BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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They are lucky...that wall is just skimming the coast. Can't imagine that passing over the island.
Just lost the radio stream from there
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of 0830Z-0430edt, both the Hurricane Hunter WC-130, and the NOAA 9 Gulfstream IV are doing recon. The Gulfstream is tasked with high altitude dropsonde release and gathering high altitude data, while the WC-130, is conducting normal mission tasks.
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jannette
Registered User
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our prayers are also with those in s path.
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jannette
Registered User
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when do you get the info that these people collect-- and is it released to the publicquickly?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You can use this site for the info, and the decoding of it as well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I'm really not agreeing with the 5am track. Looks like it's going wide West of it to me. I also think during the it's going to suck in a big gulp of dry air that's right along the Caymens.
What all this means I'm not sure. Maybe a slow down and turn to the North to get back on the track.
Edit: Now I see most of the computer models are more in line with what I'm currently seeing - more NW path perhaps even skirting Caymens to the West. I hope the North component of the track kicks in at that point and does not follow those model paths into the middle of Florida.
Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:46 AM)
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
I'm really not agreeing with the 5am track. Looks like it's going wide West of it to me. I also think during the it's going to suck in a big gulp of dry air that's right along the Caymens.
What all this means I'm not sure. Maybe a slow down and turn to the North to get back on the track.
Edit: Now I see most of the computer models are more in line with what I'm currently seeing - more NW path perhaps even skirting Caymens to the West. I hope the North component of the track kicks in at that point and does not follow those model paths into the middle of Florida.
For as much of a wobbel as we had last night which was similiar to the wobble could easily happen again as its heading NW or N or even NE in time..i don;t thinke veryone should get all excited and think that this is means its defintely going to stay west. Be careful folks and don't try and micromanage a cane..doesn't work that way.
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Renee
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I "discovered" this site 2 days ago and I love it! Sitting in Tallytown in a home w/ 11ft ceilings and all glass to the South...hope the track changes before Wed. am., or comes ashore as a T.S. or less. Referring to posts in the night...Dave Schwarz is hilarious to watch...I'm not surprised he released questionable stats.
BTW...I can't believe how many people are online at this time in the morning...it's good to know there are other Larks like me!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest WV loops are indicating the ridge/ trough combo over the FL straights and Bahamas has nudged it's way across most of the island of Cuba. (Cooobah-Phil). This could be a problem for the Yucatan Peninsula as well as the Northern FL coast. is moving just north of due west, and without a recurve soon he could end up closer to the central GOM.
*Forgot to mention Dave. I noticed not long after I posted the update, that Dave disappeared off camera, and wasn't seen the rest of his shift. I wonder what happened. You don't think somebody slipped him a hoax recon report, do you?
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:11 AM)
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Renee
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Yes, even though I don't consider myself any kind of weather guru, when I looked at WV imagery...the ridge does not seem to be fulfilling it's predicted destiny. I also wondered if the front or whatever it is coming in from the West seems to be slowing down?
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
You get a nice look at some drier air that hopefully will rough up a little. The small blob that's sort of fallen off the end of the Atlantic Ridge and is over the Caymens. Is there some softness of the ridge over the gulf stream area? It looks like some reinforcement coming in from the East though?
I presume that "front" (for lack of a better term) over the SE U.S. is going away in the next few days and allow to go northward.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The cyclonic circulation around 30N and 70W, was moving west over night and pushing the ridge along with it. The trough, from Tampico, MX to near Pensacola, looks pretty solid now, although I did notice some convection popping through it, now and then. The cloudiness/ water vapor that had been over the western half of the Cuba, has moved to the west and southwest over the last few hours.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For some strange reason, recon just did the second Vortex fix in 30 minutes. There were 2 changes. They are no longer reporting a concentric eyewall (double eyewalls). Eye is now Closed with a 30nm diameter.
**Pressure change** was 925mb at 0916Z.
Has now dropped to 923mb at the 0947Z fix.
Maybe the mets can answer this one. Was the pressure drop directly related to the eyewall closing. Kinda like a vacumn leak!
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here is a wide angle WV loop. Showing all the systems. The areas inside/ surrounded by the blue lines, are generally Not favored for thunderstorm formation. Due to drier air in them.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.html
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Yeah, the eye is shutting down. Wow, it looks like that drier air is getting stronger over Cuba down to the Caymans. I can see storms firing up along Cuba due to .
Going to be interesting today watching the interaction of vs. that drier air.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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From first hand experience we saw thunderstorms with but not with . There usually aren't too many thunderstorms associated with hurricanes is what I have been told. Does this have to do more with the side of the storm that presents itself to you?
Quote:
Here is a wide angle WV loop. Showing all the systems. The areas inside/ surrounded by the blue lines, are generally Not favored for thunderstorm formation. Due to drier air in them.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.html
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I was looking at our 5 day forcast here not much rain mentioed Tues. mainly and no change in tem. makes me wonder how strong is this troff.It is definitly not the likes of what pulled up we got cool.Then you throw in this recent motion with being further S?By the way the last 6hrs moving 14mph ridge is getting stronger.The ULL to the E is pushing the ridge to a SW motion.Ivan will turn just when.
new cor. 8:00am .02'N and .4'W back to 8mph a true WNW movement
Edited by javlin (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:05 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Unregistered
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You are right about the crews, I am in Tampa and was on 275 N and about 20 Util. trucks went by me in a convoy, not local, out of state. Thanks to everyone for all the knowledge and perspective. Great site!!!!!!!!!!!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
The model discussion notes that the ETA and initialed too far to the SW. Keep that in mind, when looking at their forecasts. Also, the ETA has been a western outlier the whole way with this one.
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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They just posted a new thread. Pack your bags and move to the front page!!
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Go Boilermakers
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