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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Shear! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25805 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:07 AM

The models continue to push the northern turn to the west with each run, and I am wondering now if it is at all possible for a Louisiana or Texas landfall

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Shear! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25806 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:09 AM

I live in Tallahassee and my parents live in Pensacola. Do you think that it might be possible for both of us to have Ivan effects?

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




New Orleans NWS [Re: mud1967]
      #25807 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:13 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/previous2.php?pil=LIXAFDLIXW&version=0

This pretty much sums up what I said in my earlier post.

ShawnS


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Fred08
Unregistered




Re: Shear! [Re: Rabbit]
      #25808 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:16 AM

looking at sat and obs.... shear is starting to take effect in gulf, in response to weakness coming down across the mid and western gulf coast states....also note that the ULL east of florida is now moving ne..... i am thinking we will see a more north movement in the next few hrs, just clipping the cuban coast and than a ne turn.... it all depends on how a 915mb (IVAN) low responds to the features to the north.....yes it appears in 25-36 hrs Ivan has a bigger wind field and is much larger.... how much this will help when he gets into the gulf will determine i think on how much of a shear beating he will take..... i am thinking a northerly movement should start within 12-24hrs.... i also think Ivan just finished a eye wall replacement....there is strong convection on se side in last hr... recon is almost to storm.... should have vortex soon

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MikeG
Unregistered




EYE vis. [Re: Fred08]
      #25810 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:29 AM

I think Ivan eye is on the comeback this morning. Looking at vis in last hour, i am seeing what looks like another stadium effect coming back, which could be a sign of eyewall replacement is over. Yes i do think forward speed has picked up! The caymans are still taking a hit right now, winds should be over 115mph and they should be getting large swells too! Recon is dropping in alt now, so they should be at outer bands now....

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spook
Unregistered




Re: EYE vis. [Re: MikeG]
      #25811 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:40 AM

I think they misnamed Ivan as Ivan the terrible,should have been Ivan the island skipper,maybe he likes large land masses>

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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re: Shear! [Re: Rabbit]
      #25812 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:40 AM

Louisiana is becoming more and more of a possibility as each hour goes by. Texas is probably a long shot, as least for now.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Shear! [Re: teal61]
      #25813 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:45 AM

New thread started.

Bill


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: EYE vis. [Re: MikeG]
      #25814 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:47 AM

Ok guys this is an opinion and it is based on my having gone outside and looked up at the sky. We have large puffy clouds at the lower levels but we also have hurricane blow off skittering across the area too. For those of you who are new. I am in Polk County. TampaBay area schools have been closed for Monday some for Tuesday as well. I am believing that although we won;t get a hurricane tomorrow or Tuesday, I am concerned that people will start to go back to life as usual and we will get hit on Wednesday and Thursday. It is not anything I can scientifically prove. I hope I am wrong. But, I have been noticing the Cedar Key thing myself for about 24 hours and I am no expert. I wish they would leave the politics out of this so we could get some real information.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: EYE vis. [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25819 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:51 AM

I agree - I'm in Naples. Collier County EM has just advised no new actions today but continue to monitor. Schools are closed tomorrow (Collier schools are used as shelters; HS near my house is being used for those under mandatory evac from Charlotte Co as they have no place to go). I am still very uneasy about this one.

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willy
Unregistered




Re: New Orleans NWS [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25877 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:40 PM

Shawn, If you remember on my post a day or two ago,I said that it would end up in the middle of the Gulf and make a turn toward the NE. I still believe this will be the track Ivan will take. I think it will make landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachacola. Willy in Lapalce ,La.

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