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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: mud1967]
      #25493 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM

I believe anything beyond 48 hours is a shot in the dark right now, especially with Ivan's slow movement. This doesn't mean complacency, but just stay alert.
Too bad that so many people made decisions about Monday way back on Friday!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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JackF
Unregistered




Is it me [Re: BabyCat]
      #25494 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM

Looking at the animated model thing, it looks like the models have been going too far right, even since Ivan developed, and even now it's further west than the models from yesterday suggested? What's up with this, could it go into the Yucatan?

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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25495 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM

Thanks Revup and Belleami. What is the Atlantic High doing and does anyone anticipate any change path prediction based on what it is doing (this must be like trying to herd cats!

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25496 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM

Heck, I'm not even sure I wil take my plywood down this month, let alone right now. Too punch drunk as it is from two prior hits. Granted, it is a little depressing living in the "Fortress of Darkness"

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25497 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM

Yes he is moving but much slower than before. The steering currents will continue to get weaker for the next say day in the forecast period then it will increase and he should regain speed once again.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25498 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:38 PM

I'm just trying to make a plan if I do need to leave. My parents. What the kids and me to go to them but that Pensacola!!

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: Keith234]
      #25499 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:41 PM

Interesting water vapor loop. You can see the edge of Ivan at the bottom, and the jet stream coming in behind the trough to the northwest. Sure looks like the jet stream is moving south faster than Ivan is making any northward progress. I don't think they anticipated him moving so far west.

Water Vapor Loop


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Is it me [Re: JackF]
      #25500 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:55 PM

Quote:

What's up with this, could it go into the Yucatan?




This is doubtful, but it is a possibility. I recall Hurricane Mitch several years ago was consistently forecasted to turn north into the Gulf. It never verified and ended up in Central America because of a stronger-than-forecasted ridge north of the hurricane. Of couse, later Mitch reformed in the BOC and struck SW FL, but as a minimal disorganized TS. Mitch, however, was farther south than Ivan and Ivan is therefore unlikely to follow such a path, but I'm just throwing the possibility out there.

As I mentioned earlier today, we still must wait 48 hours before coming up with a forecast with even the slightest level of confidence. If you notice, the NHC's forecast has consistently pushed landfall further into the future. This cannot continue too much longer before we have to start re-evaluating the entire track.

This is a wait and see situation. There are so many variables that are too difficult to predict this far in advance. I wouldn't place much faith in the computer models and the NHC track at this point. It still looks like an E GOM event, probably in line with the NHC track, but I am getting a feeling that this storm is going to cause us many forecasting headaches before it is all said and done.

As form me, I'm ready to put up my plywood shutters here in Tampa. Nobody should be letting their guard down yet.

God Bless,
Ronn


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Is it me [Re: Ronn]
      #25501 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:56 PM

WHATS YOUR OPINION OF THIS? Recent Recon reports show that Ivan has increased in intensity, cat5 with winds of 165. Wow. This thing is a monster. 913mb Pressure, crazy.

Models have completely shifted west. And I mean like Panhandle style, and all the models. None of them take Ivan over the peninsula anymore. Interesting. I'm not going to buy that quite yet. Overnight Ivan made quite a jog, or leap, to the west. Spared Jamaica and I believe this impacted the models too much, as well as other factors. Since then the hurricane has already tracked slightly north of the forecasted track. I note however, looking at the latest loops that another westward wobble is in the works. The more it goes west, the more time it has over water, the more difficult the forecast will be because of the future NNE movement of the system.

Ivan will still impact the west coast of Florida in my opinion. Once it starts turning north it wont stop. Eventually NNE and NE. In the NHC official forecast they have it recurving to the NE later in the period. It will do this sooner than what they say.



As you can see the trough is in the Midwest and heading east. This will give Ivan the nudge north and eventually NNE. The high has stopped progreessing West and the ULL has not. This wil weaken the ridge further and allow Ivan a more northerly course as well. It's just a matter of time. I know it's going west, thats great for now. But looks are decieving. It will turn. Forecasting a cat5 hurricane is pretty hard. They tend to create their own environments and go where ever they want. That rail on the left side of Charley is coming down from the midwest (trough). The High on right of Charley will weaken. Again, just a matter of time. Once this thing starts turning I believe we'll see the models fly back over to the right. When it turns I believe it will be a pretty sharp turn not a gradual one like the NHC forecasts. I also disagree with the due north movement the NHC forecasts. It would take on hell of a ridge to Ivan's east to keep him on that path. Yes there is a new ridge in the Gulf, it will not build in to a strong one. The models, now that there is a ridge there, forecast it to be there, hence move the hurricane more west. That will not happen. High will weaken.

Intensity? Who cares it's already a cat5! Landfall in the US I will still stick with my mid cat3. Lets hope that shear is there in the Gulf.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: tenavilla]
      #25502 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:01 PM

That low coming in from the pacific looks like it could be a severe weather canidate. I agree with you, they didn't except this much westward movement

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
warm water, landfall [Re: kelcot]
      #25503 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:02 PM

It generally needs to be 80 and above, but to sustain a cat 5, mid to upper 80's is necessary. I don't understand the NHC forecast for weakening on its first inland plot. I thought the rule of thumb in normal conditions was to halve the winds in 24 hours.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: JackF]
      #25504 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

I guess stalled wasn't the right description, slowed down a lot is more like it. In the 8PM the NHC is saying it has been "wobbling west". They put the average speed at 9mph and the pressure is down to 912.

This statement is mind boggling:


COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

Bill


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25505 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

No.... I was talking to someone in Miami.
Been through enough storms to know complacency is NOT ok and especially with a monster like this.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25506 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

I think part of it is what is not seen. I do think they believe that the system will be down around cat 2 once landfall occurs.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25507 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM

oh, I was under the impression it was forecast to be at least cat 3.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25508 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM

>>> I do think they believe that the system will be down around cat 2 once landfall occurs.

Who? The NHC? I can only pray he backs down to a 2, but I got a bad feeling this is at least a 3 on landfall...anywhere. Possibly higher...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25509 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:11 PM

The last couple frames (from 2245 to 2315 UTC) definitely show more of a WNW movement. Of course, it seems to be doing that then going back to W, so we'll see if it continues. I'm still thinking it might not make that next NHC forecast point.

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richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25510 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM

Juse wanted you guys to know that I have a friend in Barbados who owns 3 charter boats and he is getting word from Grenada that it is almost a complete breakdown of law and order. They are trying to get him to bring supplies in on his boats but the word he's getting is pirates are attacking and stealing all the supplies before the boats can get them in. Prisoners are loose. mental patients are loose, and an American student is trying to get him to come over and get her and her friends out of there. He doesn't know what he's going to do yet. It's too bad it comes to this after one of these storms passes thru down there. By the way, this guy is a good friend of mine and a very reliable source. I totally believe what he is saying. Too bad..i feel so sorry for them.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25511 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM

I don't think there is enough modern data on CATV storms for anyone professional or not to say what this storm is going to do. I believe that every one has been following the storm rather than forecasting ahead of it. This is one for the books as well as Charley and Frances. The weather is writing another entire way of looking at things. I do believe that we will have enough time to prepare as best we can given the shortage of supplies in Florida. But, I was looking at the WV loops in the Gulf of mexico and the way the WV is moving from southwest to northeast has me concerned that Ivan could join that wave train in over Cedar Key. I am no expert and I am perfectly willing to be corrected on this.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
So, what do you think? [Re: Ronn]
      #25512 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:17 PM

I'm curious since things seem to be changing and I am a firefighter, not a meteriologist, are you thinking that with Ivan's slower movement and the trough coming south so rapidly, that we may be looking at a shift east in the projected track? Just curious. Thanks! :?:

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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