep 10 2004 09:25 AM

Skeeto...did you create one of your maps for a landfall in the Naples, FL area?

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