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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: New Invest [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33912 - Mon Oct 11 2004 07:44 PM

Looks like there's a LLC if I'm not mistaken, I guess they feel it's going to move into a more favorable enviorment as that strong negatively tilted trough comes down. Imagine two sub-tropical storms in a row, that's a rarity.

Edit: Yep the NHC confirmed it, put it on their tropical outlook. Though it is pretty hard to tell when you don't have a visible satellite imagery available but for those who want to learn. There seems to be sufficent low level clouds from the last imagery I saw and higher clouds are obscuring the low level clouds, the eastern portion seems of the storm seems more like an ULL because the convection seems enhanced and the IR clouds are moving in unison with the visible clouds. I would wait just a bit longer to classify it if I were them, maybe once it accquired some subtropical characteristics.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Mon Oct 11 2004 08:03 PM)


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: New Invest [Re: Keith234]
      #33913 - Mon Oct 11 2004 08:37 PM

That Non-tropical low was called by NHC yesterday as "Gale Center" indicating it has a sustained winds of tropical storm force.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 11 OCT 2004


SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
WNW MID/UPPER FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N80W TO 29N75W CONTINUING ENE
INTO BERMUDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 28N58W WITH TROUGH CONTINUING SSW INTO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FEATURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 48W-53W. UPPER RIDE AXIS IS ALONG 50W WITH PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT DUE TO CIRRUS BLOWUP FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS. A
LARGE POWERFUL DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEAR 32N32W MOVING SSW INTO
THE AREA. THE LOW NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IT MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY WARM... AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE...WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N25W SW
TO 25N32W THEN ENE TO 26N44W. LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-28W WITH
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 28N-36W.


Edited by HumanCookie (Mon Oct 11 2004 08:57 PM)


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: New Invest [Re: HumanCookie]
      #33914 - Tue Oct 12 2004 02:17 PM

Thankfully, this system even if it becomes a TS or more, will likely NOT affect the US mainiland. There is plenty of sheer and the remains of several cold fronts that should provide weakness in the ridges to the north that *should* allow this system to migrate west, then north well before causing the US problems. This could be considered negative wishcasting, but seems reasonable given the current and forecast weather patterns.

The ones I worry most about is the stalled, tail-ends of fronts pushing into the Western Gulf of Mexico and developing into 'home-brew' tropical cyclones ala Matthew, but having real possibilities of becoming full fledged TS or Hurricanes. These storms tend to move E-NE and often affect the Eastern Gulf from New Orleans around the big bend to S. Florida. With luck, all of the US is out of the tropical storm business for the year, but as they say, "it ain't over till the Fat Lady sings"...which isn't likely till November-ish.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Tue Oct 12 2004 02:19 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Current Weather Overview 10/12 [Re: Ricreig]
      #33915 - Tue Oct 12 2004 04:48 PM

Nothing really of major importance to talk about now, except the extratropical storm that was once Nicole, looks very impressive with the banding features and the nimbostratus clouds popping up behind it. This storm will continue to batter the Nova Scotia area for about one more day, as the blocking is really pumping up, then it will lift up out of there as it gets picked up by some trough. Very cold air going to come in the northern plains by Novemember 9. Looks like Novemember will be a very rough month with all this surface cyclone development anticapted. Check out the farmer's almanac for the New England area, right on target with the models, creepy. Some possible development in GOM Carribbean area but not anything significant for now. For now fogetabout the tropics, but keep checking back...

Edit: Whoops, I meant Nimbostratus not altocumculus. The clouds are in nice streets indicated some strong ULW.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Tue Oct 12 2004 06:35 PM)


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: LI Phil]
      #33916 - Tue Oct 12 2004 05:42 PM

(off-topic post)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 08:43 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Thoughts from Thomas [Re: Keith234]
      #33917 - Tue Oct 12 2004 05:39 PM

Looking at the latest VIS, IR, WV satellite loops and coastal observations ex T.S. Nicole continues to lash the Canadian Maritimes with near hurricane force wind gusts. A couple of days ago she merged with an extratropical surface low and became a hybrid much like the perfect storm we know of from recent history. What is interesting is how she continues to show a tropical'ish eyewall type structure.

Looking back southward into the Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea we have a stationary frontal system. Old fronts in this region in October often times simmer for days, then come right back at us with tropical cyclones. So much like T.S. Matthew the whole of the Gulf Coast will have to keep an eye peeled for a "possible" future T.C. Otto during the next seven days.

Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Thoughts from Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33928 - Wed Oct 13 2004 07:55 AM

I don't know if any models are showing anything in the Carribean next week but a strong front for this time of year will be heading down to S. Florida. When it stalls will have to see its future.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Thoughts from Thomas [Re: LONNY307]
      #33931 - Wed Oct 13 2004 10:40 AM

New thread & better weather...head over

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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