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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: IVAN [Re: Unregistered User]
      #27647 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:43 PM

Quote:

FOR THOSE WHO THINK Ivan IS GOING TO N.O NEEDS TO DROP IT. IT ISNT GOING ANYWHERE NEAR THERE....




Hmmm... looks "near there" to me. That red line is exactly 45 miles from downtown N.O.



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FloridaLurker
Unregistered




Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: leetdan]
      #27648 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:43 PM

One thing we need to remember is that the rainfall that comes with hurricanes is necessary to replenish our drinking water supplies. Central Florida recently came out of a drought cycle (and now is in a flood cycle -post Frances) and all during the drought water managers kept saying that Florida desperately needed the rains associated with several big hurricanes to bring ground water supplies back to normal levels.

All I can say about trying to stop hurricanes is that it is "not nice to fool mother nature". Hurricanes, and unfortunately their accompanying destruction, are a necessary component to sustaining life as we know it. Fortunately we have the technology today to predict with some degree of certainty the location of landfall and measures can be taken to prevent the loss of life (i.e., evacuate!). We also have building codes that make our structures better withstand hurricanes, providing better protection of property.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Fujiwhara [Re: tpratch]
      #27649 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:44 PM

great post.

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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: FloridaLurker]
      #27650 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:47 PM

Extra drinking water and the like is needed especially since this beautiful state is being torn up daily for new developments and subdivisions.

We are still on water rationing for our yards in Titusville.


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Maggie'sMom]
      #27651 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:50 PM

For local info try TV stations:
WKRG
WPMI

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: FloridaLurker]
      #27652 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:51 PM

good points, and I would like to add that as nasty and terrible as they are, hurricanes are an important mechanism for transporting the excess heat from the tropics, towards the poles, where this is a deficit of heat. I think we all wish that could be accomplished without the devastation, but keeping them all as fish storms.

Your point on the drought Fla. was in is also very valid, as many times, hurricanes are the reason droughts get broken.
My problem with trying to alter mother nature and the atmosphere is that we really have no idea what other problems that could cause. For all we know, that can create more severe problems elsewhere.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: IVAN [Re: FloridaLurker]
      #27653 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:52 PM

Hey Chuck. There hasn't been a single person on this thread saying it's going ot New Orleans - including those we'd suspect most - the New Orleanians. Just had a gust into 30 and the first rains from Ivan are in process. It's a light shower, but it's great to see. I'm enjoying an Abita Purple Haze hair of the dog at the moment and wish you all well.

FrankP - last few visibles continue the 350 degree motion. I've NEVER seen a storm that jogs north as much return to NNW for such an extended period of time. I know it's been a wobbling track for the last few days, but at some point around , I really thought we'd see a NNE shunt. Were the track to continue, the latest SSD visible makes landfall appear likely in either Harrison or Jackson County, Mississippi (or western Mobile Co., AL). I've got the eye at 88.19 which puts it near the westermost plot of the last TPC projection (88.2).

Just had a couple of gusts close to 30-33mph so that tells me it's time to tie up the loose ends. I have to fill the bathtubs in case the water gets fouled here.

Scotts,

Thanks for the well wishes bra. I'm going to do my best, but I don't think it will be all that bad here. Since I'm so close to the western fringe of the storm, it's tough to say what I'm going to get. Gut call would be a gust or two into the 50's or 60's and maybe 2" of rain. If we get under the rain-shield, it could be as much as 4 or 5" with gusts into the low 70's. Gotta cross those t's all. See you after a bit.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: MrSpock]
      #27654 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:59 PM

Bingo.

We all remember the pronounced effects of El Niņo that were felt around the world - this of course was a deviation of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean by only a few degrees. Do we really want to see what happens when the Atlantic is artificially heated by our human machinations?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Jack Love
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Wash DC
Just signed up [Re: Redbird]
      #27655 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:00 PM

I've been monitoring this list now for the better part of seven days and I must say I am impressed by the knowledge of this board. I have even turned off the TV.

The Ivan-Jeanne interaction fascinates me. Though the centers of the two systems are still far apart (1000 miles?), the beginnings of upper atmosphere conjunction must be already underway. The UXMET model (link posted above) shows a very strange reaction with the remnants of Ivan being thrown back to the SW. Fascinating. But Jeanne has some catching up to do, and it seems all of the systems are moving slowly this year.

I hope all of our friends on the Gulf Coast are prepared by now. My thoughts and prayers go out to you.

This morning's Washington Post published a front-page story on the devestating effects of a direct strike on New Orleans. You can read the story on the paper's website - registration required, unfortunately - but here is a link and the first few paragraphs of the article.

WashPost artcile on NO Strike

Quote:

Awaiting Ivan in the Big Uneasy
New Orleans Girds For Major Damage

By Michael Grunwald and Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 15, 2004; Page A01

NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 14 -- Walter Maestri, an emergency manager here in America's most vulnerable metropolitan area, has 10,000 body bags ready in case a major hurricane ever hits New Orleans. As Hurricane Ivan's expected path shifted uncomfortably close to this low-lying urban soup bowl Tuesday, Maestri said he might need a lot more.

If a strong Category 4 storm such as Ivan made a direct hit, he warned, 50,000 people could drown, and this city of Mardi Gras and jazz could cease to exist.






--------------------
Stay safe.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Fujiwhara [Re: MrSpock]
      #27656 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:00 PM

Quote:

great post.




Thanks - I came across that info during a google search the other day.

I updated the post with two more paragraphs I hadn't grabbed.

Here's a link to the rest of the article.

Article about Fujiwhara in USA Today


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: IVAN [Re: Steve]
      #27657 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 PM

last nite i thought of something interesting.. other than bonnie every 3rd storm has hit fla. they have also been big hurricanes what is the name of the l storm??(charley, Frances, and now Ivan) sure hope this trend doesn't continue)

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Ken-SRQ
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27658 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 PM

Frank P.,
Looking at the Slidell radar's base velocity display, there are 71 kt winds at 14,000 ft about 50 mile offshore of Biloxi. I believe that those would mix down to about 64 kt at the surface.

Best of luck to you. The only major storm that I have been directly in the path of was Alicia, and this one is much worse.

Ken


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: IVAN [Re: andy1tom]
      #27659 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:02 PM

Bad time for Ivan to be going thru what looks to be an intensifying phase.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: leetdan]
      #27660 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:04 PM

Quote:

Bingo.

We all remember the pronounced effects of El Niņo that were felt around the world - this of course was a deviation of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean by only a few degrees. Do we really want to see what happens when the Atlantic is artificially heated by our human machinations?




How would we heat the Atlantic with human machinations?

These storms as furious as they are do serve a useful purpose. I agree that if man comes up with a way to mess with them, it would have other ramifications probably much worse than we can imagine.

I still see a Westward componant in the track so far. THe Northward turn has not completely taken place yet.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: IVAN [Re: andy1tom]
      #27661 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:05 PM

Quote:

last nite i thought of something interesting.. other than bonnie every 3rd storm has hit fla. they have also been big hurricanes what is the name of the l storm??(charley, Frances, and now Ivan) sure hope this trend doesn't continue)




That would mean the future Ms. Hurricane Lisa will be a monster.

(along with Otto and Shary and Walter...)

Edited by tpratch (Wed Sep 15 2004 01:10 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: cindy]
      #27662 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:08 PM

check you pm's cindy

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: IVAN [Re: tpratch]
      #27663 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:08 PM

like i said hope the trend doesn't continue

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Jason [Re: LI Phil]
      #27664 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:10 PM

Let's remember to keep Jason and his wife in our thoughts and prayers. Jason's wife is near her due date and his family is separated during this storm.



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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Hurricanes are Necessary [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27665 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:11 PM

Then we agree

What I'm saying is, if we ever do somehow figure out a way to alter hurricanes, then we also alter how they remove heat from the caribbean waters. Take hurricanes out of the picture, and the result is a warmer Atlantic.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: clyde w.]
      #27666 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:13 PM

thanks Clyde, good advise, and I'm keeping all options open...

Javlin just paid me a visit... first time I've met a CFHC member, what a nice guy he is...

getting our first few drops of rain... tide looks to be 3 feet above normal... wind picking up some, not much...

three of my neighbors staying and riding out the storm, we all plan to look out for each other...


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