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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Clark]
      #26233 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:40 PM

Thanks Clark for your excellent thorough discussion! Going to be an interesting week! I agree with "rules" from last night waiting for Ivan to move through the Yucatan channel - looks like reality in 24 hours.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26234 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:41 PM

Real quick before Mike pulls the plug.
Pull the plug on the pinball machine.
NHC directions are averaged over a period of time.
Satellites are going off line in about 20 minutes til 230am EDT
Mouth of the Mississippi is probably within 65nm of the western most track point IF he goes west and recurves.
Thanks Mike

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 12 2004 11:44 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: MikeC]
      #26235 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:42 PM

Geraldo had JB on, and he's calling for a MS/AL landfall. Meanwhile, the NHC keeps saying that they are keeping their forecast track to the east of the guidance models.
The BAMM model (as mentioned in the last thread) has it making a sharp right hand turn into Florida. Not sure if I buy that one at all. Time will tell. We're getting into a period where we've been tracking this thing for almost an entire week and we don't know anymore than we did a week ago.
I heard Warren Madden talking to Geraldo and he said that they saw/encountered winds at 180-200mph at the SURFACE , plus hail and lightning. EEK. This is an unbelievable storm.
At this point, I think you could put up a map of the entire GOM region, throw a dart and have a 50/50 chance of being right.

The other thing that really grabbed my attention was this, which is from the 11pm advisory:

Quote:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.




They are now saying that this storm is almost as large as Frances. I'm not saying this will happen, but if things break down and the ridge actually DOES begin to push this thing to the north and the track is 100 miles offshore of Tampa Bay, we're in for a world of hurt.
Wouldn't it be the strangest thing if I had to call my Mom and tell her to evacuate down here? At this point, it wouldn't surprise me.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26236 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:45 PM

Jeff,
How much do you want to bet that they close all of the schools in the metro area and outward. People will not go into work. It's like a snow day in September. Not to mention there won't be any bread, milk, or eggs left......LOL

--------------------
Kelly


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: Pensacola Area [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26237 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:08 AM

so i was confused...Cantorre tends to be where the hurricanes hit or has the canny luck of missing the storm?

thanks,
dani

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Pensacola Area [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26238 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:11 AM

HMMM, I believe Phil said No Wishcasting allowed.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Site Fix [Re: danielw]
      #26239 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:13 AM

It's done, it won't blow up until tomorrow hopefully.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Site Fix [Re: MikeC]
      #26240 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:16 AM

I'm kinda getting sick of saying thanks Mike...Maybe I'll just make it my "signature." You rock...das all.

BTW...SC just made his first edit...Way to go Coop!

Actually, turns out it was ED Someone somewhere put up a really obnoxious post...we need a creamer...only kidding...DONT DO THAT....

You guys have been fan f----in tastic this year. Makes my job (if you can call it that--more like a labor of love) a piece of cake. I do requre some sleep however...

Saying prayers before going to bed...Dear Lord...please spare the entire gulf coast any bad trappings from Ivan...she won't heed my pleas, but I gotta try, no?

This mother is going to try men's souls...mark my words...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 12:28 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Site Fix [Re: LI Phil]
      #26241 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:24 AM

Looks like it made a good difference. Or some of the loading has been shed. Thanks again Mike-Nap time!

Latest (hour Old) fix has pressure at 919mb and eye at 32nm closed wall. There seems to be a problem with the NHC data feeds I'm using. Anyone else having problems?


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Site Fix [Re: MikeC]
      #26242 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:27 AM

Mike, you're doing a great job with the site...thanx again. Your comment "Hopefully it won't blow up until tomorrow" just cracked me up and gave me the giggles.

I'm hurricaned out.......

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: kelcot]
      #26243 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:31 AM

The timing of the worst part of the storm to hit Atlanta will be rush-hour....I would bet a dollar to a donut that no one in Northern Georgia will go to school on Thursday or Friday, and the Home Depot's and Lowe's will all have a run on them by Wednesday night....And don't even get me started on the effect this storm coming over Atlanta is gonna have on air travel nationwide......

Of course if the power poops out in Downtown like it did last week, we won't have the GEMA web site to refer to, but what else is new in the home of the great Zig-zag...lol

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Site Fix [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26244 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:33 AM

One last thing I've been staring at tonight and looking at recon reports. I have a feeling Ivan's (for lack of a better term) violently trying to form a new large eye, maybe like 30-60 miles across. Major updrafts and such while he does it, it's very weird. It's doing so as a Category 5 storm, and the lightning and hail. It'll be interesting to see what we wake up to. I'd bet a larger system with a huge eye.

- Mike


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Site Fix [Re: MikeC]
      #26245 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:34 AM

I'm guessing that would be a very bad thing, no?

Just wondering because I always thought that the larger the eye got the less strong a storm was, but then again I'm not a meterologist, I just played on on TV....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Mon Sep 13 2004 12:39 AM)


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26246 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:35 AM

I was in 7th or 8th grade when Andrew hit Miami. Granted, I lived in Vero, but it still got nasty there. Anyway, Andrew came in at night and we were in school the next day. They never closed school for hurricanes then.

--------------------
Kelly


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Pensacola Area [Re: danielw]
      #26247 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:36 AM

Well, for now the track hasn't changed much; the motion is still to the WNW and it *appears* that Tampa Bay *may* be spared a 3rd hit. However, it's still 3/5-365 days out as far as I can tell, so I'm not letting my guard down. That being said, me staying up until 4:30am is not helping my nerves nor is it changing Ivan's track, so I might as well just get some sleep and see where it's at in the morning.

That being said, I will say prayers for all the people in the path of this storm...from Cuba to N.O. and east. I hate even thinking about this thing hitting ANYONE as a Cat 5. I know it has to hit somewhere at sometime, but I don't know where. The only thing I can say is that I surely hope it's not a Cat 5 no matter WHERE it hits.
See ya in the morning...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Site Fix [Re: MikeC]
      #26248 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:40 AM

Mike,

Don't know about you...I'm only staring at computer feeds here...you must truly be exhausted...

Let's ALL go to bed (except for Danny...little bastid is at work-I believe-sorry if you're not Dan)

I'm certainly no met (gee, couldn't y'all tell). But I bet this sumbeatch is ~900 at 8:00 am.

And...he's redrawing all the rules too.

A'ight [tm HF...where is he BTW].

Will monitor for a few more but it's up to all y'all as far as posting...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Site Fix [Re: LI Phil]
      #26249 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM

well, i guess it's just you and me, Jeff........
My husband left a few hours ago for PCB to board up the beach house. I'm bored............can't sleep..............

--------------------
Kelly


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Rick and his Cat 5 prediction [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26250 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM

Today marks the 25th anniv. of Hurricane Frederick....I live in Mobile and have watched Rick post after post saying Mobile will be a Cat 5. Looks like his wish might come true or close to a cat 5. I haven't seen a post from Rick in awhile.....I'm just wondering if Rick is satisfied now?

Southern4sure


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Site Fix [Re: MikeC]
      #26251 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM

Yes, Mike...it'll be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning. I'm not even sure I want to turn on the TV. As large as thing is growing, we may very well see impacts from LA to West Central Florida.
My heart skips a couple of beats thinking about what it might do inland, not just here, but all along the eastern part of the US. I don't know how well people are prepared for something like this. It's a little unnerving to say the least.
The other day I was scoffing at the guy with the Dyna-Gel. Now I'm hoping he DOES IT.

I just wish the heck he would do whatever he was gonna do and DO IT ALREADY!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Site Fix [Re: LI Phil]
      #26252 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM

I resemble that remark. Where is HF anyway, haven't seen his sig. in a while.
I'll keep an eye on Ivan's eye while you two shut your eyes.
Got more eyes in that sentence than a potatoe.
I thought everyone had gone to bed Kelly and Jeff. Sorry about that.

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 13 2004 12:47 AM)


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