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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29517 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:44 PM

Quote:

I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as




Unless I am mistaken, its the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that decides whether to retire a name. Any country that has had a major impact by a storm can request that a name be retired.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Katie]
      #29518 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:44 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Did anybody notice if there was much of a pressure change as the circulation crossed Florida?




I am not a weather "professional" but would the horrible pressure in my head that came on late yesterday through this morning be any sign of the pressure dropping in that storm? It was horrible. I had the same during Charley just before it passed right over us. It came on so quickly and so strong, it hurt to open my eyes. Would those weather patterns have that kind of effect?

____________
Katie




Katie

Depending on the person, yes. Any change in pressure up or down can produce headaches. I've had one since yesterday. I live just outside FTL. Outside these storms we get very little pressure change during this time of year.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Domino]
      #29519 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:47 PM

>>> T-Numbers on that system behind Lisa are up to 2.0. Looks like we may have TD14.

NRL still has 93L & 94L, so probably no new TDs at 5:00.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29520 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:48 PM

Yea, I just saw that myself...ah well guess we wait around to see what happens at 11.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: HPC/TPC? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29521 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:53 PM

I realize the hand-off, but there is a piece before that where the HPC model contains projections beyond the normal 5-day TPC predictions...the storm approaching Cape Hatteras on this link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Is this 7th day forecast a TPC or HPC prediction?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Retirement of names [Re: Domino]
      #29522 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:57 PM

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be “retired” by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms.

There is an exception to the retirement rule, however. Before 1979, when the first permanent six-year storm name list began, some storm names were simply not used anymore. For example, in 1966, “Fern” was substituted for “Frieda,” and no reason was cited.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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EPA-storm watch
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Staggy]
      #29523 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:04 PM

How hurricane names are retired


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/retiram.html


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Retirement of names [Re: LI Phil]
      #29524 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:06 PM

Not asking too much:

For the explanations, you're going to have to google search some of this stuff, but here's off the top of my head:

SST - Sea Surface Temperature
SSTA - Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (departures from normal based on "x" years)
ULL - Upper Level Low
MLC - Mid Level Circulation
LLC - Low Level Circulation
TUTT - Tropical Upper Troposphereic Trough
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (1 "L" or 2?)
AO - Artic Oscillation
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
QBO - Quasi-biennial Oscillation

If you can think of any more, PM me and I'll try to get you answers.
--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks Clark. JB must have been referring to an inhouse Accuweather model.
-------------------------------------------------------
As for the $0.50 a day comment, his column was low key today in comparison to what you usually get. You also get about 20 kinds of radar, forecast models and 2 or 3 daily streaming videos from Joe which pictoralize his commentary.

Steve


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lois
Unregistered




love this view of ivan [Re: Steve-unplugged]
      #29525 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:28 PM

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...g&itype=vis

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Fletch]
      #29527 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:45 PM

Quote:

Quote:

After seeing the death count in Hispaniola, most of which was in Haiti (they can't catch a break this year), I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as well as the three we know are already gone. <snip>





I think Jeanne, Ivan and Charley will be retired. I'm not sure about Frances <snip>





I read earlier this year that "Frances" was already scheduled for retirement before the hurricane formed. France asked and was granted the request.

Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

I was wondering about Gaston retirement myself.

And I think I saw somewhere something about large death tolls in Haiti don't automatically cause hurricane name retirement. Sad.

'shana


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #29528 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:01 PM

>>> Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

And Frances in German means "welcome".

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29529 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:10 PM

Quote:

>>> Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

And Frances in German means "welcome".


...and Fances was neither French or Welcome in my neck of the woods and I suspect any other woods you might point to.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Fletch]
      #29530 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:17 PM

I can personally confirm this - my wisdom teeth, which bother me on occasion and eventually need to come out, were driving me nearly to tears for the duration of Frances. It wasn't extremely low of course, but I'm guessing it was the duration.

And Steve, I made sure to include a 'yet' for just that reason. If the forecasts I see start solidifying, and moreso if I don't hear any more talking-down about the NHC, I just might make the investment next season (hopefully by then I'll be a less-poor-than-I-am-now college student).

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29531 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:17 PM

...but before Jeanne can retire, we have to deal with the fact she is still out there, alive and kicking up a fuss and lot of confusion.

Looking at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
I can start to fear, worry about or at least note a perceived trend developing with her forecasts. There seems to be a growing trend to point North Westerly in her future path. Many of the models, while very undecided, seem to show a tendency toward the NW. I know it is *way* too early to call a landfall, but IF this *is* a trend Phil, you may have a female visitor in your area, and not the one with the fulll lips you'd hope to be getting a visit from.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29532 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:24 PM

>>> I know it is *way* too early to call a landfall, but IF this *is* a trend Phil, you may have a female visitor in your area, and not the one with the fulll lips you'd hope to be getting a visit from.

I only want that visitor if it is to spare Fl. another hit. That's why I asked scottsvb (who predicted CAT III strength) where and when he anticipated that...

Today being the anniversary of the Long Island Express, AKA Great New England Hurricane, (for interesting reading, click here), this is THE prime time for these bad boys and girls to make an appearance up further north...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29533 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:02 PM

Most models have been trending further north, even the GFDL. The UKMET and the NOGAPS have had it consitently landfalling in the Outer Banks area. I saw that article in the newspaper too, and I agree with LI phil; I only want a hurricane if it would was going to hit Florida. Maybe this could be another LI hurricane, I'm optimistic and I have to weigh that in comparison to some other things. If the ridge breaks down and propgates westward, then I think we're spared but if doesn't proprogate at all, and erodes then were in for a rude awakening. Once the possible scenario comes into play, all us LIers will be seeing a media hype beyond belief!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: HPC/TPC? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #29534 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:03 PM

The HPC and TPC both track storms while over water and come up with separate track forecasts on their own. The TPC points are the one everyone is familiar with; the HPC progs. are not as widespread but are reflected in their forecasts. They predicted Frances would travel a bit further west than the NHC did, for instance, even though they didn't pan out with that forecast.

Both groups get the chance to put out their points during the 6-hrly conference calls (4 & 10 am & pm), but the TPC has the final say for the general public. And, once inland and no longer a tropical threat, the NHC turns things over to the HPC, something they've started doing a bit more frequently (and quickly) over the past year or two.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
other storms [Re: LI Phil]
      #29535 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:05 PM

Gloria was another late September storm to hit the northeast back in 1985--Sep 27

Edited by Rabbit (Tue Sep 21 2004 05:05 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: HPC/TPC? [Re: Clark]
      #29536 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:06 PM

Thanks for the explanation,

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Make that 1985... [Re: Rabbit]
      #29537 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:07 PM

Rabbit, you type to fast...1985...believe me I REMEMBER that one...

whoops, you caught that just after I submitted this post...sorry.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 21 2004 05:08 PM)


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