Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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I was just joking  I keep remembering how the told a little fib about a weakening Andrew to keep public awarness up.
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cheers
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Matthurricane
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Interesting!!! 
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Come join tropical weathers message board!!!
http://s2.invisionfree.com/Tropical_weathers/index.php
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
ULL ??
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Clark
Meteorologist
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It's a deep layer low (i.e. pretty much extending through the depth of the troposphere) that has been sitting and spinning for awhile now. Definitely not anything tropical or subtropical, though -- check out the frontal band to the east and you'll see an system. Cyclone phase analyses show a developing cold core system as it moves off to the north and east with time; could be a player for England in a few days if the current pattern ever shifts.
Interesting to note -- the system that was near Bermuda last week (this might be the same one; I've been off forecasting for Barrow, AK and Buenos Aires, Argentina this weekend so I'm not sure) had a shallow warm-core for a period of time last week. The wind field never contracted, however, and the convective pattern was never indicative of anything near subtropical structure -- so that goes to show you that yes, there can be (and often are) warm-core cyclones....in fact, some of the strongest systems tend to grow during a warm-core phase in their lifetime. But I digress.
SSTs have a long ways to go before we really need to be peeking that way....though with a subtropical storm in April 2003 and a South Atlantic storm in March 2004, why not something again in February 2005? Anything can happen, but I'm going to say pretty confidently that we won't see a storm this month.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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A sound assessment indeed, Clark.
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cheers
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
A sound assessment indeed, Clark.
Yes, Jeffrey, Clark IS a meterologist, so I would say he knows of what he speaks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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ok 'li' phil.
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cheers
Edited by danielw (Sat Feb 12 2005 04:09 AM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hi Everyone,
I have been working recently on my Hurricane Season 2004 website. For those not familiar, I live in Central Florida and suffered through 3 of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida last year, with quite extensive damage to my property and surrounding neighborhoods. I spent a lot of time during August and September filming the resulting storm impact to my local area. I got the idea to present the results in an un-official website for those interested to experience on a small scale the events that we endured last season.
Heres the url to the site:
Hurricane Season 2004
Living here in the Orlando area, needless to say, the hurricanes dominated the newspaper headlines. In addition to the website, I have been putting together a scrapbook of articles from the Orlando Sentinel covering last year's hurricanes. I have now begun to scan the scrapbook and incorporate it into the hurricane website.
I invite everyone to check out the work in progress. As of right now, I have completed 30 pages of the scrapbook, with much more to come.
Here's the link to the scrapbook portion of the site:
Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook
I'd love to hear comments and any suggestions regarding any aspect of the site. Hopefully, the 2005 season will not come close to repeating history..but some of the early indicators point to a season with above normal activity. Just this week, a statement by Stacy Stewart of the reported that the early weather patterns are shaping up very similar to 2004. He stated that, while 4 hurricanes are not expected again in Florida, it should be expected that possibly 2 intense storms may strike the state this year.
Sigh,........I am still sitting here fighting with insurance over the damage. I'll still not have my repairs completed before tropical threats begin anew...... 
--Lou
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I heard a blurb on the radio this morning stating that the Bermuda High will be in place again this season making it another active season.
Is this speculation?, or is there hard evidence that this is the case.
You know how the media loves to twist things to sell the news.
Thanks
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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It could be for a good part of the summer, but in order for the SE ridge to be in the SE then you need a trof west of Hawaii, and a general westward track of typhoons in the west pacific. Keep in mind the southeast ridge does not determine how many hurricane's form, but how many are more likely to hit land.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Here is a link to the news story about the Bermunda High
http://www.local10.com/weather/4181233/detail.html
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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"If the pattern holds in place, it could help make for another active hurricane season. Forecasters are always quick to remind residents that how many storms form is not nearly as important as being prepared in case one of them is a killer storm like Andrew."
I don't think this current pattern will hold after winter is over. Since the big factor for the ridge in the SE or Bermuda is determined by the trof in relation to Hawaii; and since the el nino has reached a neutral state and some models are hinting at a la nina-I might have the wrong idea about next year. For worse it might seem so...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Anyone who hasn't noticed Hurricane Alley's 2005 forecast can see it here, they are updating it monthly.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/forecast2005FEB.htm
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Hi Everyone,
I have been working recently on my Hurricane Season 2004 website. For those not familiar, I live in Central Florida and suffered through 3 of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida last year, with quite extensive damage to my property and surrounding neighborhoods. I spent a lot of time during August and September filming the resulting storm impact to my local area. I got the idea to present the results in an un-official website for those interested to experience on a small scale the events that we endured last season.
--Lou
Lou, Thanks for sharing this with us. Your web site brings back some horrible memories for me (I live just south of you in E Orlando near 50&436) and worse, live in a mobile home) Your hard work shows. I hope you will leave this site up for quite a while. It is a place I can refer 'wishcasters' to when this coming season, I see or hear someone saying "I just *love* hurricanes...they are so exciting". Balderdash...your site vividly shows not excitement, but many personal tragedies. The complancency of living well away from beaches was shattered for millions here in Central Floriday. Thanks for documenting it so well.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I was kind of amazed when I saw that article, particularly with quotes. While persistent ridge/trough features are common with various weather patterns, it is hard to predict 5-8 months out where these ridges will be. For one, we don't have a really good handle on the sea state in the Eastern Pacific -- some think it's a weak El Nino event, others say neutral -- and that's just one of many factors going into the forecast.
Beyond forecasting whether or not the subtropical ridge is going to be in a position to lead to storms moving like they did in 2004 is the intensity as well as exact extent of the ridge. A slightly weaker ridge than in 2004 would lead to more storms recurving into the ridge and affecting the Outer Banks; one slightly further east would've sent more storms offshore, while one further west would've sent more storms into the northern Gulf coast after hitting Florida. There's no skill in predicting that this far out other than climatology - which, as we've seen, holds little skill in predicting an extreme event such as last season.
I could go into some of the processes that strengthen ridges and determine a hurricane's movement, but I think it's a bit beyond the scope of the article & argument. I guess what I'm trying to say is that yes, while it is possible something like last summer sets up, it's no more likely than a complete pattern shift taking place and a scenario like 1995 setting up. It's a bit of sensationalization, yes. There is some fact behind it, but the skill is very negligible.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Lou, Thanks for sharing this with us. Your web site brings back some horrible memories for me (I live just south of you in E Orlando near 50&436) and worse, live in a mobile home) Your hard work shows. I hope you will leave this site up for quite a while. It is a place I can refer 'wishcasters' to when this coming season, I see or hear someone saying "I just *love* hurricanes...they are so exciting". Balderdash...your site vividly shows not excitement, but many personal tragedies. The complancency of living well away from beaches was shattered for millions here in Central Floriday. Thanks for documenting it so well.
Thanks for the compliments on my site. I have been doing a photo study around the Orlando area to document how Central Florida is recovering from last years' hurricanes. I have posted the results on my Hurricane 2004 Website. You may view the pictures at:
6 Months After
Anyone who lives in the Orlando area knows that, for the most part, the commercial areas have nearly completed their repairs from the storms. The only lingering damage are the many business signs that were blown out by the high winds. While many businesses have replaced the signage, some work remains.
The residential areas, on the other-hand, have struggled to some extent. There remain a large number of homes throughout the area with roofs that have tarps covering damage. Many yards continue to have downed trees,...or the huge uprooted stump remains. There are still a lot of downed fences in yards. I found that, in some cases, homes were sitting abandoned...left in the condition they were the day after the storm. Still others have been completely bulldozed, with "For Sale" signs left on the vacant land.
Speaking from my own personal experience, I know it is still near impossible to get a roofing or fence contractor. Most companies continue to have months-long backlogs. I have been embroiled in an ongoing battle with my local town's govt offices who are threatening me with $100 a day fines if I do not get my fence replaced around my backyard pool. I have resorted to presenting city hall with signed statements from fence contractors to proove I am not sandbagging the work.
All in all, this has been a trying and stressful year, working through multiple damage / insurance claims. If 2005 comes anything close to last year, I think many will throw- in-the-towel and move out of Florida.
--Lou
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Ricreig
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Quote:
All in all, this has been a trying and stressful year, working through multiple damage / insurance claims. If 2005 comes anything close to last year, I think many will throw- in-the-towel and move out of Florida.
Lou, I hope it doesn't come to that. I was born here in Orlando, in what was then called 'Orlando General Hospital'. It is now know as Orange Regional Medical Center. Since then, like the hospital, there has been much growth and many changes. Many of the changes, like the remains of TSFH (tm) (the season from hell) are not good, but what remains is well worth fighting for. We've survived Disney, Universal, Sea World and beach erosion. Charlie and his relatives damaged us all, severely. Both physically and mentall. Unfortunately, storms like Charlie are a fact of life, as is growth. The good and the bad are a fact of almost any human or natural activity. We must take advantage of the good and minimize the bad when we can. We can, and must adapt to changes, including ones like Charlie. The best thing I have seen as a result of TSFH is few people now laugh and joke about storms, they now take them seriously. A result of this is increased awareness of such storms and not a few have tried to educate themselves on the subject. The end result of this will save many more lives than were lost. Those that died or suffered injury or loss did not do so in vain because many more will be spared because they will take heed next time and react in time.
Don't leave us even if we do get more storms. Make what is left behind even better than before. I'll try and do my part. Your being here in this forum suggests you are and will continue to do yours. Your site and the work you invest in it go a long way to further the education of those still not convinced or who are new and inexperienced. Keep it going!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just a couple of things to remember:
1. Please post your article in the proper Forum - I had to move quite a few posts this morning.
2. Remember that this site is not a chat room, so one-line posts are generally not appropriate. Don't just say 'I agree' - instead tell us 'why' you agree.
Thanks,
ED
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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in the 's satelite imagery page, they've trimmed the atlantic basin satelite to just the western atlantic. same resolution, just a smaller picture. that was my usual source for satelite shots in the eastern and central atlantic.. why'd they have to go and do that?
HF 1815z16february
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Perhaps its a bandwidth issue, however , the Navy images out of Monterey still cover the full basin and are available at:
Latest Atlantic IR Satellite Image
Visible and Water Vapor images are also available. Just click on the thumbnail image for a full-scale picture. The images can be motion-sequenced.
Cheers,
ED
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