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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
North Turn [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #27527 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:11 AM

It appears the turn to due North has occurred. I would say if you are west of where it is now, you will not receive a direct hit. That said, the storm is starting to look better again and the weather on the west side will be awful as well. For my family in Mobile, it appears they may get lucky enough to be on the west side at this point. It would only need to jog west a little though for the full fury to come into Mobile. I am now going to call for a Baldwin County AL to Pensacola landfall at 145-150 MPH.

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
jeanne radar loop [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #27528 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:12 AM

I know everyone is rightfully focused on Ivan, but here is the radar loop for Jeanne.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml :?:


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #27529 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:13 AM

I've stocked up on my bread, milk and eggs....................have you? LOL

--------------------
Kelly


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: kelcot]
      #27530 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:18 AM

Oh yeat, stocked up on the food, TP, batteries and water wings....It seems that they think that with this dang thing sitting over NW Georgia for 2-3 days, you could be seeing Noah walking down Peachtree St by Sunday...

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: kelcot]
      #27531 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:19 AM

does appear to be heading north but i think this is on schedule.

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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: jeanne radar loop [Re: alan]
      #27532 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:21 AM

Alan, I was thinking the same thing. The mets here in JAX are concentrating so much on Ivan that they said hardly anything about the one that could actually effect us.
typical -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 11:15 AM)


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carolt_melbourne
Unregistered




Linkage [Re: BillD]
      #27533 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:24 AM

Visual representation of buoys for past 12 hours:

42003
42002
index


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #27534 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:24 AM

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!

--------------------
Kelly


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: kelcot]
      #27535 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:27 AM

beer ???

YUK


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Strength [Re: kelcot]
      #27536 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:29 AM

One thing that Frances did that helped weaken it and kept it weak was that the eye fell apart. Ivan, on the other hand, has kept its core together all this time. Through most of the "negative time" yesterday and last night.

The fact that the eye is still closed, despite the dry air and other normally weakening effects makes me think it wil likely be Category 4 or high 3 at landfall. And the outflow is still strong. Ivan's being stubborn and doesn't want to weaken much, even though the pressure has risen, it hasn't fallen apart where it counts yet... the center.


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Anon
Unregistered




Re:Faster Movement <CORRECTION> [Re: Unregistered User]
      #27537 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:33 AM

My company funds the Florida Coastal Monitoring Project that is mentioned here. We also have instrumented houses in the Panhandle and that were hit by Frances and Charlie,,,

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FelixPuntaGorda
Unregistered




Re: For those who lose power.. [Re: kelcot]
      #27538 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:35 AM

Quote:

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!




If you're planning on watching football on cable after the storm, you may be waiting for a while. Here in Punta Gorda we still don't have Comcast back -- 33 days and still waiting.

I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.

Also, because I depend on cable for my internet connection, I have had to switch to dial-up. Wal-Mart (among others) has a free CD that will get you back on-line once your power & phone are restored.

In my area of Punta Gorda that was 10 days after Charley.


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Ivan Strength [Re: MikeC]
      #27539 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:36 AM

good morning mike,
do you see anything that would make you vote against the current forecast track? how far east do you think it will go when it makes the predicted ne turn? looks to me they are pretty close to the track as of 8:15 loop
click forecast points..may take a few to load

Edited by andy1tom (Wed Sep 15 2004 09:43 AM)


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: For those who lose power.. [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #27540 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:37 AM

Well, I'm in Atl so I really don't need a hurricane kit. There are quite a few people here that freak anytime there is iffy weather, though. So, I won't be surprised to see some houses boarded up and I'm sure those people have hurricane kits.

--------------------
Kelly


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Ivan Strength [Re: andy1tom]
      #27541 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:39 AM

Not Mike, but I think it goes about 35 miles esat of the forecast. Not far, but it could save Mobile from the worst of the storm.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan Strength [Re: andy1tom]
      #27542 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:39 AM

Not yet, it's about dead on with the NHC's track so far. Don't see any real reason yet to think differently. Although yeah its going to be on of those nervous track PCB is still in the cone of error as is New Orleans. Exact landfall point doesn't mean much for winds and rain, but for storm surge flooding, it means a lot. I lean toward west of mobile, slightly.


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: Ivan Strength [Re: jth]
      #27543 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:39 AM

Yeah, about 35 miles east would save mobile and slam right into pensacola.

There really are no winners regardless of where the storm hits, the eye is 50 miles wide and hurricane winds around 100 miles out and TS winds out 210 miles from that. Everyone in the cone is gonna get walloped, just some worse than others.

so I can't spell...

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!

Edited by dani (Wed Sep 15 2004 09:41 AM)


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: For those who lose power.. [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #27544 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:40 AM

Any thoughts on the disruption Jeanne may encounter while crossing Puerto Rico? What is the terrain like on that island. I'm guessing its not as mountainous as Hispaniola. But not sure about the eastern vs. western side of PR???

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Ivan Strength [Re: dani]
      #27545 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:41 AM

SORRY, but that's the way it looks right now. That could change. A wobble left or right could make a big difference at this point.

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FelixPuntaGorda
Unregistered




Re: For those who lose power.. [Re: kelcot]
      #27546 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:43 AM

By the way, I didn't mean to imply that football would be the the most important reason to have TV. You'll want to see what has happened around you. You'll need to get information about where help can be found, like FEMA and water and ice and food. Clear Channel radio is wonderful, but we sure missed having a TV.

If you're in the path, please be safe.


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